David Festa is an MLB-Ready Top 100 Prospect

[Jamie Cameron]

David Festa is off to an exciting start in 2024. What's driving his success? How has he performed? How might he feature in the Twins' plans this season? Let's dig in.

Image courtesy of © Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

David Festa is striking hitters out at a higher rate than any other Triple-A starting pitcher--37.2%, to be exact, 3.3% more than the next-best starting pitcher (Cade Povich), and 16.3% above the average for the level. The 2021 13th-rounder has a 3.59 FIP and a 3.11 xFIP. He's generating an 18.3% swinging-strike rate, far above average for the level. In short, Festa is dominating hitters, and is looking close to MLB-ready.

So, what’s new for Festa in 2024? There are a few trends to mine here, starting with his fastball. Festa is getting more induced vertical break (IVB) on his fastball in 2024 (19.3 inches on average) versus 2023 (17.1). Festa has a decently high release (about 77 inches), but this increase will still help Festa’s fastball do well at the top of the strike zone. Additionally, Festa is generating more release extension in 2024 (6.9 feet), giving his fastball an average effective velocity of 96.3 mph. The outcomes of the fastball improvements? A pitch that generates a 34.1% miss rate. The average in Triple-A is 23.7%.

Let’s ground ourselves in the pitch mix, through about 30 innings. He mostly uses a fastball-slider combination against right-handed hitters, and a fastball-changeup-slider blend against left-handed hitters.

	4Seam%	Slider%	Change%	Curve%
versus LHH	33.8%	22.8%	38.4%	5%
versus RHH	36.1%	48.7%	15.2%	0%

I’d argue that Festa’s command of his slider and changeup are the most important developments from 2023 to 2024. Here’s a look at his slider location from 2023 to 2024, and his changeup location from 2023 to 2024. In both cases, the command has improved significantly. He’s consistently burying his slider down and away from right-handers and his changeup down and away from left-handers.

The results, for Festa’s slider in particular, speak for themselves.

	Strike%	Contact%	Chase%	SwStrk%	K%
Slider 2023	56.5%	66.7%	20%	14.1%	23.5%
Slider 2024	65.2%	55.1%	33.9%	21.6%	44.9%

Much has been made of Festa’s strike-throwing. He did struggle with free passes at the beginning of the season. Since then, however, Festa has tightened up his control significantly.

Control has not been one of Festa’s strengths thus far in his professional career. I’d argue that he has enough stuff to overcome that limitation, though, and his recent improvements in strike throwing and walk rate will set him up well for MLB success, so let's retire the narrative that he doesn't throw enough strikes.

So, where might Festa feature for the Twins? What might his role be? When might we see him in 2024? I think the answer is ‘sooner than you might think’. While Simeon Woods Richardson has been solid for the Twins since Louie Varland was demoted to Triple-A, the Twins have begun to stretch Festa out. His last six appearances for St. Paul have featured an ‘A/B’ pattern. In start A, Festa gets stretched a little further. In start B, he gets a shorter burst of around three innings. In his last three ‘A’ starts, Festa has pitched four, five, and six innings, respectively. In his last start, he threw 86 pitches.

Festa was selected with the 399th pick in the 2021 draft. It’s a testament to his work ethic and the Twins' player development team that he’s now the most dominant strikeout pitcher in Triple-A, on the doorstep of contributing at the major-league level. How far he can continue to climb and the extent of the impact he might have remains to be seen. Make no mistake, though, David Festa has the tools to thrive.

Research assistance provided by TruMedia Sports.

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[Karbo]

They may very well need to call him up yet this season. In the meantime he needs to build up his IP and try to refine his control some. Looks like a very interesting prospect.

[FlyingFinn]

He certainly is the model of what many people want - draft and develop our pitchers. Hope Matthews, Lewis, Culpepper and others can do the same.

[Doctor Gast]

Festa has steadily improved & moved up in the MiLB. By the time we need him in the MLB he should be ready. Festa is getting attention out there maybe he can break the 100 prospect list, IMO he deserves it.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

Do we dare call him part of a pitching.... pipeline?

In seriousness, it's been pretty amazing to consider this organizations ability to develop late round pitchers. In both of their biggest draft and develop successes so far, Ober and Festa were lanky pitchers who threw relatively soft fastballs but had good changeups coming out of college and the Twins immediately added a few mph to their deliveries while helping them develop a better slider.

Festa's fastball improvement is a real key to his development this season. 19.3" iVB (rise) is bordering on elite, that number would put him well within the top 10% of all MLB.

The stuff is there, and it certainly seems like they've found something to get such a big leap in command in the last few starts. Excited to see him debut!

[JD-TWINS]

Mid-June is my assumption for him getting his feet wet in the Show. He’ll have an opportunity to throw 5 plus innings 2-3 times between now and then.

I think he’ll come up for a game to get a feel at Target. Then back in August for a handful of starts over 4-5 weeks to let other rotation guys skip a start or two. Hope he stays on the right path!!

Saw a couple short clips of him throwing and eye test seemed very positive.

[Riverbrian]

This is how it is supposed to work. 

The more Festa's they can produce.

The less Bundy's they have to sign and the less DeSclafani's they have to trade for. 

The less money spent on the Bundy's and DeSclafini's on the roster... the more money available to sign the Ober's to an extension. 

I believe it is quite possible that we were lucky that DeSclafini got hurt. He got himself out of the way by doing so.

Sometimes injuries can make the team better.  

[DJL44]

The improvement in location for the offspeed pitches is terrific. I don't know if he will be able to throw deep into games with only fastball/slider vs RHP. He'll probably need to be able to mix in the changeup as well against RHP to get through the order a 3rd time. From the heat map it looks like he has mostly abandoned the changeup low and away to RHP. That might need to be his next adjustment.

[LambchoP]

As long as he continues to improve his control and continue to pitch deeper and deeper into games, I think there's a good chance he does get a handful of starts in the majors. Would be a good test for him, and check off one more obstacle to him potentially making the team out of spring training next year.

[Dman]

Festa has definitely been trending up.  His numbers have always been pretty solid I think his biggest questions mark has always been stamina.  If he can not melt down as the game goes on he looks like a mid rotation arm to me.  He has some really good pitches as his swing and miss indicates.  I hope he puts it all together as he moves to the MLB level.

Man how would our depth look like if we still had the lefty Povich?  Gotta believe things would look quite a bit better.

[gman]

I think Festa has put himself in line for a call up. Hopefully there won't be any injuries in the rotation, although they may give bring some one from Triple A to start a game and give their starters a breather day. Has Festa moved in front of Varland for that start? If Festa has, then I could see Varland brought back up to strengthen the bullpen.

[tony&rodney]

Festa has been trending positive for a couple of years now. Each level has been a challenge that he has met thus far with the incremental improvements noted in the Cameron's article. 

The past two years I have tried to catch his games via milb.com and have seen both the steady gains and areas where Festa can still improve. While I don't think he is quite ready at this time (mid May), a  continued increase in command and control along with the opportunity to build stamina could make Festa a solid choice if the need should occur in mid season or later.

Having both Festa and Varland available for spot starts or as replacements for an injured or ineffective Twins pitcher is a sweet option for the organization. Each would be exciting out of the bullpen late in the year or in the playoffs too. 

[jmlease1]

I'm really happy to see Festa doing better in limiting the free passes recently, but until he gets the BB/9 under 4 it's still a fair concern. That said, he clearly has the pitches to compete and I expect to see him debut in MLB some time this season. I think I ranked him 5th in my Twins prospect ratings?

This is what you want from your player development group, to be able to build up a late round pick into a viable MLB player. It's great scouting too, because he wasn't exactly destroying the competition at Seton Hall; he had a fine senior season, but just ok K rates, not a ton of innings to judge from, etc. But they saw something they could build with and have increased his velocity where he can compete.

I think he'll be competing for a rotation spot in 2025.

[bean5302]

Festa needs to become more consistent with his good games. 3 of his last 5 games have been good. 2 were not. Festa has struggled with throwing strikes for years now, and those high walk rates in the minors generally translate to a AAAA ceiling. If pitchers' "stuff" is good enough, they shouldn't need to be throwing pitches outside the strike zone all the time.

MLB caliber hitters aren't often going to chase that pitch 2" outside the zone. They'll take their ball 4, load up the bases and wait for the 3-0 meatball.

[Linus]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Festa needs to become more consistent with his good games. 3 of his last 5 games have been good. 2 were not. Festa has struggled with throwing strikes for years now, and those high walk rates in the minors generally translate to a AAAA ceiling. If pitchers' "stuff" is good enough, they shouldn't need to be throwing pitches outside the strike zone all the time.

MLB caliber hitters aren't often going to chase that pitch 2" outside the zone. They'll take their ball 4, load up the bases and wait for the 3-0 meatball.

 Concur. As is I think mlb hitters will do as you have stated - they won’t be helping him out with poor plate discipline. My hope is that he can continue to improve in this area to the point where it isn’t an issue. We will see if he gets there. In a normal injury year he would almost certainly get a chance at some point this year. 

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Festa needs to become more consistent with his good games. 3 of his last 5 games have been good. 2 were not. Festa has struggled with throwing strikes for years now, and those high walk rates in the minors generally translate to a AAAA ceiling. If pitchers' "stuff" is good enough, they shouldn't need to be throwing pitches outside the strike zone all the time.

MLB caliber hitters aren't often going to chase that pitch 2" outside the zone. They'll take their ball 4, load up the bases and wait for the 3-0 meatball.

While I don't disagree that Festa needs to become consistent with his pitches, there are a couple of things to remember. Festa was around 6'-6" at 165 pounds. He is growing into his body and adjusting to the added strength/weight. Additionally, while he does have the pitches (stuff) there is a learning curve and confidence angle to be gained with someone who didn't grow up totally dominating hitters. I believe he is the Twins best pitching prospect and by next year he will be ready for MLB. 

[TwinsDr2021]

My thoughts are he will be treated like all these younger starters have been, he will be given a couple of starts this year, Start next year in AAA as the number 1 replacement starter, hopefully he thrives and move into the rotation full time in 26. That way he becomes the next cheap controllable starter for a few years, don't mean that as a bad thing, but if they can get Ober, Ryan, and his prime years for cheap, they can trade them before making the big money and replenish.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

While I don't disagree that Festa needs to become consistent with his pitches, there are a couple of things to remember. Festa was around 6'-6" at 165 pounds. He is growing into his body and adjusting to the added strength/weight. Additionally, while he does have the pitches (stuff) there is a learning curve and confidence angle to be gained with someone who didn't grow up totally dominating hitters. I believe he is the Twins best pitching prospect and by next year he will be ready for MLB. 

Festa was drafted at 6'6" and 185lbs in 2020 at age 20. That was 4 years ago. He's 24 now, and about 15% of all starting pitching prospects on "Fangraphs The Board" are as tall or taller than Festa. Festa's had the velocity for years. There's no need to grow into his body anymore. That's been done years ago. There really isn't any more time for excuses for a pitcher nearing the non-prospect age.

Prove you can throw strikes and the balls will stay in the stadium. That's what needs to be on his agenda.

[Brandon]

So how does this work.  we have Pablo for 3 more years after this one.

Ober has 3 more seasons too after this one.

Same with Ryan....3 more seasons

Paddack has through next season.  He may be arbitration eligible one more season.

if Woods-Richardson keeps his spot in the rotation.  He has 6 more season after this one before he is eligible for free agency I think.  

so Festa and Varland need injuries or to pitch in the pen to get opportunities.  

[roger]

The sad part of this report is that Povich was the second best strikeout pitcher.  He is the guy who once was a Twin?

[FlyingFinn]

Festa was great in his first full season, 2022 - 2.43 ERA and 1.09 whip (would have been my choice for Twins minor league pitcher of the year). AA showed that he had some work to do in 2023 but there's a reason he was the Twin selected for the minor league all-star game. Great K% this year, 3.00 ERA. Needs to work on all his pitches, reduce that whip and he will be ready to get a few spot starts for the Twins this year. 2025 is when he will be fully ready for MLB. If some people don't like him, they aren't going to like any of our starting pitching prospects (Raya is more talented but doesn't go very deep into games). 

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Festa was great in his first full season, 2022 - 2.43 ERA and 1.09 whip (would have been my choice for Twins minor league pitcher of the year). AA showed that he had some work to do in 2023 but there's a reason he was the Twin selected for the minor league all-star game. Great K% this year, 3.00 ERA. Needs to work on all his pitches, reduce that whip and he will be ready to get a few spot starts for the Twins this year. 2025 is when he will be fully ready for MLB. If some people don't like him, they aren't going to like any of our starting pitching prospects (Raya is more talented but doesn't go very deep into games). 

Well, you're correct. I don't like any of our starting pitching prospects a whole lot because I'd like to see prospects who don't put a ton of runners on base. Zebby Matthews is the only one in AA+ who has the peripherals and results which are exciting, but he has only 1 start at AA.

Also, as great as you make Festa's first full season out to be, if you take away his SSSS Ft. Myers numbers and look at his results from A+ ball (majority of his season), it looks a heck of a lot less impressive.

(5) David Festa - Can't keep runners off the bases because of BBs coming from what seems like a lack of control. His last start numbers were pretty. 6.0 innings, 0 ER, 3 hits, 3 BBs. That's sustainable. Also came with 2 wild pitches, though.
(6) Marco Raya - Isn't a starter prospect anymore. 50 pitch count limit.
(7) Charlee Soto - Only 18, struggling a bit in A ball, hopefully it starts clicking.
(8) C.J. Culpepper - Walking more than the Proclaimers in his A+ repeat this year. 4 inning starter.
(12) Corey Lewis - Shoulder injury. Has some potential if his shoulder doesn't need surgery.
(13) Matt Canterino - Not really a starter anymore after injury history. 34 innings in AA 2yrs ago
(17) Connor Prielipp - Not really a starter anymore after injury history. 4 innings above rookie ball.
(18) Andrew Morris - Repeating A+, but he's pitching very well with a big jump in K rate. Probably going to AA soon.
(20) Zebby Matthews - Elite results this year. Big jump in K rate, first start at AA was awesome. Fingers crossed.
(23) Simeon WR - 15 innings before rookie status is exhausted. Holding his own at MLB, fingers crossed.
(27) Cesar Lares - Holding his own in A ball at 20. Potential to develop a little further.
(29) Darren Bowen - Late round pick traded from Seattle. K's are good. BB's are not.

This is the complaint many fans have. There isn't a pitching pipeline; there's a pitching cocktail straw.


 

[FlyingFinn]

4 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Also, as great as you make Festa's first full season out to be, if you take away his SSSS Ft. Myers numbers and look at his results from A+ ball (majority of his season), it looks a heck of a lot less impressive.

Not sure what you don't like about a 2.71 ERA and 1.14 whip in Cedar Rapids. And that's not counting his playoff performance that year (as they don't put the playoff #'s in the combined stats) - 6 innings, 2 hits, 0 walks, 10 K's. Always been a Festa fan.

[bean5302]

5 hours ago, Brandon said:

So how does this work.  we have Pablo for 3 more years after this one.

Ober has 3 more seasons too after this one.

Same with Ryan....3 more seasons

Paddack has through next season.  He may be arbitration eligible one more season.

if Woods-Richardson keeps his spot in the rotation.  He has 6 more season after this one before he is eligible for free agency I think.  

so Festa and Varland need injuries or to pitch in the pen to get opportunities.  

It works like this:
Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, Woods Richardson = 130 starts. Twins top 5 combined for 139 starts in 2023, 117 starts in 2022, 101 starts in 2021.

Varland is a long shot to be an MLB caliber starter.
Festa has more potential than Varland at this point, but he's no guarantee. 

If we're expecting 32 starts to be missed to due IL, that's a full starter's workload which needs to be soaked up by somebody, and that's a pretty best case scenario.

In regard to the future, neither Paddack, nor Woods Richardson are sure things IMHO. Hopefully, Festa or another MiLB pitching prospect can show some potential as an upper rotation guy and allow us to trade some assets. The Twins are far from deep in pitching assets right now.

[bean5302]

4 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

...Always been a Festa fan.

I think that's pretty obvious.

[cmoss84]

IVB. Didn't know that was a thing. Neato 

I think stat geeks are inventing and naming their own categories like humans do with stars though.

[JD-TWINS]

22 hours ago, gman said:

I think Festa has put himself in line for a call up. Hopefully there won't be any injuries in the rotation, although they may give bring some one from Triple A to start a game and give their starters a breather day. Has Festa moved in front of Varland for that start? If Festa has, then I could see Varland brought back up to strengthen the bullpen.

I would think they are independent of each other as they are both depth options at this point. ………If there’s an injury, Varland is up next. If everything is stable, I see Festa getting an opportunity in a month.

Something will happen with rotation guys and Varland will be needed over next 12 weeks. Essentially a certainty aligned with history across any staff in the game. Once September arrives, assuming Festa is an option as depth starter, Varland can shift to Pen……..really don’t see that timing changing.

[jmlease1]

10 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Well, you're correct. I don't like any of our starting pitching prospects a whole lot because I'd like to see prospects who don't put a ton of runners on base. Zebby Matthews is the only one in AA+ who has the peripherals and results which are exciting, but he has only 1 start at AA.

Also, as great as you make Festa's first full season out to be, if you take away his SSSS Ft. Myers numbers and look at his results from A+ ball (majority of his season), it looks a heck of a lot less impressive.

(5) David Festa - Can't keep runners off the bases because of BBs coming from what seems like a lack of control. His last start numbers were pretty. 6.0 innings, 0 ER, 3 hits, 3 BBs. That's sustainable. Also came with 2 wild pitches, though.
(6) Marco Raya - Isn't a starter prospect anymore. 50 pitch count limit.
(7) Charlee Soto - Only 18, struggling a bit in A ball, hopefully it starts clicking.
(8) C.J. Culpepper - Walking more than the Proclaimers in his A+ repeat this year. 4 inning starter.
(12) Corey Lewis - Shoulder injury. Has some potential if his shoulder doesn't need surgery.
(13) Matt Canterino - Not really a starter anymore after injury history. 34 innings in AA 2yrs ago
(17) Connor Prielipp - Not really a starter anymore after injury history. 4 innings above rookie ball.
(18) Andrew Morris - Repeating A+, but he's pitching very well with a big jump in K rate. Probably going to AA soon.
(20) Zebby Matthews - Elite results this year. Big jump in K rate, first start at AA was awesome. Fingers crossed.
(23) Simeon WR - 15 innings before rookie status is exhausted. Holding his own at MLB, fingers crossed.
(27) Cesar Lares - Holding his own in A ball at 20. Potential to develop a little further.
(29) Darren Bowen - Late round pick traded from Seattle. K's are good. BB's are not.

This is the complaint many fans have. There isn't a pitching pipeline; there's a pitching cocktail straw.

Here's the thing though: if you focus on the downside/negatives for your pitching prospects, every team's prospect list is going to look pretty crap. Someone coming in from the outside who ready your list above would think the twins pitching prospects have little hope and low value...and that's simply not the case. 

Festa still has an issue with BB/9 that he needs to show he can correct. His last 5 starts have been significantly better in that respect than his first 3 starts of the year, so it's looking up....but reading this you'd think he was trending down.

Raya is still a starter; the fact that you don't approve of the development path they have him on related to his pitch counts doesn't change the fact that the organization and baseball professionals still slot him as a starter.

Soto is 18 with a flamethrower for an arm that they skipped past rookie ball.

Culpepper only has 4 starts this season. the BB/9 is too high, but he's also still (like Festa) been successful at limiting runs.

Lewis (as noted) is hurt. Sadly, that happens with pitching prospects. A lot. Same with Canterino and Prielipp. (arguably neither is a prospect any longer because of their health...but let me know when you find a team that has less than 3 of their top 12-15 pitching prospects with injury issues.)

Morris: you started with the negative again (he's repeating a level) in order to downgrade any accomplishment he's made this year, apparently. Yes, he's repeating the level this season...but he also got an early promotion last season and he's hardly old for the level.

Matthews: basically the only guy on the list so far you didn't put a strike on (though the "fingers crossed" comment suggests you don't have confidence in him)

SWR: arguably, the comment about his rookie status is a suggestion that he doesn't count, but overall, this is fairly neutral

Lares: "holding his own"? he's got a 2.19 ERA and a WHIP of 1.014 at age 20. is keeping the ball in the park nicely too. 

Bowen: The BB/9 isn't great, but it's much more sustainable when you don't give up hits. 5.6 H/9 is great. He's a little older and should advance fast, but he's moved up a level both years as a pro.

If you look at the upside of all of these prospects, you get a very different picture than looking at the downside/flaws. An accurate representation should likely land somewhere in the middle. Twins seem to have a philosophy of pitcher development in bulk, probably knowing that there are going to be injuries and bumps along the way. they'll take a risk on a high impact arm with an injury history (Canterino, Prielipp) but also load up on college pitchers from lesser known schools with characteristics they think they can develop (Festa, Lewis, Matthews, Culpepper). Lot of guys on this list that have a chance to pitch in MLB. But if the standard for a pipeline is having a potential "ace" at every level, I think you're always going to be disappointed. Much as you will if your first instinct is to look for the downside to every prospect.