One Year From Now: Predicting the 2025 Twins Lineup

[Major League Ready]

Miranda is staking a claim to 1B.  The two big questions are will Lewis or Lee end up at 2B and when will Rodriguez claim a spot.

[RpR]

From these iine-ups you boy must expect hell to freeze over also.

[Schmoeman5]

How about next months line-up? Next years can wait till March..

[arby58]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

We have a great roster of young players in '24. It was a waste to have signed Santana & Margot that took precious playing time from our superior younger players to cement themselves in their starting positions so we could have an even better '25 roster. I would have like to see what Keirsey can do earlier this season & get his feet wet (he's not getting any younger).

The 'Kirilloff wouldn't have gotten hurt and had a great season' is complete conjecture. Wallner's sudden swoon at the beginning of the season and Julien's a bit later is the cautionary tale of relying on young players (you can add Varland to that group).

Meanwhile, Santana plays far better defense, is 1st on the team in walks, 2nd in HRs, 3rd in total bases, and 4th in RBIs. Considering the Twins' offensive prowess of late, he is far from 'a waste.' For that matter, Margot was signed to be a platoon player, and he has performed well against LHP, with an .873 OPS. When used in that role, he is also a valuable contributor.

The future is now - and plenty of 'the kids' have not seized the moment.

[bean5302]

6 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

...With that in mind, I don't think there's enough time (barring injury) to get Severino or Rodriguez enough at bats to be above Nos. 15 and 16 on the list, so I've struck them from your list of 13. Even if they get a few at bats this year, I don't think they would count on them for an Opening Day spot, even if it's because that means they don't want to see someone with no experience (Kiersey/Prato/Helman, etc.) in the 15/16 slots...

I took the title literally. One year from now, rather than opening day :)

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I pretty much agree with you on the starters except Larnach. He's a good player but not a starter (Castro will get the nodd before him) & will get plenty of playing time in the cOF but he is not a steady starter. I still put Kiriloff as a better hitter than Larnach. In the beginning of the season, Kiriloff was hitting great. If we didn't sign Santana & kept Kiriloff at 1B & DH to keep him healthy. Kiriloff wouldn't have gotten hurt & slumped, he'd have had a great season. Plus Miranda would have more playing time.

We have a great roster of young players in '24. It was a waste to have signed Santana & Margot that took precious playing time from our superior younger players to cement themselves in their starting positions so we could have an even better '25 roster. I would have like to see what Keirsey can do earlier this season & get his feet wet (he's not getting any younger).

Emma & Severino are great players but it'll be hard to squeeze them in because of the players ahead of them at cOF & 1B. There is talk about trading Kiriloff, I'd absolutely not do that because his stock is almost worthless & he's still a pretty good hitter, If they don't want to play Julien at 1B then trade him. Can we pick up a good SP deal with MIA? Here's something else for you to think about.  Jeffers's contract will be up soon, will they extend him? With Boras as his agent, I doubt it. So the best time to trade Jeffers is next offseason so we have Vazquez to mentor in a new young elite (LHH) catcher.

Santana is ahead of Pasquantino - Spencer Steer - Matt Chapman & right behind Francisco Lindor - Cody Bellinger - Austin Riley in OPS. He’s second on the Team in HR’s and he’s by far the best Defensive option on the Club at 1B. It’s not May 5th anymore!!

Margot has been hitting over .300 for the past 35 games…..don’t get the attitude regarding these guys…….maybe 8-9 weeks ago but it just isn’t logical at this point.

Big Kirilloff fan here - he’s never been healthy and it’s certainly no other player nor the organization’s issue! It’s 110% on Alex.

If Kiersey or Julien or Wallner or Kirilloff were actually Superior, they’d be in the Show and not traveling the country for the Saints.

Jeffers is under Team control through 2026. He’s not going anywhere.

Larnach is inferior defensively to Castro as an OF (Castro faster & with better arm) but he’s a better left handed hitter than Castro. Castro has much better versatility and obviously can play at an acceptable level from the left side and is much better from the right side.

[bean5302]

5 hours ago, Karbo said:

I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see him get traded, maybe even by the deadline this season.

For what? He's a below league average hitting DH who has to be platooned with no options after this year and he's going to be Arb2 next year. I mean, could the Twins get a PTBNL for him? I suppose some guy on the cusp of a team's top 30.

AFAIC, if the Twins need the roster space, they can DFA and outright Kirilloff. I mean, I suppose there's a chance a team picks him up off waivers, but I don't have a problem watching him walk.

[Schmoeman5]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I pretty much agree with you on the starters except Larnach. He's a good player but not a starter (Castro will get the nodd before him) & will get plenty of playing time in the cOF but he is not a steady starter. I still put Kiriloff as a better hitter than Larnach. In the beginning of the season, Kiriloff was hitting great. If we didn't sign Santana & kept Kiriloff at 1B & DH to keep him healthy. Kiriloff wouldn't have gotten hurt & slumped, he'd have had a great season. Plus Miranda would have more playing time.

We have a great roster of young players in '24. It was a waste to have signed Santana & Margot that took precious playing time from our superior younger players to cement themselves in their starting positions so we could have an even better '25 roster. I would have like to see what Keirsey can do earlier this season & get his feet wet (he's not getting any younger).

Emma & Severino are great players but it'll be hard to squeeze them in because of the players ahead of them at cOF & 1B. There is talk about trading Kiriloff, I'd absolutely not do that because his stock is almost worthless & he's still a pretty good hitter, If they don't want to play Julien at 1B then trade him. Can we pick up a good SP deal with MIA? Here's something else for you to think about.  Jeffers's contract will be up soon, will they extend him? With Boras as his agent, I doubt it. So the best time to trade Jeffers is next offseason so we have Vazquez to mentor in a new young elite (LHH) catcher.

Total nonsense regarding Kirilloff. His wrist surgery was 2 years ago. Putting him in LF got him hurt? I guess if one posts no fact based drivel often enough it'll become the truth.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

29 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

For what? He's a below league average hitting DH who has to be platooned with no options after this year and he's going to be Arb2 next year. I mean, could the Twins get a PTBNL for him? I suppose some guy on the cusp of a team's top 30.

AFAIC, if the Twins need the roster space, they can DFA and outright Kirilloff. I mean, I suppose there's a chance a team picks him up off waivers, but I don't have a problem watching him walk.

The reality is, someone is going to have to go somewhere.  The Kiriloff/Wallner/Larnach group probably doesn't ultimately all have a place to play with the Lewis/Lee/Julien/Castro/(Severino) group holding down the infield.  Add to that mix, potentially Rodriguez and there just isn't a place for everybody.  AND THAT'S OK.  Somebody will completely wash out and somebody will probably be part of a trade package for a pitcher. 

I can't believe I'm saying (writing) this, but depending on Santana's price, he wouldn't be a terrible re-signing for 2025.  After he got going, he has been a nice addition to the team, and certainly brings some veteran leadership to the group of young players.

[stringer bell]

On July 4, 2023, what would the projections have looked like for today? In the long slog that is a major league season, there are ebbs and flows. José Miranda has come back from being irrelevant to a near All-Star. Larnach has seen his stock fall and then rise. A year ago, Kirilloff was a couple weeks away from being Player of the Week. Wallner and Julien were key starters down the stretch and in postseason and now are in the minors. There aren't many sure things.

[stringer bell]

7 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

The reality is, someone is going to have to go somewhere.  The Kiriloff/Wallner/Larnach group probably doesn't ultimately all have a place to play with the Lewis/Lee/Julien/Castro/(Severino) group holding down the infield.  Add to that mix, potentially Rodriguez and there just isn't a place for everybody.  AND THAT'S OK.  Somebody will completely wash out and somebody will probably be part of a trade package for a pitcher. 

I can't believe I'm saying (writing) this, but depending on Santana's price, he wouldn't be a terrible re-signing for 2025.  After he got going, he has been a nice addition to the team, and certainly brings some veteran leadership to the group of young players.

Injuries and ineffectiveness will probably make the decisions for the left handed corner outfielders and first base. Probably the same for the infield. I really don't know if the Twins can count of Lewis given his all-too-frequent injuries. While his post-ACL injuries haven't come from playing in the field, I wonder what they will do to limit his injuries or the risk of them.

[Fatbat]

Looks like zero FA position player signings.  AK is the comeback wild card and Erod is the rookie wild card. Next years roster will look alot like what we have going now minus the 4 vets that will be gone.  
 

Payroll may go down even further if arbitration sides with the FO and no FA are signed.  The core will be older but also under contract.  I anticipate Castro and Lewis may sign deals that buy out their arbitration years.  
 

Its going to be a very consistent lineup of flexibility.  The Pitching will also be very similar but with a possible big name added at some point. 

[cjm0926]

My ideal lineup is pretty similar to yours

C - Jeffers

1B - Miranda

2B - Julien

3B - Lewis

SS - Correa

LF - Larnach

CF - Buxton

RF - Wallner

Bench - Vazquez, Martin, Castro, Kirilloff

SP - Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, Paddack

Bullpen - Duran, Jax, Stewart, Alcala, Staumont, Topa, Okert, Funderburk

 

I think they have a very good ML team without making any deals this offseason. However, I could see them shopping a LH outfielder and maybe a few prospects for a top of the rotation type of arm. There will be solid depth in AAA with Camargo, Kersey, Severino, ERod, Keaschall, etc. and young pitchers like Varland, Festa, Matthews, etc. But I would not be surprised to see them sign a veteran or two. Hopefully they can keep playing some good ball and we can worry about this more in November!?!?

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I took the title literally. One year from now, rather than opening day :)

Gotcha. 

[Bodie]

15 hours ago, Scott51104 said:

" If he DOES, he has a role playing 3 days a week.."

Autocorrect/spellsheck is fun...

Imagine his potential if he doesn't!!!

[Doctor Gast]

7 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Total nonsense regarding Kirilloff. His wrist surgery was 2 years ago. Putting him in LF got him hurt? I guess if one posts no fact based drivel often enough it'll become the truth.

News Flash! Kiriloff had a shoulder injury last season & had surgery on it this last offseason, the Twins announced that they were going to start Kiriloff's throwing & hitting conditioning a month before spring training, after a quiet offseason & limit Kiriloff to 1B/ DH duties.

Kiriloff had a great spring training but the Twins were totally committed to Santana at 1B so to get his bat in the line-up they decided to lift the restrictions & put Kiriloff in the OF. While on the active list the Twins have taken Buxton & Larnach out from the OF  & restrict them to DH duties when they had physical limitations because OF is a physically more demanding position.

This isn't drivel it's called observing with an open mind, putting the pieces together & making a reasonable conclusion. I'm sorry it doesn't into your box.

[MinnInPa]

I don't see Wallner improving on the K's ...that ship has sailed..now Kiersey,  could be a nice option in RF ??? 

[Karbo]

11 hours ago, bean5302 said:

For what? He's a below league average hitting DH who has to be platooned with no options after this year and he's going to be Arb2 next year. I mean, could the Twins get a PTBNL for him? I suppose some guy on the cusp of a team's top 30.

AFAIC, if the Twins need the roster space, they can DFA and outright Kirilloff. I mean, I suppose there's a chance a team picks him up off waivers, but I don't have a problem watching him walk.

There will be teams that want him based on his potential.

[JD-TWINS]

9 hours ago, cjm0926 said:

My ideal lineup is pretty similar to yours

C - Jeffers

1B - Miranda

2B - Julien

3B - Lewis

SS - Correa

LF - Larnach

CF - Buxton

RF - Wallner

Bench - Vazquez, Martin, Castro, Kirilloff

SP - Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, Paddack

Bullpen - Duran, Jax, Stewart, Alcala, Staumont, Topa, Okert, Funderburk

 

I think they have a very good ML team without making any deals this offseason. However, I could see them shopping a LH outfielder and maybe a few prospects for a top of the rotation type of arm. There will be solid depth in AAA with Camargo, Kersey, Severino, ERod, Keaschall, etc. and young pitchers like Varland, Festa, Matthews, etc. But I would not be surprised to see them sign a veteran or two. Hopefully they can keep playing some good ball and we can worry about this more in November!?!?

Brooks Lee gets traded?

[JD-TWINS]

20 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

News Flash! Kiriloff had a shoulder injury last season & had surgery on it this last offseason, the Twins announced that they were going to start Kiriloff's throwing & hitting conditioning a month before spring training, after a quiet offseason & limit Kiriloff to 1B/ DH duties.

Kiriloff had a great spring training but the Twins were totally committed to Santana at 1B so to get his bat in the line-up they decided to lift the restrictions & put Kiriloff in the OF. While on the active list the Twins have taken Buxton & Larnach out from the OF  & restrict them to DH duties when they had physical limitations because OF is a physically more demanding position.

This isn't drivel it's called observing with an open mind, putting the pieces together & making a reasonable conclusion. I'm sorry it doesn't into your box.

To me, it’s not accurate though. The idea was to platoon Kirilloff with Santana at 1B - an ideal Left/Right combination.

1) Larnach was hurt - IL.

2) Castro had to play 3B because Lewis was OUT - IL.

3) The anticipated every day LF, Matt Wallner hit .080 and hasn’t seen MLB since April 20.

Enter OUR ONLY OPTION, Alex Kirilloff in LF. There was no affinity for Santana at 1B it was “how do we field a line-up”…….,,Brooks Lee could have filled in and allowed Castro to play LF……but he too was on IL.

Another version of observing and making a reasonable conclusion.

I like Kirilloff - still hope he’s able to be a big contributor with his bat. I do not think he was mishandled, certainly with no malice. The fact that he got sent down and then advised mgmt. of an injury he’d been concealing (bad back, not shoulder) is on him, IMO.

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Looks like zero FA position player signings.  AK is the comeback wild card and Erod is the rookie wild card. Next years roster will look alot like what we have going now minus the 4 vets that will be gone.  
 

Payroll may go down even further if arbitration sides with the FO and no FA are signed.  The core will be older but also under contract.  I anticipate Castro and Lewis may sign deals that buy out their arbitration years.  
 

Its going to be a very consistent lineup of flexibility.  The Pitching will also be very similar but with a possible big name added at some point. 

All correct!!

Hoping for the pitching add!

Curious about signing Lewis up - how that might look w/o much playing history due to his injuries. Risk for both sides to be weighed.

Castro sure seems to have earned some security.

[Riverbrian]

11 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

To me, it’s not accurate though. The idea was to platoon Kirilloff with Santana at 1B - an ideal Left/Right combination.

Only the front office knows for sure but I believe that Santana was brought in for full time duty against both left and right handers. 2 are catchers, 6 are platooned... that leaves 5 players had to be chosen for duty against both left hander and right handed starting pitchers. 

Probably:

Julien/Farmer - 2B

Kirilloff/Margot - DH

Wallner/Castro - LF

This is my assumption so FWIW of course. 

If it wasn't Santana for full time duty then it was Castro. He would be the only other option.

I don't believe Castro was the choice. First off... if it's Castro where does he play full time? Remember this is when the season started with everyone healthy. If the plan was to set up Kirilloff and Santana as the 1B platoon. 

Possibly: 

Kirilloff/Santana - 1B

Julien/Farmer - 2B

Wallner/Margot - LF

The option position full time position is now DH for Castro. We could shift Wallner/Margot to DH platoon and give Castro LF full time? Or we could just rotate players through the DH spot moving Castro to fill in every vacated spot and doing that every day. I just don't see any of that likely coming out of spring training.  

Here's what we know: (Coming out of spring training healthy) 

1. Jeffers and Vazquez were going to be the catcher rotation and they both hit right handed 

2. Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner were not going to be in the lineup against left handed starters. 

3. Margot and Farmer (Castro) were not going to be starting against right handed starters. 

4. Correa, Buxton, Lewis, Kepler were going to be playing against both hands. 

That's 11 players roles accounted for out of the 13 that headed north out of Florida. The other two left to be accounted for are the switch hitters Santana and Castro. One of them has to go into group 3 and one of them has to go into group 4 and both are candidates.

I believe it was Santana to play every day because:

1. Castro was an obvious candidate to move around to get extra AB's against Right Handers because he could fill in wherever needed when Buxton and others needed maintenance days. 

2. Santana had the better overall offensive stats in 2023. 

Of course... we will never know... only the front office knows because everything changed 2 AB's into the season when Royce Lewis went down. Which then required both Santana and Castro go into group 4. 

The only clues we have and they are not rock solid clues was provided by the opening day lineup against left handed starter Cole Ragans. 

1. Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner did not start so group 2 seems to be accurate. 

2. Margot started at DH, Farmer started at 2B, Castro started in LF and Santana started at 1B. 

3. Santana batted 5th while the bottom of the order was Farmer 7th, Castro 8th and Margot 9th. 

4. Game two on March 30th against Right Handed starter. Lewis is out. Martin is called up. Kepler fouled a ball of his foot game one and is not in the lineup against a RH. Kirilloff starts in LF, Julien starts at 2B and Wallner starts in RF. Castro is now at 3B and Santana starts at 1B. 

5. Farmer, Margot and Martin are on the bench. Martin is used as a pinch runner while Farmer and Margot are used as pinch hitters for our left handed problem children. 

 6. Game three against a right handed starter. Same lineup as game two. 

With Lewis getting hurt early. We don't know who was chosen to be the every day player coming out of spring training between Santana and Castro. I'm going with Santana. 

As the season as progressed and performance decisions have changed the off-season plan. Larnach replaced Wallner in group two, Kepler replaced Julien in group two and it seems like Martin has replaced Kirilloff in Group two.

Meanwhile Castro and Santana lead the team in AB's by a fairly large margin. Injuries and poor performance have certainly caused an adjustment on the fly which have certainly messed up the carefully laid plans of the off-season. 

 

 

 

[TwinsDr2021]

The big issue I see with is and a bunch of others is the Twins don't let Larnach, AK, and Wallner hit against lefties, so having all three on the team means you needs three right handed hitters to back them up. Larnach (190 at bats, 8 against lefties), AK(178 at bats, 8 against lefties), Wallner (33 at bats, 1 against lefties and in 46 at bats last year his OPS was .481)

Sure they could do Miranda/AK at first, but at this point there is no reason to have Miranda sit against righties (.966 OPS),

IMO one or two of those guys are likely not with the Twins organization next year.

[Schmoeman5]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

News Flash! Kiriloff had a shoulder injury last season & had surgery on it this last offseason, the Twins announced that they were going to start Kiriloff's throwing & hitting conditioning a month before spring training, after a quiet offseason & limit Kiriloff to 1B/ DH duties.

Kiriloff had a great spring training but the Twins were totally committed to Santana at 1B so to get his bat in the line-up they decided to lift the restrictions & put Kiriloff in the OF. While on the active list the Twins have taken Buxton & Larnach out from the OF  & restrict them to DH duties when they had physical limitations because OF is a physically more demanding position.

This isn't drivel it's called observing with an open mind, putting the pieces together & making a reasonable conclusion. I'm sorry it doesn't into your box.

News Flash. When you said the same thing yesterday. The analogy you used was about his wrist. You said "let's break Santana's wrist and then put him in the outfield when he isn't 100%" Now you mentioned Kirilloff's shoulder surgery.  So which is it that attributed to the back and nerve issues that he's dealing with now? In his vulnerable state.  And you also mentioned how he was "raking" so it didn't affect him at first. But then it did.

[Riverbrian]

Back to the subject of this article:  

I'm assuming more data to be collected between now and October and I also assume that data will play a role in off-season decisions. 

I have no expectation that major free agents will be coming so next years roster but there are a lot of left handed hitters for consideration. This means that a couple of cheap Margot and Farmer type free agents will need to take a couple of the roster spots of players being penciled into slots.  

 

[Omgbenji]

What everyone seems to be forgetting or ignoring is that Emmanuel Rodriquez, while intriguing, is absolutely completely unreliable from a health standpoint. He hasn't played in weeks and hasn't consistently played all season. He needs at-bats in the minors but he can't get them because he's always on the shelf. He's pretty much a non-factor.

[Trov]

Pretty easy to predict based on current roster and no injuries setting in.  Personally, I see 1st base as a possible move by Twins in offseason again.  No one on our current roster are considered strong defenders there, and unless they rake like crazy having average offense and bad defense is not good combo at 1st. 

In addition, so many of these guys are pushing each other could get traded in off-season, or at deadline. 

[Patzky]

22 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Don't see a trade or free agent signing with the projected payroll for next year. That 5th starter has to come from this group - Festa, Varland, Paddack, Matthews, Morris, Lewis, Raya. That's a lot of possibilities which is another reason they won't bring any starting pitcher in from the outside.

Hopeful that another year removed from surgery that Paddack will be serviceable as a 5 starter or better. This assumes no adds at all.. I hope that isn't the case because there is never enough pitching. 

 

Jonesimg for Fedde or Pivetty or Blackburn as affordable options.

[tony&rodney]

On 7/4/2024 at 10:07 AM, TopGunn#22 said:

Something needs to be done to patch that hole this season and for the near future until Festa or Matthews or anyone else in AA has a little more polish than they do right now.  A trade?  A free agent signing?  A trade or FA signing that brings a heavy expense to the payroll just isn't going to happen with a Pohlad owned team.  That much is a certainty.  Can this front office come up with a miraculous move to put the Twins in a better position??    

 

The coming offseason looks to be quite similar to last winter. The Twins have some players that other teams may be interested in acquiring for their team. The Twins will be limited (only if one wants to spend more than $135 million) in spending. The Twins have eyes for a few young controllable starting pitchers.

Falvey had opportunities last winter and will again. The names being asked about will remain similar to last offseason as well, although the interest and value levels on said players will have gone up or down for various reasons. Who (among players with MLB time) would be on those "interest" lists? Just guessing, but pretty much every player who still has controllable years. Think about the perceived value of Wallner, Julien, and Varland (plus possibly Kirilloff) last winter. You can then add Jeffers, Miranda, Lee, Lewis, Larnach, Martin, Woods Richardson, and Festa as well as a few relievers to the top prospects to get possible choices for Falvey. Obviously, the Twins do not need to trade anyone, which is the track Falvey chose last offseason. Perhaps one or two players could be on the move though. 

This feels like an exercise sure to frustrate, however, because Falvey swings small and leaves fans wishing the Pohlads would bale him out by signing big name free agents. So let us hope Joe P. decides to add Max Fried and Juan Soto. Hmmm.

[cjm0926]

6 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Brooks Lee gets traded?

Good call out, I knew I was forgetting someone. Forgot to include the DH slot, which is where Julien would go, and Lee would take over 2B