The Pressly Paradox: Why Selling Relievers Is a Precarious Path

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Trade deadline season is fully upon us, and the Minnesota Twins are considered by many (including opposing scouts who are flocking to Target Field) to be "open for business." Naturally, the team's assortment of controllable high-octane relief arms are known to be drawing a large share of the interest.  

There is an undeniable logic behind selling high on relief pitchers at the deadline. Contending buyers feel a sense of urgency to shore up their rosters for the stretch, and bullpen help is always in high demand. This leads front offices to pay a premium for widely sought targets. Add in the volatility of relief pitchers in general, and you see why big offers can prove hard to resist.

Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax are undoubtedly drawing a steady steam of calls with the trade deadline now just days away. Probably Brock Stewart and Louie Varland as well. All are high performers with excellent raw stuff, all are free of injury flags at the moment, and all are controllable for multiple years beyond 2025. The Twins are in position to cash in right now in a big way, if they so choose. 

Plenty of teams have benefited immensely in the past from taking advantage of moments like this. The most famous recent example would have to be Kansas City sending Aroldis Chapman to Texas in 2023, one month ahead of the deadline, receiving back a left-handed pitcher named Cole Ragans. The move worked out in the short-term for the Rangers, who won the World Series, but Ragans became Kansas City's ace almost immediately, helping propel them to the playoffs in 2024 for the first time in nine seasons. Seven years earlier, Chapman was also involved in a memorable win/win deadline swap, going from New York to the Cubs (where he also won a World Series) in exchange for Gleyber Torres. 

 

The latter example is probably more pertinent to Minnesota's current situation, because back in 2016 Chapman was 28 and at the height of his powers. Even then, he was only a rental — the Yankees would re-sign him the following offseason — but New York still managed to score a prospect on his way to consensus top-10 global status. It took less than two years for Torres to become an All-Star regular in New York.

Those are the kinds of precedents that illustrate why Minnesota's front office would be foolish not to keep an open mind about trading someone like Durán or Jax. The idea of acquiring a game-changing talent who could enter the mix within a relatively short timeframe is enticing, and Minnesota's probably got enough bullpen depth to survive without one of them, especially with Varland's emergence.

But there's a downside and a cost to these types of moves also. Twins fans have seen that, up close and personally.

I've written before about the Ryan Pressly trade, which I consider to be the most regrettable move this front office ever made. In 2018, Pressly was not quite fully established as an elite reliever but well on his way, with spectacular swing-and-miss numbers and swing rates. Still under control beyond the 2018 season, Pressly was an alluring target in the same vein as Durán or Jax — especially to an analytically driven team like Houston.

The Astros made an offer that Derek Falvey and the Twins decided they could not refuse: hard-throwing right-hander Jorge Alcalá and athletic outfielder Gilberto Celestino. Neither of those prospects amounted to much in a Minnesota uniform. 

Meanwhile, Pressly blossomed into an instant bullpen ace for the Astros. He posted a 0.77 ERA the rest of the way in 2018. More painfully, in 2019, which would have been his last year under control with the Twins, Pressly was an All-Star who dominated the late innings as Houston won 107 games and the pushed the World Series to seven games. That year's Twins team, of course, was the Bomba Squad, which one 101 games and the division but fell short in the postseason, in part, because their relievers posted a 9.00 ERA against the Yankees. 

Man, could that 2019 team have used Ryan Pressly. I don't want to overstate things but it very well might have been the difference between getting swept out of the first round and making a deep run in the playoffs. That's a missed opportunity that will always gnaw away at me. Especially because the very next year, Minnesota's bullpen once again flopped in the playoffs, this time against Pressly's Astros as they cruised to yet another ALCS. While the Twins watched their season slip away with a 37-year-old Sergio Romo on the mound in crunch time, Pressly posted a 2.46 ERA and tallied four saves for the Astros as they marched through October yet again.

 

I share these cautionary tales to underscore why trading any of their top relievers is a precarious path for the Twins, and far from a no-brainer even if the offers feel overwhelming. Dominant late-inning relievers are in short supply, and can make a difference when the stakes are highest like few other players. We've already seen that in the cases of Durán and Jax, whose contributions in tight games were instrumental when the Twins finally broke through and won a playoff series in 2023.

I'm personally not quite ready to give up on this 2025 season, as sour as the outlook may be right now. I fully understand why anyone would be, including the front office as they evaluate their options and their future. But 2026 is very much still in play, with all the requisite pieces in place to put an aspirational World Series contender on the field, led by Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis and a hopefully rebounding Carlos Correa. Having a stable of high-end relievers to support this group will be vital to maximizing the opportunity. Subtract from it at your own risk.

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[In My La Z boy]

Thank you. My sentiments exactly. We already have the 2015 Royals bullpen. That was a critical component of their WS title team. Don't wreck the best area of the squad trying to fix the other areas, especially for prospects. Especially when both Jax & Duran are still controlled for 2 more years. Will we get less for them in December than today, probably not. No hurry here, no panic selling please.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, In My La Z boy said:

Thank you. My sentiments exactly. We already have the 2015 Royals bullpen. That was a critical component of their WS title team. Don't wreck the best area of the squad trying to fix the other areas, especially for prospects. Especially when both Jax & Duran are still controlled for 2 more years. Will we get less for them in December than today, probably not. No hurry here, no panic selling please.

Isn't this sentiment exactly WHY they should get two top 100 prospects if they are going to trade either?

They have been good at building relievers. If they can get two top 100 prospects (meaning you are asking double what their value is in baseballtradevalues) then you go for that. If teams aren't meeting that asking price, then you hold onto them.

[Patzky]

Fans will be understandably disappointed if we don't sell. But we don't have to.

 

[jorgenswest]

In 2018 they were around 8 games under at the deadline. It was probably hard to foresee the turnaround coming in 2019. They had control of Pressly and they really needed him in 2019. They signed Blake Parker. He failed and was released by the deadline. They then needed to trade assets for Sergio Romo and Sam Dyson. 

They should have learned that it is far easier to trade a good late inning reliever than acquire one. 

[Vanimal46]

The only way I’m trading Duran or Jax in the next week is if they return a young C or 1B who’s already in the majors. Or a C/1B who could be in the majors but they’re blocked - like Joe Ryan in Tampa. Beyond that, I have little to no interest trading either one of them for prospects who have an ETA of 2027 and beyond. 

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

The only way I’m trading Duran or Jax in the next week is if they return a young C or 1B who’s already in the majors. Or a C/1B who could be in the majors if they’re blocked - like Joe Ryan in Tampa. Beyond that, I have little to no interest trading either one of them for prospects who have an ETA of 2027 and beyond. 

I'd rather wait for the off season, when there are more bidders, and I agree with you on the minimum get.

As for the OP and premise, I just wonder how people think this team is getting fixed w/o trading valuable players to fill the massive offensive holes here. 

[old nurse]

2019 playoffs, Ryan would have been set up to Rogers. The games were lost long before they were needed. 

[In My La Z boy]

14 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Isn't this sentiment exactly WHY they should get two top 100 prospects if they are going to trade either?

They have been good at building relievers. If they can get two top 100 prospects (meaning you are asking double what their value is in baseballtradevalues) then you go for that. If teams aren't meeting that asking price, then you hold onto them.

We're not developing hitters Cory. Falvey can't seem to make it happen. I'd love 2 top 100's for Jax, but can we develop them? 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just now, In My La Z boy said:

We're not developing hitters Cory. Falvey can't seem to make it happen. I'd love 2 top 100's for Jax, but can we develop them? 

Lewis when healthy would disagree. Buxton this year would disagree. Keaschall I think would disagree. Wallner is still up for debate, but Jeffers (compared to other catchers) would mostly disagree. I don't know what happened with Correa, but just broadly saying they don't develop hitters I think is incorrect.

[Dman]

6 minutes ago, old nurse said:

2019 playoffs, Ryan would have been set up to Rogers. The games were lost long before they were needed. 

Agreed! Did we even score any runs in those games?  No reliever needed IIRC certainly not a closer.

And as an aside were the Twins going to extend him?  They don't generally pay big bucks for relievers. So they would have lost him for nothing anyway.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Dman said:

Agreed! Did we even score any runs in those games?  No reliever needed IIRC certainly not a closer.

So, the same problem as now......hmmmm....I sense a pattern. 

[old nurse]

2 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Lewis when healthy would disagree. Buxton this year would disagree. Keaschall I think would disagree. Wallner is still up for debate, but Jeffers (compared to other catchers) would mostly disagree. I don't know what happened with Correa, but just broadly saying they don't develop hitters I think is incorrect.

Correa is soon to be 31. With middle infielders it seems that is whe some start the decline. The other possibility is he is plying through something minor that is hampering him. The other real possibility is he needs glasses 

[In My La Z boy]

5 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Lewis when healthy would disagree. Buxton this year would disagree. Keaschall I think would disagree. Wallner is still up for debate, but Jeffers (compared to other catchers) would mostly disagree. I don't know what happened with Correa, but just broadly saying they don't develop hitters I think is incorrect.

Not your best effort Cory. When healthy doesn't count. Keaschall hasn't got a cup of coffee yet. Got nothing on Wallner yet. Buxton's not Falvey's. Tell me a non-pitching draft pick of Falvey's he's developed into something at Target Field for even one full season? Jeffers maybe the only one? I can't think of another quality bat?

[Cory Engelhardt]

5 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

Not your best effort Cory. When healthy doesn't count. Keaschall hasn't got a cup of coffee yet. Got nothing on Wallner yet. Buxton's not Falvey's. Tell me a non-pitching draft pick of Falvey's he's developed into something at Target Field for even one full season? Jeffers maybe the only one? I can't think of another quality bat?

First, you are taking a super narrow view at all of this. How does Buxton NOT count as Falvey's, what with Falvey being the team president and all? I can't wrap my head around that.

And then just brushing off that Keaschall hasn't had a cup of coffee yet even though he dominated in the minors? 

Wallner I agree that we don't know truly what we have. But the extended time with an .800 OPS over the course of multiple years shows me something is in there. 

Lewis certainly when healthy has shown to be above average. 

You can fill a glass more than a 1/3rd of the way. You seem to be someone who can't even fill it half empty.

[arby58]

18 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Lewis when healthy would disagree. Buxton this year would disagree. Keaschall I think would disagree. Wallner is still up for debate, but Jeffers (compared to other catchers) would mostly disagree. I don't know what happened with Correa, but just broadly saying they don't develop hitters I think is incorrect.

Right - and you can't blame Correa on Twins development staff. He was a former MVP, Rookie of the Year, and All Star when the Twins signed him at 28 years old.

[Dman]

While I don't completely agree with the OP's narrative about Pressley I will say I think Duran is a rare Freak arm and is going to be a dominant closer for a long time.  I don't think he is completely replaceable.  Certainly not easily replaceable, but the Twins can develop other arms for the role and not be too far off.  Jax and Varland look like candidates to mitigate that potential loss.  

To the other point the article brought up.  This pen as constructed is pretty dominant right now.  Taking pieces out could change the pen from a strength to a weakness again and I don't think this team is too far away from contending for next year.

So if they do trade they had best make sure it was worth it.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I think this argument really works as a reason not to trade Duran. Not so much for Jax. Three of the last four years Jax’s actual numbers have been much less impressive than his peripherals, and he is close to leading the American league in negative impact on expected wins or WPA. Frankly, the numbers are similar to our old friend Emilio Pagan when he was here. For example, his blown save Thursday changed the Twins from an 80% win probability to a loss so the high overall number tells you he’s been in a lot of high leverage situations, but does not have a particularly strong record in those situations. Frankly, that complies with what I think I see; he’s usually good, always great against weaker teams, tends to get beat up by better teams. 
 

That’s why it’s my view that the Twins should only consider trading Duran for an already established MLB middle of the order bat but should be willing to entertain a high-end prospect return for Jax. Why? The chances of the Twins trading for prospects that become as valuable as Duran is pretty small. Conversely, Jax tends to be overvalued by us fans, and as much more easily replaceable, so it’s worth taking a chance on a highly rated prospects.

[In My La Z boy]

3 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

First, you are taking a super narrow view at all of this. How does Buxton NOT count as Falvey's, what with Falvey being the team president and all? I can't wrap my head around that.

And then just brushing off that Keaschall hasn't had a cup of coffee yet even though he dominated in the minors? 

Wallner I agree that we don't know truly what we have. But the extended time with an .800 OPS over the course of multiple years shows me something is in there. 

Lewis certainly when healthy has shown to be above average. 

You can fill a glass more than a 1/3rd of the way. You seem to be someone who can't even fill it half empty.

Not narrow at all. You draft and develop. Falvey neither drafted or developed Buxton. Falvey hasn't developed anyone into anything...yet. Maybe Keaschall, Maybe Wallner, Maybe Larnach, but none of them yet. Lewis hasn't completed a season yet, not even one season of him. That's not development. I'm suggesting if Falvey trades Jax or Duran for top 100 prospects, where is there any proof he knows how to develop that talent into a major league star? 

[In My La Z boy]

1 minute ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I think this argument really works as a reason not to trade Duran. Not so much for Jax. Three of the last four years Jax’s actual numbers have been much less impressive than his peripherals, and he is close to leading the American league in negative impact on expected wins or WPA. Frankly, the numbers are similar to our old friend Emilio Pagan when he was here. For example, his blown save Thursday changed the Twins from an 80% win probability to a loss so the high overall number tells you he’s been in a lot of high leverage situations, but does not have a particularly strong record in those situations. Frankly, that complies with what I think I see; he’s usually good, always great against weaker teams, tends to get beat up by better teams. 
 

That’s why it’s my view that the Twins should only consider trading Duran for an already established MLB middle of the order bat but should be willing to entertain a high-end prospect return for Jax. Why? The chances of the Twins trading for prospects that become as valuable as Duran is pretty small. Conversely, Jax tends to be overvalued by us fans, and as much more easily replaceable, so it’s worth taking a chance on a highly rated prospects.

You changed my mind on this the other day and you are correct. 

[arby58]

10 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

Not your best effort Cory. When healthy doesn't count. Keaschall hasn't got a cup of coffee yet. Got nothing on Wallner yet. Buxton's not Falvey's. Tell me a non-pitching draft pick of Falvey's he's developed into something at Target Field for even one full season? Jeffers maybe the only one? I can't think of another quality bat?

Blaming player development on the GM seems odd. He drafts them, he doesn't get on the field and do fielding practice with them. Also keep in mind that his first draft would have been 2017, so those players don't even get started mostly until 2018. 2020 was a wasted year for development as well. Several position players they drafted are high on their prospect board (Jenkins, Keaschall, Emma, Culpepper). The jury is also still out on guys like Lewis, Wallner, and Lee as well.

[Cory Engelhardt]

7 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

Not narrow at all. You draft and develop. Falvey neither drafted or developed Buxton. Falvey hasn't developed anyone into anything...yet. Maybe Keaschall, Maybe Wallner, Maybe Larnach, but none of them yet. Lewis hasn't completed a season yet, not even one season of him. That's not development. I'm suggesting if Falvey trades Jax or Duran for top 100 prospects, where is there any proof he knows how to develop that talent into a major league star? 

I still think Kirilloff without that crazy injury would have been a player. Snakebit for sure.

This is also why it's important to trust your development staff. I have to imagine they are targeting players who either have already debuted or are super close. Can't imagine if they trade someone like Jax that they will target players in low A.

[In My La Z boy]

7 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Blaming player development on the GM seems odd. He drafts them, he doesn't get on the field and do fielding practice with them. Also keep in mind that his first draft would have been 2017, so those players don't even get started mostly until 2018. 2020 was a wasted year for development as well. Several position players they drafted are high on their prospect board (Jenkins, Keaschall, Emma, Culpepper). The jury is also still out on guys like Lewis, Wallner, and Lee as well.

Falvey hires and sets the organizational development team. They work for him, at his direction and do his bidding. What he wants, and the direction for each player drafted. Sorry, I am a boss, and every manager that works for me gets specific direction to establish with each employee. Ultimately it is on me when individual team members don't perform. Development is downstream from drafting, there are layers in-between, and every layer reports to Falvey.

[TwinsDr2021]

2 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Blaming player development on the GM seems odd. He drafts them, he doesn't get on the field and do fielding practice with them. Also keep in mind that his first draft would have been 2017, so those players don't even get started mostly until 2018. 2020 was a wasted year for development as well. Several position players they drafted are high on their prospect board (Jenkins, Keaschall, Emma, Culpepper). The jury is also still out on guys like Lewis, Wallner, and Lee as well.

Honest question, since the current FO got here what player have they acquired (drafted, signed  or traded for as a minor league player has played in more than 100 games in a year? (Jeffers 1 (122), Larnach 1 (112),  Julien 1, (109), if you want to include Miranda who was a 2nd round pick the year prior 2, 121,125)

Am I missing anybody? Who is blame for that complete lack of anything good and lasting? 

I love the prospect as much as anybody but until they have played a couple years they don't count. 

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, In My La Z boy said:

Thank you. My sentiments exactly. We already have the 2015 Royals bullpen. That was a critical component of their WS title team. Don't wreck the best area of the squad trying to fix the other areas, especially for prospects. Especially when both Jax & Duran are still controlled for 2 more years. Will we get less for them in December than today, probably not. No hurry here, no panic selling please.

What good is a 2015 Royals bullpen when your starting nine isn't good enough to get them leads?

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

The only way I’m trading Duran or Jax in the next week is if they return a young C or 1B who’s already in the majors. Or a C/1B who could be in the majors but they’re blocked - like Joe Ryan in Tampa. Beyond that, I have little to no interest trading either one of them for prospects who have an ETA of 2027 and beyond. 

Is it that restrictive or are you just not on board for A ball dudes?  Like...is someone in AA knocking on the door of AAA off as a possible guy?  Or someone who still needs seasoning in AAA and is looking at a 2026 promotion off the table?

I'm out on top 100 dudes in A ball.  But I'd deal them both if we're getting talented position players in AA or AAA.

[Vanimal46]

20 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Is it that restrictive or are you just not on board for A ball dudes?  Like...is someone in AA knocking on the door of AAA off as a possible guy?  Or someone who still needs seasoning in AAA and is looking at a 2026 promotion off the table?

I'm out on top 100 dudes in A ball.  But I'd deal them both if we're getting talented position players in AA or AAA.

The players coming back would have to be ready to go for us opening day 2026. Trading for guys who are 2 or more years away will be a disservice to the dozen players we have with an expiring contract in 2027

[HerbieFan]

100% agree Nick.  I'd like to see them sell off the expiring contracts.  The list of pitchers they have under contract for next season is a very good group.  My frustration is this.  No matter what happens with the pitching staff, any success is going to depend on the development of hitters.  And I'm not sure I can name one, save for Buxton, who has developed in this organization, under this regime, and become just a really good, consistent hitter.

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, In My La Z boy said:

Not narrow at all. You draft and develop. Falvey neither drafted or developed Buxton. Falvey hasn't developed anyone into anything...yet. Maybe Keaschall, Maybe Wallner, Maybe Larnach, but none of them yet. Lewis hasn't completed a season yet, not even one season of him. That's not development. I'm suggesting if Falvey trades Jax or Duran for top 100 prospects, where is there any proof he knows how to develop that talent into a major league star? 

You can probably cross Larnach off that list, at least in pencil. He's at best an average bat at a premium offensive position, he plays subpar defense, and he requires a RH handcuff. Wallner (with more power but probably worse defense) is a repeat performance next year away from being in a similar boat. Ideally you're not paying guys arbitration for replacement level production. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

2 hours ago, In My La Z boy said:

Falvey hires and sets the organizational development team. They work for him, at his direction and do his bidding. What he wants, and the direction for each player drafted. Sorry, I am a boss, and every manager that works for me gets specific direction to establish with each employee. Ultimately it is on me when individual team members don't perform. Development is downstream from drafting, there are layers in-between, and every layer reports to Falvey.

I understand the point you are trying to make, but I don't completely buy the argument.  There are a handful of layers between the GM and the player. The GM isn't sitting in the cage at 10:00 pm working with the players. Also, a great coach can still fail in bringing a player along, players fail for multiple reasons that have nothing to do with coaching. Player development is so much a crap shoot.

Joe Ryan was drafted in the 7th round. Should every team in MLB fire their GM for passing on him in the draft?

I understand that your mind is set. Nothing I say will change your view of Falvey and the fact you think he needs to be fired. I just have them much lower on the "blame totem pole" than you do.