Chris Paddack's Velocity is Down. Should David Festa Come Up?

[Cody Pirkl]

It was always assumed that Chris Paddack would require some upkeep throughout his first season after Tommy John surgery. Are we seeing some signs that it’s time for a rest?

Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Chris Paddack has had a strong season thus far, with an ERA of just over 4.50, which doesn’t tell the story of how great he’s been at times. While he’s had something of an up-and-down season in terms of stuff and success, it seems that he’s trending down more recently as we approach June. Is it time for the Twins to give him a break?

Paddack has, surprisingly, been asked to eat low-leverage innings at times, and has been allowed to pitch deeply into starts. It should be no surprise that he looks worn down, as he surpasses 60 innings in the season. In his previous start against the Rangers, his velocity was down across the board, including 1.7 mph on the fastball. Against Kansas City on Thursday, the fastball was down 1.9 mph. It may be time.

We’ve seen the Twins manage pitchers like Michael Pineda in the past by placing them on the IL for even the minimum amount of time to build back up and withstand the long stretch of an MLB season. It may be worth considering being proactive, as right now may be the perfect time to give Paddack a breather.

For as strapped as the Twins were on starting pitching depth to begin the season, things are looking up. After Anthony DeSclafani required season-ending surgery and Louie Varland was demoted to Triple-A, Simeon Woods Richardson shored up the Twins rotation. Not only has the MLB rotation seen a starting pitcher rise to the occasion, but the Saints have seen a top prospect emerge.

A break for Chris Paddack right now would afford David Festa a much-deserved shot in MLB, with a clear end point for the trial and a chance to retreat to Triple-A to work on whatever weaknesses big-league hitters expose. The 6-foot-6 former 13th-rounder has struck out a dominant 36.8% of opposing hitters so far in 2024. His workload has been fully built up, and his starts have become must-see TV with the St. Paul Saints.

It’s possible, too, that Festa reaches a wall. He’s approaching the halfway point on his innings total from last year, and it’s possible the Twins still treat him with kid gloves as his prospect status elevates. Filling the innings now with Festa so Paddack can perform down the stretch seems beneficial, understanding that it could allow Festa to take a turn resting and recovering upon his return to the minors.

We may see Paddack come out firing in his next start, and in that case, maybe his recent stretch turns out to be a blip. The innings wall will undoubtedly be coming at some point. Neither the Twins nor Paddack wants it to hit in August, when he’s needed most.

With an exciting candidate to replace him, should the Twins give Chris Paddack a rest? Should they play it extra carefully? Should they give him a few more starts to assess? Let us know below!

View full article

[4twinsJA]

Yes, looks like Paddock needs a rest and Festa has earned an opportunity. There is 40 man roster issue, someone would have to go to 60 day IL or be DFA'd/released.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Good article about a good suggestion. I do not see any downside to it. Thanks Cody.

[Dman]

I think it is likely prudent to give Paddack a break.  He was going to need a few just coming back from TJ.  I wouldn't mind giving Festa a shot, but what would his innings limit for this year be?  If added to the 40 man is he going to be available the whole season?  That being said he will need to added to the 40 at the end of the season to avoid being selected in Rule V draft so maybe just bite the bullet and make room early.

They still might give Varland one more try, but he hasn't seemed to fix the homer problem he seems to have. Hard to say what they will do, but it would be nice to see what Festa can do at the MLB level.

[Karbo]

I would wait a little longer. Wouldn't want him to face Yankees in NY, but maybe against Pit?

[stringer bell]

2 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I would wait a little longer. Wouldn't want him to face Yankees in NY, but maybe against Pit?

IIRC, Varland's first start was in Yankee Stadium. He did pretty well.  It isn't optimum, but it might not be a bad idea.

I think giving Paddack a break might be the right move. Since his eight inning start in Cleveland, he has struggled although the results having been that bad. 

[Maybebaby]

Absolutely, the young man's confidence couldn't be higher, now's the time to see if he has MLB talent.  Go for it!

 

[Seth Stohs]

Love this idea. Should help Paddack work through the year and maintain effectiveness. Can help Festa by getting him through his MLB debut and a couple of starts in June rather than August or September. Paddack could miss two starts. If Festa's doing OK, maybe they continue it and put SWR on the IL for 15 days to keep him strong... 

 

[DJL44]

Mechanics are more important than velocity as an indicator. If he's not repeating his mechanics it's time to give him a rest.

[LambchoP]

Love the idea. Been wanting to get a look at Festa in the majors to see what he can do.

[Karbo]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

IIRC, Varland's first start was in Yankee Stadium. He did pretty well.  It isn't optimum, but it might not be a bad idea.

I think giving Paddack a break might be the right move. Since his eight inning start in Cleveland, he has struggled although the results having been that bad. 

Wasn't that last season when the Yanks were having a down year? They seem to be playing very well this year.

[jmlease1]

Seems like a good idea to make the move; Paddack has been doing well, but the drop in velocity is concerning. I'd rather be proactive with him and Festa seems like he's ready to be challenged. (moving Canterino to the IL? If not, there are some other pitchers that would likely slip through waivers)

I'd rather Paddack miss a couple of starts for rest purposes in June and come back than need a longer stint on the IL in July or August because he's actually dinged up rather than just worn down coming off a serious surgery.

[Cody Pirkl]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

I would wait a little longer. Wouldn't want him to face Yankees in NY, but maybe against Pit?

FWIW, Louie Varland made his debut against the Yankees and did fine. It actually comes with 2 advantages.

1. There's not a huge scouting report on a guy making his debut yet

2. Festa wouldn't know yet that he's supposed to let the Yankees walk all over him

[Muppet]

This is all fine and well, but doesn't Paddack actually need to be injured to be placed on the IL? While every player in the MLB could potentially have one injury or another, it seemed that MLB was going to crack down with Eppler. Or maybe that was a special case?

[Patzky]

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

I would wait a little longer. Wouldn't want him to face Yankees in NY, but maybe against Pit?

Festa v. Skenes..

[saviking]

3 hours ago, 4twinsJA said:

Yes, looks like Paddock needs a rest and Festa has earned an opportunity. There is 40 man roster issue, someone would have to go to 60 day IL or be DFA'd/released.

Isn't Paddock out of options> wouldn't he have to be the one going on IR?

[MABB1959]

2 hours ago, Maybebaby said:

Absolutely, the young man's confidence couldn't be higher, now's the time to see if he has MLB talent.  Go for it!

 

I think all the yo-yoing hurts players confidence.  Keep him up and let him work on it.  They can't be that tired!

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

Wasn't that last season when the Yanks were having a down year? They seem to be playing very well this year.

Yeah, Soto has given them quite the shot in the arm.

[KBJ1]

It's definitely time to give Festa a shot and Paddack a week or two off.

Didn't we already clear a spot on the 40 man with DFA of Jackson? Or is that spot going to someone coming off the IL?

 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Muppet said:

This is all fine and well, but doesn't Paddack actually need to be injured to be placed on the IL? While every player in the MLB could potentially have one injury or another, it seemed that MLB was going to crack down with Eppler. Or maybe that was a special case?

My thoughts exactly. MLB is cracking down on the good 'ol Phantom IL trips.

Paddack's starts in order avg fastball velo., change from previous start negative numbers in ( ), change from 2 starts ago, First pitch strike %, pitch count,
94.4 Not Avail., Not Avail., 50.0%, 82 pitches
95.0 +0.6mph, Not Avail., 54.5%, 87 pitches
94.0 (1.0mph), (0.4mph), 63.3%, 89 pitches
94.2 +0.2mph, (0.8mph), 70.4%, 96 pitches
92.4 (1.8mph), (1.6mph), 62.5%, 95 pitches
94.3 +1.9mph, +0.1mph, 83 pitches
93.0 (1.3mph), +0.6mph, 99 pitches
92.9 -0.1mph, (1.4mph), 95 pitches
93.1 +0.2mph, +0.1mph, 100 pitches
91.8 (1.3mph), (0.4mph), 74 pitches
91.5 -0.3mph, (1.6mph),  88 pitches




When did the arm fatigue kick in? It would be suspect after throwing 99, 95, 100 pitches in 3 consecutive games, but he's already shown velocity drop offs like this previously in the season. If you watch the trend, he's been losing velocity pretty steady most of the season. It looks to me like Paddack is trading velocity for command.

[4twinsJA]

35 minutes ago, saviking said:

Isn't Paddock out of options> wouldn't he have to be the one going on IR?

Yes, Paddack would go to IL, but remain on 40 man roster so if Festa called up someone else would need to be taken off 40 man roster.

[Doctor Gast]

Since Paddack pitched 8 innings, I have been advocating to bring Varland up in long relief. The whole rotation & short relief have been taking up the slack in the offense, They have been worn thin & need a breather. I wanted a BP game, Varland start & pitch as long as he can & later have Sands pitch at least a couple. That'll push back each SP a start. & Varland can stay up in that capacity. We still can do that or maybe bring up Festa (to get his feet wet & send him down) & keep Varland still in long relief. I think that'd be a good idea.

[Larry Janisewski]

4 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

Love this idea. Should help Paddack work through the year and maintain effectiveness. Can help Festa by getting him through his MLB debut and a couple of starts in June rather than August or September. Paddack could miss two starts. If Festa's doing OK, maybe they continue it and put SWR on the IL for 15 days to keep him strong... 

 

This might be a dumb idea but what about controlling both Paddock's and Festa's innings by piggy backing the two

[bean5302]

53 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Since Paddack pitched 8 innings, I have been advocating to bring Varland up in long relief. The whole rotation & short relief have been taking up the slack in the offense, They have been worn thin & need a breather. I wanted a BP game, Varland start & pitch as long as he can & later have Sands pitch at least a couple. That'll push back each SP a start. & Varland can stay up in that capacity. We still can do that or maybe bring up Festa (to get his feet wet & send him down) & keep Varland still in long relief. I think that'd be a good idea.

I'd rather bring somebody up who isn't getting caved in by AAA bats.

[nicksaviking]

One one hand I'd like to see Festa, but on the other I've still yet to see this team figure out a starting pitcher who has control issues. Despite those issues, I think he has a ton of value. I'm a 'play the young guys' fan, but I think I'd still look to package him with other prospects to replace Paddock with an established good arm. 

Though I say that really with only eyes toward the Marlins. I guess if they can't pry away Luzardo or Garrett I'm happy to roll the dice with Festa.

[MinnInPa]

his problem ..as with all Minn pitchers is that they live in the middle of the plate.. no they dont walk many..but, they are just not too smart..such as throwing meatballs to the likes of Judge, Stanton..and grooving 0-2 count pitches. they believe their 92-93-94 mph fastballs will get misses..well, newsflash..they do not

[arby58]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Yeah, Soto has given them quite the shot in the arm.

Soto sure - and Judge being back is equally important. They both have a WAR of 3.1 at this point in the season.

[Doctor Gast]

33 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I'd rather bring somebody up who isn't getting caved in by AAA bats.

Ober wasn't doing that great down in AAA before he was called up permanently. But when he was called up again he raked. I believe if Varland is called up again & is settled in the BP again, he rake. Independent of what he's doing in AAA.

[thelanges5]

2 hours ago, KBJ1 said:

It's definitely time to give Festa a shot and Paddack a week or two off.

Didn't we already clear a spot on the 40 man with DFA of Jackson? Or is that spot going to someone coming off the IL?

 

Think Castillo took that spot. 

[Cody Pirkl]

3 hours ago, Muppet said:

This is all fine and well, but doesn't Paddack actually need to be injured to be placed on the IL? While every player in the MLB could potentially have one injury or another, it seemed that MLB was going to crack down with Eppler. Or maybe that was a special case?

They won't have any problem with that. Slap him with the "shoulder impingement" label and send him off. Teams do it all the time.