Will This Week Be the Last We See of Byron Buxton in Center Field?

[Matthew Trueblood]

Six months from now, the greatest defensive center fielder of his time might be relegated to a corner, or to designated hitter. He might be in another uniform. Is the clock running out on the face of the Twins franchise?

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

He's never played an inning anywhere else, and hardly anyone has had the temerity to suggest that he might. When you think Byron Buxton, you think of center field. His picturesque athletic proportions, speed that seems to cost him less effort than it costs others, and incredible feel for making the play once the ball comes within his reach make Buxton a breathtaking defender. His nickname comes partially from the fact that his name bumps up against it, but it's also an invitation to remember that Willie Mays's teammates called him "Buck," too--first for his paradoxically ungainly grace and speed, but later with reverential respect. Buxton, like Mays, draws your eye on the field at all times, and commands his teammates' awe both with prodigious talent and with his willingness to play through maladies of all kinds.

Yet, it might soon be time to dislodge the once-great fielder from a position that has contributed to his injury trouble over the years. Sadly, more than was true of Mays, Buxton's body has broken down and his athleticism has faded, even at age 30. This December, he'll turn 31, and his defense is in decline.

In the only approximation of a full season he ever played afield, back in 2017, Buxton chalked up 23 Defensive Runs Saved, according to Sports Info Solutions. Over the following five seasons, he only played 2,192 1/3 innings in total, but he was worth about 20 DRS per 1,000 frames--a remarkable rate that varied little from year to year, even as he played through minor injuries and had to return the season after more serious ones.

Those halcyon days, alas, are fading into memory. Infamously, Buxton didn't take up center field even once in 2023, relegated to DH duties full-time to manage a knee injury and survive the season as best he could. Coming back this year, he's played a lot out there, by his standards. His 727 innings in center are the most he's played since that 2017 campaign. Yet, he's only been worth 1 DRS--and there are some even worse indicators than that.

According to Baseball Prospectus's Range Out Score, which is a defensive rate stat, Buxton was pretty safely 5% better than the league average at reaching fly balls throughout his prime. That number fell to 1.9 in 2022, though, and this season, it's a shock to the system: -4.2. Buxton's range, by one model focused on scaling that very skill carefully, is now markedly worse than average. 

Baseball Savant offers a spin on this called Success Rate, which basically takes all playable fly balls and asks what percentage of them an outfielder catches. Buxton's rate hovered in the range between 92 and 96 percent in every season he spent in center, prior to this one. This year, he's at 87 percent. It's a stark change, for the worse.

We've still seen some moments that remind us what a wonder Buxton can be. We've still seen some heroics from him. On balance, though, the guy who changed the game for the better from his position in the outfield is gone. He'll keep running into walls, and keep hurling himself after the ball when his hips and knees allow him to get close to it, and that will still result in some incredible plays. It will also still result in some injuries, which are devastating to a franchise built so much around Buxton amid a pattern of shrinking payrolls. And worse, all that effort and speed and grace and excellence will keep becoming more infrequent--not because the spirit isn't willing, but because plainly, the body is only very intermittently able.

What to do about it if Buxton can't stay in center beyond this season is a big, daunting, sad question. It's impossible to answer it right now. Nonetheless, we have to admit that it's there, staring us in the face. Could he stay healthier and resist the temptation to break himself against the walls if he moved to left or right field? Can he be the major, consistent offensive threat he's been for much of this season if he moves back to a full-fledged DH role?

This week at Target Field, soak in Buxton, and pray to see some big plays from him. The Twins need them, and we all need a few more reminders of what a joy he has been over the years. There might not be any more such plays coming on the other side of a winter that suddenly both promises and ominously threatens change.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

This article makes me feel sad to read, but it is a very obvious question ongoing. Always appreciate your articles. Thanks!

[mnfireman]

I will take the current version of Buxton over what the farm system and FA has to offer this off-season. This subject can be approached again when one of Emma or Jenkins is ready.  

[bean5302]

Buxton will be the primary center fielder for the Twins for at least another couple years. Buxton's defensive metrics are way down this year, but the components show there's no reason to believe it's not going to rebound from a UZR/150 type standpoint. 

From an OAA standpoint, the components of his defense show Buxton is probably 70, maybe even 75 grade sprint speed at this point at 29.5 ft/sec (28ft/sec) is 60 grade and the bottom of solid CF play, I'd say. His reaction to balls of the bat is slower than average. Maybe missing a full year of outfield play has some impact on that. The rest, his jump, acceleration, range, arm strength, is all very good.

The Twins have no potential options to replace Buxton, no room in the payroll to sign somebody.

[DJL44]

There isn't anyone who is likely to take the job away from him in the minors. My guess is we'll see some combination of Emmanuel Rodriguez and Keirsey Jr play 60-100 games there next year anyway since Buxton can never play a full season.

[bean5302]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

There isn't anyone who is likely to take the job away from him in the minors. My guess is we'll see some combination of Emmanuel Rodriguez and Keirsey Jr play 60-100 games there next year anyway since Buxton can never play a full season.

Keirsey? He's like a poor man's Andrew Stevenson, who is a poor man's Ben Revere, who was a poor man's Billy Hamilton, who is a poor man's starting outfielder.

I honestly have no idea what the Twins will do about CF next year because I'm not sure the current front office will be the same next year when the Twins miss the playoffs. The team is a catastrophe from the top to the bottom in terms of ownership direction, operations vision, and on field management.

[mnfireman]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

There isn't anyone who is likely to take the job away from him in the minors. My guess is we'll see some combination of Emmanuel Rodriguez and Keirsey Jr play 60-100 games there next year anyway since Buxton can never play a full season.

Castro/Martin when Buxton needs a day off. One of Emma or Kiersey if Buxton's on the IL as neither Castro/Martin nor the team can handle extended time out there when/if he's on the IL.

[bean5302]

8 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Father time and injuries catch up to everybody at some point.  Torri had to switch from CF to a corner OF position and Buck will need to also at some point.  Let's enjoy what time we have left from him in CF.

Remember when the Twins had fans race against Twins' hitters at the Metrodome for doubles? You were always hoping you got Mike Redmond... not Cristian Guzman. Nobody would want to get Byron Buxton right now, haha. Hunter moved off CF, but he was never the speedster Buxton was, and Hunter had gotten the point he was a below average runner when he moved off CF. The big thing which pushes players off CF is a better defensive player coming up behind them. Like when Shane Mack started pushing Puckett off CF. The Twins don't have anybody to push Buxton off.

[DJL44]

22 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Keirsey? He's like a poor man's Andrew Stevenson, who is a poor man's Ben Revere, who was a poor man's Billy Hamilton, who is a poor man's starting outfielder.

Keirsey would be behind Emmanuel Rodriguez on my depth chart. He's not a starting outfielder, he's minor league depth. Unfortunately, Buxton's injury history means you will need to use the minor league depth at some point in the season.

[Jim wyllie]

Priblem is he's never stayed healthy enough to stay out in centerfold.  Martin was solid in limited time in center this season use him as a stop gap.  Buxton can't stay healthy and as evidenced in the 10th inning Wednesday in Cleveland he lacks both patience at the plate and veteran understanding to handle plate appearances well.   As even the commentator I believe it was moreau recognized the pitcher at the time wasn't throwing strikes and a hitter just had to let the pitcher pitch into a hitters count.  Yet buxton swung at to pitches well out of tge zone and flew out to end the innings leaving the bases loaded.  Not the approach expected from someone who is considered the face of the franchise.    It's time to move on from Buxton 

[Whitey333]

The Twins should have moved on from Buxton a couple of years ago.  He's totally undependable.  I feel sorry for him for all the injuries.  We never got to see much of him regularly.  Yes at times he shows flashes of brilliance  but always refle to his mediocre career batting  average of .245.  He's probably the most over-rated and over- hyped Twins player in recent memory.  It's amazing that people consider him the face of the franchise and he's only a part time player.  Truth is he just clogs up the roster with his never ending trips to the il.

 

 

Ns

[Karbo]

Buxton is still a guy I consider a "must watch" type. He stays in CF as long as he stays healthy, or someone in the minors really impresses. Simple fact is they win more when he's in the lineup, then when he's not!

[Craig Arko]

I don’t think so. Prove me right, Byron. 

[IndianaTwin]

Relegated to a corner OF next spring? By which, Larnach or Wallner? Because those are your starting corner OFs right now. They are not going to hand the job to Rodriguez on 30 plate appearances at St. Paul. And it seems quite unlikely they spend any money on a starting CF. 

Playing at DH? The experiment of last year and the desire for roster flexibility makes that unlikely. See previous paragraph when it comes to filling CF. 

In another uniform? He's got a no-trade contract.

In 2026 or 2027 or later, maybe. But as of now, if he is healthy at the end of spring training, it's about a 99.98 percent change he's the opening day CF. 

[ashbury]

"When healthy," Buxton's bat plays, even in a corner OF role.  The people last year who were saying that his numbers indicated who he really was as a hitter, and that his bat had always been overrated and the injuries were a bogus excuse, are mysteriously silent about it this year.

But the health issue is part of the full package of the player.  And at least to me, the eye-test lines up with the defensive stats, that he's now an average center fielder.  I thought his range was still good, and it was mainly his unwillingness to try risky plays that are costing him defensive value, in the name of keeping him on the field at all.  But maybe he's lost a step too.  He still has a remarkable ability to track fly balls and go get them on a straight line, and most importantly to "close the deal" when the ball is at the limit of what he can reach at the wall.

A bat that is good enough to let him play RF is more than enough to be an asset for an "average" defensive CFer, if that's what he is now.  I would be in no hurry to move him from the position.  He's Michael A. Taylor with a better bat. If the day ever comes that the three outfielders you want to start a given game because of their bats includes someone who can push Byron to a corner, that's for sure the time to move him, but until that day comes, he stays put if I'm in charge.  Even a diminished Buxton is better in CF than anyone else MLB-ready in the organization, including Keirsey for now (basing that on my small-sample eye-test of the latter trying to "close the deal" on a tough flyball at the wall).

[LambchoP]

I'm guessing Buck is our center fielder until Rodriguez or Jenkins take over. Unfortunately that means we'll be seeing lots of Keirsey, Martin and Castro in CF the next couple years while Buxton's on the injured list.

[MinnesotaTwins26]

I highly doubt it. With Kepler (probably) leaving it will open more doors for prospects like Austin Martin and Dashawn Keirsey Jr., but not in center field. Buxton is too valuable a player for the Twins to move from the outfield's most important position, even with a surplus of top outfield prospects. It will also be a while for E-Rod (Can I even say that?) to be called up and an even longer time before Walker Jenkins makes the move. Buxton is also a better option than Willi Castro, Austin Martin, and Royce Lewis (Although his outfield days are most likely over it's still possible...). Also, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner are not an option having both logged zero innings in CF, respectively. Finally, with the rare chance that Manuel Margot is signed again, his poor defense and atrocious offense have no chance of replacing Buxton's production even if #25 is injured for half the year.

[mikelink45]

The economics of this team say that they would trade him if he could agree. It's all about saving money. Otherwise, he starts when he can. And despite the naysayers I think Keirsey should be up next year and backing them up instead of the over 30. Margot. 

[ewen21]

How can a player be the face of a franchise when they play in slightly over half the games on the schedule over the last decade?

 

Too many accolades, accommodations and excuses and not enough reliability and production.  

[Matthew Trueblood]

30 minutes ago, ewen21 said:

How can a player be the face of a franchise when they play in slightly over half the games on the schedule over the last decade?

 

Too many accolades, accommodations and excuses and not enough reliability and production.  

Counterpoint: How could anything better exemplify, better embody the last few years of the Twins franchise than a player who plays slightly over half the games on the schedule?

[Doctor Wu]

Despite the fact that Buxton is getting older and his defensive metrics are down, I don't think we've seen the last of him in center field. Guys like Keirsey and Rodriguez don't seem like the ideal replacement candidates, at least for next season. And as others have noted, there is no way the front office is going to go out and sign any other Michael A. Taylor or Manuel Margot type backups for next season. Even with Kepler gone, I think our outfield is mostly set for next season.

[DJL44]

15 hours ago, Jim wyllie said:

Martin was solid in limited time in center this season use him as a stop gap. 

Austin Martin rates as one of the worst fielding CF used in the major leagues this season.

[Old Twins Cap]

Tuned in to a few innings in Cleveland last week, and it looked to me for all the world that Buck let a couple of very catchable line drives land in front of him.  Acutally, went back on them to play the bounce.

It's one thing to age out of a position, but I was hoping for a little more fire in the belly to win these crucial games.

[D.C Twins]

I suspect he'll stay there until Walter F-ing Jenkins or E-Rod is ready to displace him (probably 2026). 

The problem is that his bat does not play well enough for DH or a corner outfield position unfortunately.

I suspect that the Twins will end up eating a few years at the end of his contract via release or a trade where they still pick up the majority of his salary.  

[D.C Twins]

5 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

The economics of this team say that they would trade him if he could agree. It's all about saving money. Otherwise, he starts when he can. And despite the naysayers I think Keirsey should be up next year and backing them up instead of the over 30. Margot. 

But if Margot is not back next year.... how will we know how high he can take the hitless pinch-hitting record? (because you know that Rocco will be back and that if he has Margot available, he'll use him...)

[Craig Arko]

40 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

But if Margot is not back next year.... how will we know how high he can take the hitless pinch-hitting record? (because you know that Rocco will be back and that if he has Margot available, he'll use him...)

They won’t be able to afford Margot. How’s that for irony?

[Trov]

He may be getting worse on defense, but the question is he still better than anyone else we have to put there?  If so, then he plays there over others.  If not, you slid him to RF just like all the top CF have done in their careers when they lose a step. You knew it was going to happen before his contract was up.  

[David Maro]

Because of injuries Mike Trout is probably making the move to a corner OF position.It is time for Buxton to be open to the same.

[mnfireman]

1 hour ago, D.C Twins said:

The problem is that his bat does not play well enough for DH or a corner outfield position unfortunately.

 

His 145 wRC+ says different...

[Unwinder]

This site has become unbearably gloomy over the last month or so, if I knew what was good for me I'd log off until spring training.