3 Post-Hype Prospects Attempting to Return to the Twins' Long-Term Plans

[Cody Christie]

The Twins must rely on depth at multiple positions to stay in contention during the 2024 season. Here are three names who were previously part of the team’s long-term plans before injuries derailed their path.

Image courtesy of Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

Fans can be excited when a top prospect reaches the majors and has high success. However, there can be growing pains as the league adjusts to a player, which is only heightened when a player attempts to play through injuries. Each of the trio below has a different focus for the 2024 season, but they all need to prove they are healthy to work their way back into the team’s long-term plans. 

Alex Kirilloff, 1B/DH
High Point (May 2023): .314/.448/.486 (.934), 3 2B, 3 HR
Minnesota felt worried enough about Kirilloff’s injury history to bring in Carlos Santana, with the team planning for the veteran to get most of the starts at first base. In October, Kirilloff had shoulder surgery, but there was no tear to his labrum, so doctors were able to use a less invasive surgery. Kirilloff was considered one of the best pure-hitting prospects to come through the Twins organization in quite some time. He’s shown flashes of that hitting ability, but injuries have far too often impacted his overall career numbers. Last May, Kirilloff carried the team’s offense with a 167 wRC+ and a 7.1 Offense Above Average. The team might be planning on him playing more DH this season, but there is no question that his hitting profile can change the line-up’s entire dynamic. 

José Miranda, 1B/DH
High Point (July 2022): .353/.405/.603 (1.008), 2 2B, 5 HR
Unlike Kirilloff, Miranda isn’t projected to make the Twins’ Opening Day roster, so he must hit his way back to the big leagues in St. Paul. Like Kirilloff, Miranda had offseason shoulder surgery with his procedure removing scar tissue from his right labrum and rotator cuff. Early in camp, he was limited to designated hitter duties, but he is starting to get some work in at first base, a position with which he is less familiar. Hopes were high for Miranda entering the 2023 season after he posted a 114 OPS+ with 25 doubles and 15 home runs during a tremendous rookie campaign. His shoulder bothered him throughout the 2023 season, and he struggled to hit .211/.263/.303 (.566) with seven extra-base hits in 40 games. The offensive bar is higher at first base/DH than at third base, so he must prove he can hit like he did in 2022. 

Jorge Alcalá, RP
High Point (Sept/Oct 2021): 0.71 ERA, 0.55 WHIP, 15 K, .309 OPS, 12 2/3 IP
Few fans get overly excited about a pitching prospect heading for a bullpen role, but Alcalá has shown brief stints of what he can mean to the team’s relief core. During spring training, he has been hitting in the upper 90s with his fastball, which is an encouraging sign for the reliever who has battled injuries over the last two seasons. In 2021, it looked like Alcalá might be entering the team’s long-term bullpen plans, but elbow and forearm issues have held him to 19 2/3 innings over the last two seasons. To return to the big leagues, he must show he can better control the strike zone and use his offspeed pitches more effectively. Alcalá can be a late-inning weapon now that his health concerns are behind him. 

Each of these players seems destined for a long-term role with the club, but their futures have been clouded because of recent injuries. There are specific roles each can fill for the Twins in 2024, and that will help reestablish some of the luster that has worn off in recent years. Returning to their high point might be out of the question, but Minnesota needs the depth these players provide. 

Which player is a more significant part of the team’s long-term plans? Who provides the team with the most value in 2024? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

View full article

[Karbo]

IMO AK gets more time in the lineup for now, at least until he gets hurt, or Santana flops. Miranda is the other half of a 1st base platoon if somethin happens with Santana. Alcala may start in AAA and show he's healthy and ready, until one of the questionable relievers signed in the off season either flops or gets hurt.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

It is really difficult to know what to do with players whose path was once that of a major league starter or even star but who has fallen to the point of possibly not being in the team’s (or any team’s) future.  When at least part of the issue is tied to health/injury issues, it becomes even more difficult.  If they can come back and duplicate their best early numbers, they are stars, but they can’t seem to show that it’s possible.  It’s a conundrum for the player, the team, and the fans. 

I have the most faith in Kirilloff returning to form, since his latest injury seems to have been more minor and he has had the most recent success.  I’m less sure about Miranda and I’ve learned to never bank on a pitcher (Alcala) having any predetermined production.  The good news is that the Twins are mostly insulated against poor production from any of these players.  Two will be at St. Paul, and one has lost much of his starting spot to Carlos Santana.  Even Kiriloff’s supposed landing spot at DH can be covered by other players, possibly even another top prospect who has fallen from favor in Trevor Larnach.  

[jmlease1]

Kirilloff is the one most likely to have the biggest impact: he's on the 26-man roster from day 1, and if he can stay healthy he's already shown he can be an impact bat. I think he's still in the twins long-term plans, but they're going to keep hedging against him until he shows he can stay healthy.

Alcala will almost certainly get another big chance this year; I think he's already in the Twins short-to-midterm plans as a middle reliever/set-up guy...but I also think they look at most relievers as being somewhat fungible and don't expect to have a reliever as a core piece for more than a few years.

Miranda is the one who has the toughest road. He doesn't have a clear position, he still looks like he's getting past the injury, and he has other players of a similar age that have jumped past him, while also having guys from the minors pushing as well. Hard to see him back at 3B, almost no chance he's in the mix at 2B (which was his preferred position), so he'll need to find his way at 1B, where he could be a fine platoon partner for another guy on this list going forward, but he'll have to hit.

I think Kirilloff and Alcala are in the Twins plans right now, but they're not being counted on as core performers like they were previously thought to be or projected to be. One of the best abilities you can have in sports is availability. All three of these guys have come up short there.

 

[roger]

Will join the above with the opinion that AK is the most important to the Twins.  Should the Twins be so fortunate as to have good health from Buxton, Correa, Lewis and Julien, one more big season at the plate from the duo you mention above makes their lineup tough, like real tough.

My vote goes to AK, however, I suspect he is going to spend much of his time on the field out in left field.  I have concerns about both Wallner and Larnach and see Miranda possibly making the opening day roster with both of the other left fielders starting in St. Paul.  I know there are a lot of you out there who are sold on Wallner becomming a star, I am not with you.  AK in left would open up a nice platoon at first for Santana and Miranda, who just might remind us of the batter we saw in 2022.

[stringer bell]

I haven’t given up on any of these guys, but injuries have blocked their progress and perhaps limited their upsides. 
 

I thought it was interesting that the Twins added an inexpensive team option to Alcalá’s 2024 contract. If he can perform and avoid the IL, he’ll be a key piece in 2025. Alcalá looks like he’s on the outside looking in for an Opening Day spot, but if he’s healthy he’ll get his shot this year. 
 

Kirilloff’s pretty extensive injury history and lackluster postseason seem to leave people forgetting that he was hitting in the middle of the order for a playoff team last year at age 25. He will have this season to stake a claim as a regular and I hope he succeeds. 
 

Miranda has moved down the defensive spectrum rapidly, but hitting has always been his strong suit. If he can hit like he did in midseason of 2022, he will be in the big leagues soon and stay. I’m not sure if that run will come with the Twins. 

[stringer bell]

11 minutes ago, roger said:

Will join the above with the opinion that AK is the most important to the Twins.  Should the Twins be so fortunate as to have good health from Buxton, Correa, Lewis and Julien, one more big season at the plate from the duo you mention above makes their lineup tough, like real tough.

My vote goes to AK, however, I suspect he is going to spend much of his time on the field out in left field.  I have concerns about both Wallner and Larnach and see Miranda possibly making the opening day roster with both of the other left fielders starting in St. Paul.  I know there are a lot of you out there who are sold on Wallner becomming a star, I am not with you.  AK in left would open up a nice platoon at first for Santana and Miranda, who just might remind us of the batter we saw in 2022.

I don’t think we can make a judgment on Wallner from Spring Training, nor should we. If Wallner struggles in April, the scenario you foresee could very well happen. It’s probably the best path for Miranda to make it back to the Twins. 

[jmlease1]

32 minutes ago, roger said:

Will join the above with the opinion that AK is the most important to the Twins.  Should the Twins be so fortunate as to have good health from Buxton, Correa, Lewis and Julien, one more big season at the plate from the duo you mention above makes their lineup tough, like real tough.

My vote goes to AK, however, I suspect he is going to spend much of his time on the field out in left field.  I have concerns about both Wallner and Larnach and see Miranda possibly making the opening day roster with both of the other left fielders starting in St. Paul.  I know there are a lot of you out there who are sold on Wallner becomming a star, I am not with you.  AK in left would open up a nice platoon at first for Santana and Miranda, who just might remind us of the batter we saw in 2022.

Except that Miranda hits RH and while Santana switch-hits, he's much better against LHP at this point. So it's not really a good platoon fit.

I still like Miranda and hope that he can get past the shoulder troubles and be an impact bat. If he does, he could be a nice platoon partner for Kirilloff at 1B next season when Santana moves on, or even in this season if Santana is cooked/gets hurt. But he's not really a fit to platoon with Santana.

[Doctor Gast]

Miranda had the best chance until they signed Santana, although his 3B days should be behind him. But now his only hope is that Santana gets hurt because they'll stick with Santana even when he falters. Kiriloff is a great hitter, we need his bat in the lineup and hope his injuries are behind him. I'm rooting for Alcala. Right now injuries isn't Larnach's biggest problem, it's the curve. Once he figures it out he'll have to wait if Wallner or Kepler falters.

[jkcarew]

The door is wide open for AK and Alcala. Miranda will need to wait for injuries or big failures…seems to be swinging it nice in ST, though.

[roger]

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Except that Miranda hits RH and while Santana switch-hits, he's much better against LHP at this point. So it's not really a good platoon fit.

I still like Miranda and hope that he can get past the shoulder troubles and be an impact bat. If he does, he could be a nice platoon partner for Kirilloff at 1B next season when Santana moves on, or even in this season if Santana is cooked/gets hurt. But he's not really a fit to platoon with Santana.

Thanks for reminding me of Santana's strengths, or weakness.  Yes, does make more sense in 2025, when Jenkins or ERod could be ready for prime time.  My hope remains that Miranda has a big spring and forces himself onto the opening day roster.  Then follow that up with a season better than 2022.

[bean5302]

Some of the possible roster decision players for 26 man.
Spring Training OPS, wRC+, BB%, K%
Miranda RHB = 1.072, +198, 13.3%, 20.0% (1 option)
Larnach LHB = 1.011, +167, 10.0%, 30.0%, (1 option)
Martin RHB = .679, +93, 9.1%, 27.3% (3 options)
Kirilloff LHB = .641, +66, 4.2%, 20.8% (1 option)
Goodrum RHB = .421, +34, 22.2%, 27.8% (Non-Roster, 2 Options)
Wallner LHB = .345, +7, 13.6%, 31.8% (2 options)
Severino SHB = .054, -71, 0.0%, 53.8% (3 options)

Not that Spring Training stats usually have a big impact on team decisions, but just for the sake of curiosity.

[Trov]

I would add SWR to the list.  Although he only had one start at MLB level last year, his poor first half really knocked off the hyped prospect.  I think he still has huge upside but many wrote him off after his first half last year. 

[DocBauer]

Despite what turned out to be a mild shoulder injury to end his 2023 on a downer note, the key, IMO, for Kirilloff has ALWAYS been the wrist issue, which seems to have been solved FINALLY via his last surgery. He was brought along a little slowly last season to give him ample time to ramp up and make sure his wrist was strong. When he came back, he hit at the top of the order almost daily, primarily in the 3 spot,  but with a mix at the 2 and 4 spots as well. He hit, and he flashed power and production. He also appeared to be a more mature hitter in that he was suddenly walking at a higher rate than previous seasons. Unless SOMETHING ELSE happens, I'm expecting/hoping he has the best ML season of his career this year, and I believe he's a fixture for the next few years in the lineup. The guy can flat out hit.

In 2021 Alcala was OK the first half of the year, but a bit of a tease. He'd flash, but then not look so good his next time out,  or the 2nd inning in the same game appearance. A fair amount of that was LH batters. His second half of the season he seemed to really develop his change. And the results were pretty dramatic. His second half ERA dropped almost 2 full points. His AVERAGE-AGAINST and OBP dropped about 50 points each. And his SLG and OPS dropped about 180 and 206 points respectively. That's why there was a ton of optimism for him for 2022 and beyond. Now, does that mean he would maintain that kind of newly found success against the opposition? No. But it really looked like he was turning in to a valuable part of the pen, even a potential set up man. Cue 2years of injuries and missed opportunity. But now he's healthy and throwing high 90's again? I can't help but have a lot of optimism for him at this point.

I'm hopeful for Miranda, though I agree he has the hardest fit with the team, at least for now. They key to Miranda when he was in the minors was STILL making contact, but to ignore weak contact and wait for loud contact opportunities. In 2021 he did that and made himself a top prospect. During his rookie 2022 season, for the most part, he maintained that approach and was very successful and teased for more in the future. Last season, with a bad shoulder, loss of strength,  and maybe even some frustration and desperation, the loud contact disappeared and he started nubbing  and popping out on every high and outside pitch he saw, bringing back the weak contact he was too often looking for in his early prospect days. In limited action so far this spring, it really is starting to look like the 2021-2022 Miranda is back, or on his way to being so. Unfortunately, his path to playing time right now is blocked by the veteran Santana. IDK, maybe Miranda gets  all the way back and becomes a very nice trade chip to someone else, obviously after getting some quality ML time. Maybe  he split his season between St Paul and the Twins and takes over for Santana in 2025...if not before...as a RH 1B/DH/PH who you could still sneak in at 3B here and there during the season. If he hits like he's shown he can...if not better...the Twins will find  room for him. It's a little hard to answer WHEN, but they'll find room for him. OR, he might be on his way as part of a deal at some point. 

[Doctor Wu]

17 hours ago, Trov said:

I would add SWR to the list.  Although he only had one start at MLB level last year, his poor first half really knocked off the hyped prospect.  I think he still has huge upside but many wrote him off after his first half last year. 

I'm still optimistic about Woods-Richardson too,, and even though it's the usual small sample size, he's looked good so far in spring training, and supposedly his fastball is faster this year too. 

[Doctor Wu]

Another article with a mysterious, uncredited photo. I assume it's Miranda ... or is it Kiriloff? It certainly ain't Alcala, unless the Twins plan on using him as a pinch-hitter. 

[Jeff K]

21 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Kirilloff is the one most likely to have the biggest impact: he's on the 26-man roster from day 1, and if he can stay healthy he's already shown he can be an impact bat. I think he's still in the twins long-term plans, but they're going to keep hedging against him until he shows he can stay healthy.

Alcala will almost certainly get another big chance this year; I think he's already in the Twins short-to-midterm plans as a middle reliever/set-up guy...but I also think they look at most relievers as being somewhat fungible and don't expect to have a reliever as a core piece for more than a few years.

Miranda is the one who has the toughest road. He doesn't have a clear position, he still looks like he's getting past the injury, and he has other players of a similar age that have jumped past him, while also having guys from the minors pushing as well. Hard to see him back at 3B, almost no chance he's in the mix at 2B (which was his preferred position), so he'll need to find his way at 1B, where he could be a fine platoon partner for another guy on this list going forward, but he'll have to hit.

I think Kirilloff and Alcala are in the Twins plans right now, but they're not being counted on as core performers like they were previously thought to be or projected to be. One of the best abilities you can have in sports is availability. All three of these guys have come up short there.

 

If Miranda continues to hit and shows well in St. Paul, he could be part of a trade package.  Of course, if Santana or Kirilloff go down with injury then that is a different story.

[JD-TWINS]

22 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I don’t think we can make a judgment on Wallner from Spring Training, nor should we. If Wallner struggles in April, the scenario you foresee could very well happen. It’s probably the best path for Miranda to make it back to the Twins. 

Don’t see Miranda in Minneapolis unless Santana (RH hitting platoon guy) gets hurt. Santana almost always posts. Hasn’t missed any significant time since ‘14.

[JD-TWINS]

Kirilloff hit .270 last year and was semi-healthy. If he feels right (big maybe) he may improve his power & average. He had an OBP of .348 and an OPS+ of 117 in ‘23.

He can play! Just needs to stay healthy and he’s around for another handful of years.

[specialiststeve]

In the long season that MLB is.. the depth will be needed. will give him time to get his legs again. Hopefully he stays healthy. He had stud written all over him like Alex until the injury bug got him. 

[gman]

I think Kirilloff has more impact on the Twins long term plans. A middle of the order bat with very good hitting skills and high expected OPS, the Twins need all they can get. The first half last year hitting on any given game was Julian, Kirilloff and Jeffers, the veterans were not contributing much.

I hope Alcala has a good year and strings several years together. He may start at St Paul, but I hope he makes it up soon.

Miranda, is probably lowest on the totem pole for this year, but next year Santana and Kepler will probably be gone. If Kepler regresses to his usual hitting level, Miranda may be up sooner.

 

 

[Reptevia]

“Each of these players seems destined for a long-term role with the club…”.  I’m not sure ANY of these players are destined to be here long term. 

[KBJ1]

Depth is good & there is a lot to be optimistic about. But as far as I am concerned the Pressley trade for Alcala & Celestino has been a complete bust!

Pressley immediately set the Major league record for relief appearances without allowing a run, not to mention World Series wins for Houston.

Years later we are still hoping for Alcala to be healthy and learn how to pitch.

That 3 years $30M contract Houston gave Pressley turned out to be one of the best deals of the past decade.

If only........

[Melissa]

On 3/12/2024 at 6:45 AM, Doctor Wu said:

Another article with a mysterious, uncredited photo. I assume it's Miranda ... or is it Kiriloff? It certainly ain't Alcala, unless the Twins plan on using him as a pinch-hitter. 

Quoting in hopes someone at Twins Daily actually reads the comments and can address this. Have asked repeatedly since last year.