Guardians 3, Twins 2 (10 Innings): Twins Walked Off Again, Cleveland Clinches Playoff Berth, Twins and Tigers Tied

[twinssporto]

I've said this before and will say it again. I really don't care if they win the division or not. The wild card system has made winning the division a somewhat moot objective. Over the last 10-15 years, the teams that win the World Series go into the playoffs with spirit and momentum. The Twins have neither. If they make the wild card I have almost zero faith they have the stamina, excitement or drive to last longer than a few games.

As a Twins fan and baseball fan for almost 40 years, I just don't see the swagger or confidence in this team at all. Sorry if that sounds negative but just sayin' what I'm seein'...

[karcherd]

Even if this team makes the playoffs, which right now I am not sure how they are going to pull themselves out of this tailspin, they need to do an honest assessment of the organization top to bottom.  You can blame the owners all you want and yes it was not a good look to reduce payroll this year but does their front office have the ability to create a sustainable winning team.  That is the first question that needs to be answered.

Do they use analytics as a tool or as the rule to all decisions.  Can they assess talent and put the tools in place to develop that talent. Their decision making has to be looked at.  They have tried to get by with scrap heap pitchers, this year they were relying on two pitchers (Stewart and Paddack) coming off injuries or limited innings history to play major roles on the staff with no real backup plan in place.  Another pitcher they traded for came with injury concerns and never pitched for us.  They don't value quality bullpen pieces treating them as fungible pieces that can be shuttled between St. Paul and Minneapolis.  They are building a roster with short side platoon players that becomes a weakness when there are injuries.

They need to assess the field staff, can they develop players, is the homerun or bust philosophy working or do you need different players to make it work.  Do you continue the platooning to the degree they do.

They need to decide to either go with the youngsters or bring in quality replacements, not a Santana or Gallo type, but a Pete Alonso or a proven outfielder whoever that might be.  It just feels like we are treading water and not really sure if they are going to play the youngsters who some aren't that young anymore or continue to cycle thru low cost and low productive veterans.  It feels like there is a disconnect with the younger players and this organization and too many seem to regress when they come up to the big club.  Coaching and development should not stop just because they are in the major leagues.  Again is Rocco and his hands off style better for a younger team.

I know they just rehauled their training staff, but are they doing everything they can optimally to keep players healthy and on the field.  If just feels like too many players are going down throughout the organization.  Maybe it's typical for everyone but I would hope they are going to look at this.

I don't have all the answers, but I know as a fan it doesn't feel like they have a direction and I would hope after potentially two collapses in three years they would want to take a deep dive into the organization.  And the one year they won the division was in a very weak division.

I bleed Twins and want to watch and have even through the 100 loss seasons, but this team is hard to watch, they just seem rudderless and the style of ball is not fun to watch.

 

[jkcarew]

4 hours ago, Peter said:

I don’t think so-I’ll stick with my twins. Pitching match ups favor twin-rough stretch right now but Detroit has Baltimore we got Boston when Monday hits we will have at least a 2 game lead. 

Baltimore is 3-7 in their last 10…which is worse than Boston…even worse than the Twins, somehow (thanks to the LA of A).

[bean5302]

The payroll argument really doesn't float with me out of the gate, but it sure does at the trade deadline.

The average MLB salary is about $4.5MM
The average MLB position player and starter production is 1.7 WAR
The average production costs $2.6MM/WAR
The average free agent production is about $7MM/WAR right now.

The Twins had several players they brought in or were well advised to trade to clear space.
Kyle Farmer 0.8 WAR at $6.3MM
Max Kepler 0.9 WAR at $10MM
Carlos Santana 2.8 WAR at $5.3MM
Manuel Margot -0.2 WAR at $4.0MM
Justin Topa 0.0 WAR at $1.3MM
Anthony Desclafani 0.0 WAR at $4.00MM
Josh Staumont 0.2 WAR at $1MM

The Twins got 1.5 WAR for $25.6MM from players they kept or traded to acquire to start the season
The Twins got 3.0 WAR for $6.3MM from free agents thanks to the Santana signing, though Jose Miranda would likely have been just as productive as Santana at 1B.

With $32MM freed up, could they have maybe done a bit better?

They didn't have a legitimate CF backup.
They didn't get that RH power bat.
They didn't get a front line starter.
 

[bean5302]

It seems like Sim has lost his mechanics. While his fastball hit 92-93mph at times during the game, in the 5th inning, it had dropped off to as low as 89mph, and it was routinely bouncing back and forth from 90 to 93. Feels less like general fatigue and more like his old mechanical issues rearing up.

Based on that, it does seem like Baldelli was well advised to pull him... but if Sim is needing to be pulled so early, why isn't Cole Irvin starting? Irvin's splits are better as a starter and he can certainly give the Twins 4 innings.

Baldelli was definitely well advised to put one of the worst base runners on the team in as the ghost runner, though. Not sure what spreadsheet suggested that.

[Lasorda_This_Out]

Have the Twins released the current YTD Home Attendance? And do they keep statistics on how many people take the Green Line to Target Field these days? I used to...not anymore...

[Aggies7]

7 minutes ago, Lasorda_This_Out said:

Have the Twins released the current YTD Home Attendance? And do they keep statistics on how many people take the Green Line to Target Field these days? I used to...not anymore...

They’re 23rd in the league with 1,811,473 in 75 dates

[Aggies7]

What’s really troubling is how bad the young guys have played in this last month or so. And I don’t mean just the SP’s. 

[Brandon27]

Not spending money in the offseason with no tv revenue coming in ,dumb trade at the deadline,cheap owners hurt this team I see this team only winning under 70 games and missing the playoffs and won't see a winning team for a long time.

[S Bart]

Yesterday, a person scolded individual negative postings on the Twins. It ticked me off a bit.

The team is a product that people support through buying tickets, TV subscriptions, merchandise, etc. They put themselves out there as being part of the community and use the state of Minnesota and the TC logo as part of their name. 

As such, the community certainly has a right to post positive and negative comments via remarks on this format.

A big frustration for me at the moment is tied to them having three rookie starting pictures who rarely make it past the 4th or 5th innings. Jax has been a stud and there are others such as Sands who have pitched decent. It takes the team 4-5 relief pitchers to finish the game when one of them pitches. Once again, the owners and management CHOOSE not to build up the relief pitching when they had a chance to do so last month.

Regarding the hitting, Santana leads the team in RBI's and home runs in addition to being a favorite for a golden glove. Odds are that he will be gone after this year, I see a new person (probably Miranda or Julian learning that role with on-the-job training) in that spot. There will be a learning curve.  It's similar to them not having a true back-up plan for Buxton this year due to them thinking he will not go on the IL.

The twins are at the point of needing defibrillation. Please, somebody get out the paddles.

In the immortal words of Yogi Berri, "It ain't over till it's over."

Trivia note:

I still recall the Hamms beer commercials with the bear....(land of sky-blue waters) playing with the Twins games. Did you know that Hamms was instrumental in bringing the Twins from Washington to Minnesota?

 

 

 

 

[singlesoverwalks]

The Twins led every game of this series 2-1 at some point. Ron Gardenhire or Tom Kelly, given the same players performing at the same level, would easily have gone 2-2 through bullpen management alone.

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, Dave Borton said:

You guys need to get interviewed on "Baseball is Dead." Jered is a big Red Sox promoter and has/had a podcast on the Sox.

I was unaware of Talk Sox.  Seth's mention of it is the first I've seen.  I wish it had existed* when I lived in the area 2015-21. 

I took a look just now, and found a thread entitled "fire alex cora".   First post was October 19, 2017.  Cora was hired three days later.  That's the Sawx fanbase for ya.  (The thread is still getting posts now and then.)

 

* ... in its present form, I mean.  It appears they took over an older site and put it into a TD-like format.

[mikelink45]

Once again I read the summary and hear about the speed of the hitball. Fortunately, Cleveland doesn't care how hard they hit the ball. They just want singles and runs. And we bring in Irvin and Theilbar in the most crucial game so far this season and expect to win. Come on. Sans was a good call, but Jax and Duran were the obvious players that should have stepped up for us.  

[UK Twin]

The bullpen is completely overworked so Rocco pulls SWR after 70 odd pitches and less than 5 innings pitched. Absolute masterclass that. Our lack of depth is not his fault but he cannot keep pulling SP's out just to get a matchup he likes (and it didn't even work - Manzardo got a hit!) SWR was pitching well enough to stay in the game. 

Our bullpen, apart from Jax and Duran, is a mish mash of unproven arms or washed up veterans (sorry Caleb, but you're finished). It's a good job Sands has stepped up this year or it would be in even worse shape. 

I've come to the conclusion that if we fail to make the play offs, Rocco has to go, simple as that. We had enough of a lead where. despite the injuries, we should have been more than comfortable in the WC positions. He just keeps making the same mistakes and the bullpen is now burnt out because of his ridiculous decisions to keep pulling the three rookie SP's early. Sometimes it's been unavoidable due to high pitch counts or they're getting hit around but he seems to be doing it every time they pitch. It's hardly a surprise the bullpen keep blowing leads. 

The payroll cutting cannot be solely blamed either. Cleveland have a low payroll and they have one of the best records in baseball this year. That has come down to good in game management and excellent coaching. 

[NotAboutWinning]

27 minutes ago, UK Twin said:

The payroll cutting cannot be solely blamed either. Cleveland have a low payroll and they have one of the best records in baseball this year. That has come down to good in game management and excellent coaching.

Apples to oranges. Cleveland does not have 1 player making $35m. Don't get me wrong, Correa is worth it. But when you make a commitment like that, reducing payroll to the bottom third of MLB is not reasonable. And on top of that you have a part-time CF making $15m, and an aging catcher at $10m. The math doesn't work. And it just gets worse next year when Pablo gets $22m. Who is the Twins CFO?

[Fezig]

13 hours ago, exeoud said:

So Cleveland wins the division with 75% of the Twins payroll and people think every problem would go away if the Pohlads spend more money? I'm not disagreeing they aren't part of the problem, because they are. But if your direct competitor does more with less then it's clearly more of a front office, player, and manager issue.

Obviously a manager problem.

https://x.com/Cle_Brendan52/status/1836881407114637480

[Karbo]

Cleveland just proved to the Twins how important a good bullpen is.

[Mark G]

41 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Cleveland just proved to the Twins how important a good bullpen is.

Exactly.  Their top 4 guys are all under 2.00 ERA, and have all pitched 71 or more games.  Clase is an absolute beast at the end; geez, the guy has given up 5 earned runs all year.  We could definitely learn a lesson from them.   

[chinmusic]

15 hours ago, AceWrigley said:

Perspective. Over this 4-game set with Cleveland, the Twins got 11 rbi's. Shohei Ohtani got 10 rbi's . . . today.

He also went 5 for 5 with RISP! Just a word on Ohtani. For me, the pinnacle of all his achievements had been striking out Mike Trout in the WBC. Truly stunning moment. There are no words, though, for what he did yesterday. Absolutely unreal. 

[Aggies7]

1 hour ago, Fezig said:

Obviously a manager problem.

https://x.com/Cle_Brendan52/status/1836881407114637480

Yikes.

[chpettit19]

9 hours ago, bean5302 said:

It seems like Sim has lost his mechanics. While his fastball hit 92-93mph at times during the game, in the 5th inning, it had dropped off to as low as 89mph, and it was routinely bouncing back and forth from 90 to 93. Feels less like general fatigue and more like his old mechanical issues rearing up.

Based on that, it does seem like Baldelli was well advised to pull him... but if Sim is needing to be pulled so early, why isn't Cole Irvin starting? Irvin's splits are better as a starter and he can certainly give the Twins 4 innings.

Baldelli was definitely well advised to put one of the worst base runners on the team in as the ghost runner, though. Not sure what spreadsheet suggested that.

Farmer was at 2B because he was the last out of the 9th. I assume he wasn't pinch ran for for defensive purposes for the bottom of the 10th. Seems like a pretty reasonable choice. Can't imagine the reaction here if they pinch run for him and Julien boots a ball in the 10th to lose the game.

[rv78]

So the Twins are now tied with Detroit for the last wild card spot. There's a ton of blame to be thrown around in just about every direction. Ownership for cutting payroll. Rocco for the way he manages. The FO for signing injured pitchers and signing replacement level players that really don't make the team better, and not making a significant move at the trade deadline. One thing I see that is not mentioned is the lack of production from the two highest paid players in the lineup. It's hard to win when supposedly your 2 best hitters aren't playing. For the 2nd year in a row they both either missed significant time when the team needed them most or were unproductive because of injuries. Anyone in their right mind would see that they cannot be counted on. Unfortunately the FO has hogtied this team for the next 4 years due to the no trade contracts they gave to the 2 super-duds. Imagine if they would have played down the stretch and made significant contributions to the lineup. Maybe they would have won half a dozen of the games they lost and the team wouldn't be in it's current situation of possible playoff elimination. Spending $50M, it'll be more next year, for 2 players that can't be counted on when you need them most is just a total waste of resources and pretty much impossible to overcome. Both players choked in the 10th inning of the game. Both players also produced zero runs the rest of the game. But where they really hurt this team, is by not playing the games that they need to be playing, and quite frankly, that's what they are being paid the big bucks for.

[karcherd]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

Cleveland just proved to the Twins how important a good bullpen is.

And also how to use a bullpen.  Clase has pitched one time before the 9th inning and that was when he hadn't pitched for 5 days.  Note to Rocco, it is ok to have a closer pitch in only the 9th inning.  At some point during the game other pitchers will have to pitch to the middle of the order and I would rather it be before the final innings.

[chpettit19]

30 minutes ago, karcherd said:

And also how to use a bullpen.  Clase has pitched one time before the 9th inning and that was when he hadn't pitched for 5 days.  Note to Rocco, it is ok to have a closer pitch in only the 9th inning.  At some point during the game other pitchers will have to pitch to the middle of the order and I would rather it be before the final innings.

While I agree that Duran should only be used in the 9th, it's not an apples to apples comparison to compare Vogt's bullpen management to Rocco's. If Rocco had an entire bullpen of shutdown guys he might (notice, I said might) do things differently. Vogt doesn't have a problem using other pitchers to face the middle of the order because he has half a dozen Duran's in his pen. The Twins have Duran and Jax and a bunch of question marks. Maybe add Sands to that.

But when your offense rarely scores more than 3 or 4 runs and you only have 3 good relievers you can't manage the same way as having 6 good relievers. I don't care if they fire Rocco before tonight's game, but I think it's unfair to compare the management styles of guys with significantly different talent levels at their disposal. Every manager with a bullpen like Cleveland's looks like a genius. Not saying Rocco is by any means a genius or maximizing his pen, but the talent in each pen is very different.

[NYCTK]

5 hours ago, UK Twin said:

The bullpen is completely overworked

This is just not true. The Twins bullpen is 20th in IP. 

The Guardians have 7 pitchers that have 54+ IP. The Twins have 3. 

[twinzcynic]

14 hours ago, mrcharlie said:

I would put it on coaching. Period. Rocco does not inspire 100% from his players.  Therefore the players lack focus and motivation. What a shame because good young players will learn bad habits under his leadership.

I still believe to this day that the most successful year under Rocco (2019) was due mainly to the leadership of dudes like Nelson Cruz, and it was not attributable to any genius pulling of the levers.

[karcherd]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

While I agree that Duran should only be used in the 9th, it's not an apples to apples comparison to compare Vogt's bullpen management to Rocco's. If Rocco had an entire bullpen of shutdown guys he might (notice, I said might) do things differently. Vogt doesn't have a problem using other pitchers to face the middle of the order because he has half a dozen Duran's in his pen. The Twins have Duran and Jax and a bunch of question marks. Maybe add Sands to that.

But when your offense rarely scores more than 3 or 4 runs and you only have 3 good relievers you can't manage the same way as having 6 good relievers. I don't care if they fire Rocco before tonight's game, but I think it's unfair to compare the management styles of guys with significantly different talent levels at their disposal. Every manager with a bullpen like Cleveland's looks like a genius. Not saying Rocco is by any means a genius or maximizing his pen, but the talent in each pen is very different.

Maybe Cleveland is doing a better of developing their bullpen arms, the top three guys after Clase are either in their first or second year.  So maybe some of it is on the FO for the construction of the roster, but Rocco very clearly has stated he tries to match up to hitters instead of a set role for the pitchers.  So there is a difference in philosophy and it does not seem to be working for the Twins,  They try to emulate other teams maybe try to build a bullpen like Cleveland has.

[chpettit19]

9 minutes ago, karcherd said:

Maybe Cleveland is doing a better of developing their bullpen arms, the top three guys after Clase are either in their first or second year.  So maybe some of it is on the FO for the construction of the roster, but Rocco very clearly has stated he tries to match up to hitters instead of a set role for the pitchers.  So there is a difference in philosophy and it does not seem to be working for the Twins,  They try to emulate other teams maybe try to build a bullpen like Cleveland has.

I agree there's a difference in philosophy, and that's why I said he might do things different. He used Duran in the 8th fewer times last year, but still followed that general matchup philosophy and the Twins had a top 5 bullpen. Cleveland used Clase basically exclusively in the 9th last year (1.1 innings pitched in the 8th) and had an average bullpen. Same philosophies, significantly different results. So is it the philosophy tanking the bullpen or is it that they don't have Thielbar at the top of his game or Stewart at all or Pagan (as hard as it is to say) slicing and dicing? 

The Twins followed the same general philosophy last year with Duran, Jax, Stewart, Thielbar, and Pagan all being very good relievers. And they had a top 5 bullpen. They follow it this year with Duran, Jax, and Sands being their only very good relievers and they're not top 5. Is it the philosophy or talent that's the problem? I'd buy that it's a bit of both (again, I would only use Duran in the 9th). But when Cleveland lacked talented arms they weren't the best in baseball even though they only used Clase in the 9th. I put it far more on talent than philosophy when the philosophy doesn't change but the talent does and then you see result changes.

[David Maro]

Carl Willis has been and is the best pitching coach in baseball.Cleveland has a totally different starting 5 from the start of the season.He had the Twins looking like little leaguers at the plate.When a starter starts to show signs of breaking down they trade them.They also have the best BP with half of that staff on the IL that started the season.

[hitterscount]

11 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The payroll argument really doesn't float with me out of the gate, but it sure does at the trade deadline.

The average MLB salary is about $4.5MM
The average MLB position player and starter production is 1.7 WAR
The average production costs $2.6MM/WAR
The average free agent production is about $7MM/WAR right now.

The Twins had several players they brought in or were well advised to trade to clear space.
Kyle Farmer 0.8 WAR at $6.3MM
Max Kepler 0.9 WAR at $10MM
Carlos Santana 2.8 WAR at $5.3MM
Manuel Margot -0.2 WAR at $4.0MM
Justin Topa 0.0 WAR at $1.3MM
Anthony Desclafani 0.0 WAR at $4.00MM
Josh Staumont 0.2 WAR at $1MM

The Twins got 1.5 WAR for $25.6MM from players they kept or traded to acquire to start the season
The Twins got 3.0 WAR for $6.3MM from free agents thanks to the Santana signing, though Jose Miranda would likely have been just as productive as Santana at 1B.

With $32MM freed up, could they have maybe done a bit better?

They didn't have a legitimate CF backup.
They didn't get that RH power bat.
They didn't get a front line starter.
 

Agree with everything you are saying other than Santana. I cannot dump on the guy. He has bailed us out in several games this season with a a few clutch hits. As far as Miranda, he could not provide the defense that Santana has, poor defense has been a problem for the team this year.