Kepler

[Parfigliano]

Why is Kepler still a Twin?  Are they really dumb enough to resign him? 

[Mike Sixel]

It makes no sense. If you aren't trying to win, you deal him. And they aren't trying to win. 

[RpR]

12 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Why is Kepler still a Twin?  Are they really dumb enough to resign him? 

Because they need a quality Right Fielder; but haters will hate , so hate on.

[Parfigliano]

8 minutes ago, RpR said:

Because they need a quality Right Fielder; but haters will hate , so hate on.

Not hating puzzled as to why they didnt trade a guy they arent resigning.

[RpR]

He will be BAAAACK.

[SwainZag]

36 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Not hating puzzled as to why they didnt trade a guy they arent resigning.

Because they area in contention and he is one of the better corner OF defenders out there?

How many teams in playoff contention sold off pending free agents?

[NotAboutWinning]

Because they are, and always have been, infatuated with Max.

[dxpavelka]

10 hours ago, RpR said:

Because they need a quality Right Fielder; but haters will hate , so hate on.

NO.  Some random guy(s) on TD says the needed to trade him so it is so.  Do you not understand.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Kepler is a very good right fielder,  he is dependable,  solid in the field and when his bat gets hot is one of the better outfielders in the game.  There is still an outside shot he gets really hot the remainder of the year and the Twins can tag him hoping to get an additional 1st round pick.  With the organizations allergy to increased payroll right now and Kepler just being good not great so far,  this is not the most likely outcome, but still a possibility.  I do wonder . . . Falvey said they had something in the works that effectively fell through.   I am wondering if it did include in some format Kepler going to the Yankees for Cortez.  It was pretty evident Cortez was on the block dependent on them getting Flaherty and that obviously fell through.  What is weird is they went and got another SP and still didn't trade Cortez.   Who knows what was going on there.  

[mnfireman]

Evidently the team listened to offers for Kepler, Duran and Margot. 

I am assuming nobody wanted Margot.

The Dodgers were interested in Duran, but the Twins wanted MLB players not the prospects LA offered.

Either no interest or the right deal didn't materialize for Kepler. I don't blame the FO for not just giving him away.

[MMMordabito]

Why did Cleveland trade for Alex Cobb?  He is on an expiring contract, and they probably aren't interested in resigning him.  They must be stupid as well.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

I don't have any issues keeping Kepler. If he was dealt, it would've been for little in return. IMHO, the Twins are better with Max than they are without him.

[ashbury]

Whether or not Max should have been traded, here's why I didn't expect it to happen: he faces left-handed pitchers, while Wallner and Larnach basically don't.   When one of them starts being shown some trust, then that could be the end for Max here.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Several little birdies told me the Twins were interested in moving Kepler, largely out of necessity because they needed money to acquire other players (and hoped to complete an MLB-for-MLB swap). It didn't work out.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

31 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Evidently the team listened to offers for Kepler, Duran and Ma—

Wait, what?

[Patzky]

36 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Evidently the team listened to offers for Kepler, Duran and Margot. 

I am assuming nobody wanted Margot.

The Dodgers were interested in Duran, but the Twins wanted MLB players not the prospects LA offered.

Either no interest or the right deal didn't materialize for Kepler. I don't blame the FO for not just giving him away.

We may never know but have to trust the braintrust.

 

God that was painful to write..

[Patzky]

11 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Several little birdies told me the Twins were interested in moving Kepler, largely out of necessity because they needed money to acquire other players (and hoped to complete an MLB-for-MLB swap). It didn't work out.

A query.. now that he wasn't traded do you (like me) expect his game to suddenly be rejuvenated?

[nicksaviking]

14 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Several little birdies told me the Twins were interested in moving Kepler, largely out of necessity because they needed money to acquire other players (and hoped to complete an MLB-for-MLB swap). It didn't work out.

But, but, but, Derek Falvey said it wasn't about the money! Don't tell me he was merely covering for his boss!!!!!!

[Vanimal46]

13 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

It makes no sense. If you aren't trying to win, you deal him. And they aren't trying to win. 

Did I miss a memo that as of yesterday the team no longer wants to win? 

[Craig Arko]

15 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Did I miss a memo that as of yesterday the team no longer wants to win? 

Apparently. 

[Mike Sixel]

42 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Did I miss a memo that as of yesterday the team no longer wants to win? 

I think it's clear, from the last several decades and three GMs, that ownership doesn't care about winning. Ymmv, of course.

[DJL44]

13 hours ago, RpR said:

He will be BAAAACK.

He won't be cheap enough for the Twins to sign.

[Road trip]

10 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

He won't be cheap enough for the Twins to sign.

Exactly.

Next year I expect him to end up at a bigger money club.  It's just the nature of the game.  3 years/$45 million or something like that.  Not a chance the Twins can fit that into their payroll plan since they have a bunch of arbitration eligible players who will need increases.

[nicksaviking]

6 minutes ago, Road trip said:

Exactly.

Next year I expect him to end up at a bigger money club.  It's just the nature of the game.  3 years/$45 million or something like that.  Not a chance the Twins can fit that into their payroll plan since they have a bunch of arbitration eligible players who will need increases.

That's more than Lourdes Gurriel got and prior to signing, he had been a significantly more consistent bat than Kepler.

Just for fun, I'll say Kepler gets a 2 year 25M contract with a third year option that includes a 3M buyout.

But he'll be waiting awhile next offseason expecting more. Of course during that time there will be two dozen articles about whether the Twins will or should bring him back.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

13 minutes ago, Road trip said:

Exactly.

Next year I expect him to end up at a bigger money club.  It's just the nature of the game.  3 years/$45 million or something like that.  Not a chance the Twins can fit that into their payroll plan since they have a bunch of arbitration eligible players who will need increases.

Most of their locked-up guys will get raises next year: Correa, Pablo is a big one, Paddack gets a raise, and even the Dobber — who is back — gets a bump up to 3 mil next year 🙂

 

[Obsvr]

There is a .00001% chance Kepler plays for the Twins next year.  It is what it is. 

Ownership hamstrung the FO this year...not much use in whining about it.

Assuming they get to the playoffs, I don't mind their front three...especially in a SSS like the playoffs and there are arms in the minors that could potentially help the BP. 

Not ideal, but thats what we got this year.

[Road trip]

12 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

That's more than Lourdes Gurriel got and prior to signing, he had been a significantly more consistent bat than Kepler.

Just for fun, I'll say Kepler gets a 2 year 25M contract with a third year option that includes a 3M buyout.

But he'll be waiting awhile next offseason expecting more. Of course during that time there will be two dozen articles about whether the Twins will or should bring him back.

Agree, he may find it hard to get a 3 year deal.  It is hard to project Kepler's value, and hard to know how well his skills may age.  It may depend on how much a team will value his defense, which is significantly better than Gurriel's

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. vs. Max Kepler: Value

 

Rk	Player	Age	From	To	G	PA	WAR	WAA	oWAR	dWAR	Rbat	Rdp	Rbaser	Rfield
1	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	24-30	2018	2024	712	2874	12.0	2.4	10.7	-1.1	41	-3	-4	11
2	Max Kepler	22-31	2015	2024	1048	4160	21.1	7.1	15.5	2.9	26	11	2	52

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

He signed a 32 million dollar contract as a poor defensive left fielder.  I don't know,  I think it really come down to his end of the season.   He could push closer to 50 million on a 3 or 4 year deal due to the better defense if he gets hot down the stretch.  

[nicksaviking]

14 minutes ago, Road trip said:

Agree, he may find it hard to get a 3 year deal.  It is hard to project Kepler's value, and hard to know how well his skills may age.  It may depend on how much a team will value his defense, which is significantly better than Gurriel's

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. vs. Max Kepler: Value

 

Rk	Player	Age	From	To	G	PA	WAR	WAA	oWAR	dWAR	Rbat	Rdp	Rbaser	Rfield
1	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	24-30	2018	2024	712	2874	12.0	2.4	10.7	-1.1	41	-3	-4	11
2	Max Kepler	22-31	2015	2024	1048	4160	21.1	7.1	15.5	2.9	26	11	2	52

I haven't seen much evidence that teams are willing to pay for defense these days. Particularly not in the corner outfield. Gurriel and Jorge Soler got multi year deals while Kevin Kiermaier could only get one year and at a much lower amount. Teoscar Hernandez also only got one year, but at 2x the value of Kiermaier.

All the OPSs were within shouting distance of each other too, so it seems like teams are paying for XBH, which is reasonable to me.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins have dangled Max Kepler in trade talks for several years but the cost was always too much for another team to bite. This is apparent because Max is still a Twin.

Kepler is still an outfielder the Twins are counting on to help the team win games and his playing time reflects the organization's thoughts about his worth.

For those who are currently tired of Kepler, or long ago wanted him gone, there is zero chance that Max returns to the Twins for 2025. He has never known another organization or employer, having signed as a 16 year old kid. Max is pretty cosmopolitan, however, and won't struggle to adapt to another team or city. I fully expect Kepler to sign on the West Coast. I don't believe money will be a determining criteria. 

As the lists of Twins records go, it is accurate to say that Max Kepler has had a good run for the Twins and been an important part of their success. He never became Mike Trout, but he has been really solid.