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Posted

The Twins' veteran catcher has been a popular trade candidate this offseason. However, if injury were to strike, the repercussions of dealing him could qucikly turn catastrophic.

Image courtesy of © Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

Since the offseason began, two Minnesota Twins players have been linked incessantly to trade rumors: Chris Paddack and Christian Vázquez. Most franchises would perceive these veteran players as crucial depth pieces who raise the floor of a team, which is an all-too-important role to fulfill during a 162-game season. Alas, Minnesota's front office must work around strict ownership-imposed salary limitations, meaning the team almost has to part ways with one of Paddack or Vázquez to create the monetary space necessary to sign or trade for an impact player—if, indeed, it's not too late for that already.

At a glance, trading Paddack and his one-year, $7.5-million contract would be an easy pill for Twins decision-makers to swallow. The club's first four rotation spots are solidified, with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Simeon Woods Richardson. As of now, Paddack is slated to inhabit the fifth rotation spot. That said, young, higher-upside arms like David Festa or Zebby Matthews could seamlessly take the 29-year-old right-handed hurler's place. Replacing Vázquez, however, would be a significantly more challenging and perilous endeavor.

Vázquez and his catching partner Ryan Jeffers have started every game at catcher for the Twins the past two seasons. In 2023, Vázquez started 56% of games behind the plate. His timeshare dipped to only 50% in 2024, but it's clear that the team values the savvy veteran's defensive prowess and ability to manage a pitching staff. Because trading him could free up as much as $10 million, though, it's an unavoidable consideration.

On the surface, Jeffers's presence on the 26-man roster makes the notion of trading Vázquez rational. The 27-year-old budding star is one of the best-hitting backstops in the AL and has improved defensively over the past two seasons. The team certainly could convert him into the primary starting catcher, giving him something closer to a traditional starter's workload. Yet, the situation isn't that simple. Yes, Jeffers has improved defensively and presumably could start more than 47% of games at catcher (which is what he started the past two seasons combined). Ratcheting up his share of playing time would also increase the risks associated with him, though. What if playing more exposes his weaknesses? What if he gets hurt?

Vázquez, Jeffers, Diego Cartaya, and Jair Camargo are the four catching options on the 40-man roster. Recently acquired Mickey Gasper has experience behind the plate, too, but the Twins don't view him as a viable catcher in anything more than an emergency situation. If the team were to trade Vázquez, one of Cartaya or Camargo would need to become the backup, or step all the way up into a rotational role.

Having one of Cartaya or Camargo take on the backup catching role behind Jeffers wouldn't necessarily be an unfavorable scenario. Both boast potential—particularly Cartaya, who was once a consensus top-20 prospect in the minors. Yet, there is significant question as to whether either of them have the aptitude to take on a 60-40 split over a 162-game season, let alone a 53-47 split like Vázquez and Jeffers divvied things the previous two seasons.

The Twins have been the beneficiaries of Vázquez and Jeffers not missing any time due to injury the past two seasons. Still, that rate of injury avoidance is not sustainable, especially if the playing time were less balanced. Say Jeffers were to sustain an injury that would cause him to miss an extended period of time. In that case, the team (as currently constructed) would need to rely entirely on Cartaya and Camargo.

Now, relying on this duo for a series or two wouldn't be a catastrophe. Yet, the consequences could be dire if the team's catching duties were given to these two inexperienced players for a month or more. As noted earlier, Vázquez possesses the innate ability to manage a pitching staff. He's a seasoned leader. The value this quality presents cannot be quantified. However, he has undoubtedly played a role in López, Ryan, and Ober's excellent performances in 2023 and 2024. Despite not possessing the same game-changing attributes as Vázquez, Jeffers also has similar experience with these pitchers.

If forced to be the team's catching duo, Cartaya and Camargo would likely struggle at the plate. The team would be able to (mostly) mask their lack of offensive production and place them in the eight- or nine-hole every game, as they have with Vázquez. Still, rostering two offensively deficient backstops would be a disadvantage that not even burying them in the lineup could comprehensively conceal. The real burden of relying on two young, inexperienced backstops would be their effect on the pitching staff.

Cartaya and Camargo have demonstrated adequate pitch framing, blocking, and base-stealing management skills in the high minors. That said, neither has ever had to guide an MLB pitching staff through a game or series, let alone a month-long stretch. If forced to take on this tremendous responsibility, there is reason to suspect they would struggle. With the Twins planning on contending for an AL Central title in 2025, they don't necessarily have the luxury of letting young players battle through extensive struggles at the major-league level.

Trading Vázquez and expecting Jeffers to perform at a rate consistent with his past production while maintaining a clean bill of health is a risky proposition, given the added pressure and heavier demands. If the Twins were to trade Vázquez, they would need to sign a veteran catcher to serve as Jeffers's backup. Intriguing options like James McCann and Yasmani Grandal are still on the market. However, they could sign at any moment. Minnesota may have no choice but to bring Vázquez back for the 2025 campaign, as being one Jeffers injury away from relying on two inexperienced catchers would be malpractice.


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Posted

There is this thing called waivers where other teams release players who are no longer a fit for their roster. If Vazquez is no longer a Twin the team can claim one of those players on waivers to take his spot. 

Teams are also allowed to trade players with other teams. If Vazquez is no longer a Twin they can arrange a trade for a catcher on another team's AAA roster who they don't value as highly.

Posted
11 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

There is this thing called waivers where other teams release players who are no longer a fit for their roster. If Vazquez is no longer a Twin the team can claim one of those players on waivers to take his spot. 

Teams are also allowed to trade players with other teams. If Vazquez is no longer a Twin they can arrange a trade for a catcher on another team's AAA roster who they don't value as highly.

Triple A catchers who a team is willing to unload are almost by definition no better than the better of Cartaya and Camargo. There will always be Sandy León and René Rivera types available, but those guys don't hold steady jobs because they aren't really major league hitters. 

The question to ask in almost every trade scenario is "is this player more valuable to another team?" I think there are teams where there is an affirmative answer in the case of Paddack or Willi Castro. I'm not so sure it is the case with Vázquez. The other question is whether the player has value equal to or greater than their contract. In Vázquez' case the answer is almost certainly "no". Then the question is how much of the salary the trading team is willing to swallow. Most estimates in Vázquez' case, that is about $5M. Is $5M in salary relief worth it? 

Posted

We are not talking Johnny Bench, Joe Mauer or Roy Campanella here.  We're talking Christian Vasquez.  We would be fine with him if he was making $3-$5 million.  But we signed him to a 3-year, $30 million dollar contract and he hits like the bat is a wet noodle.  

Vasquez is replaceable.  This is why there is always so much talk about still having to pay half his $10 million dollar salary if we were ever able to move him.  I still think the Red Sox or Marlins would pick the whole $10 million up if we dealt him for a low level, lottery ticket prospect or a vet with a contract that would be somewhat similar to Vasquez.   

The problem internally that the Twins have in replacing Vasquez is that Cartaya and Camargo, two young catchers who showed the potential to be good hitting catchers, have both seen the luster of their offensive potential take a hit these last 2 minor league seasons.  Their hitting is trending DOWNWARD, not upward.  It doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

If Vasquez were traded and Cartaya or Camargo had to split time with Jeffers, that would not be "catastrophic."  What would be "catastrophic" would be injuries to Correa and Buxton that keep them out 100 games or more.  It would be Lewis hitting more like 2024 and nothing like 2023.  It would be Wallner and Larnach talking steps backward instead of forward.  It would be Lee looking overmatched.  It would be multiple pitching injuries.

There are players far more impactful to the Twins success or lack thereof than Vasquez, no matter how well he frames a pitch here and there.  I don't mean to minimize the importance of a competent defensive catcher, but come on.  The Twins 2025 season does not hang in the balance because of Christian Vasquez.  

Posted
12 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Triple A catchers who a team is willing to unload are almost by definition no better than the better of Cartaya and Camargo. There will always be Sandy León and René Rivera types available, but those guys don't hold steady jobs because they aren't really major league hitters. 

The question to ask in almost every trade scenario is "is this player more valuable to another team?" I think there are teams where there is an affirmative answer in the case of Paddack or Willi Castro. I'm not so sure it is the case with Vázquez. The other question is whether the player has value equal to or greater than their contract. In Vázquez' case the answer is almost certainly "no". Then the question is how much of the salary the trading team is willing to swallow. Most estimates in Vázquez' case, that is about $5M. Is $5M in salary relief worth it? 

Vazquez isn't really a major league hitter so what's the difference between him and Leon or Rivera types? $10 million is the answer.

I don't think they'll trade Vazquez because they wouldn't really save meaningful money. It'd just be making a move to make a move and you may as well keep the guy you know at that point. But replacing Vazquez is incredibly easy. As you said, there's always veteran defense only catchers available. Elias Diaz is the one I'd sign if you could save money by moving Vazquez and signing him.

Posted
5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Vazquez isn't really a major league hitter so what's the difference between him and Leon or Rivera types? $10 million is the answer.

I don't think they'll trade Vazquez because they wouldn't really save meaningful money. It'd just be making a move to make a move and you may as well keep the guy you know at that point. But replacing Vazquez is incredibly easy. As you said, there's always veteran defense only catchers available. Elias Diaz is the one I'd sign if you could save money by moving Vazquez and signing him.

Then there is no logical reason why any team would take Vasquez unless the prospect was that good. In.the eyes of the receiving team. Trading a prospect that you think can e a major league player makes no sense for building a club.  That leaves the prospects someone else likes and you don’t. That makes it difficult to trade.  The Polanco trade did not happen until the end of January so a trade is still a possibility.  

Posted
41 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

There is this thing called waivers where other teams release players who are no longer a fit for their roster. If Vazquez is no longer a Twin the team can claim one of those players on waivers to take his spot. 

Teams are also allowed to trade players with other teams. If Vazquez is no longer a Twin they can arrange a trade for a catcher on another team's AAA roster who they don't value as highly.

100%. No team cares that much about their backup catcher. Some of the best teams and how they acquired their backup catchers.

Dodgers: acquired as a throw in on a trade

Phillies: acquired in a minor league trade for a non prospect

Mets: claimed off waivers

Yankees: acquired with a RP in a backup catcher swap

Braves: claimed off waivers

 

Posted
2 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Then there is no logical reason why any team would take Vasquez unless the prospect was that good. In.the eyes of the receiving team. Trading a prospect that you think can e a major league player makes no sense for building a club.  That leaves the prospects someone else likes and you don’t. That makes it difficult to trade.  The Polanco trade did not happen until the end of January so a trade is still a possibility.  

A trade is always a possibility. I don't think it'll happen, though. And it's because the other team could just go sign Diaz or McCann or Grandal or Gomes or Maile. I think the Twins would have to eat more than $5 million to move him. Because a team could sign Diaz or Grandal to be their defense only catcher for less than 5 mil. Why would they want to pay Vazquez 5? Unless the Twins are attaching a prospect to him, and I think that's an even worse idea. His salary is so outsized with comparison to his abilities. Just like I'm sure the Tigers would love to move Javier Baez. Unfortunately for them, his contract is even bigger and longer. But he can't hit anymore and at some point defense just isn't enough to make up for it. Luckily the Twins only have 1 more year on this Vazquez deal.

Posted
3 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

I say if we can find a team to take Vasquez and his salary you have to do it, but only if we use the money saved to re invest it into improving this years team like a solid LHRP or RH OF. 

I'd be fine if they used that money to improve the team's catching situation.

Posted
1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

There is this thing called waivers where other teams release players who are no longer a fit for their roster. If Vazquez is no longer a Twin the team can claim one of those players on waivers to take his spot. 

Teams are also allowed to trade players with other teams. If Vazquez is no longer a Twin they can arrange a trade for a catcher on another team's AAA roster who they don't value as highly.

There is a reason a team places a catcher on waivers. Keep both Jeffers and Vasquez. Let's see what the Twins have in Cartaya before 2026.

Posted

Vazquez’ fWAR has always been above zero and the last two years have been 0.8 and 0.9.  He is consistently above replacement level (and if he were “full time” catcher, his fWAR would likely be higher because it is a counting stat).  This is in contrast with catchers like Sandy Leon, who rarely had fWAR above zero.  While I agree (and the stats support) that Vazquez is a bit overpaid for his output, he is not a scrap-heap catcher.  He brings real value that cannot be easily replaced and I don’t believe the Twins should just throw him by the wayside for nothing.  (Though I would not have a problem with a rational trade that improved the team for next year).

Posted
2 minutes ago, Dan Engebretson said:

Vazquez’ fWAR has always been above zero and the last two years have been 0.8 and 0.9.  He is consistently above replacement level (and if he were “full time” catcher, his fWAR would likely be higher because it is a counting stat).  This is in contrast with catchers like Sandy Leon, who rarely had fWAR above zero.  While I agree (and the stats support) that Vazquez is a bit overpaid for his output, he is not a scrap-heap catcher.  He brings real value that cannot be easily replaced and I don’t believe the Twins should just throw him by the wayside for nothing.  (Though I would not have a problem with a rational trade that improved the team for next year).

And his bWAR has been below 0 in both of his seasons with the Twins. And was below 0 in his short stint with the Astros the season before when his bat completely disappeared for them. If he were a "full-time" catcher his bWAR would likely be even lower and put him alongside a bunch of guys who signed minor league deals this offseason.

Posted

If not else the mid season trade deadline is also a option for a time of trades. Might know who the new owner is by then. Some other playoff bound teams starting catcher might get injured. That would make Vasquez a better trade candidate. True it wouldn't save the 10Mil but it would save the 5 mil most are talking about plus a better minor league prospect I suspect.

Posted

Congratulations Cody on your best article yet. Cards fans loved Molina but I don't think they really appreciated him & realize how much he impacted their club until he was gone. On paper, they looked better w/o Molina than with him with the addition of Willson Contreras & the same team. But w/o him they tanked & haven't been the same since. I'm not saying that Vazquez isn't overpaid or he's as good as Molina. What I'm saying is that he's the same type of catcher. Vazquez spent his entire 1st year getting to know his pitchers where his hitting took the backseat. When Cole Burns was asked about his main concern about going to BAL? He responded, " He really liked his relationship with MIL catchers & he realizes that it'd take a long time to establish that relationship with another catcher." Not all catchers do that, most get their computer printouts & go with it. It's not organic.

Catcher's value isn't the same as DHs or 1B where WAR & slugging are everything. This isn't Fantasy Baseball this is the real thing where defense, leadership, and command of the pitchers & the field are dominating factors for a catcher. I'm afraid that many will come to appreciate Vazquez far too late (including some whose opinions I respect), Too many undervalue Vazquez's abilities & overrate Jeffers, Camargo, Cartaya & Gasper & none of them should be our future starting catcher.

Acquire Desclavani, looks good on paper, get a bunch of fringey RPs, look good on paper. Don't trust Keirsey, get RH Margot (CF), looks good on paper. Pick up Richards, look good on paper. Get rid of Vazquez + $5M, looks good on paper. Jeffers is very good at 45% behind the plate increase to 55%, looks good on paper. We need Camargo, Cartaya & Gasper to cover 45%, looks good on paper. But when reality sets in where Camargo, Cartaya & Gasper can't handle 1% playing time. Jeffers will have to catch every day, he quickly falters & lands on the IL (like '22). We have to go to the FA scrap heap to get an expensive FA that wipes out any savings of dumping Vazquez & after Jeffers goes down we get our 2nd expensive FA catcher that'll put us in the hole. We go from Vazquez who knows our pitching staff very well to 2 inferior catchers that are complete strangers to our pitchers. How do you think that impacts our postseason hopes? Looking at past history & projections this is the most realistic scenario if we trade Vazquez.

Posted

There were two catchers who signed this offseason for around 8.5 million that were just as valuable as Vazquez last season.  If Vazquez fits perfectly into the Twins plan as a defensive C he is probably worth more to them than the rest of the League.  and since the argument is he is worth half what he is being paid.  and if he is well liked on the team and the payroll crunch is this season.  why not do this.  sign him to a 2 year 8 million extension.  (4 million per year) then restructure the contract so he gets paid 5 or 6 million this year instead of 10 with adding money on the back end of the deal.  make the contract something like 6 million in year one, 6.5 million in year 2 and 7 million in year 3.  that way we spread out the overpayment over 3 years instead of 1.  and while payroll is the biggest crunch this year, he has the lowest salary.  

Posted
1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

There are potentially catastrophic consequences of keeping Christian Vazquez. 80 games of replacement level performance might be enough to make the team miss the playoffs.

Vazquez was an -0,2 WAR last season. So was he the reason the team missed the PO's last season then? 

Posted
2 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

We are not talking Johnny Bench, Joe Mauer or Roy Campanella here.  We're talking Christian Vasquez.  We would be fine with him if he was making $3-$5 million.  But we signed him to a 3-year, $30 million dollar contract and he hits like the bat is a wet noodle.  

Vasquez is replaceable.  This is why there is always so much talk about still having to pay half his $10 million dollar salary if we were ever able to move him.  I still think the Red Sox or Marlins would pick the whole $10 million up if we dealt him for a low level, lottery ticket prospect or a vet with a contract that would be somewhat similar to Vasquez.   

The problem internally that the Twins have in replacing Vasquez is that Cartaya and Camargo, two young catchers who showed the potential to be good hitting catchers, have both seen the luster of their offensive potential take a hit these last 2 minor league seasons.  Their hitting is trending DOWNWARD, not upward.  It doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

If Vasquez were traded and Cartaya or Camargo had to split time with Jeffers, that would not be "catastrophic."  What would be "catastrophic" would be injuries to Correa and Buxton that keep them out 100 games or more.  It would be Lewis hitting more like 2024 and nothing like 2023.  It would be Wallner and Larnach talking steps backward instead of forward.  It would be Lee looking overmatched.  It would be multiple pitching injuries.

There are players far more impactful to the Twins success or lack thereof than Vasquez, no matter how well he frames a pitch here and there.  I don't mean to minimize the importance of a competent defensive catcher, but come on.  The Twins 2025 season does not hang in the balance because of Christian Vasquez.  

If Vazquez is the make or break determining success for this season TC is in big big trouble.

Posted
40 minutes ago, Brandon said:

There were two catchers who signed this offseason for around 8.5 million that were just as valuable as Vazquez last season.  If Vazquez fits perfectly into the Twins plan as a defensive C he is probably worth more to them than the rest of the League.  and since the argument is he is worth half what he is being paid.  and if he is well liked on the team and the payroll crunch is this season.  why not do this.  sign him to a 2 year 8 million extension.  (4 million per year) then restructure the contract so he gets paid 5 or 6 million this year instead of 10 with adding money on the back end of the deal.  make the contract something like 6 million in year one, 6.5 million in year 2 and 7 million in year 3.  that way we spread out the overpayment over 3 years instead of 1.  and while payroll is the biggest crunch this year, he has the lowest salary.  

Have you ever heard the phrase "throwing good money after bad"?

Posted
23 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Vazquez was an -0,2 WAR last season. So was he the reason the team missed the PO's last season then? 

Not the only reason, but one of them. A team with this budget can't afford to miss on their big $$ free agent signings.

Posted

I am surprised at how quickly everyone here is to dismiss what Vasquez brings to the team.  This is largely an issue of what we know and what we don't know.

How much value does he bring Jeffers on a day-to-day basis?
How much value does he bring to a relatively young pitching staff on a day-to-day basis?
What is his clubhouse presence?  Is his impact positive?

Team sports are always about more than what is on paper.  He was initially signed by the Twins to help bring stability to the position and leadership for the pitchers.  By all accounts he has done that.

Arguments can be made that you can get a statistical equivalent player for less.  That does not mean you will get a better fit.

Posted
1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Congratulations Cody on your best article yet. Cards fans loved Molina but I don't think they really appreciated him & realize how much he impacted their club until he was gone. On paper, they looked better w/o Molina than with him with the addition of Willson Contreras & the same team. But w/o him they tanked & haven't been the same since. I'm not saying that Vazquez isn't overpaid or he's as good as Molina. What I'm saying is that he's the same type of catcher. Vazquez spent his entire 1st year getting to know his pitchers where his hitting took the backseat. When Cole Burns was asked about his main concern about going to BAL? He responded, " He really liked his relationship with MIL catchers & he realizes that it'd take a long time to establish that relationship with another catcher." Not all catchers do that, most get their computer printouts & go with it. It's not organic.

Catcher's value isn't the same as DHs or 1B where WAR & slugging are everything. This isn't Fantasy Baseball this is the real thing where defense, leadership, and command of the pitchers & the field are dominating factors for a catcher. I'm afraid that many will come to appreciate Vazquez far too late (including some whose opinions I respect), Too many undervalue Vazquez's abilities & overrate Jeffers, Camargo, Cartaya & Gasper & none of them should be our future starting catcher.

Acquire Desclavani, looks good on paper, get a bunch of fringey RPs, look good on paper. Don't trust Keirsey, get RH Margot (CF), looks good on paper. Pick up Richards, look good on paper. Get rid of Vazquez + $5M, looks good on paper. Jeffers is very good at 45% behind the plate increase to 55%, looks good on paper. We need Camargo, Cartaya & Gasper to cover 45%, looks good on paper. But when reality sets in where Camargo, Cartaya & Gasper can't handle 1% playing time. Jeffers will have to catch every day, he quickly falters & lands on the IL (like '22). We have to go to the FA scrap heap to get an expensive FA that wipes out any savings of dumping Vazquez & after Jeffers goes down we get our 2nd expensive FA catcher that'll put us in the hole. We go from Vazquez who knows our pitching staff very well to 2 inferior catchers that are complete strangers to our pitchers. How do you think that impacts our postseason hopes? Looking at past history & projections this is the most realistic scenario if we trade Vazquez.

Margot doesn't look good on paper.  He looks good when no longer a TC.

Posted
29 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Vazquez was an -0,2 WAR last season. So was he the reason the team missed the PO's last season then? 

He was part of the reason

Posted
32 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Vazquez was an -0,2 WAR last season. So was he the reason the team missed the PO's last season then? 

Zebby was -0.7 bwar. So he was the reason the team missed the playoffs. He was pitching because Ryan was injured. Ryan was the reason. But Margot had a -0.9 bwar. Blame him.  Then there is Martin who had a -1.0 bwar, perhaps blame him.  I forgot whose spot he took, blame that person.  

Posted
3 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I am surprised at how quickly everyone here is to dismiss what Vasquez brings to the team.  This is largely an issue of what we know and what we don't know.

How much value does he bring Jeffers on a day-to-day basis?
How much value does he bring to a relatively young pitching staff on a day-to-day basis?
What is his clubhouse presence?  Is his impact positive?

Team sports are always about more than what is on paper.  He was initially signed by the Twins to help bring stability to the position and leadership for the pitchers.  By all accounts he has done that.

Arguments can be made that you can get a statistical equivalent player for less.  That does not mean you will get a better fit.

The team has said on more than one occasion that they emphasize clubhouse presence in their veteran free agent signings. That emphasis on clubhouse presence didn't prevent the team from falling apart in September and missing the playoffs. The Twins seem to continually provide fewer wins than you would expect on paper.

Posted
8 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Zebby was -0.7 bwar. So he was the reason the team missed the playoffs. He was pitching because Ryan was injured. Ryan was the reason. But Margot had a -0.9 bwar. Blame him.  Then there is Martin who had a -1.0 bwar, perhaps blame him.  I forgot whose spot he took, blame that person.  

More then enough blame to  go around last year  to ensure everybody gets a taste

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