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Chris Paddack has had a strong season thus far, with an ERA of just over 4.50, which doesn’t tell the story of how great he’s been at times. While he’s had something of an up-and-down season in terms of stuff and success, it seems that he’s trending down more recently as we approach June. Is it time for the Twins to give him a break?
Paddack has, surprisingly, been asked to eat low-leverage innings at times, and has been allowed to pitch deeply into starts. It should be no surprise that he looks worn down, as he surpasses 60 innings in the season. In his previous start against the Rangers, his velocity was down across the board, including 1.7 mph on the fastball. Against Kansas City on Thursday, the fastball was down 1.9 mph. It may be time.
We’ve seen the Twins manage pitchers like Michael Pineda in the past by placing them on the IL for even the minimum amount of time to build back up and withstand the long stretch of an MLB season. It may be worth considering being proactive, as right now may be the perfect time to give Paddack a breather.
For as strapped as the Twins were on starting pitching depth to begin the season, things are looking up. After Anthony DeSclafani required season-ending surgery and Louie Varland was demoted to Triple-A, Simeon Woods Richardson shored up the Twins rotation. Not only has the MLB rotation seen a starting pitcher rise to the occasion, but the Saints have seen a top prospect emerge.
A break for Chris Paddack right now would afford David Festa a much-deserved shot in MLB, with a clear end point for the trial and a chance to retreat to Triple-A to work on whatever weaknesses big-league hitters expose. The 6-foot-6 former 13th-rounder has struck out a dominant 36.8% of opposing hitters so far in 2024. His workload has been fully built up, and his starts have become must-see TV with the St. Paul Saints.
It’s possible, too, that Festa reaches a wall. He’s approaching the halfway point on his innings total from last year, and it’s possible the Twins still treat him with kid gloves as his prospect status elevates. Filling the innings now with Festa so Paddack can perform down the stretch seems beneficial, understanding that it could allow Festa to take a turn resting and recovering upon his return to the minors.
We may see Paddack come out firing in his next start, and in that case, maybe his recent stretch turns out to be a blip. The innings wall will undoubtedly be coming at some point. Neither the Twins nor Paddack wants it to hit in August, when he’s needed most.
With an exciting candidate to replace him, should the Twins give Chris Paddack a rest? Should they play it extra carefully? Should they give him a few more starts to assess? Let us know below!
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