Unable to Miss Bats or Barrels, Louie Varland Faces Demotion from Rotation

[Matthew Trueblood]

As badly as everyone wanted it to work for the Minnesota Twins' homegrown, home-state righthander in the starting rotation for 2024, he seems destined for a tune-up at the other end of the Green Line. What does he need to fix to find success again in MLB?

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Don't take Louie Varland's intensity, his work ethic, or his open-minded efforts to fix what went wrong for him last year for granted. The Twins have had multiple pitching prospects fall by the wayside over the past half-decade because they lacked those very qualities, and the fact that Varland is (by all accounts) desperate to be great will serve him well in the difficult weeks ahead. Those trials are no longer avoidable, though. 

Manager Rocco Baldelli demurred on Varland's status as a member of the team's starting rotation after the latest in a string of brutal outings to begin what has been a brutal season in Twins Territory Sunday. It was a message sent as much in the reticence as in the recitation, because Baldelli's default posture is to back up and build up a struggling player. He knows his team can't continue to scramble for coverage early in what become blowout losses twice each time through the rotation, though, and for multiple reasons, demoting Varland (probably to Triple-A St. Paul, where he can remain stretched out and try to answer the troubling questions raised by this early turbulence) is much easier and more likely than doing the same with the unimpressive Chris Paddack.

Varland has a 9.18 ERA, and the Twins have lost all four of his starts. His velocity is actually up about one mile per hour, relative to his time as a starter last season, but it's done no good whatsoever. Other than that theoretical bit of good news, there is no good news at all. Of the 175 pitchers who have faced at least 50 batters this year, only 17 have a lower whiff rate on opponents' swings than Varland has. Only two hurlers have a lower chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone.

As we well documented this spring, Varland worked hard at some changes to his arsenal this winter that were designed to make him a more viable starter. He added a sinker, and he swapped out the sweeper he used in 2023 for a curveball, with a much more vertical movement profile. The sinkers were supposed to keep right-handed hitters honest, and looking inside more often. The curves were supposed to help him achieve greater split neutrality.

He's hardly thrown the sinker, which is a problem, but we'll come back to it shortly. The change of breaking ball profiles has worked out nicely, in a vacuum: the curve is outperforming last year's sweeper. His changeup, too, is getting fine results. It's just that everyone--lefties, righties, everyone--is obliterating Varland's four-seam fastball and cutter.

It's clear that Varland never got comfortable with the sinker, and while the Twins are trying not to be as mono-fastball as they've been for the last handful of years, they're still not going to be the team forcing a pitcher to go that direction. They like fastballs, especially ones with average ride from a low release point and with great extension, like Varland's. His four-seamer is, in some ways, what the Twins want all of their hurlers' fastballs to look like. That's what makes this so scary.

The heater itself hasn't changed shape this year, and as we said before, it's coming in harder. Hitters are hammering it, though, because Varland lacks command of the pitch. It wanders over the heart of the plate sometimes, and it misses the zone altogether sometimes. It rarely finds the nice, pitcher-friendly edges of the zone, this year.

His cutter has a bit more of a concrete issue with which to deal. That pitch has taken on a bit more velocity and a bit more horizontal movement. He's been trying to use it in the place of the sweeper from last year, against righties. He keeps missing with it to his arm side, which means right over the middle of the plate. Ditto for lefties, because he's trying to jam them with the pitch inside. The results, all the way around, are a devastating failure.

A sinker might, at least, engender a bit lower-quality contact. I spun up a statistic to measure the inverse of the sweet spot rate you sometimes see cited for hitters. It's the percentage of a pitcher's opponents' batted balls that leave the bat at an angle either below -10 degrees or above 45. Anything hit that way tends to turn into an easy grounder or a can of corn, so I named this metric Harmless %. Of the 175 pitchers mentioned above, Varland's Harmless % for 2024 ranks dead last. Hitters are generating power against him, and when they hit him hard, they're doing it right in the band of launch angles within which the damage is greatest.

This might yet be fixable, but there's a long road ahead for Varland. He's unlikely to find the same success as a starter that he had as a reliever, without changing his mix to reflect the different realities of those jobs. As enticing as the cutter seemed last year, it's not working in longer outings, without a triple-digit fastball to set it up. It'll be interesting to see whether the Twins elect to test their charge's feel a bit, by having him bring back the sweeper but keep the curve.

A four-seamer like Varland's could set up the sweeper to righties and the curve to lefties, without much need for the cutter. The changeup is just enough of a wrench in the works against lefties, and the sweeper and curve can work to righties in tandem, with the right pitch-calling. None of this will matter if he can't find a way to get outs with his fastball, but there's still plenty here. The Twins need to ask Varland to put the pieces of the puzzle back together elsewhere, but he's unlikely to fall out of their plans for the rest of the season. He just needs a chance to reset and evaluate the mistakes mixed into his latest round of adjustments.

View full article

[4twinsJA]

There is little argument for keeping Varland in rotation, even moving him to BP for now. Needs time at AAA to work some things out and regain confidence.

[adjacent]

Question for those who know about pitching. Wouldn't it be a priority to work on the control of the pitches that he has, rather than change pitch mixes or introducing new pitches?

[Dman]

He'll be back and better the next time around.  He had these same issue last year for a stretch where he couldn't find his control.  Let him work on things in St. Paul and give someone else a try.  He needs to gain better command\control and with it more confidence and he will be back fighting for that 5th spot.

[DJL44]

The dropoff from Sonny Gray to Louie Varland has been very steep.

[DJL44]

20 minutes ago, adjacent said:

Question for those who know about pitching. Wouldn't it be a priority to work on the control of the pitches that he has, rather than change pitch mixes or introducing new pitches?

Pitchers often need to work on both at the same time.

[stringer bell]

There seems little doubt that Varland will be sent to St. Paul before his next turn in the rotation and it seems this is proper. Will Woods Richardson be better than Louie? It seems that this version of SWR has more going for him than what Varland is producing.

I would note that in his three starts, Paddack has struggled. In two of those starts, the Twins managed to win, while in the third start Paddack didn't give the team a chance. The Sheriff actually gave the team a chance despite not going deep into his starts against the Dodgers and Brewers. I do think he merits a bit more slack than Varland. 

[Kenny Powers]

This is just my own opinion....I think he got screwed up when they moved him to the bullpen last year.  He immediately started throwing harder and lighting up the radar gun.  There's nothing wrong with that had they intended to keep him there.  But (again my opinion) I feel like he's still trying to throw it through the wall now as a starter instead of concentrating on hitting his spots and mixing his pitches.  It's sprinter vs. a marathon runner mentality.  When he first came up he had good success as a starter throwing around 93.8 mph average.  He's up to averaging 96 mph this year.

It's why I cringe when I see people suggesting moving Duran or Sands back to starting.   I know some guys have been able to seamlessly transition.  But I look at it more like splitting face cards at black jack.  You already have a winning hand if they are successful bullpen guys.  Don't get greedy!

[gunnarthor]

Unless we have no starters to replace him, I can't see why (absent them thinking he isn't a starter and rather is a permanent bullpen arm) they wouldn't send him to AAA, work on some pitches, get his confidence back.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Not ready to totally dismiss him yet, but considering the Twins offense has no ability to pick him up, he probably needs a reset in AAA.

As for who replaces him, it really doesn't matter any more.  The Twins playoff chances are hanging by the slimmest of margins right now, and a 9+ ERA shouldn't be that difficult to replace.

[DJL44]

18 minutes ago, Kenny Powers said:

When he first came up he had good success as a starter throwing around 93.8 mph average.  He's up to averaging 96 mph this year.

He was giving up a lot of home runs when he threw 94 and the trend was getting worse rather than better. Adding movement, rather than velocity, is probably the right answer if he wants to stay in the rotation. Movement pitches are going to be harder to throw for strikes.

Varland seems to have stuff that plays up in a relief role where the extra velocity makes up for his tendency to miss his spots.

[JD-TWINS]

42 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

There seems little doubt that Varland will be sent to St. Paul before his next turn in the rotation and it seems this is proper. Will Woods Richardson be better than Louie? It seems that this version of SWR has more going for him than what Varland is producing.

I would note that in his three starts, Paddack has struggled. In two of those starts, the Twins managed to win, while in the third start Paddack didn't give the team a chance. The Sheriff actually gave the team a chance despite not going deep into his starts against the Dodgers and Brewers. I do think he merits a bit more slack than Varland. 

Paddack have Options left? Not sure, but assumed, no…….,if not, he has a bunch of slack since he’s rostered as long as healthy or released……. “released” isn’t happening. Maybe he does have an option left?

Louie’s command with various pitches doesn’t fly. His wound up personality seems to lend itself to a principally 2 pitch mix out of the Pen………maybe he stays stretched out in St. Paul but not in near term plan at Target.

If the Team’s competitive, his best option from mid-August forward may be from the Pen?

[Whitey333]

Although Rocco keeps preaching process over results, this is the major leagues.  There is no higher level.  Here our goal is supposed to win.  Results oriented bottom line.  Just not with the Twins.  I've always liked Varland and hope he gets better.  But he cannot be in a major league rotation at this point.

[bean5302]

Varland's "stuff" suggested it would be a stretch for him to be successful in the rotation. He's not been successful, and there's not much to support the idea he can turn it around. If Varland won't make the adjustments necessary because "he's not comfortable" with a pitch, all the more reason to pull the plug and get him back into the 'pen were he was good.

The Twins need to hand the ball to Woods-Richardson and they need to look for a veteran depth signing now.

[$tryf4Life]

I would like to live in the reality where if your results suck then you don’t get a job with the big league cub. I wouldn’t want anyone to loose sight of the fact that the goal is winning the league so we have a shot at a championship. 
 

Varland has not earned a starting role. He got handed one cause we were stupid and believe in Desc. I support a next man up mentality with him ( and plenty other vets) 

I care far more about wins then anything else including pitch mix, velocity and player development. 
 

Varland throws things in the middle. When he does he gets destroyed and we lose = no big league job. 
 

This team is playing below replacement level, I would rather watch replacements right now. 

[DJL44]

7 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I support SWR coming up so we can see what he has over 3-4 starts.  If he or Paddock are not good then the cupboard is pretty bare and they may need to start looking at trades or picking up one of the last few FA pitchers.

I agree that if they're not good after trying SWR and Paddack the cupboard is bare and they need to look at trades but the trades would be selling rather than buying at that point. With the poor performance of their short-timer veterans I'm not sure if the Twins have much to sell that anyone else would want. There's no Nelson Cruz to trade for the next Joe Ryan. Getting Max Kepler going is a priority.

[Jeff K]

Varland should have been sent down after his previous start.  Too much slack to start the season.  SWR looked good with his one start.  Yup; I get that this doesn't mean he is ready; but Varland CLEARLY is not ready as a starter.  Twins have to hope that Paddack gets it together so we can be solid through 4 starters.  None of it matters if the Twins continue to hit like they are.

[mnfireman]

If the team wants to keep him stretched out as a starter, he needs to go to St. Paul to work on things and get his confidence back. Otherwise send him to the BP. Either way, SWP should be next man up.

[USAFChief]

In case anyone missed it, he's no longer "facing" demotion. It's a done deal.

Kepler activated, Ronny Henriquez added to 40 man and 26 man, Varland and Camargo to St Paul. Duarte to 60 man to make room for Henriquez. 

Henriquez hasn't been starting in St Paul. He did go 3 IP his last outing, so no idea if they plan to ease him into the rotation, although that seems pretty unlikely. He hasn't been a starter, and was bad enough in the minors to be non-tendered just a year ago.

So for now it appears they're avoiding making a decision until they need a starter Friday. 

 

[Jkeady12]

Rocco being Rocco,  he has never handled his pitching staff well. 

[Paul Walerius]

6 hours ago, Dman said:

He'll be back and better the next time around.  He had these same issue last year for a stretch where he couldn't find his control.  Let him work on things in St. Paul and give someone else a try.  He needs to gain better command\control and with it more confidence and he will be back fighting for that 5th spot.

And he was excellent in the pen.

[Teflon]

Quote

...at the other end of the Green Line

Nice way of referring to getting sent to AAA. Good piece on Varland. I hope he can turn things around.

[Linus]

I love Varland but he isn’t going to be a good starter. His secondary pitches aren’t good enough. When he was in the pen he threw his cutter harder and it was really good. Now they have to keep him as a starter because they have no starter depth at all. What a fiasco of an off season. 

[stringer bell]

5 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Paddack have Options left? Not sure, but assumed, no…….,if not, he has a bunch of slack since he’s rostered as long as healthy or released……. “released” isn’t happening. Maybe he does have an option left?

More than five years service time, so he can't be optioned without his consent.

[jkcarew]

7 hours ago, Dman said:

He'll be back and better the next time around.  He had these same issue last year for a stretch where he couldn't find his control.  Let him work on things in St. Paul and give someone else a try.  He needs to gain better command\control and with it more confidence and he will be back fighting for that 5th spot.

I don’t really think it’s as simple as his ‘control’.

In his previous start against Baltimore he faced 27 batters and didn’t walk one. Problem was, he gave up about a dozen missiles that landed in and around the greater Baltimore metropolitan area.

So, what do you do in your next outing? You stop challenging and you start nibbling. Command’s great…but most starters make multiple ‘mistake’ pitches a game. I think Varland needs to find something new/different, so that his ‘mistakes’ are not so harshly and frequently punished.

[JD-TWINS]

16 hours ago, stringer bell said:

More than five years service time, so he can't be optioned without his consent.

I thought he (Paddack) was not able to be optioned - Thanks for clarity………after Monday night’s 7 scoreless with 10K’s……..hope his “issues” aren’t again a topic.