In-House Roster Decisions the Twins Need to Make in November

[Matthew Lenz]

As a preview to the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook--available exclusively to Caretakers as a series of in-depth articles on the site, this year--let’s take a look at the Minnesota Twins' in-house roster decisions heading into the 2024-2025 offseason.

Image courtesy of © Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Every year, teams enter the offseason having to decide which arbitration-eligible players to tender, which pending free agents to make a qualifying offer to, and which prospects to protect from that offseason’s Rule 5 Draft. This offseason is no exception for the Minnesota Twins. While they do have some easy decisions to make, they also have some tough calls, and we’re going to preview them for you.

Arbitration
A couple weeks ago, MLB Trade Rumors posted their projected arbitration salaries for the upcoming season. Here are the team’s 13 eligible players:

Eight of the 13 players are pretty much guaranteed to be tendered, but the other five are tough calls. Can they afford Willi Castro? Is Alex Kirilloff’s draft and prospect pedigree enough to overcome multiple years of injuries and inconsistent performance? Will the Twins see value in retaining Michael Tonkin, Justin Topa, or Jorge Alcalá for a combined $4.3 million, or will they explore cheaper (but riskier) relief options on the open market? They'll have to make all those decisions by roughly mid-November, when players must either be tendered arbitration or made free agents.

Qualifying Offers
Qualifying offers are limited to pending free agents who have never received one before and who spent the entire season on the Twins roster. 

This means the Twins have decisions to make on Max Kepler, Caleb Thielbar, and Anthony DeSclafani. They should be extremely easy decisions to make, but regardless, they are decisions that need to be made within five days of the conclusion of the World Series.

40-Man Roster
Until we know whom the Twins decide to tender, it's unclear how many 40-man spots will be available. There are two prospects in a tier of their own as would-be Rule 5-eligible players this fall, and they are 2020 4th- and 5th-round picks Marco Raya and Kala’i Rosario. There are some fringier players who are newly eligible whom the Twins will need to consider adding, or risk losing: Travis Adams, José Salas, Ricardo Velez, Christian MacLeod, Pierson Ohl, and Jaylen Nowlin. They also have players whom they previously left unprotected to consider, including: Will Holland, Jefferson Morales, Rubel Céspedes, and Ricardo Olivar. This is by no means a comprehensive list, but just some of the most likely names that are under consideration for protection ahead of the mid-November deadline. If they want to protect anyone beyond Raya and Rosario, they'll probably need to create an extra spot or two, which could mean an extra non-tender.

If you were in a position to make these decisions, which players would you tender? Are you handing out any qualifying offers? Which prospect(s) are you protecting? Let us know in the comments, and stay tuned for more in-depth coverage in the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook!

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[tony&rodney]

I believe that Tonkin is the only player nontendered from the list above. There will be no QO from the Twins.

The 40 person roster is pretty difficult to put together. Every team has issues when putting together their roster and sometimes trades early in the offseason influence who lands on the list. I could see any of seven names from the tendered list moved in trades, depending on how proactive Falvey decides to be this offseason. I agree that Raya and Rosario will be put on the roster and believe that there is a chance that MacLeod and Nowlin also find themselves on the 40 list.

Once again, Falvey gets a chance to put together the roster he wants for the upcoming season. It should be interesting.

 

[DJL44]

If I read that correctly, they will just pick up Alcala's club option. Everyone on the arbitration list is worth that salary if they're worth a roster spot. The only decisions are whether they want to keep Tonkin and Kirilloff around at all.

Marco Raya is the only sure minor leaguer to add to the 40 man. I am going to guess that other organizations will have better players who they can't protect. The Twins should be making calls on those guys since they have room on the roster. Grab a guy who looks interesting as a Rule 5 pick and trade something for them so you can option them instead of keeping them on the roster all season.

 

[FlyingFinn]

Raya is the only one who will be added to the 40 man IMO. I had MacLeod earlier but his fastball is topping out near 90 mph so I don't think other teams will pick him in the draft even though he's a LH starter.

[Seansy]

I'm going to assume everyone arb eligible is kept aside from Tonkin.

Cutting AK only saves 1M over a min salary guy and I don't think the FO and coaches want to give up on him despite the injuries.

There is a chance they trade Castro to save money but he's not getting DFA'D.

The other main trade candidate is Paddack.

Maybe a new ownership group saves the day but assuming everyone is kept that I listed and they fill the last 3 26man spots with minimum salary guys their ~payroll is around 135M.

If payroll remains frozen at 130M that means someone will be traded to make up the difference and my bet is on Paddack right now.

40 man is going to be very interesting to follow.

Lots of marginal guys that could be kept or cut.

Lots of guys they could potentially add.

[Clear Lake Twinsfan]

Is there any chance that the Twins have another year before Marco Raya and Kala'i Rosario become eligible for the Rule 5 draft?  Both were still 17 when the Twins selected them in the June 2020 draft.  I believe that both signed their initial contracts before their 18th birthday (in Rosario's case, the Twins announced his signing the day before his 18th birthday.). While that would normally provide an extra year before becoming Rule 5 eligible, I don't know if we have to count 2020 when there was no minor league season.

[Jim wyllie]

My thinking is tender all but look into trading kirilloff, acala, Castro, tanking, Jax and larnach

[Karbo]

I would try to get Castro to sign a 2-4 year contract at a reduced rate. If not I would look into trading him. I don't think they tender Tonkin. I would think there are some numbers being tossed around on Alcala also. I doubt Kepler comes back, and the only way I see Thielbar here is at less then the estimated cost.

[Greglw3]

I’m keeping prospects Raya, Rosario and Cespedes.

Let go:

Kepler, DeSclafani, Castro, Jeffers, Tonkin, Topa, Stewart.

Retain: Ober, Jax, Alcala, Ryan, Duran, Lewis.

Larnach is a 50/50 call, I think they can do better in LF.

As of now, retain Santana or get a free agent but don’t depend on Kirilloff in team plans at all.

The new owners have some work to do. Must get a viable backup SS and CF unless they feel Keirsey can handle backup.

[jorgenswest]

I wrote a year ago that counting on a 33 year old with one healthy productive major league season was ill advised. I felt that counting on him be healthy and match his only good season also meant they wouldn’t look elsewhere for a more reliable solution. Will they double down and count on Justin Topa at age 34?

He did throw 71 innings in 2023. You have to go back to 2019 to find a season where he hit 40 innings and that was exactly 40 innings. His next best was 26 innings. The Twins should never have counted on him being healthy and it would be a mistake to count on him being healthy next year.

The 1.3 million isn’t prohibitive but writing his name in the bullpen will mean they won’t sign someone else to fill that slot. The same could be argued for Brock Stewart though he has a much higher ceiling. If Stewart is healthy he will be a late inning solution. I would offer arbitration Stewart expecting him to be injured for a good part of the year. I wouldn’t offer arbitration to Topa. A healthy Topa at 34 is as likely to be mediocre as he is to be effective and I doubt he will be healthy.

 

[LewFordLives]

I think Tonkin and Castro are definitely gone, and Krilloff is a maybe.  I like Willi Castro, but $6.2 million for a  utility man is a luxury the Twins can't afford.  Maybe they can trade him, but there are going to be a lot of teams looking to trim payroll.  Don't be shocked if he's non-tendered. If they pay Castro the Twins will not have flexibility to do anything this offseason.

 

[DJL44]

16 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I wrote a year ago that counting on a 33 year old with one healthy productive major league season was ill advised. I felt that counting on him be healthy and match his only good season also meant they wouldn’t look elsewhere for a more reliable solution. Will they double down and count on Justin Topa at age 34?

He did throw 71 innings in 2023. You have to go back to 2019 to find a season where he hit 40 innings and that was exactly 40 innings. His next best was 26 innings. The Twins should never have counted on him being healthy and it would be a mistake to count on him being healthy next year.

The 1.3 million isn’t prohibitive but writing his name in the bullpen will mean they won’t sign someone else to fill that slot. The same could be argued for Brock Stewart though he has a much higher ceiling. If Stewart is healthy he will be a late inning solution. I would offer arbitration Stewart expecting him to be injured for a good part of the year. I wouldn’t offer arbitration to Topa. A healthy Topa at 34 is as likely to be mediocre as he is to be effective and I doubt he will be healthy.

Mediocre with an upside of effective is well worth $1.3M. That's what they paid for Jay Jackson last offseason. Topa even has options left so he can be stashed in AAA and not counted on as one of the 8 relievers on the roster.

[Mike Sixel]

35 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

I’m keeping prospects Raya, Rosario and Cespedes.

Let go:

Kepler, DeSclafani, Castro, Jeffers, Tonkin, Topa, Stewart.

Retain: Ober, Jax, Alcala, Ryan, Duran, Lewis.

Larnach is a 50/50 call, I think they can do better in LF.

As of now, retain Santana or get a free agent but don’t depend on Kirilloff in team plans at all.

The new owners have some work to do. Must get a viable backup SS and CF unless they feel Keirsey can handle backup.

Jeffers? Insanity. Truly. 

[Schmoeman5]

24 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

I think Tonkin and Castro are definitely gone, and Krilloff is a maybe.  I like Willi Castro, but $6.2 million for a  utility man is a luxury the Twins can't afford.  Maybe they can trade him, but there are going to be a lot of teams looking to trim payroll.  Don't be shocked if he's non-tendered. If they pay Castro the Twins will not have flexibility to do anything this offseason.

 

I think they just paid Farmer over 6 million for 2024. That was a luxury they couldn't afford. Castro is more versatile and frankly at this point is a better player. Hes the only dependable speed threat the Twins have. 

[jorgenswest]

On 10/14/2024 at 1:04 PM, DJL44 said:

Mediocre with an upside of effective is well worth $1.3M. That's what they paid for Jay Jackson last offseason. Topa even has options left so he can be stashed in AAA and not counted on as one of the 8 relievers on the roster.

It isn’t about the money. It is about the roster spot.

I would argue that Jackson was a bad signing. They were counting on these two last year and their failure to build a bullpen contributed to the disappointing season.

If the plan is for Topa to start in AAA and be the shuttle pitcher from St. Paul I am in. If the plan is for him to be the number 4-6 pitcher in the pen I hope they roster someone else. I think it is foolish to count on a 34 year old with an extensive history of injuries and a single solid major league season.

[DJL44]

19 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

I like Willi Castro, but $6.2 million for a utility man is a luxury the Twins can't afford.

Can they afford him if they call him the starter at 2B? This team needs more players like Willi Castro on the team. He's a solid defender at LF, RF, 2B and 3B (all spots where the projected starter is a mediocre defender) and he's the only player in the lineup who can steal a base.

[mikelink45]

I raised this question in another posting - who makes the calls on spending while the Pohlads position themselves to sell the team?  Can the FO actually function in this limbo?  

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I raised this question in another posting - who makes the calls on spending while the Pohlads position themselves to sell the team?  Can the FO actually function in this limbo?  

?

They have a budget. I'm not sure how that's changed. The family owns the team until they don't.

[bean5302]

I expect Kirilloff will be non-tendered. I saw a comment about how he only saves $1MM over a league minimum guy, and that's probably true, but it saves $1.7MM off a AAA 40 man roster spot guy (which is what Kirilloff is). When the Twins are already in a serious payroll crunch, $1.5MM+ is nothing to sneeze at. Kirilloff isn't good enough or healthy enough to warrant an MLB contract. He'll be signing somewhere on a MiLB deal... probably without an opt out.

It would not surprise me to see the Twins avoid arbitration to pick up Tonkin on a 1 year contract. While Tonkin got DFA'd several times last year, there was no hesitation for teams to pick him back up and he pitched nearly 80 innings last year with very respectable numbers 3.63 ERA, 3.44 FIP on the back of a 9.64 K/9 (25%) and 3.40 BB/9 (8.2%).

[Whitey333]

Great questions and good answers all.  I would think that since the Twins have missed the playoffs 3 of the past 4 years and 2 of them in team collapses that all moves need to be considered.  Plus many of the so called can't miss prospects on the 26 man roster have thus far been a big disappointment. 

[Fred]

1 hour ago, LewFordLives said:

I think Tonkin and Castro are definitely gone, and Krilloff is a maybe.  I like Willi Castro, but $6.2 million for a  utility man is a luxury the Twins can't afford.  Maybe they can trade him, but there are going to be a lot of teams looking to trim payroll.  Don't be shocked if he's non-tendered. If they pay Castro the Twins will not have flexibility to do anything this offseason.

 

This last Spring I watched a kid I had never heard of playing at Ft. Myers. He signed out of Independent ball. After watching him play just 3 games I told my Daughter "this kids got something", and I predicted him  to make Wichita this next season. Well, the Twins must have seen it, because Payton Eeles played the last half season at AAA. He plays a decent SS along with 2nd base and I've seen him in the corner outfield spots. I told my Daughter I got a "Charley Hustle" vibe watching him. Get what you can for Castro. Promote Eeles.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Jeffers? Insanity. Truly. 

People downvoting this think the Twins will let Jeffers walk for nothing? Ignoring that they should keep him, you think they'll just let him go, not sign him for a bargain rate, and trade him, just let him walk over 5 million dollars? Who's your catcher?

[tony&rodney]

5 minutes ago, Fred said:

This last Spring I watched a kid I had never heard of playing at Ft. Myers. He signed out of Independent ball. After watching him play just 3 games I told my Daughter "this kids got something", and I predicted him  to make Wichita this next season. Well, the Twins must have seen it, because Payton Eeles played the last half season at AAA. He plays a decent SS along with 2nd base and I've seen him in the corner outfield spots. I told my Daughter I got a "Charley Hustle" vibe watching him. Get what you can for Castro. Promote Eeles.

Eeles has shown himself to be ready and gives off a certain maturity. I would agree. As much as I like Castro, if the Twins field a $135 million budget, a trade makes sense. 

[LewFordLives]

1 hour ago, Schmoeman5 said:

I think they just paid Farmer over 6 million for 2024. That was a luxury they couldn't afford. Castro is more versatile and frankly at this point is a better player. Hes the only dependable speed threat the Twins have. 

You're right. The Farmer deal didn't work out. The same things people said about Farmer is what people say about Castro now. Farmer had a 1.7 rWAR in 2023. Castro's was 1.6 this past season, despite having a lot more at bats. I get what you're saying, but money is going to be tight and they have to decide soon. I don't think it makes sense hamstring their off-season because they decide to take Castro through arbitration.

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

People downvoting this think the Twins will let Jeffers walk for nothing? Ignoring that they should keep him, you think they'll just let him go, not sign him for a bargain rate, and trade him, just let him walk over 5 million dollars? Who's your catcher?

Ryan Jeffers has value to any number of teams, including the Twins. Falvey has to turn every stone seeking a path to a better roster. The Cubs, Rays, and Marlins are three teams willing to trade for Jeffers. But, you are correct that the Twins also need two catchers to roster. That means that before Jeffers can be actually traded another option or two need to be already available, not including anyone currently in the Twins organization. I would trade Jeffers in a fair deal but would need at least one decent option on board before making a deal.

[Major League Ready]

9 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Eeles has shown himself to be ready and gives off a certain maturity. I would agree. As much as I like Castro, if the Twins field a $135 million budget, a trade makes sense. 

We are very unlikely to replace 3 WAR (according the fangraphs) for $6.2M in free agency.  Plus, Castro is not replaced by any one player.  His value is as the first player off the bench to replace a number of defensive positions while providing above average offense.  Eeles just might end up as the 2B but Castro would still have a valuable role.

[LewFordLives]

10 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

People downvoting this think the Twins will let Jeffers walk for nothing? Ignoring that they should keep him, you think they'll just let him go, not sign him for a bargain rate, and trade him, just let him walk over 5 million dollars? Who's your catcher?

Agreed. I think the ghost of Sandy Leon is still fresh on the minds of the front office. Plus Vasquez will be gone after this season.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

You're right. The Farmer deal didn't work out. The same things people said about Farmer is what people say about Castro now. Farmer had a 1.7 rWAR in 2023. Castro's was 1.6 this past season, despite having a lot more at bats. I get what you're saying, but money is going to be tight and they have to decide soon. I don't think it makes sense hamstring their off-season because they decide to take Castro through arbitration.

He put up 3.1 fwar.....I think they'll keep him, but I could be wrong. In any event, they tender him and deal him if they "can't afford" him. They aren't letting him walk.

[Fred]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

He put up 3.1 fwar.....I think they'll keep him, but I could be wrong. In any event, they tender him and deal him if they "can't afford" him. They aren't letting him walk.

I think the payroll will drive him off the roster (and I agree it's a shame)

[mikelink45]

59 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

?

They have a budget. I'm not sure how that's changed. The family owns the team until they don't.

They weren't going to sell the team until they decided they would, a budget is not a law and it too can be changed.