Randy Dobnak’s Journey Back: A 2025 Role in Sight?

[Cody Christie]

Randy Dobnak fought his way back to the Twins in 2024. Does he have a role with the club for 2025?

Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

 

Randy Dobnak's story has been filled with the twists and turns typical of an undrafted free agent, along with his rise to the big leagues that came faster than anyone could have expected. From an Uber-driving minor leaguer to a fan-favorite starting pitcher, his early success with the Twins earned him a surprising five-year, $9.25 million contract extension in 2021. At the time, the Twins saw the deal as a low-risk investment in a pitcher who had carved out a reliable role. Three years later, that contract has become a regret, a reminder of the volatility that comes with early extensions.

Dobnak's extension seemed like a safe bet when the ink dried in 2021. After all, he had posted a 3.12 ERA with 1.27 WHIP and a 142 ERA+ over his first two seasons, and his mix of ground-ball-inducing sinkers and a serviceable slider made him a valuable piece at the back end of the rotation. Unfortunately, a mix of injuries and poor performance derailed those plans. The 2021 season saw Dobnak struggle mightily, and his next two years were marred by a stubborn tendon injury in his pitching hand. His ERA ballooned to 7.64 in 2021, and he never fully regained traction with the big-league club.

As the contract stretches into its fourth year, the Twins are left holding the bag. Dobnak's deal, which runs through 2025 with a $1 million buyout for 2026, gives the team little financial flexibility. While it's not a bank-breaking figure, it's a frustrating line item for a pitcher who has contributed minimally at the MLB level since early 2021. Still, the structure of the deal has its benefits. The guaranteed money allows the Twins to pass Dobnak through waivers without much concern that another team will claim him because no team is eager to pick up what's left of his contract.

Despite his struggles and injury woes, Dobnak has slowly reestablished himself at Triple-A St. Paul. His 2024 season started as a rebuilding effort, focused primarily on regaining command of his offspeed offerings. Dobnak spent time in the Saints’ rotation and bullpen, compiling a 4.25 ERA in 24 appearances with the Saints. In a hitter-friendly league, he limited batters to a .395 SLG and a .739 OPS, 24 points lower than the league average. After years of fighting through injuries and poor performance, it was a step in the right direction. 

Dobnak made his triumphant return to the big-league level in 2024 after being relegated to the minors since 2021. Since he was stretched out, he pitched multiple innings in three of his five appearances, including being asked to finish three games. One bad appearance against the White Sox (2 ER in 2/3 IP) hurt his overall numbers for the year. However, he ended the year with one earned run allowed, a home run, over his final five innings pitched. For a team needing consistency out of the bullpen, Dobnak’s performance might point to a more significant role in his contract’s final year. 

What does 2025 hold for Dobnak? It’s still unclear, but his resurgence at Triple-A has opened the door for a potential role with the Twins next season. His days as a full-time starter may be behind him, but there’s always room for a versatile pitcher who can spot-start or provide innings in relief. His ability to eat innings when healthy gives him value on a staff that could use durability, especially with the uncertainties surrounding younger pitchers like Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa. In a sense, Dobnak has done precisely what the Twins needed him to do by rebuilding value, even if only at a minor-league level.

Minnesota might have bigger aspirations in the rotation, with the likes of Pablo López, Bailey Ober, and Joe Ryan headlining the group, but depth is always a concern. The team learned the hard way that pitching injuries can mount quickly. In that context, a healthy Dobnak is a valuable insurance policy, especially since he is already on the payroll. The club can stash him at Triple-A and call him up when needed, without worrying about losing him to another team on waivers.

For Dobnak, the road back to the majors has been arduous. His long-term contract, once viewed as a team-friendly steal, now serves as a reminder of the risks tied to early-career extensions. However, the Twins aren’t entirely hamstrung. Dobnak’s recent success at Triple-A suggests he still has something left in the tank, and his contract’s structure provides the team with flexibility. 

In a best-case scenario, Dobnak can carve out a niche in 2025 as a swingman, a role that perfectly suits his skill set. Worst-case? The Twins are on the hook for what remains of his deal, and they’ll need to look elsewhere for pitching depth. Either way, Dobnak’s journey is far from over, and his ability to adapt could write a new chapter in his unpredictable career.

What role will Dobnak fill in 2025? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

 

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[LambchoP]

I think Dobber is pretty much cooked as a viable starter at the big league level, especially with all the younger prospects we have that are close to making their debuts. Maybe give him a shot at a long relief role in the pen. We should have a good handful of power arms down there, but most of them thrive in short, one inning appearances. A guy like Dobnak who can be first out of the pen and throw 2 or 3 innings every couple days could be very useful and take a lot of strain off of our pen. Eventually there will be injuries to our rotation, meaning we'll be running out guys like Festa, Mathews and Morris who will probably have some short starts. We haven't had a reliable multi inning guy for awhile now. Dobnak and possibly Paddack could fill those rolls.

[DJL44]

They should probably send Dobnak to Wichita. He's taking innings in St. Paul that would be better used on their starting pitcher prospects (Festa, Morris, Raya, Matthews, Headrick, Adams, Lewis).

[Vanimal46]

If Dobnak has a role on the 2025 Twins, something went very, very wrong. He’s been a sunk cost for 3 years. 

[CRF]

My God...NO!

[bean5302]

Dobnak's a nice story, but his stuff doesn't play at the MLB level, and we saw that in some small sample sizes last year. He's not on the 40 man roster, but there are a lot of arms at or knocking at the AAA door level. I think the Twins have probably seen everything Dobnak can do at this point. Whatever spot he can go in the minors to develop a better fastball is where they should put him. I don't think he has a way to see game time, but he's a sunk cost.

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

If Dobnak has a role on the 2025 Twins, something went very, very wrong. He’s been a sunk cost for 3 years. 

He could fill the Winder, Jackson role in 2025. Hopefully more effectively..

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Patzky said:

He could fill the Winder, Jackson role in 2025. Hopefully more effectively..

I think Winder and Jackson are both better than anything you can expect from Dobnak without a major change to Dobnak's arsenal. 

[Schmoeman5]

5 appearances in 2024 for close to 2 million earned. Where can I sign up?

[ashbury]

Betteridge's Law of Headlines suggests that the answer to the headline question is "No."

[ashbury]

10 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Dobnak's a nice story, but his stuff doesn't play at the MLB level, and we saw that in some small sample sizes last year.

Yes, and we saw it also in larger samples at AAA.  His MLB OPS-against was in the low .800s and his AAA OPS-against was in the low .700s.  The majors are harder than the minors; his results are reasonably congruent. 

[tony&rodney]

Dobnak will always be there if everything collapses. He has been a good teammate in St. Paul.

[djm24]

First of all, I never wanted to leave my "two cents" on a comment board such as I his. But I've had a change of heart and these will undoubtedly be the ONLY comments I will ever make here. So, you great authoritarians can criticize me all you want.

Thank you, Cody, for your very respectful article about Randy.. I enjoyed reading it. However, it appears that when ANY article about Dobnak is written, it draws out the Dobnak naysayers, criticizers and, of course, the haters, who just LOVE to leave their negative comments. Randy, like all of us, is not immortal. He is not the Twins "miracle worker". None of the players nor anyone employed by the organization are. I give him much credit for attempting to establish himself as a quality major league pitcher; one who is respected by the organization as well as the fans. Yes, he was given a nice contract and tried to prove to all that he was worthy of that contract. Obviously he did not intentionally injure his finger.That type of injury could have end the careers of other pitchers. But Randy was and is persistent in "working his way back".

It is really sad that there are Twins players who are being paid salaries MUCH larger than Randy's and, according to some fans, have not "performed up to expectations". You know who they are. But do they receive as much criticism as Dobnak? You have to agree that, given the opportunity, most people would have been foolish not to accept the contract that Dobnak was offered. The amount of his contract - $9 million-,plus is miniscule compared to that of the SUPPOSEDLY superstar players who underperform and/or are frequently injured.

So, as a Dobnak fan since he first signed as an undrafted player, I say, give the guy a chance. I would LOVE to see him given a "change of scenery" and a chance with another team. Obviously unlike many Twins fans, perhaps the fans of another team would appreciate him more.

I realize all of you people have a right to your opinions and to post your comments. But please try to make them respectful.

I apologize for my rambling here. But the hat do you expect from a woman? 😒

So, criticize me all you want. But actually I don't care!!!

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Yes, and we saw it also in larger samples at AAA.  His MLB OPS-against was in the low .800s and his AAA OPS-against was in the low .700s.  The majors are harder than the minors.  His results are reasonably congruent.  If we want a steady supply of worse than average major-league innings (MLB OPS in 2024 was low .700s), Randy's your man!

Dobnak pitched pretty well in AAA relative to his peers.
Of the 130 pitchers with at least 60 innings, Dobnak ranked as follows:
ERA
Top 25 - 3.78
Dobnak - 4.25 (#42/130)
Median - 4.59

FIP
Top 25 - 4.14
Dobnak - 4.54 (#54/130)
Median - 4.74

There's a reason Dobnak got an opportunity; it was because he earned it with results. There's also a reason it took so long to get that opportunity; it was because the front office thought it was probably smoke and mirrors, and it was.

[DocBauer]

His rise was a great story. I've never had a problem with his contract. Its really not for much, should never have a negative affect on the rest of the payroll, and as pointed out previously, it's allowed him to be the "good soldier" who's been added, cut, and then re-signed with the Saints.

While he really never was anything but a backend starter, he filled that role decently, and probably would have for a couple more years except that his finger got hurt. I applaud him for not giving up on his dream. If he continues to persue it beyond 2025, I'm betting it will be in a different organization.

As far as his role in 2025, despite all the talented young arms at AAA next season, there's always room for depth. Guys get hurt, guys get promoted, and he'll be a swing man for the Saints. I think he'd have to take another step forward before he'd see time with the Twins again.

[ashbury]

5 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Dobnak pitched pretty well in AAA relative to his peers.
Of the 130 pitchers with at least 60 innings, Dobnak ranked as follows:
ERA
Top 25 - 3.78
Dobnak - 4.25 (#42/130)
Median - 4.59

FIP
Top 25 - 4.14
Dobnak - 4.54 (#54/130)
Median - 4.74

There's a reason Dobnak got an opportunity; it was because he earned it with results. There's also a reason it took so long to get that opportunity; it was because the front office thought it was probably smoke and mirrors, and it was.

His peers in AAA don't in general belong in the majors.  They put up their numbers against batters who don't belong in the majors either. 

I know you want to avoid small-sample-size, but the threshold of 60 innings contains an unintended bias, as it represents perhaps a few up-and-coming arms but mostly is a group of pitchers who their major league front offices felt were better deployed at AAA than in the majors.  Probably it would be wise to start by sorting by age to find a cohort of similar pitchers.

Pitcher or batter, a player wanting to contribute at the major league level needs to put up numbers far superior to the crowd in AAA.  "Pretty well" gets you overmatched at the next level up.  Smoke and mirrors was no factor for Dobnak at AAA, and his major league numbers were in line with what could be expected from his performance in AAA; I very much doubt that the FO was doing anything other than calling up a fresh arm to replace some similar ones they were DFA'ing right and left.

We're basically finding different ways to say "replacement level" for a player in his age-29 season  An article speculating about the role for such a player kind of answers its own headline question.

He needs to improve over what we've seen the past several seasons to have a role.  Every year unexpected good things happen, and I'll always root for him, but ever since his finger injury it hasn't happened for Dobnak.

 

[rv78]

His innings would be replaced easily on the big league roster with Gary Gaetti.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

4 hours ago, djm24 said:

First of all, I never wanted to leave my "two cents" on a comment board such as I his. But I've had a change of heart and these will undoubtedly be the ONLY comments I will ever make here. So, you great authoritarians can criticize me all you want.

Thank you, Cody, for your very respectful article about Randy.. I enjoyed reading it. However, it appears that when ANY article about Dobnak is written, it draws out the Dobnak naysayers, criticizers and, of course, the haters, who just LOVE to leave their negative comments. Randy, like all of us, is not immortal. He is not the Twins "miracle worker". None of the players nor anyone employed by the organization are. I give him much credit for attempting to establish himself as a quality major league pitcher; one who is respected by the organization as well as the fans. Yes, he was given a nice contract and tried to prove to all that he was worthy of that contract. Obviously he did not intentionally injure his finger.That type of injury could have end the careers of other pitchers. But Randy was and is persistent in "working his way back".

It is really sad that there are Twins players who are being paid salaries MUCH larger than Randy's and, according to some fans, have not "performed up to expectations". You know who they are. But do they receive as much criticism as Dobnak? You have to agree that, given the opportunity, most people would have been foolish not to accept the contract that Dobnak was offered. The amount of his contract - $9 million-,plus is miniscule compared to that of the SUPPOSEDLY superstar players who underperform and/or are frequently injured.

So, as a Dobnak fan since he first signed as an undrafted player, I say, give the guy a chance. I would LOVE to see him given a "change of scenery" and a chance with another team. Obviously unlike many Twins fans, perhaps the fans of another team would appreciate him more.

I realize all of you people have a right to your opinions and to post your comments. But please try to make them respectful.

I apologize for my rambling here. But the hat do you expect from a woman? 😒

So, criticize me all you want. But actually I don't care!!!

Rambling or not, great first post. 

IMO, Dobber is an emergency option, but that contract is still an absolute steal. No regret, not even a second thought. 
 

welcome to TD.

[djm24]

2 hours ago, DocBauer said:

His rise was a great story. I've never had a problem with his contract. Its really not for much, should never have a negative affect on the rest of the payroll, and as pointed out previously, it's allowed him to be the "good soldier" who's been added, cut, and then re-signed with the Saints.

While he really never was anything but a backend starter, he filled that role decently, and probably would have for a couple more years except that his finger got hurt. I applaud him for not giving up on his dream. If he continues to persue it beyond 2025, I'm betting it will be in a different organization.

As far as his role in 2025, despite all the talented young arms at AAA next season, there's always room for depth. Guys get hurt, guys get promoted, and he'll be a swing man for the Saints. I think he'd have to take another step forward before he'd see time with the Twins again.

Thanks, Doc. It's great to read your respectful comments regarding Dobnak. I agree that he'll have to take another step forward to have a chance to stick with the Twins. According to Gardenhire, he has a good attitude, is a great teammate and has done much for the community. Guys like that you hope can realize their dream.

 

[Fatbat]

How can $2M/yr possibly hamstring a MLB team budget. Dobber, if healthy, should be tried as an opener for 2 of the young SP’s. 

[DJL44]

10 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Dobber, if healthy, should be tried as an opener for 2 of the young SP’s. 

He can open for Raya in St. Paul then.

[Vanimal46]

11 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

IMO, Dobber is an emergency option, but that contract is still an absolute steal. No regret, not even a second thought.

It’s a rounding error for the organization, but in no universe has his contract been an absolute steal over the last 3 years. 

[old nurse]

13 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

It’s a rounding error for the organization, but in no universe has his contract been an absolute steal over the last 3 years. 

In no universe can you predict the pulley tendon injury and the resulting changes in what he could do 

[David Maro]

Maybe Dennis Quaid is available to play him in the movie.It was a nice story,but all storys do have endings.It was time to move on probably 2 years ago.The Saints are a AAA team now,not Independent League.Players there are working to make the big club and his time is up.

[Otaknam]

The Dobnak signing was always a head scratcher. He did little to earn that contract, and has done even less since then. He has always been a four inning pitcher, so it’s unrealistic to think he is more than that. Another mistake by the front office.

[D.C Twins]

17 hours ago, djm24 said:

First of all, I never wanted to leave my "two cents" on a comment board such as I his. But I've had a change of heart and these will undoubtedly be the ONLY comments I will ever make here. So, you great authoritarians can criticize me all you want.

Thank you, Cody, for your very respectful article about Randy.. I enjoyed reading it. However, it appears that when ANY article about Dobnak is written, it draws out the Dobnak naysayers, criticizers and, of course, the haters, who just LOVE to leave their negative comments. Randy, like all of us, is not immortal. He is not the Twins "miracle worker". None of the players nor anyone employed by the organization are. I give him much credit for attempting to establish himself as a quality major league pitcher; one who is respected by the organization as well as the fans. Yes, he was given a nice contract and tried to prove to all that he was worthy of that contract. Obviously he did not intentionally injure his finger.That type of injury could have end the careers of other pitchers. But Randy was and is persistent in "working his way back".

It is really sad that there are Twins players who are being paid salaries MUCH larger than Randy's and, according to some fans, have not "performed up to expectations". You know who they are. But do they receive as much criticism as Dobnak? You have to agree that, given the opportunity, most people would have been foolish not to accept the contract that Dobnak was offered. The amount of his contract - $9 million-,plus is miniscule compared to that of the SUPPOSEDLY superstar players who underperform and/or are frequently injured.

So, as a Dobnak fan since he first signed as an undrafted player, I say, give the guy a chance. I would LOVE to see him given a "change of scenery" and a chance with another team. Obviously unlike many Twins fans, perhaps the fans of another team would appreciate him more.

I realize all of you people have a right to your opinions and to post your comments. But please try to make them respectful.

I apologize for my rambling here. But the hat do you expect from a woman? 😒

So, criticize me all you want. But actually I don't care!!!

I'm a huge Dobnak fan! By all accounts, he is a great guy and teammate!

I'm glad he got paid... and no, his salary is not holding the Twins back compared to MANY other issues. 

But, I do have eyes wide open that he is unlikely to contribute to any playoff caliber Twins team. 

[bean5302]

14 hours ago, ashbury said:

...I know you want to avoid small-sample-size, but the threshold of 60 innings contains an unintended bias...

No, it represented me not wanting to put relievers into the mix, and when I went to 40IP on my Fangraphs.com sort, I had dozens of relievers showing up. If Dobnak wasn't pitching well enough, the Twins wouldn't have added him to the 40 man and called him up.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

18 hours ago, djm24 said:

First of all, I never wanted to leave my "two cents" on a comment board such as I his. But I've had a change of heart and these will undoubtedly be the ONLY comments I will ever make here. So, you great authoritarians can criticize me all you want.

Thank you, Cody, for your very respectful article about Randy.. I enjoyed reading it. However, it appears that when ANY article about Dobnak is written, it draws out the Dobnak naysayers, criticizers and, of course, the haters, who just LOVE to leave their negative comments. Randy, like all of us, is not immortal. He is not the Twins "miracle worker". None of the players nor anyone employed by the organization are. I give him much credit for attempting to establish himself as a quality major league pitcher; one who is respected by the organization as well as the fans. Yes, he was given a nice contract and tried to prove to all that he was worthy of that contract. Obviously he did not intentionally injure his finger.That type of injury could have end the careers of other pitchers. But Randy was and is persistent in "working his way back".

It is really sad that there are Twins players who are being paid salaries MUCH larger than Randy's and, according to some fans, have not "performed up to expectations". You know who they are. But do they receive as much criticism as Dobnak? You have to agree that, given the opportunity, most people would have been foolish not to accept the contract that Dobnak was offered. The amount of his contract - $9 million-,plus is miniscule compared to that of the SUPPOSEDLY superstar players who underperform and/or are frequently injured.

So, as a Dobnak fan since he first signed as an undrafted player, I say, give the guy a chance. I would LOVE to see him given a "change of scenery" and a chance with another team. Obviously unlike many Twins fans, perhaps the fans of another team would appreciate him more.

I realize all of you people have a right to your opinions and to post your comments. But please try to make them respectful.

I apologize for my rambling here. But the hat do you expect from a woman? 😒

So, criticize me all you want. But actually I don't care!!!

Please do not make this your last post, there needs to be more like this to offset the vitriol.

Considering the holes in the bullpen, Dobnak will be given the opportunity. Look how long it took Cole Sands to provide value.  You never know when they will figure it out.

Regarding Festa, et al, Dobnak would not be "taking innings" from these guys.  Even if Dobnak doesn't go crazy in the majors, there is always a need for AAAA guys, especially in the pen.  

[Jeff K]

19 hours ago, djm24 said:

First of all, I never wanted to leave my "two cents" on a comment board such as I his. But I've had a change of heart and these will undoubtedly be the ONLY comments I will ever make here. So, you great authoritarians can criticize me all you want.

Thank you, Cody, for your very respectful article about Randy.. I enjoyed reading it. However, it appears that when ANY article about Dobnak is written, it draws out the Dobnak naysayers, criticizers and, of course, the haters, who just LOVE to leave their negative comments. Randy, like all of us, is not immortal. He is not the Twins "miracle worker". None of the players nor anyone employed by the organization are. I give him much credit for attempting to establish himself as a quality major league pitcher; one who is respected by the organization as well as the fans. Yes, he was given a nice contract and tried to prove to all that he was worthy of that contract. Obviously he did not intentionally injure his finger.That type of injury could have end the careers of other pitchers. But Randy was and is persistent in "working his way back".

It is really sad that there are Twins players who are being paid salaries MUCH larger than Randy's and, according to some fans, have not "performed up to expectations". You know who they are. But do they receive as much criticism as Dobnak? You have to agree that, given the opportunity, most people would have been foolish not to accept the contract that Dobnak was offered. The amount of his contract - $9 million-,plus is miniscule compared to that of the SUPPOSEDLY superstar players who underperform and/or are frequently injured.

So, as a Dobnak fan since he first signed as an undrafted player, I say, give the guy a chance. I would LOVE to see him given a "change of scenery" and a chance with another team. Obviously unlike many Twins fans, perhaps the fans of another team would appreciate him more.

I realize all of you people have a right to your opinions and to post your comments. But please try to make them respectful.

I apologize for my rambling here. But the hat do you expect from a woman? 😒

So, criticize me all you want. But actually I don't care!!!

I won't criticize you.  I simply disagree.  There has been ample evidence that his pitching doesn't get enough outs in the majors.  He will do a nice job this season in Rochester.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Jeff K said:

I won't criticize you.  I simply disagree.  There has been ample evidence that his pitching doesn't get enough outs in the majors.  He will do a nice job this season in Rochester.

Jeff K’s response is a respectful disagreement. Good on you.

Personally I expect Dobnak to shuttle up to the Twins this year, pitch a few innings and then be waived yet again. Except this waiver will coincide with a KC pitching injury and the Royals will claim him, turn him into a stud pitcher  and Dobnak will have three wins against the Twins with a 1.47 ERA!!! Or maybe not😀