The Unending Struggles of Royce Lewis Are Tough to Decipher

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Jim Rassol-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins are a team of extremes: from hot to cold, from impressive to embarrassing, from confident to bamboozled. There never seems to be much middle ground, or at least, there hasn't been for the past couple of seasons.

No one singularly embodies this trait quite like Royce Lewis. Not so long ago he was one of the most feared and revered sluggers in the game, showcasing his prowess on the biggest stage. Now he's turned into one of the league's weakest, least powerful hitters. 

It's almost impossible to comprehend: Dating back to August 13th of last year, a span of his past 85 games played, Lewis ranks 327th out of 331 players (200+ PA) in slugging percentage, ahead of only Matt Thaiss, Nick Allen, Josh Rojas and our guy Christian Vázquez. Not the company you want to be grouped with. No player during this time period has more at-bats than Lewis with a worse OPS. In 321 plate appearances, he has three home runs.

Now, let's juxtapose that against the player Royce Lewis was BEFORE he started doing the slump thing. From the date of his major-league debut (May 6, 2022) through August 12th of 2024, Lewis ranked third among all MLB players (400+ PA) in slugging percentage at .589, trailing only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. He crushed 32 homers in 397 plate appearances.

 

An astonishing drop-off from a 26-year-old player who should ostensibly in the heart of his physical prime. Of course, by this point we're not covering new ground by mentioning the "what" (Lewis has been in a spiral for nearly a full calendar year); what matters is figuring out the "why." For the Minnesota Twins, the stakes are incredibly high.

Their underperforming offensive unit is threatening to sabotage a rare moment of opportunity for the Twins. They led the American League in pitching fWAR in the first half, and Byron Buxton is playing at a legitimately MVP-caliber level, putting forth one of the best seasons in franchise history. To be three games below .500, and staring at an uphill battle to reach the playoffs, in spite of these factors is pretty outrageous and unacceptable.

Needless to say there have been plenty of culprits in dragging this team down, and no one player is responsible. Carlos Correa has obviously been an issue, nut his struggles look quaint by comparison to Lewis; Correa's sub-par OPS is 120 points higher, and he at least contributes as a defensive standout at a premium position.

The inescapable reality with Lewis is that he's a gaping void of production for the Twins, one they cannot afford, and it's made all the more vexing when you consider his potential (proven!) impact at the opposite extreme. Targeting significant acquisitions at the deadline is likely a pipe dream to begin with, but no pickup could even remotely compare to the transformative effect of Lewis at the height of his powers. 

He's so far from that right now. On the surface, de doesn't really seem to be making meaningful progress in the right direction. A modest hot streak in 10 June games (.367 average, .990 OPS) has given way to a .540 OPS in July, and Lewis is now one-for-his-last-14. 

On the one hand, you can make a case that Lewis has been extraordinarily unlucky. He's putting the ball in play a ton and just getting no results, with a .237 BABIP that is near the bottom of the league. His underlying metrics, per Statcast, are really not that bad: Royce's xwOBA (.337) – while still far from amazing – is 80 points higher than his dreadful .257 wOBA. 

The quality-of-contact measurements also paint a pretty favorable picture of momentum, in contrast to Lewis's stagnating offensive production. His rolling xwOBA has been steadily creeping up over his past 100 plate appearances:

On the other hand ... these narratives get a little stale and unsatisfying when you're actually watching the games, seeing Lewis churn outs as games slip away and postseason hopes grow dimmer. He's definitely had some hits taken away by the defense, but Lewis doesn't really look like a player who's raking and getting robbed. He looks unstable in the box, tentative in his approach, and extremely vulnerable to the whims of opposing pitchers. For all the ups and downs, all the luck-based metrics, that hasn't changed all year. 

The Twins' strategy with Lewis has been to wait and hope for a breakthrough. When he suffered a minor hamstring injury in mid-June, the team had an opportunity to take a beat, and perhaps send Lewis on an extended rehab to the spring training complex where he could focus on strengthening and physical reset.. They opted instead to rush him through a quick Triple-A rehab, returning him after two weeks, and his results have been much the same. 

Maybe that's only sensible. The Twins understand that Lewis is one of the few individuals with an outsized capability to save their wayward season. But right now he's sinking it, and no one involved appears to have much of an idea how to straighten him out other than crossing their fingers and hoping. So I guess I'll do the same.

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[tony&rodney]

Drafted #1-1, there is no question that the flurry of home runs and bubbly personality made Lewis a total darling to Twins fans. Baseball can be cruel and he can  almost, not quite, be compared to his fellow rising stars of 2023 teammate - Edouard Julien. 

Lewis looks like his stability is compromised: at the plate, running, and in the field. If an athlete doesn't have full cooperation of their legs, performance is going to be difficult. It seems like Royce has been trying to compensate for a lack of stability from his lower half which brought him a host of new challenges. Sure hope he can get well. I don't have an answer except that i think he needs to be 100% healthy to rebuild his baseball skills. I wish him luck.

[mikelink45]

It is sad to see him struggle like this and it has taken away the hope he gave us when he first became a Twin, but if we put this in another context, what is happening with the Twins coaches?  We have almost a coach for each player, yet Correa is struggling and causing us to wonder what his final years on the contract will be.  We have Wallner who looked so good he was going to lead off and now we question our judgment.  Larnach has stagnated, Lee does not look like the wonderkid we anticipated.  Vasquez has spiraled down to the bottom of the barrel, Articles question France's value and Clemens is streaky and offers promise without follow through.  

What is the reason this lineup has fallen so far below expectations?  Without Buxton, Castro and Bader all preseason expectations have been shattered. 

[Brandon27]

I think a nice stay in saint paul for awhile would be best for him just get his mind right 

[Parfigliano]

Not hard to understand.  Flash.  Pan.

MLB full of this.

 

[Parfigliano]

45 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

It is sad to see him struggle like this and it has taken away the hope he gave us when he first became a Twin, but if we put this in another context, what is happening with the Twins coaches?  We have almost a coach for each player, yet Correa is struggling and causing us to wonder what his final years on the contract will be.  We have Wallner who looked so good he was going to lead off and now we question our judgment.  Larnach has stagnated, Lee does not look like the wonderkid we anticipated.  Vasquez has spiraled down to the bottom of the barrel, Articles question France's value and Clemens is streaky and offers promise without follow through.  

What is the reason this lineup has fallen so far below expectations?  Without Buxton, Castro and Bader all preseason expectations have been shattered. 

Organizationally.  Broken.

[Mike Sixel]

48 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

It is sad to see him struggle like this and it has taken away the hope he gave us when he first became a Twin, but if we put this in another context, what is happening with the Twins coaches?  We have almost a coach for each player, yet Correa is struggling and causing us to wonder what his final years on the contract will be.  We have Wallner who looked so good he was going to lead off and now we question our judgment.  Larnach has stagnated, Lee does not look like the wonderkid we anticipated.  Vasquez has spiraled down to the bottom of the barrel, Articles question France's value and Clemens is streaky and offers promise without follow through.  

What is the reason this lineup has fallen so far below expectations?  Without Buxton, Castro and Bader all preseason expectations have been shattered. 

I'd argue France and Vazquez are contributing exactly as expected. Larnach has been this for three years, it's who he is. I don't blame coaches for CC or Lewis. Or give them credit for Buxton or Bader. Wallner is inexperienced enough that I question the coaches. And Lee.

Clemens was DFA earlier this year.... It's the front office who should be most questioned. 

As for Lewis? Injuries have taken their toll. I think our real hope here is he's healthy next year. 

[Doctor Gast]

IMO, it's not so confusing. He went through 2 ACL rehabs & returned almost 100% & late in '23, he showed what he's capable of. As to be expected, he has had problems with soft tissue injuries early in '24 & '25. Overcoming them in '24, he ran out of gas due to being on the IL & little time to be conditioned. '25 he was rushed back & was reinjured, then rushed back w/o time to really get ramped up sufficiently.  Eventually, he'll hit on all cylinders & be a dynamo & then my concern is him running out of gas.

Everybody was very negative on Buxton, But I believe he'd be a big impact on this team. This surgery he had last year solved his knee problem & he's been great. I have more confidence in Lewis's comeback & impact on the team.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO, it's not so confusing. He went through 2 ACL rehabs & returned almost 100% & late in '23, he showed what he's capable of. As to be expected, he has had problems with soft tissue injuries early in '24 & '25. Overcoming them in '24, he ran out of gas due to being on the IL & little time to be conditioned. '25 he was rushed back & was reinjured, then rushed back w/o time to really get ramped up sufficiently.  Eventually, he'll hit on all cylinders & be a dynamo & then my concern is him running out of gas.

Everybody was very negative on Buxton, But I believe he'd be a big impact on this team. This surgery he had last year solved his knee problem. I have more confidence in Lewis's comeback & impact.

I agree they've rushed him too much, too often. 

[LastOnePicked]

I hope Buxton can offer him a little guidance. It's going to be a transition year. Royce will either have a resurgence at some point in the coming years, or he could leave the game early and then be a great manager with a renewed love of the game from the dugout. I feel for him. Good guy. Incredible talent. Rotten luck.

[mac098]

Personally, I think we shut him down from the MLB and let him play in AAA for the year. Let him perform somewhere there isn't as much pressure. 

 

I'm starting to believe that the front office is to blame for everything. Something about their development coaches are starting to show that our players are not being properly trained for the Majors. They're getting left behind compared to other organizations. I mean clearly our drafts have not been great seeing as a plethora of our former first rounders are struggling or we've traded then away and they haven't really done much either. 

 

This front office hasn't made many good decisions in the past to help our future. We gave up a lot of big league ready players for Mahle and Jorge Lopez. Now those players are having decent seasons. As an organization we're struggling to put out a quality squad. I don't know what we can do other than get an owner who is going to completely overhaul the front office and start fire selling all non essential players (players without no trade clauses)

[Rod Carews Birthday]

30 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Not hard to understand.  Flash.  Pan.

MLB full of this.

 

Sadly, it is possible that this is really the case.  There have been others like this. . . Joe Charboneau, Kevin Maas, Bobby Crosby.  I hope he gets healthy and figures it out, but at the moment he either belongs in St. Paul or on the IL.  If he can't figure it out, he will be another of those "what if" players.  

Someone brought up Eddie Julien.  They were both good in 2023, with Lewis being a bit better, albeit in half as many plate appearances.  However, Lewis for the past 12 months has been worse than Julien was when he was declared "unplayable", but yet he has gotten way more run than Eddie ever did.  Lewis desperately needs to go figure it out where there is decidedly less pressure and attention.  Maybe then he can realize all of that potential that he flashed a couple of years ago.  

[ashbury]

26 minutes ago, mac098 said:

I'm starting to believe that the front office is to blame for everything. Something about their development coaches are starting to show that our players are not being properly trained for the Majors. They're getting left behind compared to other organizations. I mean clearly our drafts have not been great seeing as a plethora of our former first rounders are struggling or we've traded then away and they haven't really done much either. 

I'm nowhere near qualified to coach a hitter, which makes me unqualified to judge those who do.  Still, I have this nagging worry, or maybe a working hypothesis, that our batters are being taught techniques that work right up through AAA but break down when facing good solid MLB pitching. 

"Wait for your pitch" would be one example I can think of, simple though it may be.  If you face a typical AAA hurler, eventually he'll make a mistake pitch, and you should pounce on it.  At single-A, mistakes come your way all the time.  At AAA, maybe one in five pitches are mistakes?  So you'll get your chances to do damage over the course of the game.  What if the pitcher makes NO mistakes while it's your turn at bat?  Some pitchers in the majors are capable of that for lengthy stretches when they are going well  A couple of tempting pitches in the dirt that you can choose to lay off of, but three similar looking pitches that catch a corner or edge of the strike zone and you just look at them waiting for something better?  What's your Plan B in that case?  Do you have what it takes to punch the pitcher's best pitch the opposite way for a single?  (And maybe persuade him eventually to stop feeding you that, giving you more opportunities for the pitches you do like?)

Or do you just stick with Plan A, game after game after game?

I don't know how to state it any better than that, but that would be the gist of it.  And again, I know actual coaching is way more layered and nuanced than that.  It's just a starting point for conversation.

Those are the things I'd be looking at from the FO perspective.  Given that it's system-wide, and they have made multiple changes in batting coaches at the major-league level, I'm concerned that this FO doesn't have the perspective to find the problem.  They do hire people from outside, but there is a bias if they are looking for people who are attuned to the present system.  Do they hire complete outsiders on a consulting basis, for instance?

[h2oface]

It’s the eye black.

 

[h2oface]

Many (most?) Twins’ fans/writers/admins will hang on to the potential hype to the bitter end. The flash was fun. Results have to be acknowledged. Dannys Valencia/Santana had a flash. They didn’t have the 1st overall draft pick to live up to. Somebody may eventually get a whole year of his upper side. Maybe. His defense even seems to be getting worse. 

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Someone brought up Eddie Julien

If memory serves, it was the Twins, back in 2023 I believe.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Just now, ashbury said:

If memory serves, it was the Twins, back in 2023 I believe.

If only that player's performance were the same now.  2023 Eddie Julien was pretty useful.  So was Lewis back then.  Now. . . not so much in either case.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

25 minutes ago, ashbury said:

"Wait for your pitch" would be one example I can think of, simple though it may be.  If you face a typical AAA hurler, eventually he'll make a mistake pitch, and you should pounce on it.  At single-A, mistakes come your way all the time.  At AAA, maybe one in five pitches are mistakes?  So you'll get your chances to do damage over the course of the game.  What if the pitcher makes NO mistakes while it's your turn at bat?  Some pitchers in the majors are capable of that for lengthy stretches when they are going well  A couple of tempting pitches in the dirt that you can choose to lay off of, but three similar looking pitches that catch a corner or edge of the strike zone and you just look at them waiting for something better?  What's your Plan B in that case?  Do you have what it takes to punch the pitcher's best pitch the opposite way for a single?  (And maybe persuade him eventually to stop feeding you that, giving you more opportunities for the pitches you do like?)

 

I think remaining flexible is definitely important but I think that the definition of "mistake pitch" changes as you move up the ladder.  A mistake pitch in beer league might be pretty easy for anyone to see, but as you ascend, they become less recognizable to guys like me because they are not disastrous pitches.  However, those are probably still recognizable to actual professional hitters, or at least they should be.  

Your point is well taken, are we going up to the plate to "try even harder" to do what we were doing in Single A?  I can't answer that, but I do know that the margin for error becomes a whole lot less as the competition gets better around you.  It's true in the NFL, the NBA, and it's true in MLB as well.  Some great college players can't cut the professional leagues because they have finally run up against the limits of their abilities.  I think it's the same way for minor league baseball players making the transition to MLB.  I'm still holding out hope that isn't the case with Lewis (or Julien for that matter), but it's getting harder to do that all the time.  

[1985Fan]

It was wrong to rush Lewis back to MLB after his last injury. He should have stayed in St.Paul and hit his way back. He needs to get his confidence back and/or prove he’s not injured. If he’s injured then put him on the IL. This is a case of Falvey and Baldelli being desperate to get to the playoffs and save their tails, that the well being of the player is sacrificed as well as the long term success of the organization. I fear they’ll do the same thing with Keaschall. He should be DH’ing in St.Paul for the rest of the season, getting much needed AAA AB’s. Wallner is another guy that should be at AAA until he proves to the organization and himself that he can consistently hit. 
Their argument is that this is how they stay competitive by working guys into the lineup from the MiLB system, As has been pointed out, that isn’t working, which points to a flawed player development system. When everything is analytics, good old baseball skills seem to be ignored. Now they’re paying the price.

[OvertheHill]

Even after his bat comes around, which I am really pulling for, I wonder what his highest and best use is in the field. I remember being excited after he was drafted thinking he might be a MLB shortstop. That was quickly revealed to not be the case, and the Twins were messing around with him in different spots, including CF. He didn’t appear to have instincts for that, and he’s lumbered his way to 3rd. I understand and am saddened by the fact that his once upper echelon athleticism has diminished due to injuries. At this point, I think with a lot of work he *might* be an average fielding 3B, but honestly is he best pictured as our future first baseman? Assume he can train up for that? 

[mac098]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

I'm nowhere near qualified to coach a hitter, which makes me unqualified to judge those who do.  Still, I have this nagging worry, or maybe a working hypothesis, that our batters are being taught techniques that work right up through AAA but break down when facing good solid MLB pitching. 

"Wait for your pitch" would be one example I can think of, simple though it may be.  If you face a typical AAA hurler, eventually he'll make a mistake pitch, and you should pounce on it.  At single-A, mistakes come your way all the time.  At AAA, maybe one in five pitches are mistakes?  So you'll get your chances to do damage over the course of the game.  What if the pitcher makes NO mistakes while it's your turn at bat?  Some pitchers in the majors are capable of that for lengthy stretches when they are going well  A couple of tempting pitches in the dirt that you can choose to lay off of, but three similar looking pitches that catch a corner or edge of the strike zone and you just look at them waiting for something better?  What's your Plan B in that case?  Do you have what it takes to punch the pitcher's best pitch the opposite way for a single?  (And maybe persuade him eventually to stop feeding you that, giving you more opportunities for the pitches you do like?)

Or do you just stick with Plan A, game after game after game?

I don't know how to state it any better than that, but that would be the gist of it.  And again, I know actual coaching is way more layered and nuanced than that.  It's just a starting point for conversation.

Those are the things I'd be looking at from the FO perspective.  Given that it's system-wide, and they have made multiple changes in batting coaches at the major-league level, I'm concerned that this FO doesn't have the perspective to find the problem.  They do hire people from outside, but there is a bias if they are looking for people who are attuned to the present system.  Do they hire complete outsiders on a consulting basis, for instance?

I cometely agree with you. But even a HS coach can tell when MLB mechanics are wonky. The eye test rarely lies. The MLB is all driven by analytics and launch angle. And the players buy into it. They don't change things when it comes to 2 strike counts. They don't have the old saying of: Your first swing is your damage swing. Every swing they have is they're "damage" swing because single and double hitters don't get payed like HR hitters do. But trying to hit HRs late in the game when down by 3 and nobody on is not helping your team. You need baserunners to win. 

I miss seeing the days of hitters hitting .300+ and 25+ HRs. I get it might have been steroid era, but if hitters were using it, I'm sure pitchers were doing the same. It's ridiculous that an average hitter hits .243 with 25+ HRs. 

[T.O.]

The injuries are a big thing but I wonder how much of this is Lewis not being able to live with briefly being a superstar, trying too hard to get back there. I question whether he has the temperament and maturity to just be a good ball player and stop trying to be the star.
Kind of hard when the organization keeps marketing you as a star.

[Parfigliano]

6 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO, it's not so confusing. He went through 2 ACL rehabs & returned almost 100% & late in '23, he showed what he's capable of. As to be expected, he has had problems with soft tissue injuries early in '24 & '25. Overcoming them in '24, he ran out of gas due to being on the IL & little time to be conditioned. '25 he was rushed back & was reinjured, then rushed back w/o time to really get ramped up sufficiently.  Eventually, he'll hit on all cylinders & be a dynamo & then my concern is him running out of gas.

Everybody was very negative on Buxton, But I believe he'd be a big impact on this team. This surgery he had last year solved his knee problem & he's been great. I have more confidence in Lewis's comeback & impact on the team.

Yesssss......After ten years........bingo

[DocBauer]

This MY OPINION as a semi-intelligent human being who has watched a lot of sports in my 59 years. I've seen injuries ruin careers. And I've seen injuries just mess with careers and taken players longer to overcome. 

Royce may have lost speed, but he's still a good athlete and a tireless worker. I was really encouraged when he spent this past offseason working with a previous trainer that he trusted to increase flexibility to help him avoid his most recent run of soft tissue injuries.

Again, IMO, what happened is a pair of bad knee injuries didn't just rob him of speed, but it changed the basic fundamentals of his legs, his base. He's gotten bigger and stronger as part of his rehab, and to provide more power to compensate for his knee injuries. As a result, his body is still adjusting and compensating for the overall change in his body makeup. The idea of working hard on flexibility for that change is the right one. But it might take an additional offseason work to finally see the results. He's not trying to be a muscled-up Marvel superhero, he's trying to get his new body to work in a fluid motion as a hitter. And his base just isn't right as his body is still learning to adjust and compensate.

It's, unfortunately, possible those 2 knee injuries have just messed with his base so much that he's just never going to be healthy enough to the player we all hoped he'd be. But then again, a fairly minor surgery suddenly freed Buxton to actually feel good and healthy, and better than he felt in years.

In a way, Lewis is still learning to hit again as his whole body is very different that it was when drafted, and through his first couple of seasons in MILB. The HOPE, again IMO, is that a second offseason working on flexibility, combined with time, will allow him a more confident BASE to work with in 2026, with all the parts of his body working more smoothly in unison to be the player we all hope he can be. Or at least close. 

[Geminizer9]

It seems to me that Lewis slump started when he changed his swing after he pulled an oblique or groin muscle.  He dropped his leg kick and with his previous swing he could really put a charge into the ball.  The swing he's now using has no sting.  Balls that would go over the wall before now are just lazy fly balls or pop-ups. 

[TopGunn#22]

I think Doc Bauer makes a great point about his base.  It’s hard to be an effective hitter or player in general if you are unsure of your ability to perform due to lingering injury issues.  He may never make it all the way back, but I sure hope he does.  I’m hoping for a Paul Molitor type of career.  I think Byron Buxton is a great comp.  Although Buxton still has his tremendous speed.  I would NOT give up on Lewis and hope an off season plan gets him on the right track.  

[TL]

The organization is in such a tough spot figuring out what to do with him.

On the one hand: 

(1) Great guy and tremendous clubhouse presence - face of the franchise potential (2) Huge upside if he can figure it out and get back to 80% of what he was when he first came up (3) 3 years of team control after this one (4) FOMO if you were to trade him now

On the other hand: 

(1) Pitching staff, both starters and bullpen, built to win at least through 2027 (2) Keashall, Culpepper, Lee all appear ready now or by early next year in Culpepper’s case (3) Royce does not seem like a bench bat where you can start him 3 days a week all over the infield. He needs a home.

It’s so tough to give up on the upside but it is really putting the team in a bind because they, like all of us, want him to succeed so badly.

[Dawgzilla]

It almost looks like he forgot how to hit.  Did he do any off-season baseball activities?  Where is the plate discipline, let alone power???!!!

[USAFChief]

His footwork in the box is about as bad as you'll ever see. Been that way since the 2nd half last year.

Off balance, all arms, no base, feet moving all over as he swings 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

3 hours ago, TL said:

He needs a home.

👆

Lewis has always seen himself as an All-Star shortstop. I still do as well.

(I am not assuming you still agree with me @TL)

Lewis can still be successful. I believe the sunny attitude we associated with Lewis is still in there as well. How quickly we forget how transformative Lewis promised to be. 

I am not trying to convince anyone of anything at this point.

Lewis’s childhood idol was Derek Jeter. (All the ball guys will tell you that Jeter was a terrible fielder.) Lewis never got the chance to be Derek Jeter here and I wish the front office would trade him to a team that can give him that chance.

They could get a very nice return for Lewis, and they know it.