The Padres Cut Twice as Much Payroll as the Twins. They Cruised to the Playoffs.

[Peter Labuza]

The Padres and Twins had similar offseasons, wherein ownership and broadcast issues led to huge salary reductions. So why were the Padres successful?

Image courtesy of © Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

During the final broadcast of the season, former MVP and current Twins TV color commentator Justin Morneau spoke about studying other teams, and seeing what they did well. It’s obvious to point to a team like the Royals and show how they added $100 million in payroll to turn it around this season. However, if the Twins are going to spend less, the question is how to spend it better.

Case in point: The San Diego Padres. After losing owner Peter Seidler to cancer and finding themselves victims of the Bally Sports fiasco, baseball operations head A.J. Preller was given a mandate to aggressively cut payroll. He did so, dropping San Diego from 5th in the league in spending to 12th from last year to this one. That meant losing not just All-Star, but era-defining players: Juan Soto, Josh Hader, and Blake Snell departed, among others. They also suffered from a bizarre 2023 season in which a huge 10-game difference between their expected record based on run differential and their actual record led to their missing the postseason. Meanwhile, they watched the rival Dodgers pour over a billion dollars into their winter additions. 

The result for 2024? The Padres finished only five games behind the Dodgers, and easily secured the top Wild Card spot in the National League. According to FanGraphs projections, they’re actually better built for the postseason than their LA rivals, whose pitching ran thin late in the campaign. This was a team that cut $90 million in payroll to begin the season and cruised to victory all season long. So how did they do it?

Overpay For Talent, and Lots of It
The Padres have not been afraid to offer big contracts, even ones so ridiculous that the league office has nixed them. The Padres have three position players (Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Xander Bogaerts) and two pitchers (Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish) all making more than Byron Buxton will in any of his contracted years, and all those contracts last through at least the 2027 season. And guess what? They combined for 8.7 hitting fWAR and 2.5 pitching fWAR. That’s $95 million in WAR for $90 million in salary.

Part of this was prepping for injuries. Tatis and Boegarts both lost time to injuries, while the two pitchers were each limited to less than 100 innings. It didn’t matter, because that Padres still had other players like Ha-Seong Kim, Jake Cronenworth, and Wandy Peralta to fill the gaps. And if you remove Jackson Merrill (more on that later), the team only gave 1.6% of its plate appearances to rookies. Turns out, having enough players with big money means you don’t need to rely on every single one of them to deliver.

Trade Early, Trade Often
Preller is an executive who would move a dozen players back and forth to gain 0.2 WAR and a few years of team control, and while it might drive some crazy, it often works. Forced to move Juan Soto (who ended up earning $30 million in arbitration with the Yankees) as well as dumping Matt Carpenter, Preller somehow still found ways to make a number of other trades. Just as the season began, he convinced the White Sox to give up Dylan Cease, who threw a no-hitter for the Padres this summer. In dealing Soto, he got a fully formed starting pitcher in Michael King, as well as starting catcher Kyle Higashioka and prospects--one of whom, Drew Thorpe, then became a centerpiece of the Cease deal.

Frustrated with an early offensive slump, he made a surprising May trade to get three-time batting champion Luis Arraez. And at the deadline, Preller beefed up the bullpen by dealing for two top arms, in Tanner Scott and Jason Adam. For good measure, he picked up Martín Pérez just to eat some innings down the stretch. Reports suggested they almost scored Jarren Duran from the Red Sox, too. In all, Preller dealt 12 of his team’s top 21 top prospects. That might seem like a team destined for pain down the road, but the team has had a seemingly endless supply of prospects in the past and knows that winning fixes everything.

Small Deals, Big Payoffs
Despite a team with three major stars, the Padres’ All-Star this year was none other than Jurickson Profar (4.3 fWAR), a former No. 1 prospect who finally paid off with a true star-caliber season after a decade-long career--while making just barely over the league minimum. Other signings overachieved, too, including former Twin Donovan Solano (0.9 fWAR), David Peralta (0.5 fWAR), knuckleball savant Matt Waldron (1.9 fWAR), and waiver pickup Jeremiah Estrada (1.6 fWAR). These were all acquisitions that cost $1 million or less. Compare that to the cheap pickups Derek Falvey tried this year, which all backfired. Whatever magic Preller has in picking lottery tickets, Falvey desperately needs his own bag of tricks.

Score Big With Your Rookie Phenom
There was a possibility, early in the season, that Brooks Lee (or Royce Lewis, for that matter) might have put up numbers like the following: .292/.324/.500, with 24 home runs, including three walk-off shots. Alas, that wasn’t the season for Lee or Lewis, but for Jackson Merrill. Dubbed “The Kid” by broadcaster Don Orsillo, Merrill led the team in WAR, playing 155 games all while the shortstop prospect learned to play center field on the fly. Perhaps call it luck, but Twins rookies and sophomores mostly disappointed on the season, and having that kind of power could have turned the season around.

Though Merrill was one of the game's top handful of prospects even coming into the season, this item ties in with the last one, about finding diamonds in the rough. Both elements of success come down to doing great player development even at the big-league level, including coaching. This is one reason why the Twins fired four coaches this week; they haven't been getting the most out of talent the way the Padres have been.

Be a Big Spender, Anyway, Especially When You’re the Only Game in Town
San Diego is ranked 26th among baseball media markets. But ever since the Chargers left, they’ve leaned into being the only game in town, drawing in 3.3 million fans (4th in the league) despite the payroll cuts. The Padres still spent $169 million this year, which put them in the top half of the league, despite being a smaller market than the Twin Cities. You might look at some of these numbers and balk that they put too much in single players, but it turns out it does not matter when you have enough to go around.

When Seidler died, there were details about how the man ran the team with no inhibition. According to another owner, "People [in the sport] were upset with him because he spent his own money, but he wanted to win the World Series and he wasn't worried about the cost. He did it the right way -- he paid into revenue-sharing, rather than being a recipient."

And even when feeling cheaper than last year, the Padres still spend big. They might get October gold as their reward. The Twins can learn from them on many fronts, especially that one.

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[Jocko87]

 

It ain't a salary question. In either case. 

[Linus]

This is apples and oranges. They cut to $169 million!  Twins fans would be doing backflips to have a $169 million payroll. The premise of this article is silly. 

[rv78]

Maybe the reason San Diego's small deals payoff better than Falvey's is because Preller is way better at evaluating talent than Falvey is. Solano who was a good hitter for the Twins in 2023 (.282-BA and .369-OBP) was cast aside by Falvey who decided Santana (,238-BA and .328-OBP) was going to be better. Maybe signing injured pitchers like Mahle and DeSclafani isn't a winning strategy. Maybe Jackson Merrill was better because he got consistant playing time. That's something the young Twins hitters never get with Rocco at the helm. Maybe the reason the Padres got rid of Jayce Tingler is because he's not worth having and knew they could find someone better. Seems the Padres righted their ship when they got rid of him, and the Twins added him and still struggle to play good ball. He's brought nothing. Maybe someday, Falvey and Rocco will be held accountable for their failures. They really don't deserve another chance in 2025. In the end, comparing the Padres to the Twins is like comparing apples to oranges.

[AceWrigley]

Meanwhile both the Tigers and Royals today accomplished more by winning their respective play off series than the Twins have since 2002.

[BH67]

I appreciate a Padres comparison that goes beyond the trade deadline moves to explain the strategy. But even the salary cuts led to a roster $35M higher than Minnesota's. And it's wishful thinking to expect a continual pipeline of top talent to replace the lost prospects, unless their scouts and coaches are vastly superior to those on other teams.

Of course, a team can be considerably inferior to others in player development or coaching. After seven years, Falvine is very good at the first but atrocious at the latter -- and I'm no longer confident in their skills to improve.

[USAFChief]

8 minutes ago, BH67 said:

 And it's wishful thinking to expect a continual pipeline of top talent to replace the lost prospects...

 

Nobody has a continual pipeline of top talent. Nobody.

However, everyone has a continual pipeline of "prospects" that can, and mostly should be used to acquire proven MLB talent.

You'd end up regretting maybe 1 in 10 of those deals, maybe less.

Because maybe 1 in 10 of those shiny prospects ever amounts to more than the guy they were traded for.

They're initially cheaper, which is the real reason they're hoarded.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

 

It ain't a salary question. In either case. 

$98M for their full ‘24 roster (Baez & Maeda make up $39M) ………Skubal - Keith and another guy bring the total to $46M for 5 guys……everyone else makes essentially, $740K. It’s a huge leap of faith leaning into ALL young guys.

[JD-TWINS]

53 minutes ago, AceWrigley said:

Meanwhile both the Tigers and Royals today accomplished more by winning their respective play off series than the Twins have since 2002.

TWINS beat Toronto last year in the Wildcard round - right?

[S Bart]

48 minutes ago, BH67 said:

I appreciate a Padres comparison that goes beyond the trade deadline moves to explain the strategy. But even the salary cuts led to a roster $35M higher than Minnesota's. And it's wishful thinking to expect a continual pipeline of top talent to replace the lost prospects, unless their scouts and coaches are vastly superior to those on other teams.

Of course, a team can be considerably inferior to others in player development or coaching. After seven years, Falvine is very good at the first but atrocious at the latter -- and I'm no longer confident in their skills to improve.

AS Twins fan living in San Diego, I can attest that they fill the stadium and make it up big time in sales of merchandise....also include the playoffs. When you invest in a team, you also get back the money in ticket sales and much more. 

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

 

It ain't a salary question. In either case. 

It's always about salaries.

The top 6 team payrolls in 2024 are in the postseason. 

There's a reason the Yankees miss the playoffs once every few decades and the Dodgers own the NLW.

And it ain't their minor league systems. 

Exceptions prove the rule.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, rv78 said:

Maybe the reason San Diego's small deals payoff better than Falvey's is because Preller is way better at evaluating talent than Falvey is. Solano who was a good hitter for the Twins in 2023 (.282-BA and .369-OBP) was cast aside by Falvey who decided Santana (,238-BA and .328-OBP) was going to be better. Maybe signing injured pitchers like Mahle and DeSclafani isn't a winning strategy. Maybe Jackson Merrill was better because he got consistant playing time. That's something the young Twins hitters never get with Rocco at the helm. Maybe the reason the Padres got rid of Jayce Tingler is because he's not worth having and knew they could find someone better. Seems the Padres righted their ship when they got rid of him, and the Twins added him and still struggle to play good ball. He's brought nothing. Maybe someday, Falvey and Rocco will be held accountable for their failures. They really don't deserve another chance in 2025. In the end, comparing the Padres to the Twins is like comparing apples to oranges.

Stop it. We both know it was all David Popkins fault. The Twins are absolutely ready for a World Series run now!

[MinnesotaTwins26]

The Padres are a much larger franchise and have loads more money than our Minnesota Twins. Even cutting payroll left them well above the Twins financially. San Diego also has more talent on their roster.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Different team. Different talent. Different city. Different league. Different management. Different prospects.  You're comparing apples to trains. 

[Woof Bronzer]

The Padres Spent $40m More Than The Twins Despite Being In A Smaller Market.  They Cruised To The Playoffs.

[JD-TWINS]

59 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Maybe the reason San Diego's small deals payoff better than Falvey's is because Preller is way better at evaluating talent than Falvey is. Solano who was a good hitter for the Twins in 2023 (.282-BA and .369-OBP) was cast aside by Falvey who decided Santana (,238-BA and .328-OBP) was going to be better. Maybe signing injured pitchers like Mahle and DeSclafani isn't a winning strategy. Maybe Jackson Merrill was better because he got consistant playing time. That's something the young Twins hitters never get with Rocco at the helm. Maybe the reason the Padres got rid of Jayce Tingler is because he's not worth having and knew they could find someone better. Seems the Padres righted their ship when they got rid of him, and the Twins added him and still struggle to play good ball. He's brought nothing. Maybe someday, Falvey and Rocco will be held accountable for their failures. They really don't deserve another chance in 2025. In the end, comparing the Padres to the Twins is like comparing apples to oranges.

Not really sure what this article nor your comments are supposed to compare? Both Team’s had to cut payroll in ‘24 is the baseline I guess? How is there any real comparison that makes sense if the Padres cut to get to $162M ($169 after All-Star break adds) and the Twins cut to get to $124M? There’s a payroll discrepancy of $45M……and Preller is made out to be a genius v. Falvey……what am I missing. The Padres are 14th in MLB in spending and the Twins are about 20th or higher in MLB & the Padres are doing better with their roster……surprise??

Do we really think that with $45M more to spend in ‘24 the Twins wouldn’t be in the Playoffs?

Last year Falvey got nothing but static about signing Solano & then he had a really good year and nobody said a thing, other than, don’t re-sign him……let youth have a chance!

Acting like not re-signing Solano was a mistake compounded by signing Santana is nuts. Santana hit .238 but he played Gold Glove first base and he lead the Team in HR & RBI…….hardly a mistake!!

Wallner had consistent playing time in April and hit .085 - had to be sent down. Julien had consistent playing time and was terrible and sent down in June/July. Kirilloff had a 117 OPS+in ‘23 and with his playing time in ‘24 he managed to hit around .208. Lee, when he was healthy enough to play, got chances at 3 different positions so he could be in the line-up regularly and he had under .600 OPS.

Who signed Farmer in ‘23? Who signed Solano in ‘23? Who signed Castro in ‘23? …….he can’t make a good deal to save his life……

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, BH67 said:

I appreciate a Padres comparison that goes beyond the trade deadline moves to explain the strategy. But even the salary cuts led to a roster $35M higher than Minnesota's. And it's wishful thinking to expect a continual pipeline of top talent to replace the lost prospects, unless their scouts and coaches are vastly superior to those on other teams.

Of course, a team can be considerably inferior to others in player development or coaching. After seven years, Falvine is very good at the first but atrocious at the latter -- and I'm no longer confident in their skills to improve.

They don't need a continual pipeline now. They have a lot of their guys locked up or controlled for long enough to get more guys ready.

Their infield has 3 guys (Machado, Bogaerts, Cronenworth) under control through at least 2030. Kim and Arraez are still there next year. No need to replace anyone on the infield next year, and Kim and/or Arraez wouldn't break the bank.

The outfield loses Profar after this year, but has Merrill through 2029 and Tatis through 2034. So they have the core of their lineup locked up through 2029. If they can't produce more prospects in 6 years they're in trouble anyways.

Musgrove controlled through 2027, Darvish 2028. Cease and King for next year still. Waldron through 2029. Nobody ever has enough pitching, and that's definitely where they're going to need to do their work, but that's a pretty nice starting point for a staff.

They are going to really struggle to pivot if a bunch of their core falls apart, but that's true of every team. But they don't need to produce a ton of high end talent for a handful of years. And they have an elite prospect at catcher on his way soon. They've given themselves a pretty decent pillow to develop more talent while also competing for titles.

[Rufus]

It isn't how much money you spend, it's how you spend your money.

[Whitey333]

So many of our prospects that played for the Twins this year have shown they are not Bona fide major league players.  IMO the Twins do a crummy job of developing their prospects.  Many of them play in minor leagues and play more full time.  When they are called up to the Twins many of them are relegated to part time status due to Roccos platooning.  How are your prospects going to become stars if they are not allowed to play full time?  Why would any young star want to play for the Twins?

[GNess]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

$98M for their full ‘24 roster (Baez & Maeda make up $39M) ………Skubal - Keith and another guy bring the total to $46M for 5 guys……everyone else makes essentially, $740K. It’s a huge leap of faith leaning into ALL young guys.

The Tigers were 10.5 GB and under .500 in mid-August. They. played out of their minds over the final six weeks. Does that clearly outlier performance really demonstrate anything for other teams - I think not.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Different team. Different talent. Different city. Different league. Different management. Different prospects.  You're comparing apples to trains. 

Same sport, same rules, same constraints.

if we can’t compare management, prospects and talent between teams, well then let’s just close down TD and call it, huh?

[ashbury]

Son Cashbury just informed me the Padres are his team this post-season.

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

It's always about salaries.

The top 6 team payrolls in 2024 are in the postseason. 

There's a reason the Yankees miss the playoffs once every few decades and the Dodgers own the NLW.

And it ain't their minor league systems. 

Exceptions prove the rule.

2 out of the 3 that are playing this round got bounced and the third is hanging by a thread.  

They ain't got what the Padres and Tigers got.  

What the Padres and Tigers got, can't be bought.

[Jocko87]

25 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Same sport, same rules, same constraints.

if we can’t compare management, prospects and talent between teams, well then let’s just close down TD and call it, huh?

Hold up, let him cook. 

[S Bart]

Folks,

29 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Same sport, same rules, same constraints.

if we can’t compare management, prospects and talent between teams, well then let’s just close down TD and call it, huh?

2 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Hold up, let him cook. 

 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

36 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Same sport, same rules, same constraints.

if we can’t compare management, prospects and talent between teams, well then let’s just close down TD and call it, huh?

But that’s the point.  The monetary part has little to do with their success.  All of the variables are different, so that makes the comparison impossible.  Compare talent, sure. Compare prospects, sure.  Compare management, you bet.  But there are too many moving parts to tie it only to the payroll cut.  

[S Bart]

Being a Twins fan in Padreland, I can comment on a BIG item that you can compare. It is how the Padres' owner and GM approach the operation of their team. They are simply awesome in SD and the Twins management/owners should review how others approach their operations (Also look at Philly). From a business sense, it is not a bad idea to see how other teams' function when one truly wants to succeed. On the Skor North Podcast today, Trevor P. made some very good recommendations. 

JUST FYI..the Padres defeated the Braves this evening and now play the Dodgers. They are serious rivals, and these upcoming games will be interesting to watch. 

[BH67]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

They don't need a continual pipeline now. They have a lot of their guys locked up or controlled for long enough to get more guys ready.

Their infield has 3 guys (Machado, Bogaerts, Cronenworth) under control through at least 2030. Kim and Arraez are still there next year. No need to replace anyone on the infield next year, and Kim and/or Arraez wouldn't break the bank.

The outfield loses Profar after this year, but has Merrill through 2029 and Tatis through 2034. So they have the core of their lineup locked up through 2029. If they can't produce more prospects in 6 years they're in trouble anyways.

Musgrove controlled through 2027, Darvish 2028. Cease and King for next year still. Waldron through 2029. Nobody ever has enough pitching, and that's definitely where they're going to need to do their work, but that's a pretty nice starting point for a staff.

They are going to really struggle to pivot if a bunch of their core falls apart, but that's true of every team. But they don't need to produce a ton of high end talent for a handful of years. And they have an elite prospect at catcher on his way soon. They've given themselves a pretty decent pillow to develop more talent while also competing for titles.

Given that scenario, it made sense for San Diego to go "all in" on renting Tanner Scott in hopes of winning the World Series. It also made it difficult for the Twins, lacking such capabilities, to pay the market price in July.

[AceWrigley]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

TWINS beat Toronto last year in the Wildcard round - right?

My bad, I forgot, they did. I'm probably suffering from late-season collapse syndrome.  😵‍💫

[AceWrigley]

After KC beating the Astros (from AP):

Second baseman Michael Massey, who led off the game with a double and scored on a single by Vinnie Pasquantino, said the front office bringing in experienced veterans with playoff experience like Tommy Pham, Yuli Gurriel, Michael Wacha and Will Smith made this possible.

“They’ve been there before, they’ve done it, so I think it’s helped a lot of guys,” Massey said. “It’s helped us, for sure me, to be around those guys and just watch them, more than anything, and see how they go about their business, has been — I think that’s helped us stay even keel.”