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In his three starts in April, David Festa carried a 3.69 FIP and a 15.5 difference between his strikeout and walk rates (K-BB%) across 13 innings. In a limited sample, opposing hitters batted .348 (with a .438 slugging percentage) against Festa’s 95-mph fastball, but his changeup was very effective. Primarily used against lefties, opponents didn't get a single hit against the offering, and its Run Value (RV) currently ranks in the 89th percentile of all offspeed pitches for qualified pitchers. In each of his starts, Festa found himself in the top 2 of Thomas Nestico’s daily tjStuff+ leaderboard. Technically, he has four plus pitches—although one of them, his sinker, is essentially a show-me pitch. Regardless, Festa found himself as the odd man out when Pablo López returned from a hamstring injury Friday.
Simeon Woods Richardson, who keeps his rotation spot (for now), has been a similarly productive pitcher. Across 24 ⅓ innings in four appearances, the 25-year-old has a 4.04 FIP and an 18.7 K-BB%. The righthander's fastball, breaking ball, and offspeed offerings fall in the 54th, 27th, and 3rd percentile, respectively, of all qualified pitchers in baseball. While the surface stats appear to be getting the job done, the under-the-hood metrics suggest that Festa has been the better pitcher. Projecting into the future, Festa generally has the higher ceiling of the two starters. So why was Woods Richardson given the spot over Festa? The answer clearly points to factors outside of productivity and effectiveness.
As a rookie, Woods Richardson ended up being one of the Twin' most reliable arms for the first five months of the season. Having reached a career high in innings pitched, he ran out of gas in September. That (combined with the team's collapse) really overshadowed just how good he was. While he should be better prepared to reach and surpass that number in his second year in the big leagues, keeping Festa (and Zebby Matthews) fresher for the end of the season is insurance if Woods Richardson eventually wilts again.
In his three starts, Festa averaged under 75 pitches per start, though he did throw 80 pitches in his second start with the St. Paul Saints on April 4th. It's likely that the Twins are managing his pitch and innings count to be ready for a bigger role on the big-league club later in the season. That's much easier, and less is at stake, if he's in St. Paul rather than Minneapolis. However, that's not the only benefit to sending him down.
Believe it or not, Woods Richardson is actually younger than Festa, and has just one option remaining despite less than two years of service time accrued. This is significant for a couple of reasons:
- If the Twins use that option this year and he spends two months in St. Paul, they will get an extra year of team control.
- If the Twins retain that option ahead of next season, there is less pressure to establish his role for next season.
Expanding on the latter, if Woods Richardson enters camp next year without options, the Twins will need to quickly determine whether his role for the season is as a starter or reliever. While Woods Richardson’s current profile limits his ceiling, his productivity suggests that maybe the Twins can get more out of him with more time. It's possible that Woods Richardson is a late bloomer and, obviously, the Twins want to be the beneficiaries if he does in fact bloom. Again, he's only 25 years old, so to suggest that what we've seen is the best we’re going to get would be short-sighted. In short, you don't have to worry about Festa (or Matthews), who currently has all three options remaining (and will have two left even come 2026), whereas you definitely need to keep that in consideration with Woods Richardson.
While it can be frustrating for the Twins not to roster their top 26 players right now, the difference in production (to this point) has been negligible and doesn't justify sacrificing the bigger picture. There is more value in playing the service time/option game than there is in keeping Festa in the major-league rotation in April. Moreover, it allows the Twins to keep him fresh when injury strikes or someone falters later in the season.
Keeping all factors in mind, how would you handle the Twins rotation? Should Festa and/or Matthews be in the big leagues? Join the conversation in the comments!
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