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The Minnesota Twins are a team of extremes: from hot to cold, from impressive to embarrassing, from confident to bamboozled. There never seems to be much middle ground, or at least, there hasn't been for the past couple of seasons.
No one singularly embodies this trait quite like Royce Lewis. Not so long ago he was one of the most feared and revered sluggers in the game, showcasing his prowess on the biggest stage. Now he's turned into one of the league's weakest, least powerful hitters.
It's almost impossible to comprehend: Dating back to August 13th of last year, a span of his past 85 games played, Lewis ranks 327th out of 331 players (200+ PA) in slugging percentage, ahead of only Matt Thaiss, Nick Allen, Josh Rojas and our guy Christian Vázquez. Not the company you want to be grouped with. No player during this time period has more at-bats than Lewis with a worse OPS. In 321 plate appearances, he has three home runs.
Now, let's juxtapose that against the player Royce Lewis was BEFORE he started doing the slump thing. From the date of his major-league debut (May 6, 2022) through August 12th of 2024, Lewis ranked third among all MLB players (400+ PA) in slugging percentage at .589, trailing only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. He crushed 32 homers in 397 plate appearances.
An astonishing drop-off from a 26-year-old player who should ostensibly in the heart of his physical prime. Of course, by this point we're not covering new ground by mentioning the "what" (Lewis has been in a spiral for nearly a full calendar year); what matters is figuring out the "why." For the Minnesota Twins, the stakes are incredibly high.
Their underperforming offensive unit is threatening to sabotage a rare moment of opportunity for the Twins. They led the American League in pitching fWAR in the first half, and Byron Buxton is playing at a legitimately MVP-caliber level, putting forth one of the best seasons in franchise history. To be three games below .500, and staring at an uphill battle to reach the playoffs, in spite of these factors is pretty outrageous and unacceptable.
Needless to say there have been plenty of culprits in dragging this team down, and no one player is responsible. Carlos Correa has obviously been an issue, nut his struggles look quaint by comparison to Lewis; Correa's sub-par OPS is 120 points higher, and he at least contributes as a defensive standout at a premium position.
The inescapable reality with Lewis is that he's a gaping void of production for the Twins, one they cannot afford, and it's made all the more vexing when you consider his potential (proven!) impact at the opposite extreme. Targeting significant acquisitions at the deadline is likely a pipe dream to begin with, but no pickup could even remotely compare to the transformative effect of Lewis at the height of his powers.
He's so far from that right now. On the surface, de doesn't really seem to be making meaningful progress in the right direction. A modest hot streak in 10 June games (.367 average, .990 OPS) has given way to a .540 OPS in July, and Lewis is now one-for-his-last-14.
On the one hand, you can make a case that Lewis has been extraordinarily unlucky. He's putting the ball in play a ton and just getting no results, with a .237 BABIP that is near the bottom of the league. His underlying metrics, per Statcast, are really not that bad: Royce's xwOBA (.337) – while still far from amazing – is 80 points higher than his dreadful .257 wOBA.
The quality-of-contact measurements also paint a pretty favorable picture of momentum, in contrast to Lewis's stagnating offensive production. His rolling xwOBA has been steadily creeping up over his past 100 plate appearances:
On the other hand ... these narratives get a little stale and unsatisfying when you're actually watching the games, seeing Lewis churn outs as games slip away and postseason hopes grow dimmer. He's definitely had some hits taken away by the defense, but Lewis doesn't really look like a player who's raking and getting robbed. He looks unstable in the box, tentative in his approach, and extremely vulnerable to the whims of opposing pitchers. For all the ups and downs, all the luck-based metrics, that hasn't changed all year.
The Twins' strategy with Lewis has been to wait and hope for a breakthrough. When he suffered a minor hamstring injury in mid-June, the team had an opportunity to take a beat, and perhaps send Lewis on an extended rehab to the spring training complex where he could focus on strengthening and physical reset.. They opted instead to rush him through a quick Triple-A rehab, returning him after two weeks, and his results have been much the same.
Maybe that's only sensible. The Twins understand that Lewis is one of the few individuals with an outsized capability to save their wayward season. But right now he's sinking it, and no one involved appears to have much of an idea how to straighten him out other than crossing their fingers and hoping. So I guess I'll do the same.







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