4 Twins Prospects Show How the MLB Draft Builds a Pitching Pipeline

Can we skip a Pablo start and give Festa a spot start?  While we are at it, DFA Jackson and bring up a kid that isn’t on the 40 man. 

Ricky Castro, although a small sample size in low A, is showing promise to add to the pipeline. High draft picks seems to be volatile & takes a long time to develop. I'm content in the way they are able to find opportunities in the lower draft & develop them into potential low to medium-tier SPs. Then find a Lopez or a Ryan on the market & turn them into something more.

The organizational shift under this front office has clearly shown an ability to get college arms and push them to the next level.  This is now getting set up similar to Cleveland, which really was the goal.  To continue to have 1 to 2 guys each year that will hopefully step in when needed to make some good starts.  It allows you to not overpay for pitchers in FA or via trades.  There are many guys that could they have avoided injuries may have had larger impacts too by this point.  

Projecting pitching is one of the hardest things to do.  Some of the "best" arms in drafts that go early in drafts never make majors or fizzle out quickly in majors where pitchers drafted much later turn into good MLB pitchers. Many times it is injury and lack of growth of secondary pitches that lead to it. 

I do think there should be a rule though, never draft a Rice pitcher.  That team will burn up the kids arm by end of college and they always need many surgeries when they get out of college. 

I think they should skip the next one or two Pablo starts and give Festa a shot. They also need to trim the fat on our bullpen. Get rid of Theilbar and Jackson. Funderburk could be a short term solution for Theilbar, but I think we should Definitely look for some SP and bullpen help at the deadline.

1 hour ago, 4twinsJA said:

Love the headline, sure to elicit more comments about "pipeline" than 4 pitchers mentioned. 

You have Festa and Varland in AAA.    In AA you have Raya, Lewis, Matthews and Morris that look like legit prospects at this point and high prospect in Raya (that is not considering Nowlin or Ohl who have had ups and downs but potential) that were all picked in the draft and other than Morris and Raya (both picked in the 4th) after the 7th round.  In A+  you have Culpeper and Langenberg and Lee currently.  Those 3 are a tad fringy but close.  Improve a couple things,  Langenberg and Lee are still in first full year,  they have shot to continue the Varland and Festa path.  This also does not include Priellip or Canterino who may have the best talent of any pitcher other than Festa in the top 3 leagues.  

A ball is continuing of taking a variety of pitchers and continuing to succeed with them.  Bengard and Bragg have been revelations so far as a relievers. with both sporting ERA's of 1.    Hall is really beginning to turn a corner, and I still have very high expectations for him.  Dunn has great stuff, is improving his control.  You have a few other players, but will wait to see if they really start to shine.  Then you have Soto.  Putting him in A ball is a big jump, he has struggled, however,  is starting to show signs of turning a corner,  throwing more strikes.  I think will have a good stretch here for the rest of the summer.  I know I am optimistic but he has talent and there is great coaching down there.  I think they will really start to figure it out.  For 18 years old, its damn impressive.  You then have Questad who is even a bigger question mark (truly a lottery pick,  will know more in a year or two if it was a good gamble or not).  

No offense that is a damn fine pipeline.  Best we have had top to bottom in the last 20 years.  Now no one at this point is viewed as a #1 pitcher.  However,  it is a ton of options.  Several will flame out,  but it is creating more than enough depth if there is underperformance or injury at the big league level or any of the affiliates.  Someone is ready to step up.   

You also have another draft to continue to stock pile depth.  

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Ricky Castro, although a small sample size in low A, is showing promise to add to the pipeline. High draft picks seems to be volatile & takes a long time to develop. I'm content in the way they are able to find opportunities in the lower draft & develop them into potential low to medium-tier SPs. Then find a Lopez or a Ryan on the market & turn them into something more.

Definitely SSS, and not found in the draft but is definitely catching my eye.  Between him, McCusker, and Eeles,  Twins are finding some very good talent in the independent leagues.  

39 minutes ago, Dman said:

The four guys from the 2022 draft all seem to have very good control with Matthews the best of the bunch.  Morris has hung right with him though and seems to be getting better and better.  Lewis looking a little shaky coming back and pretty sure he will adjust, but AA is a tough level.  Culpepper has been hurt and hasn't made it to AA but he has the stuff to get there if he can keep his arm healthy.

I actually don't remember and didn't look it up to see if MacLeod is part of this group or if injuries made his organizational start late. He has had some ups and downs but more ups lately. He missed so much time so I'm also keeping my eye on him as a late bloomer. 

And Nowlin isn't from 2022 but I am really excited about him lately. He has had some great games with very few walks (his bugaboo).

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Before all the back patting, MiLB performances don't win MLB championships.

Festa is literally the only prospect mentioned who's actually looked potentially good as a starter in AAA, maybe projectable into an MLB rotation. He's had some big hiccups with control, but there's been plenty to be impressed with in his progress this year.

Varland's 2 sparkly appearances recently come with more loud contact, and that's some of the same stuff he struggled with previously as a starter. I don't think he'll be serviceable in an MLB rotation.

Eh,  that pipeline has already given us Ober.  Winder and Varland have been fringe starters so far.  I still expect Varland to figure it out,  even if it is as a reliever.  Even though we traded for SWR,  we have developed him in the minors, and he has been a very solid starter for us this year.  So for 2/5ths of the current rotation,  plus Varland and Festa as depth,  that is pretty damn impressive.   Considering the team traded away most of your 2021 draft.   Most of our depth is from 2022 and 2023 drafts.  

15 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Yeah, Bailey Ober, #4 starter. Same as Terry Ryan (Jose Berrios) or Bill Smith (Kyle Gibson) produced in less drafting years, with Falvey now overseeing his 8th MLB draft. Falvey's been here quite a long time now.

Winder hasn't been a rotation candidate in 2 years and Varland hasn't been serviceable in the rotation over his 103 innings with a 5.30 ERA. 5.30 ERA with opponents slugging .512 off him is not fringe, it's unplayable. He has looked potentially good out of the bullpen, though.

Late though it is, Simeon Woods-Richardson is shaping up nicely, but that's not "draft" related, and that's what this article is about. Drafting for a pipeline.

Falvey's results on the Minnesota Twins roster from drafting pitchers has been very poor as of right now. That said, it does look like after years of trying, he may finally have built himself a pipeline that reaches all the way to the big show. Guys like Balazovic and Winder were sure fire bets, too, though.

 

To be fair 2020 draft was effectively shuttered.  We did get Raya.  The 2021 draft we traded away,  we did get 2 years of Sonny gray,  and a late 1st round draft pick (although would have rather kept Gray all things considered).  We have had 2 1st round draft picks,  Petty traded away and Soto from last year.  Most of our depth in the minors and our 2 starter ahem Bailey Ober has been a solid #3 starter for us over the last couple of years.  5+ WAR.  If we can get similar production from SWR that would be solid.  

This has allowed us to make a lot of picks for hitters.  An infield of Lewis, Correa, and Lee is bonkers.  If we can figure out 1st base and solidify the outfield you will have a hell of a lineup.  As to pitching,  keep drafting and keep developing what they have done has worked.  They cannabalized the 2021 draft which helped our team for 2 years with Gray.  Just look at our starting rotation from 2020 to now.  Dobnak, Maeda, Berrios, Hill, Pineda, Odorizzi.    Now we have Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR and Paddack.  Everyone locked in for next year as well.  Last year we were top 6 staff.  Currently 21,  for staff ERA,  I do expect us to move up with the remainder of the year.  I expect Lopez and Paddack to better down the stretch.  

Argue what you want to about the management,  drafting shouldn't be 1 of the main things you go after.   They have kept the major league team competitive, while completely rebuilding the minor leagues.  Every single minor league team has been competitive for the last 2 years.  Tells you all you need to know about the minor league system.  A lot of depth, a lot of good coaching and some very good hitting and pitching prospects to throw in.   

16 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

You're extending the topic to an overall review of the franchise operated by Falvey.

A tad bit,  but already gone well in depth on the pitching pipeline,  if you can't see a solid pipeline built on picks drafted on a couple 4th round picks,  several in the 7-10 range and several more in the teens,  I really don't know what to say.  They have a built up a solid pipeline of #2 to #4 pitchers that should give the big leagues 1 to 2 solid options each year for the foreseeable future.  Some will flame out or get injured,  but its the number of prospects that is impressive.  At the beginning of the season, people questioned the depth,  even with Varland struggling,  SWR and now Festa look like very solid options.   If Festa can be a #2 or #3,  You would have Ober, SWR, and Festa developed in the minors and 2 of them drafted.   No offense that is pretty solid.   

This is the biggest urban myth of all. This FO has 8 years at the helm. Their drafting and development of pitchers consists of Ober and Jax. That is hardly an impressive resume. I’m hopeful on some of the minor leaguers but they mean nothing until they are getting outs in the bigs. 

1 minute ago, Linus said:

This is the biggest urban myth of all. This FO has 8 years at the helm. Their drafting and development of pitchers consists of Ober and Jax. That is hardly an impressive resume. I’m hopeful on some of the minor leaguers but they mean nothing until they are getting outs in the bigs. 

Who have they spend big draft capital on.  That they have any type of pipeline is impressive.  The fact they were left in with much either is something you have to acknowledge as well,  As well as Covid messing things up in the middle.  I am not saying its perfect,  and there have been a few duds, but for the most part,  the production they have gotten,  and the pipeline developed with the total lack of high end draft picks is pretty damn impressive.  

Morris and Culpepper are really part of this group, too, though Culpepper is likely out for a long, long time, and Morris needs more development in some respects.

8 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Who have they spend big draft capital on.  That they have any type of pipeline is impressive.  The fact they were left in with much either is something you have to acknowledge as well,  As well as Covid messing things up in the middle.  I am not saying its perfect,  and there have been a few duds, but for the most part,  the production they have gotten,  and the pipeline developed with the total lack of high end draft picks is pretty damn impressive.  

What?  They are deciding who they spend their draft picks on. The pipeline has produced two pitchers in 8 years. You can make all the excuses you want. That is not a good track record. 

2 hours ago, h2oface said:

7 drafts and there are none they have drafted that have become anything like a pipeline, or even contributed significantly for the Twins, at all, except Ober, and Ober is proving to be a question mark. And when they do pick a pitcher higher in the draft with the most potential, they trade them away. I will believe it when it actually happens. And not just hopefuls still in the minors. Trading isn't drafting. And if you trade them and they mature into someone we all wish we had (Gil), it is not of their doing. It just makes it worse, because they weren't clever enough to keep them. 7 drafts isn't "overnight". 

17 hours ago, Linus said:

This is the biggest urban myth of all. This FO has 8 years at the helm. Their drafting and development of pitchers consists of Ober and Jax. That is hardly an impressive resume. I’m hopeful on some of the minor leaguers but they mean nothing until they are getting outs in the bigs. 

17 hours ago, bean5302 said:

In terms of drafting pipeline, Griffin Jax was drafted by Terry Ryan's front office in 2016 @Linus.

I love all the qualifyers that are occurring to try to prove your thesis.  You have to give the front office and coaches some ownership of developing previous draft picks is point #1.  It takes 3-4 year to develop a prospect to be ready for the majors and in some cases more than that. So yelling about 7-8 years - really 7 drafts and with the middle one being Covid, you only have 3 drafts you would expect any major league talent from.    2ndly if the team is not investing much high draft capital into pitching you would not expect to have a ton of #1 pitchers and a huge pipeline.  Lastly if you trade a drafted player for a current asset you most certainly get to use the value accrued.  They are giving up future value for current value.  Now lets look at the drafts and I am going to break into 3 groupings. 

2017-2019 Draft - 

In 2017     2nd - Leach  3rd- Enlow  10 Faucher 12 Ober (5.3 War)

2018         No pitcher picked til 5th - 5th Sands (-.2 War),  7 Winder (.3 War)   15 Funderburk (.5 War)

219            2nd Canterino (#13 prospect) ,  6th Gipson Long - traded for 1/2 season of Fulmer (.5 War),  8th Legumina - traded for Farmer (1.4 War)   15 Varland (.4 War)  

In total you ended  with   8.2 War for the Twins from pitching prospects.  Considering only 2 - 2nd round picks and 1 3rd round pick and you have ended up with a #3 starter,  a couple #5 starters in Winder and Varland and a useable bullpen piece in Sands.     For the Capital invested,  that is a very good return.  This is the Twins strategy,  to take a lot of long shots and see if can develop,  and find pitching from trades.  While at the same time,  really beginning to build a pipeline.   Canterino is still a wild card,  when healthy he can be a valuable piece for the organization,  will he ever be healthy is the question. 

2020 draft -  -  4th round - Raya  #6 Prospect  

5 rounds  really hurt the twins who like to find players deep in the draft.  Even still you have Raya who has talent and ability. For a 4th round pick,  really adds to the pipeline

2021-2023

2021 -   1st Petty (traded for Gray 7.8 WAR runner up Cy Young and 2024 #33 pick),  2nd round Hajjar (traded) - 3rd Povich (traded - currently SP for Orioles) , #13 Festa (#5 prospect), #14 Ohl, #19 Nowlin

2022 -   2nd Priellip (#16),  4th round Morris (#17),  8th round Matthews (#19), 9th round Lewis (#12), 13th round Culpepper (#8)   

Other than Priellip,  all you can say is holy ****.  That is a ton of talent from one draft for minimum drafted capital.  Priellip like Canterino needs to stay healthy.  The Twins really liked his stuff when he was able to pitch.  

2023 draft - still a work in progress but a lot of arms and talent.  and Lee and Langenberg already in A+ ball.  Their biggest pick for pitching is Soto.  

In Summary the pitching picks of the last 3 drafts have given us the following - 7.8 War -  a 2024 1st round pick -  and 9 pitching prospects in the top 30.  Festa  currently looks like the best of the bunch,  but I fully expect 1-2 arms from that 2022 class to succeed and make it to the big leagues.  That is just too much talent,  not all of it will flame out most likely.   

So we have accumulated 16 War from our pitching prospects drafted.  Currently we have an above average starter in Ober, with Sands and Varland also being part of the team.  We have in total 11 prospects drafted in our top #30 prospects and I expect that to go up at the end of the season as 2023 draft picks begin to get included.  A possible #2 Festa,  some #3 - #5,   and true wildcards in Canterino, Priellip and Soto (each with slight chance at being a #1 or #2 but all with major question marks).  So yes I think they have developed a pipeline.  Yes I think they have traded away talent to help big leagues,  and I expect much more to come in the future.  

12 hours ago, Bill Tanner said:

To be fair, you have to credit the FO either for the pitchers they drafted, developed and traded who are now big leaguers (Faucher, Sawyer Gibson-Long, Legumina, Povich), or those they traded for and developed into big leaguers (Ryan, SWR, Duran, Alcala).  You also failed to identify Sands, Varland, Winder and Funderburk.  The FO has 7, not 8 drafts.  And when you consider the jury is still out on the 2020-2023 draft classes, I think what they've done with these pitchers from the 2017-2019 classes is not nearly as bad as you make it out to be.  Over, Ryan, SWR and Varland could make up 4/5 of a rotation alone.

I agree about pitching used in trades. The rest of it no. The article is about drafting and developing pitching not trading for it. And if you folks are including Winder Funderburk and Varland then you are really stretching it. They are minor leaguers who have not proven to be major leaguers.