Why Keeping Simeon Woods Richardson in the Minnesota Twins Rotation Makes Sense

[Matthew Lenz]

Despite three solid starts, Minnesota Twins starter David Festa was sent back to Triple-A St. Paul this week. A move was necessary to make room for returning ace Pablo López, but why did the club choose to demote Festa over Simeon Woods Richardson?

Image courtesy of © Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

In his three starts in April, David Festa carried a 3.69 FIP and a 15.5 difference between his strikeout and walk rates (K-BB%) across 13 innings. In a limited sample, opposing hitters batted .348 (with a .438 slugging percentage) against Festa’s 95-mph fastball, but his changeup was very effective. Primarily used against lefties, opponents didn't get a single hit against the offering, and its Run Value (RV) currently ranks in the 89th percentile of all offspeed pitches for qualified pitchers. In each of his starts, Festa found himself in the top 2 of Thomas Nestico’s daily tjStuff+ leaderboard. Technically, he has four plus pitches—although one of them, his sinker, is essentially a show-me pitch. Regardless, Festa found himself as the odd man out when Pablo López returned from a hamstring injury Friday.

Simeon Woods Richardson, who keeps his rotation spot (for now), has been a similarly productive pitcher. Across 24 ⅓  innings in four appearances, the 25-year-old has a 4.04 FIP and an 18.7 K-BB%. The righthander's fastball, breaking ball, and offspeed offerings fall in the 54th, 27th, and 3rd percentile, respectively, of all qualified pitchers in baseball. While the surface stats appear to be getting the job done, the under-the-hood metrics suggest that Festa has been the better pitcher. Projecting into the future, Festa generally has the higher ceiling of the two starters. So why was Woods Richardson given the spot over Festa? The answer clearly points to factors outside of productivity and effectiveness.

As a rookie, Woods Richardson ended up being one of the Twin' most reliable arms for the first five months of the season. Having reached a career high in innings pitched, he ran out of gas in September. That (combined with the team's collapse) really overshadowed just how good he was. While he should be better prepared to reach and surpass that number in his second year in the big leagues, keeping Festa (and Zebby Matthews) fresher for the end of the season is insurance if Woods Richardson eventually wilts again.

In his three starts, Festa averaged under 75 pitches per start, though he did throw 80 pitches in his second start with the St. Paul Saints on April 4th. It's likely that the Twins are managing his pitch and innings count to be ready for a bigger role on the big-league club later in the season. That's much easier, and less is at stake, if he's in St. Paul rather than Minneapolis. However, that's not the only benefit to sending him down.

Believe it or not, Woods Richardson is actually younger than Festa, and has just one option remaining despite less than two years of service time accrued. This is significant for a couple of reasons:

• If the Twins use that option this year and he spends two months in St. Paul, they will get an extra year of team control.
• If the Twins retain that option ahead of next season, there is less pressure to establish his role for next season.

Expanding on the latter, if Woods Richardson enters camp next year without options, the Twins will need to quickly determine whether his role for the season is as a starter or reliever. While Woods Richardson’s current profile limits his ceiling, his productivity suggests that maybe the Twins can get more out of him with more time. It's possible that Woods Richardson is a late bloomer and, obviously, the Twins want to be the beneficiaries if he does in fact bloom. Again, he's only 25 years old, so to suggest that what we've seen is the best we’re going to get would be short-sighted. In short, you don't have to worry about Festa (or Matthews), who currently has all three options remaining (and will have two left even come 2026), whereas you definitely need to keep that in consideration with Woods Richardson.

While it can be frustrating for the Twins not to roster their top 26 players right now, the difference in production (to this point) has been negligible and doesn't justify sacrificing the bigger picture. There is more value in playing the service time/option game than there is in keeping Festa in the major-league rotation in April. Moreover, it allows the Twins to keep him fresh when injury strikes or someone falters later in the season.

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Keeping all factors in mind, how would you handle the Twins rotation? Should Festa and/or Matthews be in the big leagues? Join the conversation in the comments!

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[Mike Elias]

Move Paddock to the pen and keep Festa in the rotation.

[miracleb]

This Festa conversation should be focused around........Paddock.

[JD-TWINS]

Not really sure what SWR needs to do to get some respect for what he’s done to date. He’s 24 and came into ‘24 as the #7 guy and worked his way on to the MLB Rotation with Varland’s failure and DeSclafani’s injury in April. After Paddack went down he was in the #4 slot for 25 starts.

To me, if anyone might get displaced in the current ‘25 rotation by the talent push from AAA, Chris Paddack is the more obvious choice. He hasn’t shown he can be expected to last much more than 100 innings ……… I’d like to see him in the Pen ultimately in ‘25.

I think SWR is a fixture in rotation for another 3-4 years barring trade.

[laloesch]

3 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Not really sure what SWR needs to do to get some respect for what he’s done to date. He’s 24 and came into ‘24 as the #7 guy and worked his way on to the MLB Rotation with Varland’s failure and DeSclafani’s injury in April. After Paddack went down he was in the #4 slot for 25 starts.

To me, if anyone might get displaced in the current ‘25 rotation by the talent push from AAA, Chris Paddack is the more obvious choice. He hasn’t shown he can be expected to last much more than 100 innings ……… I’d like to see him in the Pen ultimately in ‘25.

I think SWR is a fixture in rotation for another 3-4 years barring trade.

I think SWR is a good back end of the rotation starter which is fine, as you need pitchers like that.  I think the Twins are starting Paddack right now to try and find a trade partner for him.   

[Doctor Wu]

10 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I think SWR is a fixture in rotation for another 3-4 years barring trade.

I agree. When I read the headline of this article, I thought: huh? Why would the Twins even think of sending him down? Sure, you can get into the Festa comparisons, or whatever, but SWR has earned his spot in the rotation and certainly deserves to keep it going forward. 

[mikelink45]

Trade Paddock and Alcala - get Festa and Matthews into the majors RP/SP.  We need all the good arms we can get.  There are ways to stretch from BP to SP if needed.  

[arby58]

When I see these comparisons of Festa and SWR, small sample size is the phrase that comes to mind. Festa is still figuring it out. Three starts, regardless of the stats, should not give the Twins the comfort in him that they should have after SWR's 2024 and 2025 performance to date. 

[Doctor Gast]

In my opinion, Simmy is better than he seems on the surface. He ranks high in "stuff" metrics. He has established himself in the rotation & he does whatever it takes to win ball games. That said, I'd still like to see both Festa & Matthews more often in the MLB. They could be used in spot starts & eventually take over for Paddack if he's not traded or end up in the BP.

[Hubie29]

1 hour ago, miracleb said:

This Festa conversation should be focused around........Paddock.

Absolutely! SWR shouldn't even be considered to be dropped from the rotation before Paddack. Ridiculous. 

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, miracleb said:

This Festa conversation should be focused around........Paddock.

Sim is fine. Festa is fine. Paddack is fine. We really need to focus on the batting and defense.

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

Trade Paddock and Alcala - get Festa and Matthews into the majors RP/SP.  We need all the good arms we can get.  There are ways to stretch from BP to SP if needed.  

Trade Alcala lol. What are you expecting?

[madtowntwin]

Paddack's start tomorrow in Cleveland will be factorially huge contextually to this whole conversation. Win Twins!!

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Another "we are running out of quality things to write about" article...

Was there anyone, anywhere (outside of Paddack's mother) that raised the possibility the Twins should send down SWR over Festa?

[CRF]

SWR is a decent back of the rotation guy. Paddack is the borderline starter right now.

[bean5302]

I came into this year not bullish on SWR at all. I didn't expect he'd be able to maintain his spot in the rotation. His Stuff+ ranks pretty poorly, but he's getting results right now. Despite the results, it's clear Baldelli has no trust in Sim as he reaches for the hook quick so I'd say the Twins have the same back end rotation opinion of SWR. The Twins aren't going to demote SWR so long as he keeps getting results.

The fact Festa is still working on a pitch contributes to why he was sent back down to AAA, regardless of whether or not he pitched better than SWR.

 

[strumdatjag]

At some point Festa, Matthew’s and/or Morris will earn a promotion to the Big League rotation.   Then the Twins will have to decide which starting pitcher gets demoted (the the pen or AAA).    SWR and Paddack are the most likely to be demoted.   Any of the current starters or one of those 3 AAA guys could be traded.   A bevy of good starters throughout the system creates many good options. It’s a nice “problem” to have. 

[Blyleven2011]

5 hours ago, Patzky said:

Sim is fine. Festa is fine. Paddack is fine. We really need to focus on the batting and defense.

We really need to focus on putting the best players we have on the MLB roster  ...

Pitching is a strength and yes the defense and lack of offense is a weakness  ...

SWR is a solid fifth starter,  Paddack is injury prone ( why aren't they handling him with kid gloves ) , with the surplus of pitching depth the FO should be actively pursuing a trade for offense production  ...

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm not particularly bullish on SWR but he has answered some of the questions I had about him this offseason. He's not overpowering, he's never going to be elite, but he looks like a legit back of the rotation arm for a few years and that's a fantastic outcome for him.

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

We really need to focus on putting the best players we have on the MLB roster  ...

Pitching is a strength and yes the defense and lack of offense is a weakness  ...

SWR is a solid fifth starter,  Paddack is injury prone ( why are they handling him with kid gloves ) , with the surplus of pitching depth the FO should be actively pursuing a trade for offense production  ...

Agreed. But teams just don't trade this early. But I'm hoping for a deal with Baltimore and their hitting.

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, strumdatjag said:

At some point Festa, Matthew’s and/or Morris will earn a promotion to the Big League rotation.   Then the Twins will have to decide which starting pitcher gets demoted (the the pen or AAA).    SWR and Paddack are the most likely to be demoted.   Any of the current starters or one of those 3 AAA guys could be traded.   A bevy of good starters throughout the system creates many good options. It’s a nice “problem” to have. 

It will be disappointing if Ryan or Ober are among the trades.

 

42 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Agreed. But teams just don't trade this early. But I'm hoping for a deal with Baltimore and their hitting.

I thought the same then I checked out their "hitting".. ish.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

3 hours ago, laloesch said:

I think SWR is a good back end of the rotation starter which is fine, as you need pitchers like that.  I think the Twins are starting Paddack right now to try and find a trade partner for him.   

Agreed, and as we’ve seen, injuries are coming, and are hard to predict.

[Mike Sixel]

21 minutes ago, Patzky said:

It will be disappointing if Ryan or Ober are among the trades.

 

I thought the same then I checked out their "hitting".. ish.

Minors, not majors. 

[thelanges5]

SWR stepped in LY and saved our butts. He has looked good so far in 2025. Not sure I liked the blowing kisses incident. However, I do like that he has confidence and a bit of swagger. 
 

Paddack is pitching for his current job and future. 
 

Festa and Zebby will get their chances. 

[mickster]

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

It will be disappointing if Ryan or Ober are among the trades.

 

I thought the same then I checked out their "hitting".. ish.

Festa should be used in a trade.   His ceiling is a number 3 starter

[Trov]

There is no reason to send down a productive pitcher simply because you may have a little better guy.  If Festa came in and dominated his starts to force a move, then we would talk about Paddock to pen versus SWR to minors.  If SWR starts to falter, then it is worth talking about Festa taking over for him.  I think the options point is huge though.  Why use an option when he is pitching just fine at the MLB level?  Use it if he falters and others clearly leap frog him, but not just to have someone who, right now, will be close to him. 

Additionally, something like that will sour any relationship they have with him.  Meaning chance of getting him to take a deal to help the team will go out the window.  It also sours how players feel about the team around the league.  If you get known to be bad manager of people it hurts your ability to bring people over as FA. 

[nicksaviking]

I'm sure we'll all appreciate the pitching depth in September when the team is out of contention and no one is watching the games.

Put your best players on the roster now and try to win. Worry about later, later.

[bean5302]

29 minutes ago, mickster said:

Festa should be used in a trade.   His ceiling is a number 3 starter

Are you advocating for the trade because you think he could bring a real haul back based on his league minimum salary, and more than 5 years of team control remaining? For sure, that's an enormous value, but it's also an enormous loss with limited control remaining over almost the entire current rotation.

Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober aren't better than #3's and Lopez is probably slipping from his #2 status. Festa's ceiling is probably as good as any of them. 

[Jham]

I thought Paddock looked outstanding out of the pen a couple years ago. He's a strike thrower with no pitch mix to speak of? To have a fireman that can come in and not walk guys is big. He's worked so hard to get back into the rotation. Gotta respect that. But... I just wonder if he'd be more effective and healthier as a set-up guy.

[JD-TWINS]

24 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Are you advocating for the trade because you think he could bring a real haul back based on his league minimum salary, and more than 5 years of team control remaining? For sure, that's an enormous value, but it's also an enormous loss with limited control remaining over almost the entire current rotation.

Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober aren't better than #3's and Lopez is probably slipping from his #2 status. Festa's ceiling is probably as good as any of them. 

Not sure but I thought all 3 guys, before Ryan’s injury, were in a few Top 35’s last year relative to pitching stats? …… not sure what Lopez needs to do to cement a #2 status? 

Lopez has a decent WHIP of 1.11 - he’s 2-1 after 4 starts and has a 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio - and the ERA is 2.08. …….. doesn’t seem to be a lot of slip in those numbers. We’ll see how he does on the road v. a team that knows him well this week in Cleveland…… 

Ryan - Ober - Lopez all under Team Control through ‘27 (limited somewhat, assuming arbitration payouts for Ryan & Ober) …….SWR through ‘28 ……. Festa through ‘28, maybe ‘29 ……. Matthews through ‘29 ……. Morris, etc. clock hasn’t started

Paddack is the one guy Twins don’t control nor do they need/want to past ‘25.

 

Festa isn’t bringing back, as I assume you would agree, “a haul”.

IMO - Twins pitching is “playoff adequate” - they need offense NOW and not via some trades for prospects………Martin - Rodriguez - Lee are all the prospects “with potential” I can take at this point. I like trading pitching (not just the dregs) for a real bat at some point this summer……. young pitching control be damned. No idea who this mystery bat might be though 🙁