One Year From Now: Predicting the 2025 Twins Lineup

[Cody Christie]

The Twins have veteran pieces and a young core, but how will that change by next season? Here’s a look at what the team’s lineup will look like, midway through 2025.

Image courtesy of Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Predicting the future in baseball can be an exercise in futility. Last season, it looked like José Miranda was out of the team’s long-term plans, as he struggled with a shoulder injury. Now, he’s reestablished himself as a crucial piece of the team’s lineup. Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien had tremendous rookie seasons but have struggled in 2024. So, let’s look into the crystal ball and see who fits into next season’s roster.

Catcher
Current: Ryan Jeffers
One Year from Now: Jeffers
Jeffers started the year on a tear, but has recently cooled down. Christian Vázquez has been one of baseball’s worst hitters this season, and the Twins still have him under contract through next year. His defense continues to be among the league’s best, and that’s the biggest reason the Twins have kept him on the roster. Back-Up Plan: Vázquez, Jair Camargo

First Base
Current: Carlos Santana
One Year from Now: Julien
Minnesota added Santana on a one-year deal, and it seems unlikely the veteran will be back next season, even with his improved offensive performance. The Twins have other players to take over at first base, and Julien might be the best option. He initially struggled after being demoted to Triple-A, but his bat has started to turn around. He’s started to see some time at first base in the minors, but his bat must produce. Back-Up Plan: Miranda, Alex Kirilloff

Second Base
Current: Willi Castro
One Year from Now: Brooks Lee
Julien was supposed to be the team’s everyday second baseman. However, his struggles have forced them to pursue a different plan. Castro has filled in nicely, and will have a role as a utility player again next season. Lee ranks as the organization’s second-best prospect and is mashing the ball at Triple-A. He needs a defensive home in the big leagues, and second base is his most likely spot. Back-Up Plan: Castro, Julien, Austin Martin

Third Base
Current: Royce Lewis
One Year from Now: Lewis
The Twins have been using Lewis less regularly at third base in recent days, while he’s been in an offensive slump. Obviously, there are also perpetual, unrelenting injury concerns to take into account. He’s still the team’s best option for the long term, though, even with some defensive struggles. Both of his significant injuries this year showed up while running the baes, so playing the hot corner doesn't seem to be the culprit in his physical issues.

Miranda has played more regularly than expected at the hot corner, but is likely better suited for a DH/1B role. Lee also has the defensive chops to take over third base if Lewis continues to struggle, or to settle in there if the team elects to bring Lewis back as the DH later this summer. Back-Up Plan: Lee, Miranda

Shortstop
Current: Carlos Correa
One Year from Now: Correa
Correa is having his best season in a Twins uniform and has a chance to represent the team at the All-Star Game. Outside of Willi Castro, he’s been the team’s first-half MVP and provided the club with the value they expected when he signed for at least $200 million. Lee has continued to play shortstop in the minors, and could fill in if Correa missed time. For now, the Twins hope Correa is on the field and continues to produce like one of the AL’s best players. Back-Up Plan: Lee, Castro

Left Field
Current: Trevor Larnach
One Year from Now: Larnach
Larnach seemed to be outside the team’s plans entering the season, but that has changed quickly. His improved approach against off-speed pitches has made him a dangerous hitter. He’s producing like the player the Twins hoped he’d be when they drafted him in the first round. His spot isn’t guaranteed for next season, so he must continue to prove that his 2024 performance is not a fluke. Back-Up Plan: Matt Wallner, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Castro, Martin

Center Field
Current: Byron Buxton
One Year from Now: Buxton
Few predicted that Buxton would be able to roam center field again, especially at an elite level. He’s proven his detractors wrong again this season, producing at a very high level. The Twins will continue to have backup plans for Buxton when he misses time. Rodríguez has regularly played center field during his professional career and has the skill set to stick at the position. Castro and Martin have filled in during the 2024 campaign and can be backup options next season. 
Back-Up Plan: Rodríguez, Castro, Martin, DaShawn Keirsey

Right Field
Current: Max Kepler
One Year from Now: Wallner
Kepler’s time in a Twins uniform is likely over at season’s end, leaving the team searching for a right fielder for the first time in over a decade. Wallner has been on a hot streak at Triple-A and has an arm that can be a weapon in right field. Minnesota will need to give him a chance in the second half to prove his offensive adjustments can stick at baseball’s highest level. Back-Up Plan: Larnach, Rodríguez, Martin

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Who will be in the Twins’ lineup midway through the 2025 campaign? What unexpected change is coming, and not captured here? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Karbo]

My guess is pretty close to yours.

1B- Juian, Miranda

2B-Lee, Martin

3B- Lewis, Miranda

SS- Correa, Lee, Castro

LF- Castro, Martin

CF-Buxton, Martin

RF-Larnach, Wallner

C-Jeffers, Vazquez

So you have Castro, Buxton, Larnach, Martin, Wallner for OFers, Miranda, Julian, Lee, Correa, Lewis, Jeffers and Vazquez IFers. 12 position players.

[The Mad King]

DH - Miranda 

[IndianaTwin]

With a penchant for rotating through the DH and with where things are now, I’d list Miranda at 1B rather than Julien. 

[IndianaTwin]

3 hours ago, Karbo said:

My guess is pretty close to yours.

1B- Juian, Miranda

2B-Lee, Martin

3B- Lewis, Miranda

SS- Correa, Lee, Castro

LF- Castro, Martin

CF-Buxton, Martin

RF-Larnach, Wallner

C-Jeffers, Vazquez

So you have Castro, Buxton, Larnach, Martin, Wallner for OFers, Miranda, Julian, Lee, Correa, Lewis, Jeffers and Vazquez IFers. 12 position players.

This isn’t the purpose of the article, but when you add a rotation of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR and Paddack, backed up by Varland, Festa, et. al, followed by Duran, Jax, etc., they already have a pretty impressive floor.

This assumes letting Farmer, Santana, Margot and Kepler go, all of which seems likely. What would that make the payroll? 

[TopGunn#22]

Not much to argue or dispute what you guys have laid out here.  One of the more interesting 2025 roster decisions will be how Julien fits into everything with Brooks Lee fully on board.  There is no doubt in my mind that Julien will be back up sometime this season and will produce at a desired level.  That will lay the groundwork for how things will stack up in 2025.

We have young talent emerging offensively.  That often entails some ups and downs as that young talent further matures.  The timeline is different for everyone.  Lewis showed that when he's healthy, he's an impact bat.  He just has to stay healthy.  Julien and Wallner were pretty darn good last year but endured terrible starts to their 2024 season.  Brooks Lee had a nice debut last night and he will continue to show promise while probably struggling a bit at times.  Jeffers was an All Star who suddenly hit a wall.  Can he regain his swing??  I like what I've seen from Larnach this season.  I hope he can keep building on it.  Miranda has bounced back emphatically.  

The biggest disappointment for me is Alex Kirilloff.  He has such a nice swing, but he's running out of runway.  Especially when you see the improvement from Miranda and Larnach.  And there is still Emmanuel Rodriguez on the way and a rebounding Wallner.  And as always Walker Jenkins lurks for the possibly not too distant future.  When he's ready, he will shove almost anyone else to the side.

What we certainly have right now though is a rotation that is one SP short.  Lopez is looking much better lately as the staff Ace.  Ryan is showing is first half last year was not a fluke.  He's showing Ace potential.  Ober and SWR look like viable pieces of a rotation.  But that final spot is a black hole and with the struggles of Festa and Varland and the next best options just getting their feet wet in AA there is no immediate or even next year candidate available in our farm system.

Something needs to be done to patch that hole this season and for the near future until Festa or Matthews or anyone else in AA has a little more polish than they do right now.  A trade?  A free agent signing?  A trade or FA signing that brings a heavy expense to the payroll just isn't going to happen with a Pohlad owned team.  That much is a certainty.  Can this front office come up with a miraculous move to put the Twins in a better position??    

 

[LambchoP]

Hopefully they can find a trade partner for Kepler and get some kind of return for him, rather than just losing him for nothing. We can replace him well enough this year with Martin, Wallner or even Keirsey who can play all three OF positions.

[Five minute major]

This would be a very fun offense to watch.   I personally would like them sign a more proven right fielder in the offseason.  Back up catcher is the only other area I think they need to address but won't with Vazquez contract and at least he provides some D.

 

[Major League Ready]

I would not bet on who is playing 1B.  The rest seems pretty likely but 1B could go a lot of ways.  I don't think Julien is the most likely.  Miranda or Kirilloff would be my guess.  The dark horse could be Yunior Severino who has been crushing it the last 6 weeks.  His stat line for the last 27 games is .412 / .521 / .701 for a 1.222. OPS.

Now try to figure out how the bench works out.  There are a lot of possible scenarios.

[Eric Blonigen]

I think this is pretty close. There are just a couple things that stand out to me.
 

From a payroll standpoint, next year Pablo starts to get expensive, and since it sounds like this year’s payroll may be the new normal, I assume they do what they can to cut expenses. I assume they do not extend the QO to Kepler, and I assume they try to get out from the last year of Vasquez’ contract, and will likely be willing to give away a prospect or two to even out the salary someone else will take on.

So, Camargo likely gets the call as backup catcher. I also think they will sign at least one veteran to challenge the young guys, similar to Santana. I think it’s more likely it’s an outfielder than an infielder. The question will be if it’s a Manny Margot type, or if it’s a $10M pillow deal for someone that has upside.

It’ll be interesting to see since there are so many somewhat-proven, cost-controlled hitters on the team. Maybe I’m wrong on signing a veteran hitter, and maybe all dollars will go to signing another pitcher.

[Patzky]

There's a lot of continuity there from 24! Hardly ever works out as planned. I'll play though and add a name or two I'd like.

 

C Jeffers

1b Miranda

2b Lee

SS Correa

3b Lewis

LF Larnach

CF Buxton

RF Rodriguez 

DH Julien 

Also.. Vazquez, Wallner, Castro, Keirsey

SP Ryan, Lopez, Ober, Woods Richardson, Fedde (or Blackburn) 

RP Jax Duran Stewart Varland Staumont .. would Matthews be ready for a limited trial?

[SD happy]

I might be one of few, but, I haven’t given up on Kiriloff. He’s just too good of a hitter to overlook. Like Buxton and Lewis, Kiriloff needs one season of good health to show what he can do. The big question is,  is that possible?

[wabene]

It's obviously too early to say, but I will not be surprised if Lee turns out to be clearly a better defensive 3rd baseman than Lewis. I'm expecting it. Lewis also has not shown he can be relied upon. If Lee performs and stays up in the bigs this is what I would do. 

1st. Miranda everyday starter.

2nd. Lewis everyday starter (if available) Julien if not. 

SS. Carlos everyday. 

3rd. Lee everyday.

Catcher. Jeffers starter.

Left. Larnach mostly against rightys but some leftys.

Center. Buxton (if available) Martin if not.

Right. Wallner mostly against rightys.

DH in rotation.

Castro backs up left, center, 3rd, 2nd and SS.

Martin backs up the outfield. If Buxton is down Keirsey backs up center.

If Lewis is healthy, Julien gets at bats backing up 1st, 2nd and DHing.

Backup catcher Vazquez or Carmago if they can somehow unload Vazquez.

The 13th man? Kirilloff has a chance, but is limited defensively for this kind of role.

Lee and Castro are the primary SS backups.

There will be additions.

[FlyingFinn]

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Something needs to be done to patch that hole this season and for the near future until Festa or Matthews or anyone else in AA has a little more polish than they do right now.  A trade?  A free agent signing?

Don't see a trade or free agent signing with the projected payroll for next year. That 5th starter has to come from this group - Festa, Varland, Paddack, Matthews, Morris, Lewis, Raya. That's a lot of possibilities which is another reason they won't bring any starting pitcher in from the outside.

[mark sills]

23 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Don't see a trade or free agent signing with the projected payroll for next year. That 5th starter has to come from this group - Festa, Varland, Paddack, Matthews, Morris, Lewis, Raya. That's a lot of possibilities which is another reason they won't bring any starting pitcher in from the outside.

Should move Mathews and Morris to triple a now. I think the number five is one of them.

[Major League Ready]

17 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

#5 SP most likely will be a scrap heap guy as always.  A Montas, Manaea type maybe?

I think it's Paddack until Festa or Matthews take his spot.

[IndianaTwin]

28 minutes ago, wabene said:

It's obviously to early to say, but I will not be surprised if Lee turns out to be clearly a better defensive 3rd baseman than Lewis. I'm expecting it. Lewis also has not shown he can be relied upon. ...

I was having the same thought while listening to last night. If Lewis is back by even Aug. 1, that's a 20-25 game audition. These things have a way of working themselves out, so I don't get too anxious about this, and it's a good problem to have, but it does create an interesting situation with Lewis and Lee if Lee shows himself better defensively. The assumption has been that one of them will transition to 2B, but Lee didn't play there a ton and Lewis played none (or virtually none). Teams tend to give the incumbent his job back when returning from injury, but I'm not sure it's that clear cut.  

[wabene]

1 minute ago, IndianaTwin said:

I was having the same thought while listening to last night. If Lewis is back by even Aug. 1, that's a 20-25 game audition. These things have a way of working themselves out, so I don't get too anxious about this, and it's a good problem to have, but it does create an interesting situation with Lewis and Lee if Lee shows himself better defensively. The assumption has been that one of them will transition to 2B, but Lee didn't play there a ton and Lewis played none (or virtually none). Teams tend to give the incumbent his job back when returning from injury, but I'm not sure it's that clear cut.  

Yeah I think the only argument against putting Lewis at second is injury risk. With the new rules this is minimized. Lee's arm will prove to be more reliable and accurate than Lewis'.

[IndianaTwin]

35 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Don't see a trade or free agent signing with the projected payroll for next year. That 5th starter has to come from this group - Festa, Varland, Paddack, Matthews, Morris, Lewis, Raya. That's a lot of possibilities which is another reason they won't bring any starting pitcher in from the outside.

Paddack is under contract. Assuming his inconsistency this year has been the remnants of TJS recovery (and I'm of that mind), he's in the top 5. 

[IndianaTwin]

4 minutes ago, wabene said:

Yeah I think the only argument against putting Lewis at second is injury risk. With the new rules this is minimized. Lee's arm will prove to be more reliable and accurate than Lewis'.

At the very least, I anticipate an active winter on TD discussing permutations...

[DocBauer]

The 13 man position player portion of the roster is pretty easy. A couple days ago a few of us shared similar thoughts and the OP is pretty much dead on with my opinion.

Generally speaking, the Twins have a primary 10 man lineup since Castro can and will play everywhere and almost every day to rest someone. That leaves the backup C, Martin at 3 spots, and Kirilloff as a 1B/OF/DH to round out the roster. 

I don't wish injury on anyone, but I'm really hoping Camargo will be brought up in September of this year to rest Jeffers/Vazquez a little and get some actual ML time to see what he can do. But I believe money, defense, and veteran status has Vazquez on the roster. 

Kirilloff is a wild card. Now that his wrist is OK, can he finally stop getting hurt in other ways? If he dies, he has a role playing 3 days a week...occasionally more...at 3 corner spots, DH, and as a valuable PH. He's still got an option left if the Twins don't use it this season. But time might be running out. 

Martin might be part of the "bench" as well, but that's a pretty loose term on this team. He plays 3 spots, can be a quality RH PH, as well as a good PR. Plenty of opportunity for him as well, considering the Twins like to use the whole roster.

SOMEONE is always going to get hurt. It's normal. One of Castro's strengths is roster flexibility due to his versatility. That means someone like Keirsey can be brought up even if an INF goes on the IL. This roster has the luxury of being fluid.

At some point, Emmanuel Rodriguez is going to be part of the roster, I just don't expect it to happen opening day, and maybe not for a month or two.

While this roster lacks veteran experience at a few spots, I really like it.

[bean5302]

Kirilloff is going to be non-tendered at the end of the year so there's no worry about seeing him in the lineup next year.

Larnach isn't ideal as a planned every day starter, though he's not a black hole at probably a 1.0-1.5 WAR kinda guy. While the article talks about him improving his approach vs. breaking/offspeed stuff, as the sample size grows, it looks a lot more like he's only changed his approach rather than improving the results. Out of options for next year, Larnach could be traded. Emmanuel Rodriguez probably has home as a starter in the outfield this time next year.

I can only guess the article expects Jose Miranda to be the DH since Julien is the starting 1B. I'm not sure about Julien's future outlook as he's so redundant at this point. I'd be a little surprised if the Twins sold low on him before the trade deadline, but I don't think Julien has a good path back to regular playing time right now having been soundly leapfrogged by Lee so if Julien rebounds and finds his power stroke, I could see the Twins trading him.

Constructing a roster with what the Twins have in their system right now:
C - Jeffers
1B - Miranda
2B - Lee
3B - Lewis
SS - Correa
LF - Rodriguez
CF - Buxton
RF - Wallner
DH - Severino
BC - Vazquez
UI - Castro
UO - Larnach 
UO - Martin
 

[IndianaTwin]

15 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

...Constructing a roster with what the Twins have in their system right now:
C - Jeffers
1B - Miranda
2B - Lee
3B - Lewis
SS - Correa
LF - Rodriguez
CF - Buxton
RF - Wallner
DH - Severino
BC - Vazquez
UI - Castro
UO - Larnach 
UO - Martin

Interesting exercise, including how it plays into the trade deadline.

Over the last couple years, we've noted how the Twins have started the season with six starting pitchers with at least some experience, recognizing that it is almost a certainty that someone will be hurt. That meant sliding Ober into the rotation early last year and Varland this year (replacing DeSclafini). That's been a good plan.

Similarly, I've observed that last year and this year, they began with about 16 "legitimate" hitters. By "legitimate," I mean with some level of MLB experience. They are reluctant to have a true rookie above about No. 15 on their roster. I think that's been a good plan. The presence of Margot and Farmer, for example, meant they weren't forced to keep a Wallner and Julien on the MLB roster when they struggled. I think shooting for 16 hitters is a good plan as well.

With that in mind, I don't think there's enough time (barring injury) to get Severino or Rodriguez enough at bats to be above Nos. 15 and 16 on the list, so I've struck them from your list of 13. Even if they get a few at bats this year, I don't think they would count on them for an Opening Day spot, even if it's because that means they don't want to see someone with no experience (Kiersey/Prato/Helman, etc.) in the 15/16 slots.

That leaves 11 on your list. I agree with your implied assumption that Farmer, Kepler, Santana and Margot won't be back.

If we slot Severino and Rodriguez at Nos. 15 and 16, that means spots 12-14 are left. In that context, I think there is a place for Julien, if he continues to hit and gets at least some time back for the Twins.

I agree that Kirilloff is a non-tender candidate. Either way, there is still one or two roster spots open. To that end, good as this overall list looks, I think there will still be at least one Farmer/MAT/Solano/Margot-type "veteran presence" added to the roster.

(Note: I'm not saying this is the way they should do it -- I'm just thinking this is the way they will do it.)

[Scott51104]

" If he DOES, he has a role playing 3 days a week.."

[Karbo]

4 hours ago, SD happy said:

I might be one of few, but, I haven’t given up on Kiriloff. He’s just too good of a hitter to overlook. Like Buxton and Lewis, Kiriloff needs one season of good health to show what he can do. The big question is,  is that possible?

I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see him get traded, maybe even by the deadline this season.

[Jim wyllie]

With his injury history the seeds are already being planted for lewis to move to first base where his defense will be great and lee will stick at third and as for second base austin martin with miranda dhing and giving rest at 1st and 3rd.  Julien is a ?mark right now and wallner might be traded

[JD-TWINS]

My bestest line-up or best 13 guys, maybe not practical with today’s offensive numbers:

1) I don’t ever see Julien playing 1B for Twins

2) Emma may be up by July next year but I’m’ penciling in how they break camp - after that performance & injuries may blow things

3) Biggest wrench is I see Julien rebounding & this somebody has to flex, ……..Royce.

Kirilloff/Miranda - 1B

Julien/Castro/Martin - 2B

Correa/Lee - SS

Lee/Lewis/Miranda - 3B

Jeffers/Vazquez - C

Lewis/Larnach - LF

Buxton/Martin/Castro - CF

Wallner/Castro

LH pitcher:

Lee - 3B…Castro - RF…Correa - SS…Lewis - LF…Miranda - 1B…Jeffers - C…Buxton - CF… Martin - 2B…DH - ????

RH pitcher:

Julien - 2B…Lee - 3B…Larnach - DH…Lewis - LF…Kirilloff - 1B…Correa - SS…Wallner - RF…Martin - CF…Vazquez - C

Seems no DH for a lefty pitcher & displacing Miranda v. RH pitcher……,,may shove Kirilloff out of the mix?

I like Julien - Lee - Lewis all hitting & seems LF fits Lewis power profile and may be easiest in his body?

[arby58]

6 hours ago, LambchoP said:

Hopefully they can find a trade partner for Kepler and get some kind of return for him, rather than just losing him for nothing. We can replace him well enough this year with Martin, Wallner or even Keirsey who can play all three OF positions.

Disagree - the Twins are in the play-off hunt, and Kepler is a positive contributor. You play out the season with him on the team and thank him for his contributions over the years. 'Don't want to lose him for nothing' is for rebuilding teams, not play-off teams.

[Doctor Gast]

I pretty much agree with you on the starters except Larnach. He's a good player but not a starter (Castro will get the nodd before him) & will get plenty of playing time in the cOF but he is not a steady starter. I still put Kiriloff as a better hitter than Larnach. In the beginning of the season, Kiriloff was hitting great. If we didn't sign Santana & kept Kiriloff at 1B & DH to keep him healthy. Kiriloff wouldn't have gotten hurt & slumped, he'd have had a great season. Plus Miranda would have more playing time.

We have a great roster of young players in '24. It was a waste to have signed Santana & Margot that took precious playing time from our superior younger players to cement themselves in their starting positions so we could have an even better '25 roster. I would have like to see what Keirsey can do earlier this season & get his feet wet (he's not getting any younger).

Emma & Severino are great players but it'll be hard to squeeze them in because of the players ahead of them at cOF & 1B. There is talk about trading Kiriloff, I'd absolutely not do that because his stock is almost worthless & he's still a pretty good hitter, If they don't want to play Julien at 1B then trade him. Can we pick up a good SP deal with MIA? Here's something else for you to think about.  Jeffers's contract will be up soon, will they extend him? With Boras as his agent, I doubt it. So the best time to trade Jeffers is next offseason so we have Vazquez to mentor in a new young elite (LHH) catcher.

[mikelink45]

Those seem like safe predictions  -  who are the players that might rise and change the formula?