Moving Louie Varland to the Bullpen Isn’t Straightforward

Any conversation about moving Louie Varland back to the bullpen is a multi-faceted discussion for the Minnesota Twins. The fact that he pitched well in relief late last season is not reason enough, on its own, to go down that path in 2024. It is worth discussing, but Derek Falvey and Rocco Baldelli would need to make a pair of separate decisions.

Is there Enough Starting Pitcher Depth to Sustain Moving Varland to the Bullpen?
Entering the regular season, it was supposed to be Anthony DeSclafani who would take the fifth and final rotation spot. He never pitched, and that meant Varland never went to Triple-A. The Twins needed to add a solid frontline starter this offseason, but hamstrung by ownership’s decision not to spend, they couldn't find a suitable target.

When DeSclafani was thrown into the Jorge Polanco trade, his addition created depth in the form of both Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson being available at Triple-A St. Paul. After Varland made four turns to the tune of a 9.18 ERA, it was Woods Richardson’s turn to take over. He has been fine, but it's hard to fully trust that yet. With Chris Paddack also struggling recently, it’s worth wondering how long until Baldelli will need to make another change in the group.

Right now, Varland might not be the top depth piece. That would be top pitching prospect David Festa, but expecting him to earn a promotion and immediately stick is probably shortsighted. Young players need an opportunity to find their footing, and that often includes some struggles along the way. Beyond Festa, there is some combination of Caleb Boushley, Randy Dobnak, or Adam Plutko to look at. Brent Headrick remains on the 60-day injured list with a forearm strain, and may be done for the year. Boushley, Festa, and Varland all have an inside track, with a spot already on the 40-man roster. Simeon Woods Richardson also had a 6.08 ERA prior to his promotion, so the surface numbers don't tell the entire story.

Varland also came back against the Colorado Rockies in a spot start on Tuesday night and looked strong. Throwing five innings of one-run baseball while striking out three, he gave the Twins everything they could have hoped for out of him. Of course, the lineup he was facing allowed for a soft landing spot, but his execution was top-notch. Pouring in 42 of 63 pitches for strikes, he was both efficient and effective.

In short, the depth at Triple-A isn’t exactly inspiring, and without Festa immediately arriving, taking Varland from the group is nerve-wracking, even though he isn’t pitching well. It’s a problem that was created this offseason, and now it’s rearing its head.

Can Varland Be Better in the Bullpen?
Of course, the short answer here is yes. We saw that last season. The caveat is that it also should include the disclaimer that he would not be in this shape. It’s not just that Varland has struggled as a starter, but also that the stuff doesn’t play in the current form. When with the Twins earlier this year, Varland found himself grooving way too many middle-middle pitches, and that’s not a location that will work in any role.

While he owns a 5.31 ERA at Triple-A, the numbers say he is due for positive regression as evidenced by a 3.71 FIP and 3.58 xFIP. His walk rate and strikeout rate have returned to a mark more consistent with 2023, and he’s getting a lot of ground balls. Some of that positive momentum was seen while he occupied the bump for Minnesota on Tuesday.

The Twins have tinkered with Varland’s pitch mix, and it has made him much less effective. Taking a chunk of his fastball usage away, and drastically reducing his slider usage in favor of a cutter, the offerings aren’t there to get everyone out. It wasn’t as though the slider was a particularly effective pitch for Varland, but the cutter hasn’t worked at all. Before the demotion, opposing hitters spit on his stuff outside the zone and chased a terribly low 21% of the time. It essentially halved his whiff rate, as well, bringing it down to 7%.

If a move back to the bullpen is made, then it probably comes in the form of reshaping the slider but going back to that mix. He’s a much more effective pitcher as a fastball-slider guy, and fastball-slider guys are much more effective as relievers. Varland noted wanting to work in the rotation this season, and he has given it a shot, but being in the big leagues as a goal probably comes by emerging from beyond the outfield wall.

There’s no denying the best version of the Twins has the 2023 version of Louie Varland on the roster. As a starter, that arm may no longer exist, and while it could hurt the depth by bringing it back, turning to the bullpen blueprint may be best.