The Padres Cut Twice as Much Payroll as the Twins. They Cruised to the Playoffs.

[Eris]

The greatest point of failure for the Twins is that too many players did not show up when they were needed. For some because they were injured. For others we don’t know at this time. 
 

What frustrates me a lot about this team is that as a team they do not play fundamentally sound baseball. Lack of situational hitting and poor base running are two examples. Maybe also poor defense. 

[h2oface]

6 hours ago, AceWrigley said:

Meanwhile both the Tigers and Royals today accomplished more by winning their respective play off series than the Twins have since 2002.

I don’t remember last year, either. 

[Patzky]

10 hours ago, AceWrigley said:

Meanwhile both the Tigers and Royals today accomplished more by winning their respective play off series than the Twins have since 2002.

The Tigers and Royals did EXACTLY what the Twins did last year but ok.

[TwinsDr2021]

49 minutes ago, Patzky said:

The Tigers and Royals did EXACTLY what the Twins did last year but ok.

I took the misstatement to mean it since 2002 the Twins have one playoff series, where as the Tigers and Royals have been to a world series (2 KC) and tanked and did this year what the Twins have done once in 20+ plus seasons.

[TwinsDr2021]

7 hours ago, BH67 said:

Given that scenario, it made sense for San Diego to go "all in" on renting Tanner Scott in hopes of winning the World Series. It also made it difficult for the Twins, lacking such capabilities, to pay the market price in July.

The Twins have had that opportunity a few times in the last few years and haven't done it.

I will go out on a limb and say that just about nobody on TD would have been OK with bringing Jackson Merrill up the the Twins when the Padres did. I mean he completely skipped AAA, and the year before in A+ and AA his OPS was .782 and .762. On top of the fact that he was only 20 years old when called up.

 

[Riverbrian]

6 hours ago, AceWrigley said:

After KC beating the Astros (from AP):

Second baseman Michael Massey, who led off the game with a double and scored on a single by Vinnie Pasquantino, said the front office bringing in experienced veterans with playoff experience like Tommy Pham, Yuli Gurriel, Michael Wacha and Will Smith made this possible.

“They’ve been there before, they’ve done it, so I think it’s helped a lot of guys,” Massey said. “It’s helped us, for sure me, to be around those guys and just watch them, more than anything, and see how they go about their business, has been — I think that’s helped us stay even keel.”

The Tigers can't say that. 

They got rid of every single veteran. Only 3 players on the roster have reached arbitration. 

Casey Mize is the most seasoned guy with 3.111 years. 

Javier Baez making 23 million and Kenta Maeda making 14 million. Both of them are not on the playoff roster. After that 37 million... the rest of the team is probably around 10 million dollars. I don't know... I didn't do the math. 

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

The Tigers can't say that. 

They got rid of every single veteran. Only 3 players on the roster have reached arbitration. 

Casey Mize is the most seasoned guy with 3.111 years. 

Javier Baez making 23 million and Kenta Maeda making 14 million. Both of them are not on the playoff roster. After that 37 million... the rest of the team is probably around 10 million dollars. I don't know... I didn't do the math. 

Their playoff roster is about 20 mil.

[Riverbrian]

8 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I took the misstatement to mean it since 2002 the Twins have one playoff series, where as the Tigers and Royals have been to a world series (2 KC) and tanked and did this year what the Twins have done once in 20+ plus seasons.

If the Twins win a playoff series next year.

Then people will say that the Twins have only done it twice since 2002. 

The incredible losing playoff streak was yesterday. It no longer matters. Knocking off the Jays was Yesterday... It also no longer matters. 

Late March 2025... A new season will begin. What happened in 2002 won't matter. 

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

The Twins have had that opportunity a few times in the last few years and haven't done it.

I will go out on a limb and say that just about nobody on TD would have been OK with bringing Jackson Merrill up the the Twins when the Padres did. I mean he completely skipped AAA, and the year before in A+ and AA his OPS was .782 and .762. On top of the fact that he was only 20 years old when called up.

 

There's a few of us who'd be ok with it, but not many. I'm not someone who thinks you need to go stop by stop through the minors with guys. Michael Harris in Atlanta skipped AAA, too. Not for opening day, but didn't spend a whole year at AA. It'd actually excite me if the Twins saw a player in their system they believed is a star and just got them up to give it a go. Jackson Chourio struggled a bunch the first half of the year after getting paid before ever stepping on a major league field, but the Brewers didn't demote him, they let him learn and he just carried them to a playoff win last night. I'd love to see the Twins do that with Jenkins or Emma (if he could stay healthy).

[rv78]

10 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Not really sure what this article nor your comments are supposed to compare? Both Team’s had to cut payroll in ‘24 is the baseline I guess? How is there any real comparison that makes sense if the Padres cut to get to $162M ($169 after All-Star break adds) and the Twins cut to get to $124M? There’s a payroll discrepancy of $45M……and Preller is made out to be a genius v. Falvey……what am I missing. The Padres are 14th in MLB in spending and the Twins are about 20th or higher in MLB & the Padres are doing better with their roster……surprise??

Do we really think that with $45M more to spend in ‘24 the Twins wouldn’t be in the Playoffs?

Last year Falvey got nothing but static about signing Solano & then he had a really good year and nobody said a thing, other than, don’t re-sign him……let youth have a chance!

Acting like not re-signing Solano was a mistake compounded by signing Santana is nuts. Santana hit .238 but he played Gold Glove first base and he lead the Team in HR & RBI…….hardly a mistake!!

Wallner had consistent playing time in April and hit .085 - had to be sent down. Julien had consistent playing time and was terrible and sent down in June/July. Kirilloff had a 117 OPS+in ‘23 and with his playing time in ‘24 he managed to hit around .208. Lee, when he was healthy enough to play, got chances at 3 different positions so he could be in the line-up regularly and he had under .600 OPS.

Who signed Farmer in ‘23? Who signed Solano in ‘23? Who signed Castro in ‘23? …….he can’t make a good deal to save his life……

You are missing the part where one spends wisely and the other one doesn't. Mahle and DeSclafani are prime examples, should I also include Paddack, Gallo, and almost every bullpen arm they brought in for 2024? It really doesn't matter how much you spend if you aren't spending it correctly. However when you do you end up like Detroit, Cleveland and KC, who all proved that this year. 

I think the one thing that is over-looked is team chemistry. Players picking up other players and the Manager and Coaches holding players accountable for mistakes. If the Manager does nothing on the field to try to correct a problem or is the problem then you are doomed. Ever see Kirby not hustle down to 1st base? Yet superdud Correa does it all the time on a weak grounder to an infielder. Motivation and accountability falls on the manager and Rocco is an epic failure at both. 

[Patzky]

7 minutes ago, rv78 said:

You are missing the part where one spends wisely and the other one doesn't. Mahle and DeSclafani are prime examples, should I also include Paddack, Gallo, and almost every bullpen arm they brought in for 2024? It really doesn't matter how much you spend if you aren't spending it correctly. However when you do you end up like Detroit, Cleveland and KC, who all proved that this year. 

I think the one thing that is over-looked is team chemistry. Players picking up other players and the Manager and Coaches holding players accountable for mistakes. If the Manager does nothing on the field to try to correct a problem or is the problem then you are doomed. Ever see Kirby not hustle down to 1st base? Yet superdud Correa does it all the time on a weak grounder to an infielder. Motivation and accountability falls on the manager aRocco is an epic failure at both. 

'Wisely' is easier to discern ex post facto.

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

2 out of the 3 that are playing this round got bounced and the third is hanging by a thread.  

They ain't got what the Padres and Tigers got.  

What the Padres and Tigers got, can't be bought.

WHY is the sentiment that the Padres have done something magical with their salary spend in ‘24?

With Maeda and Baez the Tigers payroll in April was $98M ……. very modest!! The Padres payroll after the trade deadline is $169M. I get the enthusiastic S.D. crowd and players reactions after winning makes everything seem cool! The reality is that the Tigers and Padres payroll couldn’t be more different…….$73M different. I don’t get the comparison or supposed symmetry?

$90 million reduction in payroll from some drunken sailor spending at $260M isn’t some great feat by Preller. I like their Team and they have spent at a level that would almost certainly take the Twins into a great spot in the AL. Sure, Tigers caught lightning in a bottle but 8-10 games under .500 in August is a tenuous spot to be in and it’s doubtful a Team will find themselves in the playoffs from that spot.

[Riverbrian]

37 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Their playoff roster is about 20 mil.

That is just a little bit more than I spent remodeling my bathroom. 

In hindsight... My wife probably didn't need that walk in shower with room for 20 people.  

[JD-TWINS]

7 hours ago, AceWrigley said:

After KC beating the Astros (from AP):

Second baseman Michael Massey, who led off the game with a double and scored on a single by Vinnie Pasquantino, said the front office bringing in experienced veterans with playoff experience like Tommy Pham, Yuli Gurriel, Michael Wacha and Will Smith made this possible.

“They’ve been there before, they’ve done it, so I think it’s helped a lot of guys,” Massey said. “It’s helped us, for sure me, to be around those guys and just watch them, more than anything, and see how they go about their business, has been — I think that’s helped us stay even keel.”

Carlos Correa just needs a little veteran company to lead the youngsters ……..maybe an arm? I see their needs as 100% on offense but that’s just me. Adding “successful” veterans is the point.

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Carlos Correa just needs a little veteran company to lead the youngsters ……..maybe an arm? I see their needs as 100% on offense but that’s just me. Adding “successful” veterans is the point.

It was sure nice of Michael Massey to say what he said. 

Not sure it's accurate. But it was nice of him to say it.  

 

[Trov]

The key to winning seasons is having guys that you were not expecting to have great years, have great years.  Unless you are one of the few teams that can spend a ton of money, every mid to small market teams needs young guys and cast off guys to step up on big years.  Just look at Twins last year, Wallner and Julien had great years when they came up.  Kepler had career year.  Lewis was insane.  This year, even more so by end of year no one was stepping up.  Santana did better than expected overall, but struggled to start and end season.  Lewis regressed a ton, no rookies or young guys stepped up.  No one came out of no where to say wow did not see that coming. 

Miranda had a run mid season that was like that but then he fell off a cliff by end of year. Ober had a season like that, and SWR was good, but both fell off near end of year.  The pen fell apart. Spending money does not always equal wins, and you can cut payroll, if you hit on the guys you bring in. 

[Patzky]

37 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Carlos Correa just needs a little veteran company to lead the youngsters ……..maybe an arm? I see their needs as 100% on offense but that’s just me. Adding “successful” veterans is the point.

I agree re: the bats are a bigger area of concern for the Twins, even though 'you can never have enough pitching'.

 

You know what you're gonna get from the majority of the stuff. Pablo 11 wins, probably somewhere between the 23 and 24 versions. Ober and Ryan, largely established bodies of work barring injury. Maybe even a step forward for Joe. Duran, Jax Paddack, hard to envision any huge steps forward or backward. Varland, Stewart, Topa, competent if not electric bullpen help. Simeon Woods Richardson, a small step forward, but no miracles. Maybe Zebby and Festa a bit more seasoning. A no. five starter might be needed or maybe not.

The bats are a total crap shoot other than Correa, Vazquez, and perhaps Larnach. Will we get the April Wallner or the August one? The hurt or healthy Buxton and Miranda? A useful or useless Julien, Jeffers, Kirilloff, and Lewis. Will Emmanuel Rodriguez or Luke Keaschall be of some help by summer?

There are so many unknowns we are hanging our hats on. Seems something could be said for a bit more veteran presence, whether re-signing Santana or nabbing a Pham-type guy. Goldschmidt too rich for our liking?

[TheLeviathan]

20 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Goldschmidt too rich for our liking?

Goldschmidt might have been the worst "Bang for your buck" player in all of baseball last year.

What makes the Padres so successful is that their GM has a real knack for when to move on and off players.  There is no complacency and he has the skill to do it well.  That said, they haven't won anything yet and have had some miserable seasons to go with their good ones. (Their season last year, at 82-80, was a similar disappointment.  Just happened differently)

But we should DEFINITELY be taking some cues from that organization.

[1985Fan]

The coaching of Merrill seems to indicate the biggest difference between Twins and Padres. Players need to be confident to be successful in MLB. It’s very difficult to learn how to play at the MLB and do it good enough to gain confidence. Merrill’s success this year points to good coaching and management AND veteran leadership inside the clubhouse he could lean on. 
Twins didn’t have good coaching or management. Maybe new coaches will change that, but Rocco’s management will probably stay the same.
Player development in the Twins MiLB system is also lacking. Lewis, Miranda, Julien, and even Lee at times looked bad on defense. Twins as a whole are poor fundamentally.. Minor league staff need to be accountable for producing fundamentally sound players, not judged on time through the system. I think what hurts players is their emphasis on position flexibility vs. defense excellence. It hurts young players to try to play multiple positions before you learn how to play one really well. 
Maybe give Correa and Buxton a pass this year on veteran leadership failure. They weren’t in the clubhouse most of the year. But their playing time probably won’t improve much next year, so maybe the need is to bring in veterans with leadership ability. Farmer couldn’t be that guy this year while he was going through his terrible slump. 

[USAFChief]

3 minutes ago, 1985Fan said:

The coaching of Merrill seems to indicate the biggest difference between Twins and Padres. Players need to be confident to be successful in MLB. It’s very difficult to learn how to play at the MLB and do it good enough to gain confidence. Merrill’s success this year points to good coaching and management AND veteran leadership inside the clubhouse he could lean on. 
Twins didn’t have good coaching or management. Maybe new coaches will change that, but Rocco’s management will probably stay the same.
Player development in the Twins MiLB system is also lacking. Lewis, Miranda, Julien, and even Lee at times looked bad on defense. Twins as a whole are poor fundamentally.. Minor league staff need to be accountable for producing fundamentally sound players, not judged on time through the system. I think what hurts players is their emphasis on position flexibility vs. defense excellence. It hurts young players to try to play multiple positions before you learn how to play one really well. 
Maybe give Correa and Buxton a pass this year on veteran leadership failure. They weren’t in the clubhouse most of the year. But their playing time probably won’t improve much next year, so maybe the need is to bring in veterans with leadership ability. Farmer couldn’t be that guy this year while he was going through his terrible slump. 

One thing the Padres didn't do with Merrill is sit him against LH pitching. 

A little more than 1/4 of his 2024 PAs came against LH pitching. And he only put up a .641 OPS.

But lookie here....in the postseason he's not only in the lineup against Max Fried, he's batting 5th. 

And he ropes a 2 run double to center off Max Fried.

Merrill wouldn't have been in that game were he a Twin. 

[Major League Ready]

The Padres pushed their all their chips in more so that any other team.  They gave themselves a shot but the price would appear to be a narrow window.  They had the #1 farm system in MLB following a couple decades of futility.  They are now ranked 28th according to MLB.com.  They are not likely to maintain their team from their farm system and it would appear they are not going to get more payroll.

Profar is gone next year and they are not replacing the 4 WAR they got for $1M.  Tanner Scott is gone next year and Cease is there for 1 more year.  Darvish will turn 39 next year and Machado 33.  Machado could be remain relatively good.  You never know but the odds are against him going forward.  His salary goes up $8M in 2026 and an additional $14M for a total of $22M to $39M for the last 7 years which will very likely be a real detriment to the organization.  Tatis Jr’s salary goes up by $9M next year.  Cronenworth goes up $4M.  

The Orioles have the 3rd rated farm system and the Guardians 4th followed by the Dodgers.  I like the odds of those three teams sustaining success much more so than the Padres.   
 

[LambchoP]

You always here about these guys who have been part time players for years, and then a new team picks them up, gives them an everyday job and boom, all-star season. Aside from Santana and Castro, I don't think we had one player that I would call a full-time everyday player. No routine,no stability. Not knowing if you'll be playing day to day, or where you'll be playing or where in the lineup you'll be hitting, this has to make it so much harder on all these young guys coming up. Maybe if they let them play one position everyday, and hit in the same lineup spot everyday, without pinch hitting and subbing guys out every other inning, our guys might actually find some consistency and success. Just my two cents...

[AKTwinsFan]

Their payroll was the highest last year so their new payroll was probably still much higher than the Twins. They still got their good pitchers but picked up young stars in the process. 

[Doctor Gast]

SD has good player evaluations that's why they make good decisions in spotting good talent & problem spots. Beyond this, Prueller is great at initiating necessary trades, Falvey is terrible at both. These are the big differences between our teams. Twins should have dumped Falvey & find a FO more like Prueller.

[LastOnePicked]

8 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I will go out on a limb and say that just about nobody on TD would have been OK with bringing Jackson Merrill up the the Twins when the Padres did. I mean he completely skipped AAA, and the year before in A+ and AA his OPS was .782 and .762. On top of the fact that he was only 20 years old when called up.

I think a lot of people on TD would have been okay with this. I just think he wouldn't have performed very well here. We get flashes, but there's something missing in the way we draft, develop or coach that would lead to a hugely productive season from a young rookie. When's the last time the Twins had a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate?

[Major League Ready]

31 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

SD has good player evaluations that's why they make good decisions in spotting good talent & problem spots. Beyond this, Prueller is great at initiating necessary trades, Falvey is terrible at both. These are the big differences between our teams. Twins should have dumped Falvey & find a FO more like Prueller.

Cleveland VS San Diego during Prueller's tenure.

				90-Win	80+
	Won	Lost	%	Seasons	Wins
Padres	729	789	0.480	1	3
Guardians	836	679	0.552	6	8

I would bet Cleveland also performs considerably better for the next 7-10 years.

[The Great Hambino]

9 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

I think a lot of people on TD would have been okay with this. I just think he wouldn't have performed very well here. We get flashes, but there's something missing in the way we draft, develop or coach that would lead to a hugely productive season from a young rookie. When's the last time the Twins had a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate?

That's a good question.  Had some fun perusing historical rookie of the year votes (no, I don't know how I keep the ladies at bay)

Since Marty Cordova won it, the the Twins have received exactly one first place ROY vote - Liriano in 2006.

It's a fun list of names showing up down ballot in these votes.  Mark Redman, Tony Fiore, Dustan Mohr, Eddy Julien (anyone remember that guy?)

Even funnier: the entire Twins franchise post-Cordova has received fewer first place ROY votes than their current manager did

[Doctor Gast]

38 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Cleveland VS San Diego during Prueller's tenure.

				90-Win	80+
	Won	Lost	%	Seasons	Wins
Padres	729	789	0.480	1	3
Guardians	836	679	0.552	6	8

I would bet Cleveland also performs considerably better for the next 7-10 years.

For the last few years, AL Central quality of competition has been very low while the NL West competition is crazy while teams try to keep up with LAD. But I agree CLE player development is very good that makes them competitive.

[chpettit19]

12 hours ago, 1985Fan said:

The coaching of Merrill seems to indicate the biggest difference between Twins and Padres. Players need to be confident to be successful in MLB. It’s very difficult to learn how to play at the MLB and do it good enough to gain confidence. Merrill’s success this year points to good coaching and management AND veteran leadership inside the clubhouse he could lean on. 
Twins didn’t have good coaching or management. Maybe new coaches will change that, but Rocco’s management will probably stay the same.
Player development in the Twins MiLB system is also lacking. Lewis, Miranda, Julien, and even Lee at times looked bad on defense. Twins as a whole are poor fundamentally.. Minor league staff need to be accountable for producing fundamentally sound players, not judged on time through the system. I think what hurts players is their emphasis on position flexibility vs. defense excellence. It hurts young players to try to play multiple positions before you learn how to play one really well. 
Maybe give Correa and Buxton a pass this year on veteran leadership failure. They weren’t in the clubhouse most of the year. But their playing time probably won’t improve much next year, so maybe the need is to bring in veterans with leadership ability. Farmer couldn’t be that guy this year while he was going through his terrible slump. 

I think the idea that the Twins move minor leaguers around defensively is widely overblown. They didn't move Lewis around until it was clear he wasn't their SS of the future because they had Correa. Miranda and Severino moved down the defensive spectrum as it was clear they couldn't field those other positions. Every team does that. The Twins actually kept Martin at SS way, way, way too long trying for "defense excellence" when it was clear his future was going to be more about "position flexibility." Lee didn't move off SS until well after he should have knowing he wasn't supplanting Correa. Larnach was always a cOF. Same with Wallner. Julien got tested at different spots early to see where he had the best chance to succeed and then was planted at 2B. Kirilloff was always a cOF/1B. 

The guys they move around (Prato, Helman, etc.) are guys who's only hope at an MLB future relies on them being able to fill in at multiple spots. I don't know where the storyline comes from that the Twins are moving their guys around a ton. It isn't true. The problem is more about the disconnect between not moving guys around in the minors but then moving them in the majors. They needed to move Martin, Lewis, and Lee off SS because it wasn't their future spot. They move guys too little, not too much.

[rv78]

9 hours ago, Patzky said:

'Wisely' is easier to discern ex post facto.

Wisely is NOT acquiring injured pitchers when you know they are having issues physically. Wisely is NOT acquiring a veteran Gallo who has hit under .200 the 3 seasons previously and has a lifetime batting Average under .200. Wisely is NOT acquiring pitchers that had 1 good season in their career, thinking they will replicate that 1 good season again, when their normal performance every year is NOT good.. Wisely is not having to roster 2 players for 1 position because you mistakenly gave a 6 year contract to a player that can't play more than half a season at a time and has proven it over his career to that point. Wisely is seeing other clubs back out on a player that they think is injury prone and doing the same instead of doing the opposite.