Make It Official! Twins 4, Blue Jays 3: Royce Lewis Undoes That Slump Thing

[Hans Birkeland]

The Twins have been leaking oil lately, but entered Sunday's rubber match with a chance to pick up a much-needed series win against the Blue Jays. Bailey Ober rebounded from his disaster against Atlanta on Monday, allowing only one hit. It seemed for a while that that hit, a home run in the first, would hold up, but Royce Lewis turned the game around.

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 6 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 8 K (94 Pitches, 62 Strikes, 65.9%)
Home Runs: Royce Lewis (16)
Top 3 WPA: Lewis (.586), Ober (.194), Jhoan Duran (.161)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

The nice thing about team sports is that losing by 15 is the same as losing by one--most of the time, anyway. In stroke play golf, losing 15 strokes means you will not win the tournament. With the Guardians, Royals and Red Sox all losing Saturday, though, the Twins' playoff prospects slightly improved, despite their own shellacking. Not only that, but losing a blowout means your best relief arms were not used.

Which is all to sugarcoat the fact that this team is not playing well, and if the Red Sox were operating with any sort of functionality, the sixth playoff spot would be in serious danger. Instead, the Tigers are threatening to overtake Boston in the standings as they won their three-game weekend series at Fenway Park.

The Twins received some reinforcements with rosters expanding for September. Diego Castillo returns to the bullpen, and Brooks Lee returns to shortstop, while Michael Helman had his contract purchased in the wake of Manuel Margot's injury. Castillo and Helman are depth pieces, but Lee's return means the Twins will play a pure shortstop rather than Willi Castro or Kyle Farmer. The former lacks the instincts, the latter lacks the range and arm, but Lee has shown flashes of being a B+ level shortstop. He also pushes Castro to more of a utility role, which helps with pinch-hitting and defensive replacements later in games.

Today's game pitted Bailey Ober against Blue Jays rookie Yariel Roodriguez. The game started auspiciously, given Ober's most recent start, and the Twins' most recent game, with Ernie Clement taking Ober deep on a first pitch fastball up in the zone. But Ober did settle in after that, with no real threats in the Jay's lineup (Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Daulton Varsho had the day off).

Rodriguez turned some heads in the World Baseball Classic pitching for Cuba. There was a minor bidding war for his services after he became an international free agent, but what the Jays ended up getting was middling performance around a spinal injury and a brief demotion to Triple-A. He began Sunday's tilt by getting a favorable call on a 3-2 pitch to Willi Castro, then allowing a hit and two walks before retiring Royce Lewis on a warning track fly ball.

Rodriguez was not long for the game, leaving after three innings in favor of career bulk pitcher, lefty Ryan Yarbrough. The last time the Jays removed a pitcher early at Target Field in favor of a lefty for unclear or dubious reasons, it did not go well for them. Today, Yarbrough started by hitting Austin Martin, who advanced to second on a grounder from Lewis. Max Kepler then popped up, and second baseman Leo Jimenez made a Derek Jeter-style diving catch, jumping into the stands with no concern for his well-being. Lee then popped out to end the threat and keep the game at 1-0.

Ober coasted through much of the game, keeping the Jays off balance with a mix of his fastball and change-up. After an impressive ten pitch at-bat resulting in a walk from Nathan Lukes leading off the sixth, Lee misplayed a little soft liner from Clement to put runners at first and second with no one out. That brought back memories of a week and a half ago, where Jake Cronenworth's blooper set up Manny Machado's game-breaking homer off Ober. This time, with no borderline Hall of Famers to contend with, Ober struck out the side, two on fastballs, one on a beautiful change-up to right fielder Addison Barger. Ober did not allow a hit following the first inning home run.

As it started to feel like one run would be too much to overcome for the Twins' lineup, Lewis began the seventh inning by drawing a walk. A stitched together husk of what used to be Max Kepler then struck out, bringing up Lee to face lefty Brendon Little. Lee grounded to the third baseman, Luis De Los Santos, who threw wildly trying to get the lead runner, with the ball ending up in right field. That put runners on the corners for Santana, who dribbled a ball up the third base line to score Lewis and tie the game. Castro then drew a walk, but Miranda struck out to end the frame.

---

Twins Daily's winning "Make It Official!" game recaps are sponsored by Official Fried Chicken, which you can find in center field of Target Field. With a name like "Official," we know we have to be the best in the game every day, and from your first bite, you'll know that's a promise we make good on.

---

The Jays put pressure on Griffin Jax immediately in the eighth. Lukes drew a walk on a questionable 3-2 call that went Toronto's way, and Clement then smacked a single the other way, bringing up Spencer Horowitz, one of the heroes of Saturday's disemboweling. Horowitz lined out to deep center on a 3-1 pitch, and Barger drew a walk. Jax then hit Jimenez with the first pitch of the at-bat, scoring Lukes and handing the lead back to Toronto. Joey Loperfido then hit a run scoring chopper to score Clement. Jax had not allowed an earned run the entire month of August.

You may have heard that the Jays' excellent closer, Jordan Romano, has been injured and ineffective this year. He remains out, but former Yankee errand-boy Chad Green has stepped into the closer role and been excellent, with a 1.61 ERA entering the day. He allowed back-to-back hits to Jeffers and Martin and got into a lengthy battle with Lewis, who fouled off some tough pitches and missed hittable ones before getting a slider on the eighth pitch of the at-bat and launching it just over Lukes' outstretched glove for a three-run, game-changing home run, a 60% change in win-expectancy.

Jhoan Duran was then called up on to protect the newfound lead. He locked up De Los Santos with three curveball but hit backup catcher Brian Serven with a 102 MPH fastball. He then got Lukes to dribble the ball back to the mound, where Duran non-chalantly gathered and threw to first, barely retiring Lukes and prompting a challenge from the Jays' bench. The call was confirmed and Duran retired Clement to seal the desperately-needed series win.

Trends:

	Healthy	Hurt
High Impact
Medium Impact
Low Impact
IL/Minors
C	Ryan Jeffers 📈	Christian Vazquez 📈
1B	Carlos Santana 📈	Alex Kirilloff 📉	Jose Miranda 📈
2B	Edouard Julien 📈	Kyle Farmer 📈'
3B	Royce Lewis 📈
SS	Carlos Correa 📉	Brooks Lee 📈
LF	Matt Wallner 📈	Trevor Larnach 📈	Austin Martin 📉
CF	Byron Buxton 📉	Manuel Margot 📉
RF	Max Kepler 📉
UTIL	Willi Castro 📈	Michael Helman 📈
SP	Pablo Lopez 📈	Bailey Ober 📈	Joe Ryan 📉	Chris Paddack 📉	Louie Varland 📈
RSP	David Festa 📈	Zebby Matthews 📉	Simeon Woods Richardson 📈
CR	Jhoan Duran 📉	Griffin Jax 📈
SR	Brock Stewart 📉	Jorge Alcala 📉	Cole Sands 📈
MR	Caleb Thielbar 📈	Scott Blewett 📈
LR	Josh Winder 📈	Ronny Henriquez 📈	Randy Dobnak 📉	Diego Castillo 📈

Stray Notes:
-I thought they might do it, with Carlos Santana pinch-hitting for second baseman Edouard Julien in the fifth, and they did it, switching Santana to first for Miranda, putting Miranda at third and inserting Lewis at second. It went well, with Lewis making two putouts in the seventh inning behind Cole Sands.

What’s Next: Simeon Woods Richardson (5-3, 3.85 ERA) goes against former Twin Zack Littell (5-8, 3.89 ERA) The Rays sold off everything that wasn't nailed down this past trade deadline, but remain the Rays and have hung around the .500 Mark, a hot streak away from jumping back into contention. SWR deserved better his last time out against the Braves, and is looking to finish strong as he makes his case to be the Twins' number three starter for a potential playoff run.

Postgame Interviews:

 

Bullpen Usage Chart:

	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	TOT
Tonkin	25	0	0	37	0	62
Blewett	0	0	0	54	0	54
Thielbar	16	0	0	19	0	35
Jax	0	0	3	0	27	30
Durán	0	0	11	0	13	24
Henríquez	19	0	0	0	0	19
Sands	0	0	0	0	13	13
Alcalá	8	0	0	0	0	8

 

 

View full article

[BH67]

Paging Mr. Gaetti...,Mr. Gary Gaetti...please bring your combustible 1987 self to the Twins locker room immediately. But don't tell Rocco you're coming.

(Postscript for context: I'm venting about the collectively catatonic Twins bats in the last two weeks, and how G-Man would abruptly dispel any catatonic clubhouse atmosphere. I posted this no matter today's outcome. Hopefully Royce's "oxygen rush" will serve the same purpose.)

Edited September 2, 2024 by BH67
Clarification of intent.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't understand why the Twins were allowed to bat in the eighth. According to the game thread, the game was over in the top half. 

[BH67]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't understand why the Twins were allowed to bat in the eighth. According to the game thread, the game was over in the top half. 

Normally you'd get an instant "haha" from me, Mike. Today I'd have joined them at least in spirit. The comeback felt more lucky than determined -- but a win's a win.

[DJL44]

I will note I got a "thumbs down" in another thread when I said they need to get Royce hitting bombs again.

[CRF]

I sure hope that Lewis undoes the "slump thing" with the clutch HR today. I guess we'll see if that's the case in the next series with TB. We definitely could use his bat.

[mikelink45]

14 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I will note I got a "thumbs down" in another thread when I said they need to get Royce hitting bombs again.

I think the thumbs down has become a popular tool.  I have accumulated a number of them and probably deserved it.

[BH67]

1 minute ago, mikelink45 said:

I think the thumbs down has become a popular tool.  I have accumulated a number of them and probably deserved it.

It is frequently a badge of honor, especially so during prolonged Twins batting slumps.

[Mike Sixel]

37 minutes ago, BH67 said:

Normally you'd get an instant "haha" from me, Mike. Today I'd have joined them at least in spirit. The comeback felt more lucky than determined -- but a win's a win.

Fair

[D.C Twins]

ROYCE F-ING LEWIS (i've missed typing that for awhile...)

[D.C Twins]

24 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I will note I got a "thumbs down" in another thread when I said they need to get Royce hitting bombs again.

I kid with my thumbs down above :)

[D.C Twins]

28 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I will note I got a "thumbs down" in another thread when I said they need to get Royce hitting bombs again.

[joefish]

Jax gives up 2 runs, and the lead, but gets the W.

It's a funny game that way.

Atta Lewis.

[cmoss84]

Winner. Winner. Official fried chicken dinner. 

[Colbeh]

Forgot that Jax was even human. He had me fooled for a bit.

[Schmoeman5]

14 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

If he hits consistently, the "bombs" will happen. Instead of the hot and cold. A lot of AB where he was just pull happy "trying" to hit bombs. He's better than that.

[Doctor Gast]

It's great to see Lewis being Lewis. Looks like he's back. Although apprehensive he did fine at 2B. Ober pitched a great 1 run, 1 hit, 8 Ks 6 innings game. Not to take anything from Jax but IMO if a pitcher gives up a tie with 2 runs in 1 inning, doesn't deserves the win over an Ober performance.

[cmoss84]

Just now, Schmoeman5 said:

If he hits consistently, the "bombs" will happen. Instead of the hot and cold. A lot of AB where he was just pull happy "trying" to hit bombs. He's better than that.

Agreed...but so is Miguel Sano.

[Schmoeman5]

1 minute ago, cmoss84 said:

Agreed...but so is Miguel Sano.

A good reason he's really no longer relevant. 

[cmoss84]

Just now, Schmoeman5 said:

A good reason he's really no longer relevant. 

So frustrating. He showed signs of hitting it the other way but just can't help himself. Does he not know he's huge and if he hits the ball it will be a missile?

[Peter]

This was way way way stressful 😬😬😬😬😬my nerves are fried 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 this was must win as we’ll season saving win!!! Huge huge huge!!! Let’s build on this and get on winning streak and take back division lead!!! Go Twins!!!

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, BH67 said:

Normally you'd get an instant "haha" from me, Mike. Today I'd have joined them at least in spirit. The comeback felt more lucky than determined -- but a win's a win.

You make your own luck. Lewis deposited a mistake pitch. 

That said, it was a pretty ugly game offensively for both sides. I laughed out loud listening to the Toronto broadcast agreeing with the Schneider's decision not to "disrupt," Guerrero Jr.'s rest day and pinch hit him in the 8th with the bases loaded or the 9th down a single run. I guess they haven't figured out their season is over in a few weeks? Regardless, we owe him a collective thank you. 

[Mike Sixel]

13 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

It's great to see Lewis being Lewis. Ober pitched a great 1 run, 1 hit, 8 Ks 6 innings game. Not to take anything from Jax but IMO if a pitcher gives up a tie with 2 runs in 1 inning, doesn't deserves the win over an Ober performance.

Example one million why this stat is not good, imo. 

[Nashvilletwin]

Not Jax’s best obviously, but he gets out of that inning if the ump calls a perfect pitch the strike that it was.  If the ump had called the game correctly in the first, we would have scored two on walks alone and then who knows how many.

The automated balls/strikes can’t come soon enough.  The count is virtually everything in baseball and balls deserve to be balls and strikes deserve to be strikes. The technology is there. Today’s home plate ump was atrocious.

[TheLeviathan]

Look...winning this game wouldnt have been hard.  When those of us smart Twins are sitting down in our recliners in Willmar or Tuscon (escaping our sad, miserable, toxic existence) we can predict with perfect accuracy what Rocco should have done once events have already occurred.  It isn't hard at that point once things happen and we retroactively apply our logic with new, previously unavailable outcomes.  Had Rocco just gotten tossed in inning two pointlessly arguing....we save yet another loss.

 

Pathetic.

[tony&rodney]

26 minutes ago, Peter said:

This was way way way stressful 😬😬😬😬😬my nerves are fried 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 this was must win as we’ll season saving win!!! Huge huge huge!!! Let’s build on this and get on winning streak and take back division lead!!! Go Twins!!!

The only must win is the game that eliminates a team from going any further. In the playoffs it is the last game whereas in the regular season it just happens. That's baseball. On to beautiful downtown St. Petersburg and the morgue that is Tropicana. Nice place, the players love going there. Hope the Twins win 3 of 4. Is that greedy? 

[wabene]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't understand why the Twins were allowed to bat in the eighth. According to the game thread, the game was over in the top half. 

THIS IS NOT A PLAYOFF TEAM!!!!! 😭 

[DocBauer]

Couldn't watch the games, but doesn't, Ober pitched well, Lewis was a hero, and we won a much needed game!

Does this get Lewis comfortable and confident again? MLB is fluid over a long season. He's due to ride a high tide again.

Despite the blow-up Saturday, Festa and Matthews are top young arms who have certainly flashed. Their ML time right now is huge for 2025, but for right now, we just need them to be solid/competitive for September. 

Without Buxton or Correa, the offense still has enough talent to be better than they've been lately. Its almost as if everyone got cold at the same time. Pressure? Lee back helps the flexibility of the lineup, and HOPEFULLY his bat is helpful as well.

Okert and Richards gone might be a positive through subtraction. A lot of misgivings about the addition of Tonkin. I disagree. He's nothing special. But he's built a fairly decent career as a solid middle man. He was good for about 30 IP with the Yankees before going in to a slump. But if a tweak here or there gets him on track, he only needs to be a solid 1-2 IP middle guy, NOT some 7th or 8th inning savior. He just needs to be able to keep the game close/same for that 1 or 2 innings. Winder MIGHT be able to be the same.

Varland has the pure stuff to be a real weapon in the 7th and 8th. But he doesn't have to be NOW. He could be, but he doesn't have to be. He just needs to come in and fire hard and good stuff before the top 4 come in. And speaking of, is Alcala running out if gas? Or is he just in a rough patch? If Alcala is OK, then Varland is #5. Then we just need a couple guys to be solid in the middle innings. As of now, we've got Tonkin, Winder, Blewitt, MAYBE Castillo, Henriquez and Thielbar to fill that role. Funderburk might be back soon, and he's much younger and has better stuff than Thielbar despite still struggling with control. Could he be a better option? 

I know it's a long shot considering late season timing/pressure, but if Helman can display a solid approach at the plate with his first appearance, he offers a RH bat to replace Margot with more power, better speed at this point, and better position flexibility. Considering how bad Margot's defense has been, IF Helman can be a "decent" hitter, he might be a better option???

This was one game, but a needed win. Now comes a road trip with a few changes/reinforcements with our Twins STILL projected to the playoffs, but still a decent chance of winning the ALC if they can have short term memory and wipe away the last 2 weeks. They had a solid July and first couple of weeks in August. Put in some oil, check the coolant, and wiper fluid just in case, check the tire pressure, grab some snacks, and hit the road and just take care of business.

Just trust you locked the front door, turned on the alarm system, and roll on down the hiway to do what you need to do. You've got a couple extra drivers to help read the map and help with drive time. Just focus on the journey's end.

[Linus]

1 hour ago, TheLeviathan said:

Look...winning this game wouldnt have been hard.  When those of us smart Twins are sitting down in our recliners in Willmar or Tuscon (escaping our sad, miserable, toxic existence) we can predict with perfect accuracy what Rocco should have done once events have already occurred.  It isn't hard at that point once things happen and we retroactively apply our logic with new, previously unavailable outcomes.  Had Rocco just gotten tossed in inning two pointlessly arguing....we save yet another loss.

 

Pathetic.

I like your other method better. 

[DJL44]

Did Royce get a fielding chance at 2B?