The Potentially Catastrophic Repercussions of Trading Christian Vázquez

[Linus]

Just now, arby58 said:

OK, that was funny. From what I hear, Cartaya is a good defensive catcher. Could he possibly do worse than a 60 OPS+ offensively?

I keep seeing mixed reports on his defense so I don’t know what to say there. But yea the bar to clear with the bat is essentially a broomstick……….laying on the ground.

[stringer bell]

I agree that WAR is problematic especially evaluating defense, especially for catchers. That is why CERA in a case when the players have been alternated provides some helpful information. It is an apples to apples comparison and the runs allowed is tangible proof that the difference between the two behind the plate is negligible. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

4 minutes ago, arby58 said:

OK, that was funny. From what I hear, Cartaya is a good defensive catcher. Could he possibly do worse than a 60 OPS+ offensively?

Yes, Austin Hedges comes to my mind. OPS+ of 21 last season and Cleveland likes that enough to pay him 4mil next season, same as he got in 2024. Sandy Leon is a regular under 60 OPS+ guy. I will take Vazquez over either of these. Vazquez is overpaid, that is the doings of Falvey/Levine. 

As for Cartaya, his AA/AAA numbers translated to the ML will be Hedges like. And this is coming from someone who is very positive about acquiring Cartaya. But he is a project.

[arby58]

13 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Yes, Austin Hedges comes to my mind. OPS+ of 21 last season and Cleveland likes that enough to pay him 4mil next season, same as he got in 2024. Sandy Leon is a regular under 60 OPS+ guy. I will take Vazquez over either of these. Vazquez is overpaid, that is the doings of Falvey/Levine. 

As for Cartaya, his AA/AAA numbers translated to the ML will be Hedges like. And this is coming from someone who is very positive about acquiring Cartaya. But he is a project.

Hedges is a pure number 2 catcher - he had 146 plate appearances last year; Vasquez had more than twice that many (315). You can't  compare their roles.

Same with Leon - he didn't have any MLB plate appearances last year, In 2023, he had 44, and in 2022 he had 86. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

Like it or not we need Christian Vazquez this season. 

Gasper- Boston moved him around. So they didn't see him as a viable MLB catcher. Perhaps he can claim a utility role and be an emergency C for the team. Jury is very much out on this though. But is he is forced into any amount of time behind the plate I see Ryan Doumit all over again.

Camargo- The team gave him I believe 1 appearance at catcher last season. That doesn't spell confidence to me. 

Cartaya- He is a project that needs to go to St.Paul and see if he can bring his career back to life. Not a 2025 Twin. 

Yes Vazquez could be traded, but if we don't have money to pay him how are we going to be able to sign Diaz or McCann, the best C's left still available. And I'm not convinced that they are better than Christian. I'd prefer to take my chances with what we already have. My guess is so would our pitchers. I for one am not interested in Luke Maile

[Doctor Gast]

13 minutes ago, arby58 said:

I certainly try to agree with you as well, but this is premium hyperbole. When you have a 60 OPS+ as a regular player, you are an incredible drag on a team's offense. The defense would have to be Gold Glove worthy or the rest of your lineup absolute beasts - neither is/was the case. You make it sound like he should have gotten votes for team MVP.

Thank you for trying to agree with me. Back when pitchers had to bat & were a drag on the team's offense, were we concerned with their OPS+? No, we only look at how well they pitch. If we are talking about DH & 1Bmen then yeah they better have a darn good OPS+. That is their main job is to mash. Catching is vastly different in that the success of the team isn't on them mashing but how well they catch & all the nuances that go with it. Like many times I've stated before Jeffers is a great backup catcher but as a primary catcher he was completely out of his league, Catching was probably the main reason why we did so poorly as a team even with Correa & Gray in '22. I'm not making him out to be a MVP or GG (I said he was one of the reasons, not the main reason that we did well in '23). But his presence made Jeffers in tandem better, made the pitchers better, and made the team better. If we didn't have Vazquez or someone like him IMO we wouldn't have come close to compete in '23, that how important I think catching is.

[arby58]

17 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

As for Cartaya, his AA/AAA numbers translated to the ML will be Hedges like. And this is coming from someone who is very positive about acquiring Cartaya. But he is a project.

Cartaya is young - he was 3.4 years younger than average in AA and 4.7 years younger than average in AAA. He put up a .656 OPS at AA and .686 last year between AA and AAA. Those aren't exactly 'Hedges like' given his OPS has been well under .500 for five consecutive years.

[arby58]

2 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Thank you for trying to agree with me. Back when pitchers had to bat & were a drag on the team's offense, were we concerned with their OPS+? No, we only look at how well they pitch. If we are talking about DH & 1Bmen then yeah they better have a darn good OPS+. That is their main job is to mash. Catching is vastly different in that the success of the team isn't on them mashing but how well they catch & all the nuances that go with it. Like many times I've stated before Jeffers is a great backup catcher but as a primary catcher he was completely out of his league, Catching was probably the main reason why we did so poorly as a team even with Correa & Gray in '22. I'm not making him out to be a MVP or GG (I said he was one of the reasons, not the main reason that we did well in '23). But his presence made Jeffers in tandem better, made the pitchers better, and made the team better. If we didn't have Vazquez or someone like him IMO we wouldn't have come close to compete in '23, that how important I think catching is.

Except the defensive stats aren't all world. I appreciate your opinion, I would just like to see actual stats that match up with the claim. Even an fWAR of 0.8 (last year) isn't all that thrilling, and Jeffer's was more than twice that.

[sweetmusicviola16]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

I try to agree with you as much as I can but this -0.2 WAR is totally off. WAR doesn't come close to evaluate the real worth of a catcher, they focus nearly entirely on slugging, little focus on defense & ignore intangibles. The real worth of a catcher has little to do with his ability to slug but more to do with his defense & intangibles. Some WAR are worse than others but this WAR is the worst I've ever seen. To answer your question. Absolutely not. Vazquez is one of the reasons that brought us out the gutters in '22 to the success we had in '23 & kept us in the wildcard hunt in '24 until we didn't, with his defense & intangibles.  

I wish we didn't need Vazquez & his salary, but we do. I wish we had an elite defensive catcher in our system but we don't. So we are doomed until we do.

The fact of the matter is Doc, nobody is going to trade for Vazquez and his salary, or part of it, and give us a usable ML catcher in the deal. So the best option is keeping Christian. If not we are using Camargo or Gasper as our half time C. I don't want this. I want the team better not worse. I've read in this thread that we can trade him and not be worse and not have a catastrophy. Well I believe if Camargo is the other half of the tandem we will have just that.

[Parfigliano]

11 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Like it or not we need Christian Vazquez this season. 

Gasper- Boston moved him around. So they didn't see him as a viable MLB catcher. Perhaps he can claim a utility role and be an emergency C for the team. Jury is very much out on this though. But is he is forced into any amount of time behind the plate I see Ryan Doumit all over again.

Camargo- The team gave him I believe 1 appearance at catcher last season. That doesn't spell confidence to me. 

Cartaya- He is a project that needs to go to St.Paul and see if he can bring his career back to life. Not a 2025 Twin. 

Yes Vazquez could be traded, but if we don't have money to pay him how are we going to be able to sign Diaz or McCann, the best C's left still available. And I'm not convinced that they are better than Christian. I'd prefer to take my chances with what we already have. My guess is so would our pitchers. I for one am not interested in Luke Maile

The FO treats Camargo like he killed their dog

[Rod Carews Birthday]

If Vasquez were being paid $4M instead of $10M, we would all talk about how nice it is to have a solid defensive catcher as our backup.  Instead, at $10M, we are all convinced that the salary has to go, but since he's only worth half of his salary, he becomes nearly impossible to trade (without picking up $$).  I don't think there is a taker out there for a price that would make us happy, so I say why not try to push Jeffers toward 100-110 games this season with Vasquez being the true backup that his bat justifies.  We were roughly middle of the pack for catcher play last season, and that number is somewhat likely to improve with Jeffers getting more of the at bats. 

I don't think we know what we have in Cartaya except to say that he needs some AAA time to figure out his bat. I also don't think that the team thinks Camargo is the answer, and I'm pretty sure that Gaspar isn't more than an emergency catcher (ala Farmer).  Therefore I don't think that any of these guys are the answer for 2025.  2026?  Maybe.  We'll see.

[Riverbrian]

He has one year left. He's gone after this season.

If he doesn't revert back to pre- Twins contract form. I'll be calling for his release around June. 

Catching space will need to be cleared for anyone... don't care who... anyone that will be in a Twins uniform next year because we will need catching next season because he's gone... AND I DO NOT WANT TO SIGN THE NEXT VAZQUEZ at 3/30. 

Develop or Die

[Doctor Gast]

13 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Except the defensive stats aren't all world. I appreciate your opinion, I would just like to see actual stats that match up with the claim. Even an fWAR of 0.8 (last year) isn't all that thrilling, and Jeffer's was more than twice that.

I reread my text, when I used gutter I meant the catching, not the team & I did over-dramatize it. Although fWAR is a good measure for hitting catchers but IMO it doesn't do defensive catchers justice.

[sweetmusicviola16]

43 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Cartaya is young - he was 3.4 years younger than average in AA and 4.7 years younger than average in AAA. He put up a .656 OPS at AA and .686 last year between AA and AAA. Those aren't exactly 'Hedges like' given his OPS has been well under .500 for five consecutive years.

Well Hedges put up .968 OPS in AAA. So Cartaya with his AA/AAA OPS being in the 680's might get Hedges a SS award if things continue to translate out. 

I hope Cartaya succeeds in ML. It would be good for him and the Twins, or for whatever team. Hope its the Twins. We need future catchers.

[Fatbat]

8 hours ago, DJL44 said:

There are potentially catastrophic consequences of keeping Christian Vazquez. 80 games of replacement level performance might be enough to make the team miss the playoffs.

CV won’t play 80 games and he might just be average but his defense is why he gets paid 10M. If he hit .275 with 25 hr’s. He would be worth more $.  Saving a few $M in a trade probs doesn’t upgrade the position.

[chpettit19]

21 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

CV won’t play 80 games and he might just be average but his defense is why he gets paid 10M. If he hit .275 with 25 hr’s. He would be worth more $.  Saving a few $M in a trade probs doesn’t upgrade the position.

Vazquez has the 5th highest AAV for a catcher in baseball. He's not paid 10 mil for his defense, he's paid 10 mil because they thought he could hit at an at least league average level. Defense only catchers don't get paid 10 mil. They get half that at most. In 2019 he actually did hit .275 with 20 HRs. He hit .274 in 2022 before the Twins signed him. The Twins did not pay him 10 mil expecting him to hit an empty .220. Not at all.

I don't know where people get the idea that defense only catchers are expensive. They aren't. You can get them for 4 mil or less. Nobody pays 10 mil for a defense only catcher on purpose. Nobody.

[TopGunn#22]

I'm not really a fan of Vasquez but most of it is attributable to his contract.  $10 million a year for 3 years was a major over pay by Falvey.  I also have never been sold on Jeffers either. He's too inconsistent offensively and while he's shown SOME improvement defensively he's not winning a Gold Glove anytime, ever.  

So I'll play devils advocate in the thread:  With this being the last year of Vasquez's contract, see if he would take a 1 or 2 year extension at $4-4.5 million per year for 2026/2027 and trade Ryan Jeffers.

The Twins will get a LOT more back for Jeffers than they will for Vasquez.  I just don't see Jeffers as the "Catcher of the Future."  Keep Vasquez for a season (2026) or two (2027) at a reduced rate and let him mentor Cartaya/Camargo.  It's looking to me like there is not a MANDATE to cut any more salary, at least with a sale looming.  The Twins won't receive much salary savings in trading Vasquez either.

Jeffers has a BBTV of 16.2.  He is somewhat affordable.  What could the Twins get back from, say, the Miami Marlins for Vasquez??  The Marlins have the worst offensive output of any MLB team from their catchers.  They would probably LOVE to have Jeffers.  If it was up to me, I'd be on the phone with Miami and throwing some names around.  

 

[sweetmusicviola16]

We missed the oppurtunity to sign up C Reese McGuire. I've heard that he is pretty good at "pulling" the ball.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

6 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The team has said on more than one occasion that they emphasize clubhouse presence in their veteran free agent signings. That emphasis on clubhouse presence didn't prevent the team from falling apart in September and missing the playoffs. The Twins seem to continually provide fewer wins than you would expect on paper.

I am sorry, I don't understand this take.  Are you saying that the Twins melted down last Fall because Vazquez did not provide enough clubhouse leadership?  Are you saying that clubhouse leadership is not something the team should be focusing on?

If my memory serves, the Twins have been either regularly close to or above beginning of the year win projections.  What were they projected last year?  83-84 wins?  It was ugly because of how they got there.  I honestly don't remember the last time the Twins were decisively under win projections 

[T.O.]

8 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

There is a reason a team places a catcher on waivers. Keep both Jeffers and Vasquez. Let's see what the Twins have in Cartaya before 2026.

I was thinking they should trade Vasquez if they really needed to cut salary, but I'm starting to think it would be better to keep him the remaining year and have a good defensive catcher to split time with Jeffers. They probably wouldn't get much in return.

[DocBauer]

IF Vazquez was moved for all, or nearly all, of his salary, I would be on board with it. And it's not because he's a bad guy or some awful catcher. But he's been lousy with the bat, and is gone after this season. And you might be able to grab Diaz, Grandal, or McCann for $2-3M this late in the offseason, and have a few $M left over to try to add someone else. But if moving him costs a quality prospect, or only saves about $5M, it's just not worth it. Play Jeffers 100 games and hope for the best in regard to Vazquez's bat.

What's so confusing about me is the following:

.259/ .323/ .503/ .826 with 16 Dbls and 21 HR and 63 RBI while throwing out 25% of would be base stealers, which is down from his career percentage of 30%.

That's Jair Camargo in St Paul in 2023, after moving up and continuing to improve from his decent 2022 A+/AA numbers. 

I understand wanting to play the ML guys who are earning bigger $, but to just ignore a kid with power and a strong arm and settle for a 60 OPS just makes no sense to me. 

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Vazquez has the 5th highest AAV for a catcher in baseball. He's not paid 10 mil for his defense, he's paid 10 mil because they thought he could hit at an at least league average level. Defense only catchers don't get paid 10 mil. They get half that at most. In 2019 he actually did hit .275 with 20 HRs. He hit .274 in 2022 before the Twins signed him. The Twins did not pay him 10 mil expecting him to hit an empty .220. Not at all.

I don't know where people get the idea that defense only catchers are expensive. They aren't. You can get them for 4 mil or less. Nobody pays 10 mil for a defense only catcher on purpose. Nobody.

I get the fact that we signed him expecting.275 and 20 hr. There was downside risk that we were aware of but he handles pitchers really well. He is an asset behind the plate and a liability with a bat in hand.  Maybe he will regress upward and is traded out. Maybe he plays out his contract as a twin? At $10M, he doesn’t break the bank. He may even return a lottery ticket at the trade deadline or lace a game winning double in the ALCS for us.  Its impossible to tell what ‘25 has instore but its likely to not be anything like ‘24. 

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

I get the fact that we signed him expecting.275 and 20 hr. There was downside risk that we were aware of but he handles pitchers really well. He is an asset behind the plate and a liability with a bat in hand.  Maybe he will regress upward and is traded out. Maybe he plays out his contract as a twin? At $10M, he doesn’t break the bank. He may even return a lottery ticket at the trade deadline of lace a game winning double in the ALCS for us.  Its impossible to tell what ‘25 has instore but its likely to not be anything like ‘24. 

I don't think they expected .275 and 20, I think they expected him to be average, though. There's downside risk with every player, but if the Twins had known he'd OPS+ 60 for them for the entire contract they never would've brought him in. They would've offered him 1 year, 3-5 mil and said "take it or leave it." Everyone knew the contract was an overpay from the beginning, but nobody expected this. He's ok behind the plate and a liability with the bat. He's not a star defender, he's just a solid one. 

Sure, maybe he has a season where he does a drastic turn around at the plate in his mid-30s, but it isn't likely. There's really not much the Twins can do at this point. Nobody is taking that deal and with all the money they'd have to eat to trade him they couldn't afford much in terms of an upgrade. I think Elias Diaz is an upgrade and they could get him for that 3-5 mil they should've paid Vazquez, but he's not a significant upgrade and I don't expect them to make that swap. At this point all they can do is hope Vazquez doesn't get worse. Behind or at the plate. If everyone else stays healthy and does their job he's not going to kill the team, but he isn't helping it either.

[bean5302]

Let me help. I read the headline and answer with "None" Replacing a AAA caliber player isn't hard. If trading a AAA caliber player has "catastrophic" consequences, something is seriously wrong with the team.

Just another ridiculously over-dramatic article from some crazed Vazquez supporter. He's not an MLB caliber player. Give it up.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

So I'll play devils advocate in the thread:  With this being the last year of Vasquez's contract, see if he would take a 1 or 2 year extension at $4-4.5 million per year for 2026/2027 and trade Ryan Jeffers.

What in the world has Vazquez done in a Twins uniform that makes you want to lock him up until he's 36 years old?

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Are you saying that clubhouse leadership is not something the team should be focusing on?

The on the field production wins a lot more games than "clubhouse leadership". If you want leadership, hire a manager. If you want a baseball player, get someone who can hit the ball.

[twinstalker]

27 yrs old is prime age for a hitter and slightly over the hill for a catcher.  Jeffers is not up and coming.  He's there.

Maybe I misunderstood why it's bad that Vazquez is traded?  We have backup catchers, and Jeffers would get a few more ABs, probably.  And it saves $10 million that apparently needs saving.

[Otaknam]

I believe that there are several reasons Vazquez plays 50% of the time. He is a better defender than Jeffers and it helps to keep Jeffers healthier. But I think a significant reason is the ludicrous $10 million Vazquez contract. The front office knows it made a mistake signing Vazquez to that contract. Vasquez should play every fourth or fifth day, like any backup, non hitting catcher. But that would magnify what a mistake the Vasquez contract is. So the front office wants Rocco to play him to receive some payback, with the excuse that it keeps Jeffers healthier. And Rocco goes along with it to keep his job. 

[stringer bell]

46 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

I believe that there are several reasons Vazquez plays 50% of the time. He is a better defender than Jeffers and it helps to keep Jeffers healthier. But I think a significant reason is the ludicrous $10 million Vazquez contract. The front office knows it made a mistake signing Vazquez to that contract. Vasquez should play every fourth or fifth day, like any backup, non hitting catcher. But that would magnify what a mistake the Vasquez contract is. So the front office wants Rocco to play him to receive some payback, with the excuse that it keeps Jeffers healthier. And Rocco goes along with it to keep his job. 

A backup catcher plays more than "every fourth or fifth day". With few exceptions, the second catcher is closer to an alternate than a backup. That is the way of the world in 2020's baseball. I can see no scenario in which Jeffers (or Vázquez) catches more than 105-110 games (two-thirds).

We fans aren't privy to how banged up Jeffers and Vázquez have been with their job-sharing arrangement the last two years. The way Rocco has stuck to it indicates to me that he's sure he's right about splitting time down the middle and that he believes it's the right thing to do to keep both on the active roster. I would hope that Baldelli could adjust slightly, letting the better player catch two consecutive games if there's an off-day in between and perhaps using the better player on consecutive days when it is a night game following a day game. That would get the better player (Jeffers) somewhere between 90 and 100 starts. 

[DJL44]

38 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

A backup catcher plays more than "every fourth or fifth day". With few exceptions, the second catcher is closer to an alternate than a backup. That is the way of the world in 2020's baseball. I can see no scenario in which Jeffers (or Vázquez) catches more than 105-110 games (two-thirds).

If they don't add another bat, they're going to want to use Jeffers as the DH occasionally.