Do the Twins Have One of Baseball’s Best Front Offices?

[bean5302]

Most fans have EVERYTHING they need to evaluate a front office.
W/L Record.
Playoff success.
Drafting success.
Player development success.
Trade Results.
Contract Extensions.
Free Agency Signings.
Payroll.

I can also evaluate whether or not Tim Anderson is a good starting shortstop despite not coaching him directly or having all the inside information about his favorite way to eat his eggs.

How does this craziness work? By comparison. Fans can compare their own team's performance to teams who are run by other front offices.

The Twins front office has mediocre as a ceiling for their successes so far, which is why they're on the final year of their contracts and the hot seat for their jobs.
 

[jud6312]

19 minutes ago, nova_twins said:

Most fans don't have the knowledge or intellectual capability to evaluate MLB front offices. 

Not to mention the decisions themselves - front offices have access to vastly greater amounts of information than fans do. 

Given those underlying realities, the survey results seem valid to me - baseball execs are a small group that know each other fairly well.

Hi, Thad

[ashbury]

Not much substance to the article, but that's okay, it's a subjective topic in the first place. 

My main reaction is that IF they're one of the best, and haven't come particularly close to winning a World Series in 7 seasons, it just demonstrates what an unlevel playing field the smaller markets compete on.  Six different franchises have won the WS in those 7 seasons, suggesting a certain kind of competitive balance.  But only Washington is even close to what is meant by "mid-market" these days.

Maybe I'm just old-fashioned and need to adjust my rooting interest.  I should pick a sentimental team, as the Twins are, and then pick a second team to follow that actually has a chance.

Meanwhile, good luck, FalVine.  Front offices have gotten smarter during my lifetime* and the latitude for being significantly better gets smaller every year.

* I take only a little credit 😀

[nova_twins]

On a bell curve, #8/30 is above average, not elite. Maybe top 3-4 would be elite. 

Above average FO, below average ownership, arguably below average luck, the results have been pretty much what should be expected.

Another ignored element of this is that Falvine agreed not to clean house when they arrived. That added significant extra challenges, but as part of a longer term philosophy that predated them. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I saw the title of this article and started laughing.  This is such a divisive discussion amongst Twins fandom it almost feels like a click-bait article. 

[Eris]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

The TV issue seems to be a National Issue. Not saying the FO is blameless or has no ability to influence positive results but they are not alone in having issues with TV.

To me it seems the FO took the easy road (and perhaps the one that potentially offered the most money for this year). However, Bally’s was in financial distress and that establishing a streaming option seemed to be the long term path forward.  To have a contract which prohibited the Twins from having streaming rights seems short sighted.  

[Craig Arko]

They need to repeat the 87 & 91 magic first. 

[Schmoeman5]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

From the same author, recently no less:

 

I wouldn't be hanging my hat on those numbers. I don't even know what they represent. But the Twins 20 is far from the Dodgers point total. And the fact they're tied for 8th place total is closer to whoever is 30th than it is 1st. It also looks like one can be good at identifying evaluating and developing talent. But what puts the Dodgers in a different stratosphere is an owner who is willing to spend. And the Rays counterpunching back and saying, now hold on a minute. And @USAFChief. Thank you for pointing out this article. Which is hilariously being used by both sides of the discussion. 

[Doctor Gast]

I was a big fan of this FO. IMO they have handled pitching pretty well. The pipeline although has been slow to develop & so far the top product has been Ober & they have tweaked quite a few outside pitchers to benefit us. The usage is trending the right way. 

A couple of things I dislike the most. 1st thing is that they are tight-lipped when you don't want them to be & open their mouth when they shouldn't (ex: shifting Graterol to pen before trading him). 2nd is they never admit to their mistakes & always double down. IMO a good FO says the buck stops here.

MN has always maintained a good culture even before Falvey. This is the main reason that separates MN from the rest of the teams. This FO has been pretty lucky in other teams approaching them w/ decent trades. What makes me nervous is when nobody is offering any good trades, this FO is terrible in initiating trades & seems to be a target if a team wants to unload (a) player(s).

Analytics are a good thing but if your philosophy is off (all or nothing high priority- defense & small baseball not important) analytics won't help you (poor player evaluations & development go hand in hand with this). You also have to know when to go with your gut. I have been patient w/ them & if you don't care about competing at the top level they are fine. But if you want a World Series team we need to go elsewhere.

[Cody Christie]

5 hours ago, USAFChief said:

From the same author, recently no less:

 

@USAFChief I ranked the front office as the second lowest reason on that list.

[Danchat]

3 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Honestly, no they do not have one of the best front offices. The Twins front office is above average but no better than that. They're good at their jobs but not one of the best.

This is where I'm at. They've had some good offseasons mixed in with some bad ones, and have had some great trades mixed in with some dumpster fire ones. It's a mixed bag. The starting pitching pipeline never materialized, but recently they've figured out how to get the most out of their bullpen arms. They've always got hitting prospects up and coming. Hopefully we will start to see an influx of international players as we've had a drought of them over the past 10+ years.

Still only one playoff series win since they got the job in 2017 despite being in a garbage division... but the front office is certainly not bad. They can build a playoff contender but I'm pretty doubtful about them building a World Series contender.

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Agreed with the kudos for Cody Christie. I do love me some alliteration!

4th in the AL, 8th in MLB is upper third. Not exactly “complete 180”. certainly more respect among peers than among rubes, but generally you see that phenomenon. 
 

I do believe it’s a good front office, well run organization and it’s clear the strategic vision from Falvey manifests itself in every aspect of operations. That’s the sign of great leadership. Leadership is only one (albeit important) aspect of effectiveness. They still need to prove consistency. so far 2024 is fairly consistent with 23, but YOY over their tenure has been wildly inconsistent. Achieving goals is the unclear part about their organizational effectiveness. I don’t know where their sites are set… but either they aren’t achieving them very often or the bar is set low.

all in all, they’re fine and my gripe is mainly with modern baseball more than Falvey

The general opinion from those active in the TD forum would describe the FO in the bottom 2/3 of all the organizations ………… my personal guess on a pole would have them 22-26th……,some would argue 30th. Completely subjective, but I read everyday & have for a couple years. It’s certainly not a rosey sentiment……pretty close to a 180.

Wildcard in first year - 2017

Division Titles in - 2019, 2020, & 2023

Team was absolutely beaten up by injury in ‘22………….4 playoff trips in 7 opportunities. 

Some good trades - some really good trades - some clunkers. Julien - Ober - Jeffers - Miranda - Duran - Larnach - Lewis - Lee and more guys to come have come through draft process. I know there are more than a handful of negatives some will be happy to point out…… I still think they do a much better than average job!

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

I was a big fan of this FO. IMO they have handled pitching pretty well. The pipeline although has been slow to develop & so far the top product has been Ober & they have tweaked quite a few outside pitchers to benefit us. The usage is trending the right way. 

A couple of things I dislike the most. 1st thing is that they are tight-lipped when you don't want them to be & open their mouth when they shouldn't (ex: shifting Graterol to pen before trading him). 2nd is they never admit to their mistakes & always double down. IMO a good FO says the buck stops here.

MN has always maintained a good culture even before Falvey. This is the main reason that separates MN from the rest of the teams. This FO has been pretty lucky in other teams approaching them w/ decent trades. What makes me nervous is when nobody is offering any good trades, this FO is terrible in initiating trades & seems to be a target if a team wants to unload (a) player(s).

Analytics are a good thing but if your philosophy is off (all or nothing high priority- defense & small baseball not important) analytics won't help you (poor player evaluations & development go hand in hand with this). You also have to know when to go with your gut. I have been patient w/ them & if you don't care about competing at the top level they are fine. But if you want a World Series team we need to go elsewhere.

If Gray pitches well - as was expected, against Houston, they could have realistically been in the ALCS last season. Not really sure what the beef is with their competitive stature?

To me they keep re-molding the team to have more strengths every year.

Correa - Lopez moves seem to not be discussed as positives and only the problem moves get discussed.

The FO can’t control Buxton or Lewis’ health…..they have an excellent Pen - their rotation is average to above average.

The Catcher - SS - 3B - 2B all have the capability to star in MLB.

The Yankees have scored 2 runs or less for a handful of games in a row…….there are no perfect teams. It’s particularly difficult on the FO when ownership shifts the budget back to 2021 level in 2024!

[JD-TWINS]

2025:

Lee - Correa - Julien - Kirilloff/Miranda…IF

Lewis - Buxton/Castro - Larnach/Martin…OF

Jeffers/Vazquez

Farmer - Santana - Kepler salaries gone and a budget increase of $20M to high $140’s …that’s $42M to spend to supplement the rotation & DH or OF spot.

Rotation is more than competitive & Pen is solid.

I do not see why, with decent health, the club as assembled would not be competitive for the AL Pennant?

Is this delusional?

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

I don't understand how people are beefing with this article. The Twins are tied for eight place, with less than half of the points of the teams ahead of them with zero 1st place votes. 

Based on success in the past five and a fifth years, this front office is objectively better than the FOs of the White Sox, Tigers, Royals, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Angels, Athletics, Mariners, Mets, Marlins, Pirates, Cubs, Reds, Giants, and Rockies. That's 15 teams, at least, that the Twins are better than.

Then, you have the Padres, Yankees, and Phillies, who have spent oodles of money and made risky trades in search of a World Series they haven't won. Also, the Nationals haven't done squat in the last 4 years, and the Astros have a brand-new coach and a 2nd year GM while being one of the worst teams in baseball so far this year.

That leaves the Twins and nine other FOs (Orioles, Rays, Guardians, Rangers, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks) at the top. Seems pretty reasonable to be ranked 8th or 9th. 

[chpettit19]

I would put them in the general area of 8-14. I think they're above average, but far from the elite. I don't believe their strategies will lead to a World Series, but do believe they'll continue to fight for central titles. They make some good moves, they make some bad ones. If they're replaced I'd say it's more likely they're replaced with someone worse, but there is most definitely room to improve.

People also need to understand the difference between disagreeing with the FO on certain moves and calling them incompetent. They decided signing Joey Gallo for 11 mil was smart. Some fans disagreed (full disclosure, I defended the move). Those fans could disagree with that move (and they were right while the FO was wrong) and not be calling the FO incompetent or be calling for them to be fired. 

Along those lines, here's a news flash for everyone: the FO themselves have these very same debates internally. They're debates with far more data, but they're the same general debates. Signing Santana didnt get 100% support, I promise you. There are decisions Falvey and Levine disagree on. Or Falvey and Rocco. Or any combination of the 3. Someone also pointed out that fans have everything they need to judge the FO. Success and failure. That's all any fan needs. The FO shouldn't be judged on anything else. Do they build winning teams or not?

[Jocko87]

There is a lot of discussion of recent years and field results and while that is important and part of the discussion its not the whole picture.

We have to take into account what they inherited and what they have done behind that scenes that will result in continuing the success down the road.  Sure, they've been able to have several extra players other teams want every year but if they can do that every year that would speak highly of them, with the inbound players being a different part of the evaluation. 

There have been several stories over the years of different things they have upgraded behind the scenes, tech, scouting, etc.  That all cost money and effort but the idea is that $3m that helps all players is worth more than one $30m player.  Again, it's year to year high level results in prospects and big club competitiveness that we will see how much it pays.

The main thing for me is that we are just entering a phase where they really have what they want in place.  They inherited and entire system of pitch to contact pitchers and make contact hitters and both sides have been completely turned over to power pitchers and what ever you might categorize the hitters.  By my rough figuring, Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Jose Miranda, Griffin Jax and Jordan Balosavic are the only remaining players in the organization they have not made a stay or go roster decision on.  That's quite a significant turnover in faces and features.  They have a type and they collect them.

This is the most talented Twins 40 man roster I can remember, or look up.  We are having very real discussions of where we will play top 20 prospects regularly.  For all the questions about the pitching pipeline, I'm not sure what more you want-other than a Paul Skenes of our very own.  They are pitching as good as anyone.

Right now they are top third in baseball or so.  Three years from now they might get some Tampa respect.

[DJL44]

12 hours ago, HoskenPowell said:

How much $$$ is tied up in Farmer?????   Should have been spent on a starter.

About $6M or enough to get a terrible starting pitcher.

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

About $6M or enough to get a terrible starting pitcher.

When you put it that way, I'll take me some Farmer.

[MGM4706]

No. A strong organization builds on what they have to get stronger. This season we had a chance at building a stronger pitching staff. But instead they let Gray go to save money hoping Varland would step in. He wasn't ready. So we took a step backwards. They just do what the Pohlads allow and that is to make money and not focus on going deep in the playoffs. That's why they hired Rocco. He is a "Yes" man who won't rock the boat. So if making money is the standard they are good. If going deep in the playoffs then not so much.

[Schmoeman5]

8 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

2025:

Lee - Correa - Julien - Kirilloff/Miranda…IF

Lewis - Buxton/Castro - Larnach/Martin…OF

Jeffers/Vazquez

Farmer - Santana - Kepler salaries gone and a budget increase of $20M to high $140’s …that’s $42M to spend to supplement the rotation & DH or OF spot.

Rotation is more than competitive & Pen is solid.

I do not see why, with decent health, the club as assembled would not be competitive for the AL Pennant?

Is this delusional?

Question. Where do you get the payroll (budget) increase number from? 

[wabene]

17 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Most fans have EVERYTHING they need to evaluate a front office.

The Twins front office has mediocre as a ceiling for their successes so far, which is why they're on the final year of their contracts and the hot seat for their jobs.
 

You are right, we have decades of watching the Pohlads operate. That is why you should reevaluate your evaluation. Their seats aren't even slightly warm. 

Case in point, DSP's continued employment. Once the Pohlads pick you, you are very picked.

[William K Johnson]

All front offices make mistakes.   Tampa Bay has made plenty.   Cleveland better have a pitcher pipeline, the way they burn through pitchers. There will never be total agreement on everything they do, but as long as they have a solid plan to move forward you live with the errors and move on, kind of like Julein playing second.

[Major League Ready]

21 hours ago, ashbury said:

Not much substance to the article, but that's okay, it's a subjective topic in the first place. 

My main reaction is that IF they're one of the best, and haven't come particularly close to winning a World Series in 7 seasons, it just demonstrates what an unlevel playing field the smaller markets compete on.  Six different franchises have won the WS in those 7 seasons, suggesting a certain kind of competitive balance.  But only Washington is even close to what is meant by "mid-market" these days.

Maybe I'm just old-fashioned and need to adjust my rooting interest.  I should pick a sentimental team, as the Twins are, and then pick a second team to follow that actually has a chance.

Meanwhile, good luck, FalVine.  Front offices have gotten smarter during my lifetime* and the latitude for being significantly better gets smaller every year.

* I take only a little credit 😀

The winning a world series metric has become an idealistic measure over the past 20 years.  There have been two teams in the bottom half of revenue to win the WS over that period of time and none since Falvey took over.  KC got there by being terrible for a very long time.

If we use 92+ win seasons.  There has only been (41) 92+ win seasons among the bottom 16 revenue in the past 20 years.  26 of them were produced by Cleveland (7), Tampa Bay (6), Oakland (5), Twins (4) and Brewers (4).   The other 11 teams managed a grand total of (15) 92+ win seasons.  That's 15 seasons out of a possible 300.  Teams in the bottom half of revenue have won 92+ games in 13% of all seasons.

Maybe we should all pick a 2nd team.  I just accept the reality that it's far from a level playing field.

[Riverbrian]

The 7 snobbiest cities in Minnesota got into my news feed. I didn’t click on it.
 

The 10 best pizza joints in Minnesota got into my news feed. I didnt read it. 
 

I read this article from Cody Christie and by clicking on it. I probably doomed my algorithm. 

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I just accept the reality that it's far from a level playing field.

You could have saved yourself a lot of typing and simply clicked Like on my post.  😊

[Linus]

I would say they are middle of the pack. They have done enough good things that they are certainly above many teams but have made enough mistakes/deficiencies that they can’t be considered one of the best. 

[rv78]

Wasn't going to comment other than my short LOL on page 1 but I just can't get past the lunacy of signing players like Gallo, Santana and Margot and the trading for injured pitchers that happens WAY to often. Add in the acquisition of 1 year wonders like JLopez, and the crop of bullpen arms they went after this off-season and IMO they take too many chances on players that have no consistant track record. Last but not least is the spreadsheet culture and platoon to death or pinch-hit at all costs avenue they have committed to that doesn't really equate into anything but inconsistancy on the field. Do you know how to have players never learn how to hit against an opposite handed pitcher? ....... By never giving them enough opportunities to do so.

[Major League Ready]

On 5/4/2024 at 8:16 PM, chpettit19 said:

 I don't believe their strategies will lead to a World Series, but do believe they'll continue to fight for central titles. 

Do they build winning teams or not?

Which of the teams in the bottom half of revenue do you believe are following strategies more likely to produce a WS winner?  Based on previous posts I am assuming you believe spending and therefore spending capacity influences winning.  They obviously can't follow the Dodger's strategy, so, which team with the same spending capacity would you prefer they follow?

Should they follow the strategies of the teams that have had a better win record since 2017?

Win %
1	Tampa	0.573
2	Brewers	0.555
3	Cleveland	0.551
4	TWINS	0.521
5	Mariners	0.514
6	Oakland	0.485
7	Dbacks	0.480
8	Padres	0.479
9	Rockies	0.461
10	White Sox	0.457
11	Reds	0.453
12	Marlins	0.435
13	Pirates	0.431
14	Orioles	0.424
15	Tigers	0.407
16	Royals	0.405

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Which of the teams in the bottom half of revenue do you believe are following strategies more likely to produce a WS winner?  Based on previous posts I am assuming you believe spending and therefore spending capacity influences winning.  They obviously can't follow the Dodger's strategy, so, which team with the same spending capacity would you prefer they follow?

Trading for extreme injury risk pitchers because they'll be "cheaper."

Extreme platooning.

Prioritizing short side platoon bats over everyday players. 

Strict 50/50 catcher split when 1 catcher is clearly significantly better. 

Refusing to move on from veterans until August in the name of depth to not risk a bad young player being forced into that spot being held by a bad old player.

Building a team that relies on full health so each piece can be perfectly fit into their specific role in order to succeed. 

None of those are spending capacity based, but yes, spending more does help. That's an owner thing, though, so not something I brought up. There's plenty of baseball strategy things that have nothing to do with spending that I disagree with, though.