Guardians 3, Twins 1: A Big Zone Extends a Cold Spring

[John Bonnes]

It was alternately warm and sunny or shady and cold at Target Field on Saturday afternoon. The Twins mirrored the weather, getting good pitching and plenty of baserunners, but also swinging ice-cold bats. The result was another frustrating loss to a division rival.

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

Box Score
SP: Joe Ryan - 6 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 6 K (90 pitches, 67 strikes (74%))
HR: none
Bottom 3 WPA:  Carlos Santana (-.124), Ryan Jeffers (-.118), Byron Buxton & Willi Castro (-.109)

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

One Big Mistake
The Guardians scored three runs against the Twins on Thursday by stringing together a bunch of opposite-field bloopers. They were more efficient on Saturday when David Fry drove one bad pitch from Joe Ryan over the left field wall for a three-run bomb. 

It was pretty clearly a mistake pitch. Ryan pitched a strong six innings in a tidy 90 pitches, giving up five hits, walking none, and striking out seven. He can be prone to giving up home runs because he works his fastball high in the zone. That can gather strikeouts but can also result in fly balls that carry over the fence.

But this was not a fastball. It was a sweeper to a right-handed batter that is supposed to end up outside the strike zone. It did not: 

"I think Joe was phenomenal," manager Rocco Baldelli said after the game. He made a pitch to Fry that was not a pitch he wants to make for numerous reasons. He made it and we paid for it. He knows it. But honestly, what a good outing for him."

A Big Zone Leads to Daytime Fireworks
The Twins only managed two hits in the game, but had 10 other baserunners due to walks and being hit by pitches. So one might think the strike zone favored them.

It did not. In fact, Twins hitting coach David Popovich was thrown out of the ballgame following the fourth inning for arguing balls and strikes. The Twins battled an expanded strike zone all game from home plate umpire Brennan Miller, but his generosity reached its peak in the bottom of the fourth inning with Matt Wallner at the plate. 

Pitcher Nick Sandlin started Wallner with some sliders down and in, which were called balls. After a 2-0 pitch that ended in the dirt, Wallner had a 3-0 count and dutifully took a fastball down the middle for the first strike. Nick Sandlin followed that with two more sliders low and inside, and Wallner took both, but this time for strikes. 

Wallner was furious and it was a little bit surprising he walked away without getting tossed. Popovich continued Wallner’s lobbying from the dugout and was tossed, and Baldelli continued the discussion, but returned to the dugout after making his point.

Both the Twins'  aggressiveness and their patience worked against them in several big at-bats. Their last big chance to score was the bottom of the sixth, when they had the bases loaded with one out. But Jeffers fell into an 0-1 hole swinging away and struck out on four pitches. Then Willi Castro fell into an 0-1 hole - on a questionable called strike, no less - and also struck out on four pitches, trying to recover from that early hole. It's not clear and of the pitches Castro saw were strikes.

The Edouard Julien Experience
The Edouard Julien Experience (EJX) may not be as much fun as we hoped. It feels odd to say that, given that he hit a home run as recently as Thursday, but Julien struck out two more times today, for a total of five times in the last two games, and all of them have been looking. 

On the other hand, he also drew two walks today, drove a ball to deep left field in the ninth, and, of course, hit that home run Thursday. So that’s a .300 on-base percentage over those two games and a .500 slugging, good for an 800 OPS. But it has not been very fun to watch. 

 

Kirilloff Kruising
The Twins' best news so far this season has been Alex Kirilloff's bat. Entering the game with an 1122 OPS on 25 plate appearances, Kirilloff went 1-4 with a walk and hit his third triple in three games. 

On the other hand, he has yet to score as a result of any of those triples. Wednesday and Thursday, he was stranded there despite reaching third with one out. In today’s game, Buxton made contact on a similar play, but it was directly at the shortstop and Kirilloff was thrown out at home plate. 

Twenty-five plate appearances do not a career make, and Twins fans have seen similar stretches from Kirilloff in the past. Just last year, he had a stretch in late June and early July where he exceeded a 1000 OPS for nearly a month. A week later, he went on the injured list,

That is also a trend with which Twins fans are familiar. After being considered a top prospect who could be a middle-of-the-order presence for years to come, he’s been plagued by injuries. Primarily, it was a wrist injury that lasted two years and finally resulted in surgery that shaved bone. 

Then, last year, he suffered a shoulder injury. Rather than undergo midseason surgery, he tried to rehab it and play through it, and had a reasonable year, all things considered. He did undergo the surgery in the offseason, and fortunately, no labrum tear was discovered. So is he all set to become the player we thought he was back in 2020, when the 22-year-old made his MLB debut in a postseason game versus the Astros?

Choose your narrative. You can choose to believe that he’s a player who finally overcame one chronic injury and, after being delayed by another small injury, is exactly who we expected three years ago. Or you can believe he’s a mediocre hitter who runs hot just often enough to tease. Or that he’s an exceptional hitter who just can’t stay healthy, so it’s just a matter of time. 

I don't know the answer. Kirilloff might not yet, either. That’s the beauty of baseball - it’s always a story that is in the process of being written. 

What’s Next?
The Twins will try to salvage the last game of the series Sunday afternoon. Bailey Ober (54.00 ERA) will try to bounce back from the worst start of his career against the Guardians’ Tristan McKenzie (10.80 ERA), who also had a shaky first start. 

But hold those tickets. There is a forecast for rain all day, and Cleveland is scheduled to return for a weekend series August 9-11. Plus, both teams have no games on August 8th. Also, Monday is the Guardians' home opener, and there are also travel concerns given the eclipse Monday afternoon. So the threshold for “banging” that game might be pretty low. Stay tuned.

Postgame Interviews

 

 

 

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

	WED	THUR	FRI	SAT	SUN	TOT
Funderburk	0	39	0	0	0	39
Duarte	25	0	0	0	0	25
Sands	0	22	0	0	0	22
Alcala	0	0	0	25	0	25
Jackson	0	0	0	20	0	20
Okert	20	0	0	0	0	20
Jax	18	0	0	0	0	18
Stewart	17	0	0	0	0	17

If the game is played tomorrow the Twins should still have most of their arms available, though they may need to get through some high-leverage middle innings without Jorge Alcala, who has been pushed into that role a few times. 

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[Aggies7]

Just a continuation of a horrible spring training. Hoping it will get better because it got better last year is all we’ve got. Unfortunately the division seems to be more competitive (low bar) and the lineup didn’t improve. 0-20 something with RISP is offensive malpractice.

[D.C Twins]

I'm worried most about Wallner.... He has shown nothing throughout Spring training and now the regular season.

If the league has adjusted to him, I hope he can make his own adjustments..... and soon. 

[Einheri]

Games we needed to win.  Oh, well… hopefully they can grab tomorrow's game and then somehow be amazing against the Dodgers and Tigers.

[bean5302]

7 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

I'm worried most about Wallner.... He has shown nothing throughout Spring training and now the regular season.

If the league has adjusted to him, I hope he can make his own adjustments..... and soon. 

Wallner would be better if balls weren't called strikes. He'll be fine.

Not sure why people are all bent out of shape about it. Jeffers, Castro, Julien, Santana, Farmer, Margot, Vazquez, and Martin are all worse OPS wise to start this year.

[rhal]

What makes the Twins think we want to watch hitters who strike out 29 times in 2 games? Absolutely tortuous baseball that turns any fan off to another entertainment option. The hitting coach should either be sacrificed at a stake of bats or sent back to remedial hitting 101. I simply can’t watch a game like that. Definitely won’t be paying to go see one. 

[mikelink45]

All spring I wondered why our regulars were pulled after two ABs for scrubs.  Maybe they could have had a few more meaningful ABs to get their timing before the regular season.

[Aggies7]

11 minutes ago, rhal said:

What makes the Twins think we want to watch hitters who strike out 29 times in 2 games? Absolutely tortuous baseball that turns any fan off to another entertainment option. The hitting coach should either be sacrificed at a stake of bats or sent back to remedial hitting 101. I simply can’t watch a game like that. Definitely won’t be paying to go see one. 

The playoff wins last year saved a job or two for people who might otherwise have been shown the door. IMO

[D.C Twins]

15 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Wallner would be better if balls weren't called strikes. He'll be fine.

Not sure why people are all bent out of shape about it. Jeffers, Castro, Julien, Santana, Farmer, Margot, Vazquez, and Martin are all worse OPS wise to start this year.

I'm not so sure... his struggles go well beyond just this game....but I hope you are right!

[Karbo]

If anyone who watched this game doesn't agree that something needs to change with calling balls and strikes, I would have to think they are either Cleveland fans or blind.

[Guest]

Saw this graphic and thought, hey that’s the pitch that Julien, Santana, Wallllllner, and Castro struck out on.

Agree with mikelink45, maybe they should have used spring training to GET READY for the season.

[Aggies7]

6 minutes ago, Karbo said:

If anyone who watched this game doesn't agree that something needs to change with calling balls and strikes, I would have to think they are either Cleveland fans or blind.

You’re not wrong, but when a team hands you 7 walks, 3 HBP and an error for good measure, and you still can only score one run…..hard to put too much on the umpire

[Guest]

Saw this graphic and thought, hey that’s the pitch that Julien, Santana, Wallllllner, and Castro struck out on.

Agree with mikelink45, maybe they should have used spring training to GET READY for the season.

[TwinkieFan4life]

28 minutes ago, rhal said:

What makes the Twins think we want to watch hitters who strike out 29 times in 2 games? Absolutely tortuous baseball that turns any fan off to another entertainment option. The hitting coach should either be sacrificed at a stake of bats or sent back to remedial hitting 101. I simply can’t watch a game like that. Definitely won’t be paying to go see one. 

Maybe the TV deal was strategy.  Make it financially prohibitive to watch the team, forcing us to follow the team through highlights only.  This makes the collective approach of striking out at historic rates chasing power more palatable to the average fan than actually trying to endure full games.  Thanks for looking out for us Twins front office!!

[Guest]

Or maybe we all got it wrong. Maybe the front office knew how miserable, how unwatchable, how anemic this line up was going to be and that is why they went back to cable so fewer people would see this. Well let me just say, Thank You!

[Eris]

Guardians had 6 hitters with an OPS above 700. The Twins in contrast had 2 hitters above that OPS. Not going to win many games like that. 

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, rhal said:

What makes the Twins think we want to watch hitters who strike out 29 times in 2 games? Absolutely tortuous baseball that turns any fan off to another entertainment option. The hitting coach should either be sacrificed at a stake of bats or sent back to remedial hitting 101. I simply can’t watch a game like that. Definitely won’t be paying to go see one. 

I am just as frustrated as you are but IMO the problem isn't the hitting coach, he's just doing what he's told to do. It's the "all or nothing" approach that the Twins have adapted.

[Linus]

My mother in law called to find out if she could watch the game. With her cable package she couldn’t watch and was mad about it. I told her not to worry about it and work in the garden - you’ll be happier. 

[IndyTwinsFan]

3 hours ago, Einheri said:

Games we needed to win.  Oh, well… hopefully they can grab tomorrow's game and then somehow be amazing against the Dodgers and Tigers.

Like your optimism, but I'm not anticipating anything "amazing" in the next two series, especially from the so-called offense, which has become extremely offensive most of the season thus far.

[NotAboutWinning]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

I am just as frustrated as you are but IMO the problem isn't the hitting coach, he's just doing what he's told to do. It's the "all or nothing" approach that the Twins have adapted.

It may not be a straightforward as changing the coaching. The FO built a team for the “all or nothing” approach. Asking them to change to a contact approach may be the equivalent of using NASCAR stock cars in a Formula 1 race.

[h2oface]

They practiced losing in ST. They didn't mean to, but it became the habit. It doesn't matter was the mantra. These games don't count. So many vets didn't get at bats, or take at bats. They have their "process". Well........... it didn't get many of them ready. The games are telling. 7 walks, 3 hit batters, an error -=- 11 extra base runners, and they scored all of one run. And they just keep striking out. With no home runs. All the announcers say anymore was the speed the ball is hit. That is pretty pathetic.

[jkcarew]

43 minutes ago, NotAboutWinning said:

It may not be a straightforward as changing the coaching. The FO built a team for the “all or nothing” approach. Asking them to change to a contact approach may be the equivalent of using NASCAR stock cars in a Formula 1 race.

Exactly. You can’t ask guys to do something at the major league level…like cut down their swings with 2 strikes and RiSP, and/or hitting the ball the other way…when they’ve never done those things during the entire coarse of their development (certainly not in the Twins system)…and then be surprised when they can’t do it.

Better off hoping the power shows back up. FWIW, the K rate is actually slightly down from last year (although still near the ‘top’). The difference is the almost total lack of power. Currently have the LOWEST HR% in the majors. Last year, they had one of the highest. There is nothing, absolutely nothing, this group is capable of that will make that work.

7 games. The worm will turn. Right?

 

[Fezig]

There was a shortstop years ago that was highly heralded. He struggled early in his first season and kept listening to everyone about how making this change or that change would change his luck. Finally someone gave his the best advice he could have, which was essentially, stop thinking about what you're doing and do what got you here. He won rookie of the year beating an up-and-coming first baseman for the Twins. His name was Cal Ripken. The point is, the players on this roster need to stop doing what the manager is telling them to do and just start hitting the ball like they did on the way up to the majors.

 

[Peter]

Still have hope but not much after these last 2 games. Inexcusable!!! Let’s face it won’t be la and hope tomorrow is rained out. We will be 3-7 going into Detroit. At this rate it’s hard to get excited about the twins. Have bad feeling this is 4th/5th place team with 90+ losses. 

[Karbo]

9 hours ago, Aggies7 said:

You’re not wrong, but when a team hands you 7 walks, 3 HBP and an error for good measure, and you still can only score one run…..hard to put too much on the umpire

I'm not blaming the loss on the umps at all. The team isn't hitting well, especially with runners on. But the strike zone that guy was calling was so bad, and so much in favor of the Guardians. I really don't recall any time lately any ump calling so much of different zone from one team to another.

[bighat]

13 hours ago, rhal said:

What makes the Twins think we want to watch hitters who strike out 29 times in 2 games? Absolutely tortuous baseball that turns any fan off to another entertainment option.  

I am completely with you and so is MLB - which is why they instituted a pitch clock and bigger bases, making it easier and more encouraging for teams to put the ball in play. 

The Twins for whatever reason haven't embraced "making contact" as a strategy. "Close your eyes and swing as hard as you can" has been the mantra since the juiced-ball year of 2019 and today this team is impossible to watch. 

Getting swept by Cleveland at home with your 3 best pitchers on the mound while striking out 50% of the ABs is not going to win you any casual fans - and die hard fans like those who post here have a right to be disappointed and frustrated. 

Unwatchable baseball. It was like this for about 2/3 of last year, too. 

[mikelink45]

After reading all the comments I have to say - the electronic strike zone is the most consistent regardless of a weakness,

[Whitey333]

Well I agree the home plate umpire yesterday was terrible!  For a while there I though it must have been Angel Hernandez because no one is worse then him.  But I was wrong.  He so much added to the frustration of another non productive day at the park.  But it's OK.  Remember these games in April don't count lol.  A previous poster was right.  This is the way they played fir 2/3 of season last year.  It's despicable.  Pitching has been pretty decent but the team as a whole has been very flat.  Just like their flat spring training.  Oh that's right spring training doesn't matter either, I keep forgetting.  But at least the poor umpiring was enable for Morneau to start with excuses early and frequently throughout the game about why the Twins offense could do nothing.  Otherwise he wouldn't have had much to talk about.

[JD-TWINS]

15 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

I'm worried most about Wallner.... He has shown nothing throughout Spring training and now the regular season.

If the league has adjusted to him, I hope he can make his own adjustments..... and soon. 

Unfortunately, he doesn’t seem to hit anything anywhere in the zone……….walking &/or getting hit by pitch seems to be his only threat at this point. Had high hopes - still do. I just don’t think there has been any major adjustment by pitchers - he swings through essentially everything.

Terrible time for Larnach to be hurt and probably weeks away as a sub to let Wallner warm up in St. Paul.

[hitterscount]

20 hours ago, h2oface said:

They practiced losing in ST. They didn't mean to, but it became the habit. It doesn't matter was the mantra. These games don't count. So many vets didn't get at bats, or take at bats. They have their "process". Well........... it didn't get many of them ready. The games are telling. 7 walks, 3 hit batters, an error -=- 11 extra base runners, and they scored all of one run. And they just keep striking out. With no home runs. All the announcers say anymore was the speed the ball is hit. That is pretty pathetic.

Listening to the game a little yesterday... this team is so bad at making contact I swear a call was made on a swing and miss that it was described as a nice-looking swing. A swing and miss and we are to the point where good looking swings is all we can expect. This approach is a joke, it is not good baseball, we do not have the power hitter's management think we have. There are many other ways to score runs... it starts with playing sound fundamental baseball and making contact. 

Edited April 7, 2024 by hitterscount
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