Trevor Larnach Can Unlock a New Level

[Ted Schwerzler]

When the Minnesota Twins broke camp and headed to the regular season, Trevor Larnach was not on the roster. Dealing with turf toe, and having already been optioned to minor league camp, his fate had been determined. Then he was needed, and this time he answered the call.

Image courtesy of © John Froschauer-USA TODAY Sports

After Matt Wallner struggled to get going out of the gate this season, he was sent back to Triple-A St. Paul looking for a reset. That meant a healthy Trevor Larnach was going to get an opportunity, but having previously failed to capitalize on it, expectations were uncertain.

Through his first month in the big leagues during the 2024 season it appeared as though he was going to stick. The results were immediately positive, and Alex Kirilloff had all but flamed out after a strong April. The even better news is that Larnach’s current career-best 110 OPS+ is probably just scratching the surface.

Larnach has never batted .256 for Minnesota previously, and his .440 slugging percentage is reflective of a power stroke that was dreamt on when drafting him out of Oregon State. Having notably been attacked with breaking stuff in years past, Larnach is laying off unhittable pitches and striking out at just an 18% clip. Facing the least amount of fastballs, and most amount of sliders he ever has, pitchers still aren't beating him. While he could afford to add back into his walk rate, when swinging, the former Beaver is looking to do damage.

Some of Larnach’s hard hit rate has slipped, but his 92 mph average exit velocity is a career high. It was because of his ability to drive the baseball that he found himself in the first round of the 2018 Major League Baseball draft in the first place, and he has found it at the highest level. Making some slight changes to his setup and swing, he has begun to unlock a new level.

Owning just a .271 BABIP, Larnach has been incredibly unlucky. Projected values have his batting average at .291, slugging at .511, and wOBA at .361. Each of those is a significant jump for his actual numbers, and continuing to produce the same batted ball outcomes will ultimately turn the tide in his favor.

Rocco Baldelli needs to continue seeing this sort of performance from Larnach. With Wallner having heated up at Triple-A, he could be called upon at any moment. Max Kepler is entrenched as the Twins regular right fielder, and Willi Castro is also capable of cycling in at left field. Larnach has likely distanced himself from Kirilloff, but none of the playing time can be taken for granted.

With eight home runs through 50 games this season, there’s a very straightforward path for him to reach double-digits for the first time in his career. Although he is already 27 years old, Larnach could simply be a late-bloomer coming into his prime, and seeing a 20 or 30 home run season come to fruition in the next season or so would hardly be a shock.

As the Twins look at roster reconfiguration next year, what Larnach is able to prove or substantiate this season will go a long way towards determining his future with the franchise. He hits arbitration for the first time in 2025, and could be an extension candidate if a bigger breakout is seen on the horizon.

The Twins have never gotten more than 79 games in a single season from Larnach. Due to both injury and ineffectiveness, he has routinely been shuttled between the big leagues and the farm. Seeing that storyline break this year, and with just under 80 games yet to go, reaching 115 or so played could have Larnach reaching numbers that he should have always been seen as capable of.

View full article

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

If you get both Larnach and Miranda back on track to be above average or elite hitters,  that would have been a major success story.  Julien took a step back and Kiriloff has floundered,  but those 2 turning it around makes up for it.  Julien appears to be getting closer to what he was last year,  still needs to tweak a few things,  I am still pretty optimistic about what he can provide, worst case scenario a pretty valuable trade chip.  

[blindeke]

Twins are deep!

[Karbo]

Larnach has been fairly clutch with his hits. Last season he was leading the team in RBI early when he got sent down. This year he's crushing pitches so IMO that avg. will go up. One thing this FO has been pretty good at is finding hitters in the draft.

[Brett]

I spent the first month of the year thinking we were super thin in outfield depth. And then everyone started hitting and haven’t stopped (except Kepler).
 

This is so fun to watch that I sometimes forget I have no way to watch them.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

Seems a little late for this article.

April: 

.394/.447/.636 (.363/.421/.666 expected slash), 10.5% BB%, 93.9 mph exit velo, 53.8% hard hit, .451 xwOBA

May: 

.203/.261/.344 (.282/.334/.475 expected slash), 7.2% BB%, 94.3 mph exit velo, 52.0% hard hit, .348 xwOBA

June:

.239/.276/.437 (.266/.301/.471 expected slash), 5.3% BB%, 89.7 mph exit velo, 32.8% hard hit, .328 xwOBA

July

.071/.278/.071 (.038/.252/.041 expected slash), 22.2% BB%, 77.5 mph exit velo, 16.7% hard hit, .180 xwOBA

[RpR]

Larnach , for what ever reason, probably will not be a Twins player next year.

[Brandon]

Larnarch had a decent finish to last season too.  He never really seemed that far from being a solid hitter.  I would think he will have more competition next season with Walner and ERod about ready.  He may be traded by next trade deadline or after next season.  We have several other OF who are working their way up the minors too.

[Devilsadvocate]

11 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Seems a little late for this article.

April: 

.394/.447/.636 (.363/.421/.666 expected slash), 10.5% BB%, 93.9 mph exit velo, 53.8% hard hit, .451 xwOBA

May: 

.203/.261/.344 (.282/.334/.475 expected slash), 7.2% BB%, 94.3 mph exit velo, 52.0% hard hit, .348 xwOBA

June:

.239/.276/.437 (.266/.301/.471 expected slash), 5.3% BB%, 89.7 mph exit velo, 32.8% hard hit, .328 xwOBA

July

.071/.278/.071 (.038/.252/.041 expected slash), 22.2% BB%, 77.5 mph exit velo, 16.7% hard hit, .180 xwOBA

I came here to make this comment, but you've already won.

[jkcarew]

15 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Seems a little late for this article

Yep…that meets the eye test as well. He’s been slipping slightly/slowly as the season has progressed.

[bean5302]

Unfortunately, Larnach's exit velocity, his barrel rate and hard hit rates are combined, average-ish  over the past 150 PA. He had his flash in the pan, and he's been about 20% below league average on the production side of things since early May. A big part of that is a consistent .260-.270 on base percentage. Yeah, not AVG. His OBP has been consistently .260-.270 since early May because he stopped taking walks in order to reduce his K rate.

I don't think Larnach is a 20% below league average hitter for the course of a season, but he's exactly who he was on a production level. League average bat, limited defensive value player. 

On the right team, that adds some value. I think he's probably a 1.5 WAR player over the course of a full year. Not ideal, but not a huge boat anchor. Since Larnach is out of options, his utility to the Twins is getting pretty thin.

[TwinsDr2021]

The bad, they have only let him have 8 at bats against left handed pitchers, the good, most pitchers are right handed.

[Road trip]

I've been sort of pleasantly surprised by Larnach this year, as my expectations for him had become quite low after last year.  I still view him as sort of a high floor/low ceiling kind of player.  There is value in that, but I'll be stunned if he ever becomes a star.  Maybe he has a 25 HR season in him, but more likely is he gives the Twins an adequate or better platoon bat, sort of adequate corner outfield defense, and slightly below average base running.  Kind of sounds like Randy Bush, for those of us who remember the 1980s?  There is value in that kind of player, but I have a hard time penciling him in as a long term every day starter at LF or DH.

[jkcarew]

Not a thorough or convincing use of the data regarding Larnach, IMO.

Batter BABiP does not regress to league averages as do pitchers. They don’t even regress to the player’s average…when that player is making massive adjustments. Like Larnach.

Larnach is swinging earlier in the count than he ever has. And seeming also to be willing to give in more often and try to ‘just’ put the ball in play with two strikes. Undoubtedly, to bring down the massive K rate. Regarding the K rate, it’s a monumental success. Overall, it worked for a while…but an inevitable cost is that you’ll offer at a lot of tough pitches. And pitchers adjust. So, his BB% has tanked, and whatever the averages say about EV and LA, the fact is he’s hitting a ton (for him) of balls on the ground. And it’s pretty clear he isn’t squaring stuff up as frequently as he was earlier in the year. And unless he gets significantly better at deploying this approach (certainly possible), I don’t see the HR rate bumping up much, if at all.

I would expect the BABiP to improve some…but not necessarily get too close to what it’s been in the past.

[DocBauer]

I'm still hoping for the best. And while he's been sliding some of late, the eye test alone has shown a definite change in approach and general improvement. So I'm certainly not going to give up on him just yet.

Long term, however, I don't believe he's a fit. I'm one of those that believe Wallner is going to be pretty good and pretty dangerous. At some point next year, Rodriguez is going to be ready. At least one of Larnach or Kirilloff is going to be pushed out of a spot over the next 9-12 months, if not both. 

I'm hoping one of those two can get it together and become a valuable part of the club. And that could be Larnach still. But agreed he's got to continue to make adjustments. Here's hoping he will. We could still really use his bat the remainder of this season as well. 

[Doctor Gast]

Larnach has been a surprise & a lifesaver. I didn't think he was going to make that adjustment but he did. With (LHHs) Wallner & Julien down due to adjustments, Kiriloff injured now, Kepler streaky & Keirsey stuck in AAA we absolutely need Larnach's LH bat. Once they fix Wallner & Julien, try to keep Kiriloff healthy & free up Keirsey, I'm afraid Larnach could become expendable because he'd be on the bottom of the totem pole & he has some trade value.

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, Road trip said:

I've been sort of pleasantly surprised by Larnach this year, as my expectations for him had become quite low after last year.  I still view him as sort of a high floor/low ceiling kind of player.  There is value in that, but I'll be stunned if he ever becomes a star.  Maybe he has a 25 HR season in him, but more likely is he gives the Twins an adequate or better platoon bat, sort of adequate corner outfield defense, and slightly below average base running.  Kind of sounds like Randy Bush, for those of us who remember the 1980s?  There is value in that kind of player, but I have a hard time penciling him in as a long term every day starter at LF or DH.

Can play every day if needed - definitely a platoon guy v. RH pitching. Decent DH option that can play either corner OF spot. I think he’s a .265 guy with 20 HR power and maybe 20 doubles - with 400 AB’s these are reasonable expectations.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Can play every day if needed - definitely a platoon guy v. RH pitching. Decent DH option that can play either corner OF spot. I think he’s a .265 guy with 20 HR power and maybe 20 doubles - with 400 AB’s these are reasonable expectations.

That'd be a fair step forward in XBH compared to his career averages, and a big step forward in terms of plate appearances as well. Other than his freak 3 triples last year, his line is nearly identical. Projecting 400 AB's (probably 450 PA).
2021 = 18 doubles, 11 HR
2022 = 33 doubles, 13 HR
2023 = 15 doubles, 18 HR
2024 = 15 doubles, 18 HR

His launch angle is 13* this year, and 3 of his 4 seasons have a 13* launch angle. He's typically a flat power stroke, line drive kinda power guy so I wouldn't expect him to ever hit a ton of dingers playing for the Twins at Target Field.
 

[Trov]

He made good adjustment to start year, now league is adjusting to him again, and he needs to adjust to that.  He has shown and ability to hit at this level, but will he be a star, doubtful.  He is the classic DH corner outfield guy that if he is average hitter he is not worth much.  Kepler is average hitter but plays great defense.  Wallner, when hitting like he can, is a plus hitter and has more value than Larnach.  We have several other guys that could fill in for Larnach and not be out much. 

I was happy what he was doing this year overall, but clearly he is fading from his hot start. 

[LambchoP]

Having both Larnach and Wallner hitting well makes it a little easier to whether a trade of Kepler. All three are lefties, although Kepler is a better defender than all of them. Not to mention we also have Keirsey playing real well in AAA who can play all three OF spots. Both Martin and Castro are decent defenders. Plus we have Em Rodriguez coming up... Good depth is a nice problem to have! We got some trade options if we want to go for a pitcher this year, which we should

[RpR]

1 hour ago, LambchoP said:

Having both Larnach and Wallner hitting well makes it a little easier to whether a trade of Kepler. All three are lefties, although Kepler is a better defender than all of them. Not to mention we also have Keirsey playing real well in AAA who can play all three OF spots. Both Martin and Castro are decent defenders. Plus we have Em Rodriguez coming up... Good depth is a nice problem to have! We got some trade options if we want to go for a pitcher this year, which we should

Yes trade Larnach and Wallner.

I am not a rookie rouser but I do hope them bring Kiersey Jr. up for a look see.