Reviewing the Jorge Polanco Trade

[Cody Christie]

Last winter, the Twins sent Jorge Polanco to the Seattle Mariners in a deal meant to help both teams. With two months left in the season, can either team be declared the winner of this trade?

Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota’s front office was put into a difficult situation this winter, with ownership requiring the club to drop payroll by $30 million. To make significant additions, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were forced to be creative in finding a trade that would give the team some salary relief. Enter the Seattle Mariners, who were looking for veteran players to reach the playoffs after narrowly missing out on last year’s postseason. 

The Twins sent IF Jorge Polanco to the Mariners for a package that included RHP Anthony DeSclafani, RHP Justin Topa, and prospects Gabriel Gonzalez (OF) and Darren Bowen (RHP). Minnesota had depth at second base and needed pitching depth. This trade represents a strategic pivot for both teams, addressing specific needs while adding depth and potential future stars. Here's an analysis of each side’s gains and losses:

Minnesota Twins Acquisitions
Gabriel Gonzalez (OF)
Pros: Gonzalez is a highly touted prospect with a promising bat and potential for significant impact. His combination of power and speed makes him an intriguing addition to the Twins' system. If he develops as expected, he could be a key piece for the future. From Minnesota’s perspective, he was the key piece in the trade because of his potential long-term value. 

Cons: He is still raw, and a lot can impact a top prospect on their way to the big leagues. He’s struggled in his first season in the Twins organization with a .711 OPS in 53 games at High-A. Most of his power came in the first month of the season when he had 10 of his 18 extra-base hits. His struggles this season have caused him to drop on Twins prospect rankings. 

Justin Topa (RHP)
Pros: Topa was supposed to provide immediate bullpen depth. He’s shown the ability to handle high-pressure situations and could offer stability to the Twins' relief corps. Minnesota needs him to add depth to the bullpen for the stretch run. 

Cons: Unfortunately, Topa suffered a knee injury during spring training that will likely require surgery. However, he has shown an ability to pitch through the injury on his recent rehab and will rejoin the team’s bullpen for the stretch run. His performance has been inconsistent in the past, so the Twins hope he can pitch through his knee issues. 

Darren Bowen (RHP)
Pros: Bowen brings a live arm and the potential to be a future asset, whether he is a starter or reliever. He posted a 13.8 K/9 in his final collegiate season in a relief role. 

Cons: His control issues may lead to some growing pains. Most of his innings have come as a starter during his pro career. He’s started 14 games for Cedar Rapids this season with a 5.90 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and 8.5 K/9.  

Anthony DeSclafani (RHP)
Pros: DeSclafani was supposed to bring a veteran presence to the back of the Twins' rotation.

Cons: DeSclafani has faced injury challenges in the past, which has continued with the Twins. He will never throw a pitch in Minnesota after undergoing season-ending surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his right (pitching) arm. 

Seattle Mariners Trade Acquisitions
Jorge Polanco (IF)
Pros: Polanco adds a proven bat to the Mariners' infield. He’s a switch-hitter with a solid track record of offensive production and can provide stability and experience. His versatility allows him to play multiple infield positions, which adds depth to the Mariners' roster.

Cons: Polanco’s injury history was a concern, and his defensive metrics have been somewhat inconsistent. He has hit .207/.291/.338 (.629) with an 85 OPS+ in 78 games. Polanco has a $12 million team option for next season that likely won’t be picked up by the Mariners. 

For the Minnesota Twins, this trade was a move towards building for the future while also shedding salary. Adding Gonzalez and Bowen provides them with potential long-term assets that could develop into key contributors. Topa gives them bullpen help in his return from the injured list. The Twins are banking on the growth of young talent, while the Mariners are seeking a veteran addition for the near term. Seattle is getting little value from Polanco, so the Twins might be the long-term winners of this trade.

Which team won this trade? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[Karbo]

Do the Twins have any control with Topa after this season?

[Road trip]

 Somehow, both teams could be losers on this trade.

Mariners got a mostly ineffective and injured Polanco, failing to fill their infield hole, while adding a decent sized salary to their payroll.

Twins traded an asset for... well, it is starting to look like nothing.  Maybe Gonzalez or Bowen will be better next year.

Sometimes prospects don't develop, and veteran players always eventually succumb to injuries and/or Father Time.  Looks like that is what has happened here.

[FlyingFinn]

10 minutes ago, Road trip said:

Somehow, both teams could be losers on this trade.

Agreed. The Twins do have the one advantage of creating cap room in the deal. That was used to sign Santana and that has been a good move.

[dxpavelka]

15 minutes ago, Road trip said:

 Somehow, both teams could be losers on this trade.

Mariners got a mostly ineffective and injured Polanco, failing to fill their infield hole, while adding a decent sized salary to their payroll.

Twins traded an asset for... well, it is starting to look like nothing.  Maybe Gonzalez or Bowen will be better next year.

Sometimes prospects don't develop, and veteran players always eventually succumb to injuries and/or Father Time.  Looks like that is what has happened here.

Sometimes prospects take time to develop.

[Colbeh]

22 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Do the Twins have any control with Topa after this season?

They have 2 two more years of control after this season.

[Dman]

My immediate reaction is neither really benefited from that deal this year. Descla and Topa never made it to the regular season. I never was much of a believer in Gonzalaz and while only 20 I just don't see 'elite" bat there, It looks like it would take a ton of work for him to get there IMO.  Bowan hasn't looked very good either.  There are lot's of arms in the system I like better in front and behind him.  Still he could make it as a reliever. but it feels like a long shot from what I have seen.

The other side of me says they still have Topa for a few years and the prospects could have impact years next year.  There is still hope but it is fading IMO.  It feels like a nothing burger of a trade unless as @FlyingFinnsaid you add in the fact the saved money came in handy for other acquisitions this year. I guess the Twins win this one on hope and potential right now, and we'll have to wait see what the future holds to see if it looks better or if this trade is just a wash for both teams.

[Linus]

I don’t really look at trades as a win or a loss. My criteria is did you get good value?  It doesn’t matter that Polo has been bad this year. He was a valuable asset at the time of the trade and the Twins failed miserably to maximize that value. The trade was about dumping salary - Falvey had to trade him and that’s the worst spot to negotiate from. 

[mikelink45]

Neither team won - trades can't be judged in a partial season unless one of the assets just goes off as a star.   Right now we would be saying bench Polanco based on his 204 average and 0.0 WAR, but we also don't know if the trade set him back mentally.  I just can't imagine what I would have done if I had been traded to another state during any of my career jobs.  Baseball is a strange occupation as Curt Flood tried to point out.  

In any other profession we can choose to leave, choose to stay, or choose the other company we would work for.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Road trip said:

 Somehow, both teams could be losers on this trade.

Mariners got a mostly ineffective and injured Polanco, failing to fill their infield hole, while adding a decent sized salary to their payroll.

Twins traded an asset for... well, it is starting to look like nothing.  Maybe Gonzalez or Bowen will be better next year.

Sometimes prospects don't develop, and veteran players always eventually succumb to injuries and/or Father Time.  Looks like that is what has happened here.

Yep. Both teams lost this trade. The Twins got nothing back they needed from moving Polanco and the Mariners got a bad season.

Better scenario for both teams? Twins decline Polanco's option and Seattle acquires a better 2B.

[mnfireman]

The biggest loser in this trade so far is Edouard Julien.

Polanco (and probably Arraez) was traded and the starting 2B job was handed to him. He struggled and the team was forced to demote him to AAA. This in turn forced the team to promote Austin Martin and, following injuries to Correa, Lewis and Farmer, promote Brooks Lee. Both have played well enough to keep Julien in AAA, except for a brief period when Farmer was first hurt. 

When Lee was placed on the IL, Farmer was given the spot, not Julien.

Correa is due back soon and I'm sure Martin will be optioned out. 

The question is: Who get's called up in September when rosters expand as I'm sure the team will call up one position player and one pitcher??

[jorgenswest]

My hope is they don’t double down and tender an offer to Topa in arbitration. He will be 34 and the injury and age will add to the decline. He doesn’t have any space for decline. It is unreasonable to think he will perform anywhere near his lone good major league season.

It doesn’t matter if the trade was a loss for the Mariners. The trade did not improve the 2024 Twins. It won’t improve the 2025 Twins. If they aren’t going to compete for free agents, they need to utilize their trade assets better.

[SaberNerd]

If you have to pick a winner, it is clearly us.  Polanco is worth -0.4 fWAR and the Mariners picked up salary in the trade.  While it is not clear that we will actually gain any MLB production from this trade, we still have 3 players who could in the future, while they will have 0 when they decline Polanco's option.

With our budget and surplus at 2B, if we don't do this trade we probably don't sign Santana and put one of Julien/Polanco at 1B.

[USAFChief]

9 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

My hope is they don’t double down and tender an offer to Topa in arbitration. He will be 34 and the injury and age will add to the decline. He doesn’t have any space for decline. It is unreasonable to think he will perform anywhere near his lone good major league season.

It doesn’t matter if the trade was a loss for the Mariners. The trade did not improve the 2024 Twins. It won’t improve the 2025 Twins. If they aren’t going to compete for free agents, they need to utilize their trade assets better.

Concur on both points.

 

[USAFChief]

3 minutes ago, SaberNerd said:

If you have to pick a winner, it is clearly us.  Polanco is worth -0.4 fWAR and the Mariners picked up salary in the trade.  While it is not clear that we will actually gain any MLB production from this trade, we still have 3 players who could in the future, while they will have 0 when they decline Polanco's option.

With our budget and surplus at 2B, if we don't do this trade we probably don't sign Santana and put one of Julien/Polanco at 1B.

They had to shed the salary of at least one of Polanco or Kepler.

That doesn't mean the front office didn't waste an asset. They got nothing for it. 

[ashbury]

It looks like the Twins weren't offered very much for Polanco at all, and they took this package in order to get anything.  A couple of prospects they could point to at the time, who aren't panning out particularly well so far although there are reasons they could still turn out (for some reason they are sticking with Bowen as a starter, although his future may be in the bullpen, and GG is still very young), an established MLB starter with serious concerns about injury (that proved true), and a flash in the pan reliever who has turned out to suffer the injury bug this season too.  Meanwhile, the other GMs who apparently declined to offer much for Polanco are being proved right, that he was about to enter a decline phase, which the Mariners have suffered through (a good July at bat is being negated quickly by a poor August so far).

Polanco was on the verge of being cut, due to the need for the Twins to make room for better prospects. It was necessary to get something for him if they could. Jorge's one of my favorites, and I appreciated his gameness to try 3B in the post-season last year., but I was concerned about signs of decline.

I wouldn't characterize anyone as "winning" this trade, nor "losing" either. Both teams made logical judgments on five players of varying degrees of low trade value, and so far both teams are looking like they accurately evaluated what they had and tried their best with what they got in return.  Competent professional front offices who made a trade that is destined to be inconsequential, more than likely.

[cheeseheadgophfan]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

My hope is they don’t double down and tender an offer to Topa in arbitration. He will be 34 and the injury and age will add to the decline. He doesn’t have any space for decline. It is unreasonable to think he will perform anywhere near his lone good major league season.

It doesn’t matter if the trade was a loss for the Mariners. The trade did not improve the 2024 Twins. It won’t improve the 2025 Twins. If they aren’t going to compete for free agents, they need to utilize their trade assets better.

I wouldn't mind them offering him arbitration....knee surgery should correct the problem and give him the offseason to rehab.  Arm is solid (unless his most recent set-back is arm related).   Twins will be too cheap to do it, but with our lack of bullpen arms, I'd take a chance.

[DocBauer]

I look at this trade from 2 perspectives:

1} At the time, I didn't like the trade. I felt Polanco was an actual asset, and I felt moving him...or including a decent additional prospect...for a quality rotation arm was the way to go, and FORGO the addition of any other players or prospects. That still remains my opinion as to how Polanco should have been moved at the time, quality, and not quantity in the return.

2} Here, nearing the end of 2024, I will grudgingly give the Twins a "victory" in what is pretty much a no win situation. Polanco will be gone from Seattle, and he'd probably be gone from the Twins as well, had they kept him. Topa is under control, only made $1.25M this season, and will probably only command the same or a slight raise to be kept. At the greatest $ amount, he's going to cost the same as 2 rookie deals. I think that's worth keeping around for another year. My goodness, we signed Jackson from the Jays for this amount. Additionally, while I'm not completely sold on him yet, Gonzalez is sort of a RH 
Eddie Rosario clone with the bat. If they can reign in his aggressive nature even a bit, they might have something there. Bowen feels like a pen arm to me, and that's OK. You need those too.

In short, nobody really won this deal. But I do think the Twins can still get something out of it to help them short term and long term. So if anyone crossed the proverbial finish line in this garbage of a deal, it would be the Twins.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

It looks like the Twins weren't offered very much for Polanco at all, and they took this package in order to get anything.  A couple of prospects they could point to at the time, who aren't panning out particularly well so far although there are reasons they could still turn out (for some reason they are sticking with Bowen as a starter, although his future may be in the bullpen, and GG is still very young), an established MLB starter with serious concerns about injury (that proved true), and a flash in the pan reliever who has turned out to suffer the injury bug this season too.  Meanwhile, the other GMs who apparently declined to offer much for Polanco are being proved right, that he was about to enter a decline phase, which the Mariners have suffered through (a good July at bat is being negated quickly by a poor August so far).

Polanco was on the verge of being cut, due to the need for the Twins to make room for better prospects. It was necessary to get something for him if they could. Jorge's one of my favorites, and I appreciated his gameness to try 3B in the post-season last year., but I was concerned about signs of decline.

I wouldn't characterize anyone as "winning" this trade, nor "losing" either. Both teams made logical judgments on five players of varying degrees of low trade value, and so far both teams are looking like they accurately evaluated what they had and tried their best with what they got in return.  Competent professional front offices who made a trade that is destined to be inconsequential, more than likely.

Tough to say what the Twins could have gotten for Polanco. Falvey has a reputation for waiting out the market instead of being aggressive early. It looked more to me like Falvey overplayed his hand. He's failed to get out from under multiple contracts the Twins weren't expected to keep over the years.

The Twins would have been better off declining their option on Polanco. The fact Falvey wasn't aware of Polanco's value or more aware of his payroll situation before they had to choose whether or not to pick up the option was a failure on his part.

[Doctor Gast]

The trade was doomed from the beginning, it was a bad time to break up the Polanco chemistry for him & the Twins. The Twins broke out of it & Polanco did not, he has never been this bad ever for the Twins. The only way the Twins could possibly come out on top was to flip Gonzales to get a solid SP. Twins don't flip players, they get flipped here.

The longer they hold onto Gonzales the harder it'll be to move him & less they can get for him. IMO Gonzales will not make it to MLB as a Twin.

[gagu]

Judging trades has always been a fun part of being a fan of the game. You get to both pick a winner and a loser and argue the fine details. 

If you judge winning and losing a trade based on whether in hindsight the teams would make the deal again if given the opportunity, the Twins won and the Mariners lost. 

[tony&rodney]

The Twins could have simply not tendered Farmer and Thielbar to save money. Falvey bungled the trade market. Yes, Polanco has had a rough year but then again the Twins could have drafted Mike Trout. The trade is over as is that draft.

What do the Twins have in Topa, Gonazalez, and Bowen? This is a hard guess. Desclafani is done. Topa is likely facing high odds, Bowen is totally a guess, and Gonzalez is at best a future PH/DH. Last week I saw him wait until a fly ball landed before he moved. He didn't lose it. He just waddled over ten feet picked it up and threw it in. The announcer simply said, "Wow". The telecast then showed two replays. Gabriel does have a good arm. Maybe he can pitch.

My main objection to the trade was that the Twins did not improve their team. As for the money? Well, it seemed easy last winter to nontender Farmer ($6.3M) and Thielbar ($3.3M). Then subtract DeSclafani ($4M) and Topa ($1.2M) and keep Polanco = money saved. Always expected a trade but wanted an improvement to the team. The Twins lost this trade, big time.

[jorgenswest]

3 hours ago, cheeseheadgophfan said:

I wouldn't mind them offering him arbitration....knee surgery should correct the problem and give him the offseason to rehab.  Arm is solid (unless his most recent set-back is arm related).   Twins will be too cheap to do it, but with our lack of bullpen arms, I'd take a chance.

My fear is they will believe he is a solution to their bullpen ignoring the unlikelihood that any player at 34 will repeat their performance in their only good season. My fear is they will do because his salary will not be prohibitive.

[USAFChief]

It was a stretch to think Topa would be an asset to depend on THIS year.

Don't compound the error by duplicating it.

With the injury history, I'd guess Topa will have a hard time getting a MLB contract this winter.  I really doubt he gets one from the Twins. 

 

 

 

[Linus]

38 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

It was a stretch to think Topa would be an asset to depend on THIS year.

Don't compound the error by duplicating it.

With the injury history, I'd guess Topa will have a hard time getting a MLB contract this winter.  I really doubt he gets one from the Twins. 

 

 

 

Plus Stewart is not under contract for next year and they would be crazy to sign him to any significant deal so we are back to making a silk purse out of a sows ear where the bullpen is concerned. 

[Danchat]

This has been a lose-lose trade, as both sides have to be very disappointed with what they've received. It is apparent the Twins picked the right time to trade Polanco, but as one who liked the trade initially, that was given Topa would actually pitch and Gonzalez's stock wouldn't immediately plummet (and I was expecting a follow-up trade a la the Garver/IKF trade). And even though the trade freed up some money to spend, that wasn't exactly spent on quality additions.

[Danchat]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

As for the money? Well, it seemed easy last winter to nontender Farmer ($6.3M) and Thielbar ($3.3M). Then subtract DeSclafani ($4M) and Topa ($1.2M) and keep Polanco = money saved. Always expected a trade but wanted an improvement to the team. The Twins lost this trade, big time.

Paying Polanco $12M to be a replacement level player seems like a fairly big hinderance to the team - I think they were right to get what trade value they could out of him. That doesn't justify the blunders they made elsewhere, of course.

[tony&rodney]

4 minutes ago, Danchat said:

Paying Polanco $12M to be a replacement level player seems like a fairly big hinderance to the team - I think they were right to get what trade value they could out of him. That doesn't justify the blunders they made elsewhere, of course.

$10.5M with a $.75 payout if the next option is declined. The Twins received zero value. The trade did not make the 2024 team better. No money was saved that could not have been saved more efficiently: Farmer + Topa + DeSclafani cost more than Polanco.

This is a little bit of a timely article posted on a day when Jorge hits HR #11 and goes 3-5. I wonder if the Twins could have used a 2B today to go 3-5 with a home run? It's all in the past. We should flush all future mention of this trade.

[yeahyabetcha]

7 hours ago, USAFChief said:

They had to shed the salary of at least one of Polanco or Kepler.

That doesn't mean the front office didn't waste an asset. They got nothing for it. 

Was there a better offer?

[Craig Arko]