Can Royce Lewis Stick at Third Base, or Do Twins Need to Move Him Elsewhere?

[jmlease1]

27 minutes ago, David Maro said:

If Lewis is going to stay at third he should have stayed at AAA. You don't learn to play a position in the majors. He has the glove, but his throws are air mailed. With someone other than Santana playing 1st you would see many more errors. He would be better suited playing LF or 1st.The team does need his bat in the lineup, so he should be doing what is best for the team.

Players learn a new position in MLB all the time, though. And LF or 1B would be completely new positions for Royce (not sure he's ever played either in the minors), so are you suggesting we pull him down in AAA to learn LF?!?

Royce hasn't been great at 3B, but he's been about as good as Miranda was in his first MLB season there...and Miranda has improved substantially with his defense over time. Patience is in order.

[LambchoP]

I like Lewis and Miranda covering 1b/3rd base. Either can DH as well. Having both of them in the lineup at the same time should be priority. If we give Santana another year, which is an idea I like, then he'll cover first. Lee/Julien at 2nd. Correa at SS. Lewis and Miranda cover 3rd and DH. Wallner will be our starting right fielder so he'll get less DH at bats. As much as I like Castro and to a lesser extent Martin, I hope Twins go out and get a good left fielder. Even if it's a one year deal until E Rodriguez is ready. Plus, we need a Buxton backup. Which is why I'd like to see if Keirsey can stick in the majors...

[4twinsJA]

Royce is not 100% physically this year. Tough to judge, but will he ever be 100%. I like him at 3rd.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

Lewis is going to have a few defensive homes in his career. Has anyone else noticed that he has added weight and muscle mass to his core?  He isnt lanky anymore. Eventually he will probably move to 1B and when he is still hitting HR’s every other AB, he will become a DH at 41 years old. 

Dont think he will be in MLB at 41

[bean5302]

Falvey's front office has a long history of developing poor fielders. Quality fielding is not something we're going to see coming up from the minors from this front office. Theoretical versatility is their focus name of the game. What's the last good fielder the Twins have developed under Falvey? Go ahead. Take a minute to think about it.
Rooker?
Larnach?
Julien?
Polanco?
Gordon?
Miranda?
Martin?
Kirilloff?
Jeffers?

Kepler, Sano and Buxton all reached the majors under Terry Ryan. The Twins ditched their only premier fielding prospect in recent years, Noah Miller, a prospect who looks like a perennial gold glover if his bat can play. Brooks Lee has looked good in ultra small sample sizes, but he's also had a couple costly misplays not to mention Brooks Lee came into the Twins' organization well coached and out of college with great defensive instincts to begin with.

Advocating a top tier athlete who plays a premium defensive position be moved to first base seems to border on trolling. If Lewis wants to become an elite 3B, he can. If Lewis wants to become a good SS, he can. He's got the tools. Now he needs decent coaching, effort, and experience.

[KBJ1]

When Lewis made the scene in 2022 there was a rush to get his bat into the lineup. I was at that I'll fated game where  he blew out his knee in CF.

Thiat said, LF would seem to be where the team needs him most. Lewis is an excellent athlete and LF is a safer and easier position than CF or 2B.

We have a plethora of capable infielders, potentially a great one, and Lewis is the least of them. He is however, the best bat and putting him in LF is the best fit by far. 

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I agree with everyone else that it's too soon to pull the plug on him at 3B. I'm not sure he's the best option there (I think Lee is better there defensively), but until somebody pushes him out of the spot I wouldn't move him yet. I do think, no matter where he plays, he should spend the offseason reworking his throwing motion, though.

I've never seen such an athletic person look so uncomfortable throwing. I don't remember if he's always thrown that way or if he's trying to emulate Correa or what, but it looks like he's thinking about how to throw the ball on routine plays and it looks so uncomfortable. On quick hitting plays where he isn't thinking and is just reacting and playing he looks much more athletic, to me. But on routine plays where he takes a couple hop steps to first and throws from that super uncomfortable looking angle he looks like he's thinking about everything and he looks so unathletic. Whether he moves to 2B, or even 1B (I hope he's not all the way down to 1B anytime soon), I think they should rework his throwing motion.

This is what I see as well and reminds me again that he still has less than 500 games total in all levels of pro ball in 6 years.  Very little of it uninterrupted by injury.  He just now has 100 games at third.  A lot of what we see is coachable and technique related and a lot is just experience and reps.

I'm of the mind that I want to see him there for a healthy full season but I'm also afraid he might just not be a major league 3rd baseman.  I don't have a lot of memories of his time at short but 55 errors in just over 300 games (.955 field %) is unfortunately very similar to what we are seeing at third now.  

The Padres might be one to emulate here.  Former (well paid) SS Tatis is platinum glove in right, Uber SS prospect Merrill is a stud in center.  Even Profar came up as a SS.

Lewis is probably a darn good left fielder at the end of the day and Boras is well aware that if he is winning gold gloves and raking he gets his money anyway.  The longer he stays at third, if he in fact cannot play there long term, only lowers the value and risks injury.  Having legitimate dudes to fill in behind him helps.

The next 12 months will tell us a lot. 

[joefish]

Heck, put him at catcher. I'm sure he can't play there either.

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

I might be no one, but I'm talking about moving Lewis to first base.

In 2025, of course. 

We need to get past the fallacy that a base hit counts for less or more depending on where you stand on defense. 

Which I'll say again, if we're seriously talking about moving him to 1B, trade him. Of course, no one serious is actually discussing it so its moot.

But if we're talking about an admittedly elite bat that can't stay on the field, and now moving to 1B? Never heard an idea more ridiculous. 

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, Parfigliano said:

Dont think he will be in MLB at 41

His bat is truly elite. To the point I could see him being like Nelson Cruz or Thome and just being a full time DH at 35 until their bat speed finally falls off. 

[NYCTK]

35 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Martin?

It really is shocking how bad Martin has been. What good is a utility man that can play many positions poorly? 

[USAFChief]

14 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Which I'll say again, if we're seriously talking about moving him to 1B, trade him. Of course, no one serious is actually discussing it so its moot.

But if we're talking about an admittedly elite bat that can't stay on the field, and now moving to 1B? Never heard an idea more ridiculous. 

Why would you trade an elite bat?

And why is 1st base some badge of dishonor? Should the Twins have traded Harmon Killebrew rather than move him to 1st? From 3rd, BTW.

Was Hrbek worthless? Morneau? 

Again, we need to move past the idea that somehow Lewis's offense doesn't count as much if he's standing at 1st. They don't deduct 15 runs at the end of the season in real life like they do at Fangraphs. 

He can be a good first baseman, and possibly be more likely to stay on the field. The Twins need a 1st baseman too.

 

[NYCTK]

36 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Noah Miller, a prospect who looks like a perennial gold glover if his bat can play

Dude has hit 230 in his minors career. He has made it up to AA, but even if he makes the show, he's going to be a backup infielder. They were completely right to trade him away. But sadly we had to take Margot in return so they won the trade by default. 

[NYCTK]

36 minutes ago, KBJ1 said:

I was at that I'll fated game where  he blew out his knee in CF.

It's easy to say it was a mistake in hindsight, but the team did the 100% right thing by playing him at that position on that day. You can't be afraid to move ATHLETES around the field because you're afraid someone's body is made of glass. 

 

[Linus]

45 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Falvey's front office has a long history of developing poor fielders. Quality fielding is not something we're going to see coming up from the minors from this front office. Theoretical versatility is their focus name of the game. What's the last good fielder the Twins have developed under Falvey? Go ahead. Take a minute to think about it.
Rooker?
Larnach?
Julien?
Polanco?
Gordon?
Miranda?
Martin?
Kirilloff?
Jeffers?

Kepler, Sano and Buxton all reached the majors under Terry Ryan. The Twins ditched their only premier fielding prospect in recent years, Noah Miller, a prospect who looks like a perennial gold glover if his bat can play. Brooks Lee has looked good in ultra small sample sizes, but he's also had a couple costly misplays not to mention Brooks Lee came into the Twins' organization well coached and out of college with great defensive instincts to begin with.

Advocating a top tier athlete who plays a premium defensive position be moved to first base seems to border on trolling. If Lewis wants to become an elite 3B, he can. If Lewis wants to become a good SS, he can. He's got the tools. Now he needs decent coaching, effort, and experience.

I think you have a valid point. This FO values the bat almost exclusively and worries about where they will play later. Perhaps this is the correct strategy as it is certainly based on a ton of research. But it is also clear why we don’t have many plus defenders coming from our system. I agree with you that Royce should be a plus defender somewhere but it won’t be SS. 

[Craig Arko]

I think both Miranda and Lee are better third basemen. Wanna have all of those bats in the lineup.

[TFRazor]

He's played a total of 624 innings at third. That breaks down 69.33 games at 3rd. Not even half a season. Could they move him? Sure. Should they? Maybe let's wait for bigger sample.

[TFRazor]

1 minute ago, TFRazor said:

He's played a total of 624 innings at third. That breaks down 69.33 games at 3rd. Not even half a season. Could they move him? Sure. Should they? Maybe let's wait for bigger sample.

Will also point out, that according to statcast, he's got a better success and expected success rate this year than last by about 4 percentage points. 68/69 in 2023 to 72/73 in 2024. 

[gman]

There are 42 more games left in the regular season and I hope more left in the playoffs. I hope most of the games have Lewis at third, Correa at short, Lee at second and Santana at 3rd. With Miranda bouncing around first, third and Dh. I doubt they resign Santana although he looks like he deserves a 2-3 year contract but I doubt the Twins offer the money. Kepler won't be back, the second half of last year looks to have been a fluke.

Next year I think Lewis plays third with Lee at second, Correa at short  and probably Miranda at first. Kirilloff is a question mark, though he is a very good hitter when healthy. Julian and Keaschall will be beating on the major league door.  Keaschall also plays some outfield and as a right handed hitter he may get a lot of time backing up center and starting in left. Probably more towards the middle of the year. Hopefully the offseason programs consist of plenty of time spent learning to stay healthy and reporting when injured.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

I might be no one, but I'm talking about moving Lewis to first base.

In 2025, of course. 

We need to get past the fallacy that a base hit counts for less or more depending on where you stand on defense. 

If it's a fallacy, why doesn't a 1B that hits like Correa or Lindor get paid like Correa or Lindor?  It's much easier to find a 1B that is a well above average hitter than it is to find a catcher, CF or SS.  Therefore, an elite hitter in a premium defensive position provides a team with an advantage.

[NYCTK]

5 minutes ago, TFRazor said:

Will also point out, that according to statcast, he's got a better success and expected success rate this year than last by about 4 percentage points. 68/69 in 2023 to 72/73 in 2024. 

Which is slightly better than Miranda this year and way better than Miranda last year. And his arm is significantly stronger than Miranda's. But sure, let's move the better athlete and defender off the position based on a fabricated belief that it might help him stay healthier? 

[NYCTK]

1 minute ago, gman said:

Lee at second

Would love to see Lee play well enough to earn 2B, but man he really stunk. The last 89 PAs his OPS was 520. He didn't look outmatched and his peripherals suggest he should perform much better than that. But woof! I have a lot more faith in him being a good big leaguer than Julien, though, that's for sure. 

[USAFChief]

5 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

If it's a fallacy, why doesn't a 1B that hits like Correa or Lindor get paid like Correa or Lindor?  It's much easier to find a 1B that is a well above average hitter than it is to find a catcher, CF or SS.  Therefore, an elite hitter in a premium defensive position provides a team with an advantage.

Freddie Freeman (6/$162 at age 32) and Bruce Harper (13/$330) say hi.

Teams pay for offense, no matter the position. 

 

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Falvey's front office has a long history of developing poor fielders. Quality fielding is not something we're going to see coming up from the minors from this front office. Theoretical versatility is their focus name of the game. What's the last good fielder the Twins have developed under Falvey? Go ahead. Take a minute to think about it.
Rooker?
Larnach?
Julien?
Polanco?
Gordon?
Miranda?
Martin?
Kirilloff?
Jeffers?

Kepler, Sano and Buxton all reached the majors under Terry Ryan. The Twins ditched their only premier fielding prospect in recent years, Noah Miller, a prospect who looks like a perennial gold glover if his bat can play. Brooks Lee has looked good in ultra small sample sizes, but he's also had a couple costly misplays not to mention Brooks Lee came into the Twins' organization well coached and out of college with great defensive instincts to begin with.

Advocating a top tier athlete who plays a premium defensive position be moved to first base seems to border on trolling. If Lewis wants to become an elite 3B, he can. If Lewis wants to become a good SS, he can. He's got the tools. Now he needs decent coaching, effort, and experience.

TLDR-don't bother.

To what would you attribute the vast improvements of Eduard Julien?  Jeffers drafted as a bat first catcher?  You are correct that they value versatility but c'mon man.  Defense is very important to them, like playing Santana when he was hitting a buck o 5.

[Jocko87]

4 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Freddie Freeman (6/$162 at age 32) and Bruce Harper (13/$330) say hi.

Teams pay for offense, no matter the position. 

 

But they do pay more for offense at a premium position.  Harper wasn't a 1B when he signed that contract.  Outfielders do very well if they can hit and Boras knows that.

[Beast]

Obviously, everyone needs to be healthy for anything to matter.  But, if we have a better defender at 3rd in Brooks Lee or Miranda, and at 2nd in Julien or Keaschall, I don’t care what Boras or Lewis want.  No special treatment.  He’s obviously a bit shaky at third.  He could fine tune his technique a but, but he doesn’t have the arm, which isn’t something you can fix.  He’ll never be able to make consistently make those ranging plays to his right fading into foul territory or the squibs that require charging and throwing off balance.

Id like to see him in left, The problem is he can’t run without getting hurt.  That leaves first, which I’m fine with.  The question is, does he continue to hit as well and for as much power as he has in his relatively small MLB sample size?  I don’t think so.  He’s clearly a very good hitter, but I don’t see him continuing his elite HR/AB and slugging numbers.  Still certainly good at 1B as a .275 25 HR type guy, but I wouldn’t call that a “superstar” at 1B (or any position, really, outside of CF/2B) unless he’s providing some top tier defense as well.

Another factor:  Is Correa sticking at shortstop for the remainder of his contract?  With his lower body injuries, is it better to move him off of short at some point down the road?  His skill set would make him one of the better defensive 3B in the game, and his range and ability to play through things may play better there than SS if the foot issues are a constant issue.

Im not opposed to idea mentioned above of a trade.  His value is sky high right now.  Even considering the injury history, maybe higher than what his output would be going forward once you factor in likely regression in power numbers.  I’m not advocating dumping him at a discount, only if the price is right.  Very unlikely, especially if they squeak into the postseason.  But it may be a wise move.  Especially if they’re going to be to cheap to pay him down the road.

[NYCTK]

10 minutes ago, Beast said:

The problem is he can’t run without getting hurt. 

Yep. If we're resigned to this fact, we should trade him. I don't think that's true, but if you do, Royce is simply not a valuable player and he would return way more than he's actually worth. 

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

We need to get past the fallacy that a base hit counts for less or more depending on where you stand on defense. 

I doubt you'd find anyone competent in a major league FO holding to such a mistaken view.

What they might say is that where you stand on defense gives your team more (or less) flexibility in finding more base hits elsewhere on the diamond.

The fallacy, if there is one, is spending $5M on a Carlos Santana and declaring him to be a bargain. I personally aim higher than his current .754 OPS, because you can find first basemen who hit far better than that.

It's much less easy to find someone who plays SS as well as Carlos Correa does and who also hits like a first baseman is expected to.  The jury's still out whether Royce Lewis can be that kind of player too, but if he is, he gives the Twins a chance to add a third masher "who hits like a first baseman," and then actually play him there.  The tragedy is the players they've tried there (like Kirilloff) who haven't performed, and then settling for a $5m bargain.

The hits count the same, but you can get more of them than they currently are.

[USAFChief]

4 minutes ago, ashbury said:

 

The hits count the same, but you can get more of them than they currently are.

With...say...Miranda at 3rd, Correa at SS, and Lewis at 1st?

With Lee backing up SS and 3rd?

With the added benefit of perhaps a little better defense? Possibly better health?

[Fatbat]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Falvey's front office has a long history of developing poor fielders. Quality fielding is not something we're going to see coming up from the minors from this front office. Theoretical versatility is their focus name of the game. What's the last good fielder the Twins have developed under Falvey? Go ahead. Take a minute to think about it.
Rooker?
Larnach?
Julien?
Polanco?
Gordon?
Miranda?
Martin?
Kirilloff?
Jeffers?

Kepler, Sano and Buxton all reached the majors under Terry Ryan. The Twins ditched their only premier fielding prospect in recent years, Noah Miller, a prospect who looks like a perennial gold glover if his bat can play. Brooks Lee has looked good in ultra small sample sizes, but he's also had a couple costly misplays not to mention Brooks Lee came into the Twins' organization well coached and out of college with great defensive instincts to begin with.

Advocating a top tier athlete who plays a premium defensive position be moved to first base seems to border on trolling. If Lewis wants to become an elite 3B, he can. If Lewis wants to become a good SS, he can. He's got the tools. Now he needs decent coaching, effort, and experience.

The FO definitely has a bat first focus. Plenty of guys have the ability to be gold glove but it takes focus.  I still see Noah Miller being a greg gagne type if/when he gets his shot.

Culpepper and Jenkins may come with defensive chops but so far, there has been a lack of defense development/focus.