One Way or Another, It’s Time for the Twins to Change Their Marco Raya Plan

[Cody Christie]

Marco Raya has been one of the Twins’ top pitching prospects since the team selected him in the 2020 MLB Draft. So, why does the team continue to handle him like a long reliever?

 

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge

Developing starting pitching is one of the most complex and valuable jobs for a farm system. It can be one of the most significant factors that separate the perennial contenders from those looking to supplement their roster with pitching from outside the organization. The Twins hired Derek Falvey to run the team’s baseball operations department because of his track record of developing young pitching in Cleveland. Minnesota has started to see positive results on the drafting and development side with younger pitchers. 

The current Twins regime has shown an ability to target pitchers in the mid-to-late rounds of the MLB Draft and develop them into legitimate pitching prospects. David Festa, Zebby Matthews, and Cory Lewis were each drafted in the 8th round or later, and each ranks among Twins Daily’s top 20 prospects in the organization. Marco Raya is another prospect who ranks highly among the organization’s top pitching prospects, but the way the Twins are handling him is starting to be challenging to understand.

The Twins drafted Raya in the fourth round of the 2020 MLB Draft, from a Texas high school. At the time of the draft, Minnesota’s scouts praised him for his “strong mechanics” and “projectability.” Even though he is smaller in stature (listed at 6-foot-1), there was a belief that he could add more strength to his frame. The Twins have spoken highly of him since he was drafted, but it's been tough to understand his usage as a professional. Minnesota has aggressively promoted him, while also being very cautious with his workload. So, is there a method to their madness?

2022 Recap: 65 IP (3.42 IP/G) 
Highest Pitch Count: 79 pitches
A shoulder strain kept Raya off the mound during the 2021 season, so the club was forced to wait until 2022 for him to make his professional debut. The Twins were cautious with him, and rightfully so, since he was returning from injury. He averaged fewer than 3.5 innings per game, and there were four games in which he pitched five or more innings. Still, it was hard to ignore the overall results. Raya posted a 3.05 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and 10.5 K/9 while being three years younger than the average age of the competition in the Florida State League. 

2023 Recap: 62 2/3 IP (2.85 IP/G)
Highest Pitch Count: 54 pitches
The Twins were even more cautious with Raya In his second professional season. He never made an appearance past the fourth inning, and topped out at 54 pitches in a game. Raya began the year in Cedar Rapids, posting a 2.94 ERA with a 0.92 WHIP and 10.4 K/9. Minnesota also continued to be aggressive with him, by promoting him to Double-A before his 21st birthday. He struggled with the initial transition to Wichita, allowing 15 earned runs in his first 12 innings. From there, he settled in and allowed one earned run on eight hits over his last 17 innings. With Wichita, he was the Texas League’s youngest pitcher and faced older batters in 88.3% of his plate appearances last season.

2024 Recap: 37 2/3 IP (3.14 IP/G)
Highest Pitch Count: 60 pitches
Minnesota sent Raya back to Double-A to begin the 2024 season, which is logical, since he struggled there in 2023 and is young for the level. Raya started the season well, with a 3.38 ERA over 18 2/3 innings pitched in his first six starts. His next six starts included more struggles, with 13 earned runs allowed in 19 innings pitched (6.16 ERA). Batters have hit .261/.369/.377 against him, with 22 strikeouts and 13 walks during his six-game slide. The Twins have increased his innings pitched per game, but he has yet to pitch past the fifth inning. 

Raya remains an intriguing prospect, because his stuff has improved since he joined the Twins organization. In fact, Baseball Prospectus thought so highly of him that they ranked him as the 53rd-best prospect entering the 2023 season. His command has improved, as he can land all his pitches for strikes. His fastball hits the mid-90s, with movement up in the zone. His slider has elite spin rates and can be used as a put-away pitch. Raya also rounds out his repertoire with a curveball and a changeup that can give batters a different look. 

At some point, the Twins must take the training wheels off for Raya, to see if he can handle a starter's workload. He must prove effective when going through a lineup more than twice. Raya is on pace to make his big-league debut by 2025, but the Twins would need a long reliever ready to piggyback with him when he starts. Minnesota must take the gloves off with Raya and see what he can do with a more significant workload. The only alternative would be to convert him to a reliever, outright, which might lead to an earlier debut--but would permanently cap his value somewhat lower than that of a mid-rotation starter.

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Will the Twins’ approach work for Raya? Is it time for him to see a higher workload? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Mike Sixel]

I agree with this article. I'd move him to the bullpen and get him in MN next year.....if not this.

Griffin Jax is making a lot more money being a RP in the majors than a AAAA starter....

[Rod Carews Birthday]

As much as I would like to see Raya piling up the innings pitched and getting stronger, there is likely a reason that the Twins are handling him the way that they are.  I'm pretty certain they know quite a bit more about his pitching, his physical condition, and his potential than I do.   It is arguably working, so I'm willing to be patient and see what happens.  Unfortunately, patience can be a little lacking around here.

[FlyingFinn]

Many on TD were saying this spring that the Twins hold back all of their young pitchers too much, mostly saying Raya and Festa. It's not true. Turns out Festa was only held back in April and probably to save some innings and pitches for later in the year, when he would hopefully be with the Twins. The Twins treat Raya different than any Twins MiLB pitcher I know of. If Raya succeeds, you will see a lot more treated like him. It's interesting.

[BH67]

So what to do? Ask Derek Falvey. We'll no longer be shrouded in mystery.

[jimbo92107]

Unless Marco Raya has a history of arm trouble ("good mechanics" sounds just the opposite), then why not raise his pitch count? If his arm starts to fail, then back off and consider his role as a reliever. This doesn't seem like a difficult choice. 

[mikelink45]

completely agree - you do not get stronger by watching someone else lift weights.

[Dman]

Honestly he hasn't pitched that well this year IMO.  For a guy with plus pitches he walks too many and gives up too many runs.  He's had to throw a lot of pitches some innings so his pitch counts get high early.  He's got things he needs to work on and control is certainly one of them.

His K rate is really good for the level 27% with almost an 11/K9.  That's hard to do at that level, but there are things that need to be figured out for him to get to more elite status.  

If it were me I'd keep him around 60 pitches until he starts dominating more.  There's no rush as he is still very young for the level.  If he can stop the long innings of 20 or more pitches then sure leave him out there longer. 

I trust the Twins have a plan and understand his recovery process etc and will add more innings when it makes sense.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Cleveland traded for Corey Kluber, Cliff Lee, Trevor Bauer, some of the greats they drafted, but most were not. Falvey wasn’t hired to be a pitching coach, he was hired to be an executive….

sorry to derail…

Agreed with Mike, bring the kid up as a reliever

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

As much as I would like to see Raya piling up the innings pitched and getting stronger, there is likely a reason that the Twins are handling him the way that they are.  I'm pretty certain they know quite a bit more about his pitching, his physical condition, and his potential than I do.   It is arguably working, so I'm willing to be patient and see what happens.  Unfortunately, patience can be a little lacking around here.

The longer he doesn't get stretched out, the more concerned I am about him as a prospect for this exact reason. They know something, and they may not like it.

He's outside the box of their typical 6'3 221lb college arm obviously but the usage is significantly different than anyone in the organization. They have other guys his size and age.

A huge part of my concern is the lack of arm issues throughout their system. There are the guys like Preillip and Canterino who were obvious risks but they seem to have a pretty good knack for not missing multiple years with their pitching prospects, trades notwithstanding.

If they have a good track record of prospects not getting injured, and treating a specific prospect with kid gloves, it's reason to be concerned. I would not be surprised if they sell high at the deadline.

We know they don't like high school pitchers, even if they take a shot on one every now and then.

[IndianaTwin]

He threw 62.2 innings last year and is on pace for about 75 this year, a decent percentage increase.

If he’s effective and holding up, they can still add to the inning count by letting him go longer in August and September.
 

The inning projection also assumes a minor league year-end of Sept. 15. If he’s earned it and he’s needed, they can add to the count with MLB bullpen innings. 

They have five starters under contract for 2025, midseason and offseason acquisition options and a couple other minor leaguers ahead of him. I’m not too worried about the number of pitches he’s throwing in mid-2024 when he isn’t likely to see the majors until mid-2025. Keep him healthy. 

[SaberNerd]

Looking at Charlee Soto, he has thrown 68 and 72 pitches in his last 2 games.  This makes me think this is more of a Raya-specific concern than a general strategy for developing HS pitchers.  I've significantly downgraded him as a prospect for this reason

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

He threw 62.2 innings last year and is on pace for about 75 this year, a decent percentage increase...

Going from 62 to 75 is totally insignificant. At that pace, Raya wouldn't be ready as a full time starter for about 9 more years.

[wabene]

The unique usage of Raya can only mean there is a unique reason. He is the only one handled this way. There has to be a method to the madness. Why is it such a secret?

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, jimbo92107 said:

Unless Marco Raya has a history of arm trouble ("good mechanics" sounds just the opposite), then why not raise his pitch count? If his arm starts to fail, then back off and consider his role as a reliever. This doesn't seem like a difficult choice. 

He has a history of shoulder trouble.
Drafted in 2020, obviously didn't play.
Shoulder strain wiped out his entire 2021 season.
Shoulder strain returned mid 2022 season.
He's been limited to a pitch count of about 40-60 since.

The level of kid gloves the Twins are using with Raya is pretty concerning. The only conclusion I'm able to come to is his performance during games drops off fast. I think moving Raya to the bullpen and shortening the length of his appearances is warranted.

[twinstalker]

I've never understood the fascination with Raya, much less the usage.  He doesn't appear to do well in his short stints, which gives me little faith in him even as a reliever.  I would never have had this guy in my top 20.  I think that requires doing something first, unless maybe you're granted one free ticket due to being a first-round pick.

The response variable we're ultimately looking at is getting results in MLB.  It would seem a required antecedent of that would be getting results somewhere prior to MLB.

[Fezig]

I'm sure glad I grew up in a time that had pitchers consistently throw over 7 innings and 100 pitches. I wonder how much Verlander's career would have been different with Falvey running the organizations he pitched in.

[Doctor Wu]

10 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

but the usage is significantly different than anyone in the organization. They have other guys his size and age.

For me, that remains the biggest puzzle. Why is Raya seemingly the only one that is being handled in this manner? No recent injury issues, so this innings limit still seems a bit TOO cautious. But, as others have posted, we just have to trust the powers that be, who are paid to know more about these things than us lowly fans. Still, it would be nice to get more clarity on why he isn't being allowed to pitch deeper into games at this point in his career. 

[Doctor Wu]

7 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The level of kid gloves the Twins are using with Raya is pretty concerning. The only conclusion I'm able to come to is his performance during games drops off fast. I think moving Raya to the bullpen and shortening the length of his appearances is warranted.

That may be what happens. Someone else mentioned Griffin Jax as an example of a starter turned into an effective relief pitcher, so that may be what happens with Raya. At this rate, I can't imagine him turning into an MLB starter for a long time. 

[Otaknam]

The Twins should give an explanation of how they are handling Raya. Are there injury concerns or some other issue that they are keeping quiet. Is Raya’s smaller stature an issue? Why not let the fans know why they are so cautious. 

[terrydactyls]

8 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

The Twins should give an explanation of how they are handling Raya. Are there injury concerns or some other issue that they are keeping quiet. Is Raya’s smaller stature an issue? Why not let the fans know why they are so cautious. 

Could the secrecy be a prelude to a mid-season trade?

[Doctor Gast]

 I am 100% behind how the Twins develop their pitchers. IMO they are tired of getting pitchers like Canterino & Prielipp shot even before they start pitching in the organization. To achieve a top pitching prospect they need to start from the ground up & manage correctly their young arms to maximize their health & outcomes. Raya is slight and has shown signs of future injuries. Therefore the limiting of his pitches yet still advancing him through the system. Twins are slowly increasing his innings, Raya has some problems with control so I wouldn't recommend increasing his pitch count either until he rectifies this.  When the time for him to be added to the 40-man due to either need or time & still hasn't reached the adequate pitch count of a SP then bring him up by all means as an opener or RP. I would not abandon the plan. Raya is too valuable.

They are following the same plan with Soto, He'll get more innings because he's bigger & stronger than Raya. But the idea of managing his young arm is the same.

[saviking]

Maybe HE needs to be the long reliever ..

[jmlease1]

12 hours ago, SaberNerd said:

Looking at Charlee Soto, he has thrown 68 and 72 pitches in his last 2 games.  This makes me think this is more of a Raya-specific concern than a general strategy for developing HS pitchers.  I've significantly downgraded him as a prospect for this reason

I think that's fair. I'm leaning that way as well, because we're talking about AA at this point. It's not like we're talking about a guy still down in Ft. Myers. There's only 1 stop left in the minors and if he's not going to ever get a starter's workload even at AA, then maybe it's time to shift him to relief. He turns 22 in about a month, so it's not like he's a kid any longer either, and they're going to have to make a 40-man decision on him soon too.

Must be something in the medicals with him, which would be a bummer. But harder and harder to see him as a starting pitching prospect.

[bean5302]

Agreed with the popular opinion that Raya and Soto are not similarly handled. It's quite common to see high school draft picks restrained in pitch count and innings their first full season in the minors. Definitely in regard to the start of the season and build up.

Raya is in his 3rd full year after the draft. Considering he's years removed from his reported shoulder issues, the pitch count restriction is bizarre. If Raya's velo and command/control is still weakening before pitch 60, I don't see him ever building up at this point. If his velo and command/control is good, it doesn't seem reasonable not to let him pitch longer. He has never faced a batter third time through the order (never more than 18 TBF) in 2023-2024. That's not a legitimate starter prospect. 

[Trov]

They are treating Raya very similar to how they treated Duran, but even more restrictions. I fully agree they either need to let him be a normal starter and pitch into 5th going through rotation 2 plus times, or just transition him fully to a pen roll and move him up that way. 

I can get wanting to build up a guy slowly while you make adjustments to things, but three years of this is crazy if you really want him to be a starter. 

[LambchoP]

I think there's really no need to rush his development with his young age and our starting pitching depth ahead of him on the pecking order. I think they slowly up his pitch counts throughout the year. He may eventually have to be a long reliever , bullpen guy, but until then starters are much more valuable. I think if the Twins target a starter at the deadline this year Raya would be a pitcher to deal, along with Severino who's positionally blocked at the major league level but is absolutely smashing at St Paul. Severino, Raya and some other AA prospect might get us some much needed pitching help  I'd throw Kepler in that mix too since we're losing him at the end of the year anyways. Wallner can take his spot easily.