Is It Time for the Twins to Shuffle the Coaching Staff?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins have come out of the gates for the 2024 MLB regular season in about the most lethargic way possible. While the pitching staff has been stout, the lineup has been every bit the problem it was a season ago. It’s time to rip the Band-Aid off and fix the hitting process.

Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

When Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were hired to lead Minnesota’s front office instead of Terry Ryan, they were handed a holdover manager in Paul Molitor. It took two years for them to make their own hire instead, in the form of Rocco Baldelli, and he’s largely been a success story in terms of communication and results. Rudy Hernandez was a Molitor holdover, and while the front office has also brought in David Popkins and Derek Shomon to help out the hitters, the three-headed department now needs to be under a microscope.

It was well-documented just how bad the Twins were a season ago when it came to hitting with runners in scoring position. Failing to push runs across the plate is why the team found themselves hovering around .500 at the midway point, and it wasn’t until the Cleveland Guardians completely fell off that the division tilted in Minnesota’s favor.

Royce Lewis was eventually inserted into the Twins lineup, and so was hot-hitting rookie Matt Wallner. The production ticked upward, and Minnesota found themselves hosting postseason games and winning a series against the Toronto Blue Jays. Ultimately, though, the lineup could still be inconsistent, and the same problems have reared their head to start the 2024 season.

Despite moving on from both Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda in the starting rotation, and losing big names like Caleb Thielbar, Jhoan Durán, Justin Topa, and Josh Staumont from the bullpen, it hasn’t been the pitching that has scuffled out of the gate. With a lineup unable to score runs, failure to execute with runners in scoring position again, and an overall lack of execution, it’s time for the specialty coaches to come under fire.

With Tyler Wells shelved after an elbow injury, the Baltimore Orioles called upon Albert Suárez to start the final game of a three-game series on Wednesday. Having not pitched in the majors since 2017, he nonetheless shoved against Minnesota. While he generated just four strikeouts in 5 1/3 innings, he got 14 whiffs on 75 pitches and his fastball was untouchable, as far as Twins batters were concerned.

Preparation and process are the responsibilities of position coaches, and putting Minnesota in a spot where the lineup can execute is the chief role for Popkins, Hernandez, and Shomon. It may be a communication problem, in that the players simply aren’t grasping or working hard enough to implement what they're being told, but that doesn’t make the situation any better. If there is an inherent issue with process, we have seen enough results at this point to conclude something different is needed as well.

It can’t continue to be on Lewis or some other hot rookie to prop up this lineup. The Twins' higher-paid, proven veteran talents need to produce. While Carlos Correa was among the best things going before his injury, Byron Buxton owns a 21/1 strikeout-to-walk ratio that would make Miguel Sanó blush. Ryan Jeffers has come on of late, but Edouard Julien has been slow to go, and Kyle Farmer has looked utterly worthless in his expanded role.

Where the Twins turn from here, and if they hire someone with a greater level of experience remains to be seen. The hitting coach triumvirate is not the sole reason for the slow start, but continuing down this path and hoping the slog sorts itself out would be an insufficient way to address the start. It’s time to make a change, in an effort to keep this season from going entirely off the rails. What shape that change takes is up to the front office, but there has to be one.

View full article

[Jocko87]

I still have questions from that players only meeting / scrapping the hitting plan time frame from last year.  I kinda expected Popkins to make a graceful exit in the offseason as it seemed a direct repudiation of his program.

I could also invision a scenario where he made adjustments in that period and was part of the fix. I still have the same questions about him that I've always had. He might be the most technically proficient instructor of the swing but without high level experience as a coach or player he will have blind spots. It would stand to reason that Mike Maddux would be two steps ahead on a game plan.

The recent correction for Jeffers is interesting. As reported it was a slight tweak to his swing found in video reviews with Popkins. OK great, it worked, but Jeffers wasn't swinging at garbage two feet off the plate at the time.

My suspicion is that Popkins is too technical and that's what's in the players heads in the game. Everything we hear is Correa elbow moved here, Buxton leg kick there. Those things are important, but you can't be thinking about it during the game. Practice, then execute. All the in game thought should be on the plan of attack for that days pitcher. It doesn't matter if your little swing change isn't quite locked in, go with what you got and work on it later.

Part of the reason for my suspicion is that the game plans suck. Not just not ineffective, actively bad and counterproductive.  I was an advocate for a special assistant Nellie Cruz or Molitor, insert whatever name here, as a voice that knows how to attack a pitcher and pair it with the technical data.

Coaching can only do so much but bad info against 98 and you're screwed from the start.

[Whitey333]

Great article.  Baldelli and the Front Office are too stubborn and set in their process over results policy to actually admit they may be wrong.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

It is the annual time for Twins fans to panic.  It's a very long season.  They are playing badly right now, almost historically so.  Their bats are ineffective and injured.  Their record reflects it. I would feel much worse if they were playing up to what we thought their abilities are and we were still 6-11.  Coaching is important, but I'm not buying that as the cause of all (or even most) of their ills.  This is still quite recoverable, as is evidenced by the standings from April 25, 1991.  Even the run differentials are similar to this year.  I hate quoting Ron Gardenhire, but this really is a time for them to go out and "get after it." 

[Heistyman]

13 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

It is the annual time for Twins fans to panic.  It's a very long season.  They are playing badly right now, almost historically so.  Their bats are ineffective and injured.  Their record reflects it. I would feel much worse if they were playing up to what we thought their abilities are and we were still 6-11.  Coaching is important, but I'm not buying that as the cause of all (or even most) of their ills.  This is still quite recoverable, as is evidenced by the standings from April 25, 1991.  Even the run differentials are similar to this year.  I hate quoting Ron Gardenhire, but this really is a time for them to go out and "get after it." 

You had to go back 30+ years to find the exception.....not very comforting.  

[chpettit19]

I'm on the record many times saying I don't think coaches/managers at the major league level have a dramatic impact on player performance. It's nearly entirely skill with a couple tweaks here and there to give a slight, almost unnoticeable boost. So I don't care at all who they have in those positions.

The reason I'm not going to call for any coaches/the manager's heads is because they'll just be replaced by people with the same philosophies. Nothing changes if the FO doesn't change. They wouldn't say "oh, Rocco didn't work out so let's bring in a no analytics guy who's not going to use platoons and will have starters go 7 every night followed by a pen that is full of guys who only throw certain innings instead of matchup based appearances." They'd bring in Rocco 2.0.

The FO wouldn't say "dang, these hitting coaches didn't work out so let's bring in a slap hitting staff to have everyone start hitting the ball the other way and not try to hit the ball hard, in the air, to the pull side." They'd bring in Popkins, et al 2.0. 

These are FO philosophies. If the goal is to change the overall approach of the team you have to start at the top with the guys dictating the approach. A FO who believes in the current approach isn't going to hire people who preach a different approach.

[Parfigliano]

After a couple years maybe its time to admit the problem isnt that hitters are ignoring Popkins and his staffs approach.  The problem is they implement his approach.

[jjswol]

I'm thinking it is time for the FO to shuffle on outta here.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

I'm always curious why people attribute FO philosophies to the horrible showing at the plate. To me, if there is a philosophy, it is being preached at all levels of the organization. We've seen in recent history, young players come up for AAA and appear to be better prepared and disciplined at the plate than the veteran players too. Whatever is that is being taught in St. Paul, seems to be contradictory to what's going on with the big club. 

My issue with Popkins has been spelled out at ad nauseum. But for the last time. He just doesn't have the resume or experience to be a hitting coach at the MLB level. When nearly everyone in the line-up is slumping, adjustments need to be made and there needs to be more attention to detail. Popkins doesn't give me confidence that he's up to the challenge. The strikeout numbers have been a problem each year he's been with the Twins.

They desperately need a new voice and different set of eyes. Popkins would be better served going to Wichita and earning his stripes there before he's up with the Twins. 

[Linus]

They are pursuing an organizational hitting philosophy.  You can change the coaches but it’s likely not going to matter. Until the organization pursues a different philosophy I’m afraid this is it. If the turnaround last year was really attributable to the soft schedule they have then things do look a little bleak. 

[bean5302]

4 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

I'm always curious why people attribute FO philosophies to the horrible showing at the plate...

It's because the front office prioritizes certain aspects of player profiles. Derek Falvey's drafting and development history values taking walks and hitting home runs. Those profiles almost always come with enormous amounts of swing and miss in their game, and Falvey's drafts haven't produced much in the way of results at the MLB level for the Twins. Falvey created the roster the coaches are working with.
 

[Jim wyllie]

I definitely think it is time for new hitting coaches, at the very least it se ds a message to the rest of the staff that better result are expected and that mire changes will be coming if things don't improve alot.   I think someone like mauer or Morneau would make an interesting hitting coach as they are former batting champs who also could hit with pop.

[Doctor Gast]

Quote

It may be a communication problem, in that the players simply aren’t grasping or working hard enough to implement what they're being told, 

I don't think it's a communication problem because it's the message they have sent to everyone since the '19 "juicedball"  season, the so-called "all or nothing" approach. Lewis, Kiriloff & Martin are more pure hitters that are confident in their own hitting & swerved from the team approach. Correa was established in his style before he came here & Jeffers has modified his swing away from the Twins' approach with Popkin help which has dramatically helped his SO #s & hitting in the clutch. 

We have always had problems with this approach especially when the weather is cool & the league knows very well our philosophy & have very easily prepared for it, which effects drastically our SOs & lack of hitting in the clutch even more so. If the Twins are indeed  changing their approach (which I hope they are) when the season is in full swing, it'll take awhile for the players to adjust especially the likes of Wallner who has been schooled in this philosophy since being a Twin. 

But my guess is all this talk about changing hitting coaches is a smoke screen from the deeply embedded FO's hitting approach problem much like the last time they changed hitting coaches. We do need a change of coaches, IMO it isn't the hitting coaches. We need to change our catching focus on only hitting to defense development & evaluation which our catching coach is inadequate.

[bean5302]

I think we could potentially see a coaching change, but if we do, it'll signal Falvey is feeling a lot of heat. I'm not particularly concerned about the hitters even though they're scuffling badly right now.

I am concerned about Baldelli's lineup selection process and the roster construction. If the Twins miss the playoffs or get swept out again, I have no doubt there will be a new GM running the show by November.

[DFlow]

To be clear- something is wrong with the hitting methodology deployed in 2023 and 2024. Veterans have had historically poor seasons now with a lot of evidence only to be saved by an unparalleled class of prospects last year. Now two of those same players have been in the MLB level hitting program and Julien/Wallner both aren’t quite themselves this year. 
 

This comes down to two things for me:

1) Lack of situational hitting: this team is horrific when it comes to understanding scenarios. Moving runners, putting the ball in play with no outs and a runner on third, etc. two often we see a Buck strikeout here putting double plays or a final out in play. This has to be buttoned up moving forward.

2)Lack of a Strength Based Approach: Every hitter is different and this team needs to put there success profile at the forefront. This hitting model is perfect for Jeffers, but obviously isn’t for Kiriloff/Correa/Julien. These guys are great at going the other way with the baseball and we want to ensure we aren’t screwing with their methodology that makes them successful. Going up and trying to pull homers everytime hasn’t really worked since the juiced ball. It’s time to manufacture runs based on everyone’s strengths.

[Linus]

I get what they are trying to do. The data is pretty clear: a combo of walks and power produce the most runs. The aspect of this that doesn’t get discussed much is the volatility of this approach.  In a three game series you might score 9, 3 and two runs with this approach. That’s 14 runs which seems like a sufficient amount. Reality is you are going to lose two of those games. The trick is to have an offense that can generate consistent output on a game by game basis. 

[Karbo]

This FO is to blame IMO. Coaches coach the players they're given, to the philosophy they're given. Waiting for the big HR just isn't sustainable. A few on-base guys have to be included. As far as coaching, how about trying to teach some of these guys its alright to foul off 2 strike pitches that are close, instead of swinging foe the fences. Jeffers has toned down his wild swing and the results are there. And seeing some of these guys missing fastballs in the heart of the plate with a swing that looks like all or nothing is embarrassing. Another thing I don't understand is the lack of AB's they get in ST. Afraid of getting hurt, so they can start the season and just get hurt anyway?

[farmerguychris]

Just like in other sports, its not the manager that should be let go, it should be the positional coaches- in this case, the hitting coaches.  We've been more than patient.  If the F.O. has a certain way they want us to be hitting - the current set of coaches simply don't appear to be adequately communicating that to the hitters themselves.  Time to try a new approach with new coaches who can hopefully better communicate how the F.O. wants to to hit.  OR - just let the hitters hit the same way they have for their entire lives, they've been successful enough to make it to the show - lets not try to fix what isn't broken?

[CRF]

It's an organizational issue, not an individual issue. Firing coaches, or even Baldelli for that matter, won't fix anything. This comes from the FO. 

[terrydactyls]

13 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I don't think it's a communication problem because it's the message they have sent to everyone since the '19 "juicedball"  season, the so-called "all or nothing" approach. Lewis, Kiriloff & Martin are more pure hitters that are confident in their own hitting & swerved from the team approach. Correa was established in his style before he came here & Jeffers has modified his swing away from the Twins' approach with Popkin help which has dramatically helped his SO #s & hitting in the clutch. 

If there is a team philosophy of home run or nothing,  why haven't the "exceptions" you noted above been traded for players that fit the mold?  I think the problem is that the Twins have a team comprised of mostly boneheads that believe the old adage that homeruns get the chicks.

And following up on that, I have a serious question.  Is it the front office's job to create a philosophy for the team?  Or is their job to find players that fit the philosophy of the coaching staff?  The front offices in other sports seem to draft/trade for players that fit the coaching philosophy.  Why is baseball so different?  Or is it?  The blame the front office attitude at TD may be incorrect (about this subject, not in general).

[USAFChief]

Nm

 

[Jocko87]

36 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

It's because the front office prioritizes certain aspects of player profiles. Derek Falvey's drafting and development history values taking walks and hitting home runs. Those profiles almost always come with enormous amounts of swing and miss in their game, and Falvey's drafts haven't produced much in the way of results at the MLB level for the Twins. Falvey created the roster the coaches are working with.
 

This makes no sense. Why are players having completely different issues and performances from career norms?

[$tryf4Life]

1000% yes.

 

results matter. 
 

 

[USAFChief]

56 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm on the record many times saying I don't think coaches/managers at the major league level have a dramatic impact on player performance. It's nearly entirely skill with a couple tweaks here and there to give a slight, almost unnoticeable boost. So I don't care at all who they have in those positions.

The reason I'm not going to call for any coaches/the manager's heads is because they'll just be replaced by people with the same philosophies. Nothing changes if the FO doesn't change. They wouldn't say "oh, Rocco didn't work out so let's bring in a no analytics guy who's not going to use platoons and will have starters go 7 every night followed by a pen that is full of guys who only throw certain innings instead of matchup based appearances." They'd bring in Rocco 2.0.

The FO wouldn't say "dang, these hitting coaches didn't work out so let's bring in a slap hitting staff to have everyone start hitting the ball the other way and not try to hit the ball hard, in the air, to the pull side." They'd bring in Popkins, et al 2.0. 

These are FO philosophies. If the goal is to change the overall approach of the team you have to start at the top with the guys dictating the approach. A FO who believes in the current approach isn't going to hire people who preach a different approach.

Ignoring the "coaches/managers don't matter" which os lunacy ...

The issue to me seems execution of the offensive philoosophy.

A new set of  coaches, even implementing the same philosophy, may be better at it. Actually...successful. 

 

[nicksaviking]

35 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I think we could potentially see a coaching change, but if we do, it'll signal Falvey is feeling a lot of heat. I'm not particularly concerned about the hitters even though they're scuffling badly right now.

I am concerned about Baldelli's lineup selection process and the roster construction. If the Twins miss the playoffs or get swept out again, I have no doubt there will be a new GM running the show by November.

I think fair or not to the current manager, a change often is the kick in the pants the players need. However, Baldelli was extended through the 2025 season, and after this past offseason, I don't see Joe Pohald willingly pay two managers.

I'm happy replacing Levine too. I really don't care for his roster decisions and low ceiling free agent choices.

I also assume this hitting method of taking two strikes before swinging is more on the organization than the hitting coach, but possibly it was the hitting coach's idea. It didn't show up until they hired Popkins; he may have sold the team on it. If it's a chicken or the egg scenario, I'm all for cracking the egg if for no other reason than to see what spills out of it.

[nicksaviking]

1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

Ignoring the "coaches/managers don't matter" which os lunacy ...

The issue to me seems execution of the offensive philoosophy.

A new set of  coaches, even implementing the same philosophy, may be better at it. Actually...successful. 

 

Yeah, and the firing-the-boss technique has long been used as a motivating factor for the employees.

Change often works, even when there is no supporting data to explain why. 

[bean5302]

8 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

...I'm happy replacing Levine too. I really don't care for his roster decisions and low ceiling free agent choices...

I actually don't have a clue what Levine actually does. A real "What would you say.... you do here???" Office Space, Tom Smykowski situation. Evidently, whatever Levine does, it's not particularly impressive as Boston didn't even want to talk to him for a second round of interviews.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm on the record many times saying I don't think coaches/managers at the major league level have a dramatic impact on player performance. It's nearly entirely skill with a couple tweaks here and there to give a slight, almost unnoticeable boost. So I don't care at all who they have in those positions.

The reason I'm not going to call for any coaches/the manager's heads is because they'll just be replaced by people with the same philosophies. Nothing changes if the FO doesn't change. They wouldn't say "oh, Rocco didn't work out so let's bring in a no analytics guy who's not going to use platoons and will have starters go 7 every night followed by a pen that is full of guys who only throw certain innings instead of matchup based appearances." They'd bring in Rocco 2.0.

The FO wouldn't say "dang, these hitting coaches didn't work out so let's bring in a slap hitting staff to have everyone start hitting the ball the other way and not try to hit the ball hard, in the air, to the pull side." They'd bring in Popkins, et al 2.0. 

These are FO philosophies. If the goal is to change the overall approach of the team you have to start at the top with the guys dictating the approach. A FO who believes in the current approach isn't going to hire people who preach a different approach.

Once in a while, a coaching change makes a little difference, but often it winds up to be a big nothing, even though the change creates the illusion that you are “doing something.”

Also, it’s not like that many front offices/coaching staffs have a completely different outlook than Baldelli/Popkins, et al.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, Heistyman said:

You had to go back 30+ years to find the exception.....not very comforting.  

I actually only went to look at the WS years, but you might be right. I didn’t check 1992-2023.   On the other hand, it is hardly unheard of for teams to recover from a poor start like this.  It’s better not to have to do that, but the sky is not falling at this point. 

[bean5302]

17 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

This makes no sense. Why are players having completely different issues and performances from career norms?

They're not. I'm not sure where you get the opinion Twins hitters are somehow different than they've historically been?
Complaint, low average. Yep. That's typical of the Twins' hitters over their career. 
Complaint, lots of strikeouts. Yep. That's typical of the Twins' hitters over their career.
Complaint, streaky/LOB. Yep. That's typical of the Twins' hitters over their career. (naturally goes with the first two)

The home runs haven't been showing up. That's the only difference, but things would look a lot like last year if you swapped Wallner/Margot with Gallo for the month of April. The Twins would suddenly be middle of the pack for HRs. All it takes is one Twins hitter on a hot streak to skew numbers.