This is the Carlos Correa Minnesota Paid For

[Ted Schwerzler]

The two previous offseasons have been a whirlwind for Carlos Correa. Signing what amounted to a one-year deal and having two contracts fall through before returning to Minnesota, 2023 didn’t go as planned either. It’s now, in 2024, that the Twins are finally set to get what they paid for.

The offseason talk has been about the production lost in the rotation. How the Twins replace arms like Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and even Tyler Mahle is not straightforward. They added Anthony DeSclafani and get Chris Paddack back, but the group certainly isn’t the same. However, the best version of Carlos Correa helps to supplement the roster in a big way.

Plenty has been made about the health of Byron Buxton in recent seasons, and with good reason, but Correa coming into spring training with familiarity and a clean bill of health is equally impactful. Last season, Minnesota got 135 games out of their starting shortstop. That was just one contest shy of his 2022 mark, but it was beyond evident that it wasn’t the same player. Dealing with a nagging plantar fasciitis injury, Correa was simply a shell of himself working to remain on the field as a veteran presence.

When the dust settled, Correa produced a career-low 1.1 fWAR. Across eight full seasons (excluding 2020), the former Houston Astros shortstop had never produced a season with less than 3.4 fWAR. He put up a 4.4 fWAR tally in his debut with the Twins, and in 2021, he finished fifth in the American League MVP voting with a 6.2 fWAR. The ZiPS projection system certainly sees last season as an outlier with a 4.0 fWAR designation for 2024, and the conservative nature of those statistics means the reality could be much higher.

None of this is lost on Correa either. Speaking to reporters during his initial conversations down in Fort Myers, it’s evident he also knows there’s a difference. “It [an offseason without worrying about free agency] was great. It was so chill. I know there are a lot of free agents out there that haven’t signed yet, a lot of big names. I know what that’s like; I went through it a few years, and it’s tough. This was a great offseason for me.” Focusing on playing with his kids and connecting with his wife, Daniella, while just putting in the work was a nice change for the superstar.

It’s not just the mental aspect of not knowing where you will end up, though, for Correa. He was dealt a tough hand during the 2023 regular season while putting up with a nagging foot injury. It clearly impacted him in the field, and that could be why he posted his first negative DRS (defensive runs saved) total of his career. The strong arm has never been a question from the shortstop position, but Correa was merely average on the dirt for the first time as a big leaguer. 

With the plantar fasciitis behind him, there’s a good amount of reason to believe a defensive resurgence is in store. “It took a little longer than I expected [to go away], but I tested it running and doing the infield work. I’m very positive moving forward. It took a couple of months, but now we’re good.” Being able to come into spring training as the player he has been, and with no distractions, is something that Correa will undoubtedly sign up for.

It’s not just the player who has noticed a difference, either. Rocco Baldelli has worked with Correa for two seasons, and he has seen him deal with the mental side of free agency and uncertainty in each of those years. As a player who experienced health setbacks on his own, the manager can sympathize with what Correa has dealt with as well.

“I think it was a much easier offseason for him to focus on all the little things you need to do to get ready. We know he’s very attentive to his body and his needs, but there’s no way around the fact that he had a ton going on last winter. I think he had a good, full, solid offseason. I think he’s ready to go.” Baldelli also touched on what he saw from his starting shortstop last year, and in having experienced two different seasons from him, it’s not lost on the manager how much Correa dealt with in 2023. “You have to allow guys space to work through things. He was hurt, but until the end of the season with us in a good spot, that was the only time he was going to allow himself time to recoup. If it took him playing til the last day of the regular season for us to make the playoffs, he would’ve done that too.”

There isn’t much need to daydream about what a healthy version of Correa looks like. A glance at the back of his baseball card shows why he is among the most talented players in the game, and it’s why he has a World Series ring to show for it. Baldelli talked about Correa’s mental toughness, allowing him “the ability to still be successful at his job even if he can’t physically do a lot of what he normally would do.” Hearing sentiments like that and knowing both the player and organization see the path forward as normal should excite Twins fans to have an MVP-caliber talent back in the lineup on a regular basis.

A high level of health and availability is something that major league teams hope for across their 26-man roster. The reality is that players will get hurt throughout the season, but the goal is to manage the injuries and avoid those that are serious or to your key players. All being at their peak performance, Correa, Byron Buxton, and Royce Lewis should propel Minnesota well above any lost production from the pitching side of things.

The Twins saw Correa show out as a superstar in 2022. It’s why he was able to step away from the final two years of his contract and play for $35.1 million on a one-year deal. It’s also why he was given a six-year pact worth $200 million, and it’s why the excitement for his production to reach new heights as a 29-year-old could be among the season's biggest storylines.

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[JD-TWINS]

90% of ‘22 would be a nice bounce back year in ‘24. That’s about an fWAR of 4.0 up from 1.1 in ‘23…….your stats. This is exciting , since without serious injury, it’s nearly a given that his defense & hitting will both rebound.

A minor uptick from Buxton to Average of .235 or so (a pretty mild expectation) and 120 games played would be a boost to the Club. Buxton, with that .235 BA stumbles into 25 doubles & at least as many HR.

Royce Lewis…..15 HR & 52 RBI in 58 games in ‘23. He hit .309 in his rookie year. If he can stay at .280 and play 135 games, he cruises to 100 RBI & flirts with 30 HR. Hopefully, he’ll be healthy enough to play 145 games plus!!

These 3 can really help cary the offense through other’s ups & downs

Kirilloff - Julien - Wallner - Jeffers right behind or, more accurately, blended with these 3 guys above & the offense can really roll in ‘24!

Kepler - Farmer - Castro are all gravy in my mind.

[Doctor Gast]

What I least expect from Correa is to play good enough ball to get us to the "party". Then turn it on at the "party".

[Cornholio]

Well done. I will now be using “scuppered” in my everyday conversations.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

If he can continue to be a 4 WAR player for the next few years, he will be the player that we signed up for.  A big MVP type season would be awesome, but I think that 6.2 WAR season was an outlier.  Combine solid, consistent production with solid defense and big game leadership and he will be at the forefront of the Twins team for several years.  

[tony&rodney]

Perhaps Carlos repeats his 2021 year.

[Jocko87]

If last year was down defensively it was still quite good. It was a ton of fun to watch.

Realistically, with 8 WAR between him and Buxton this is a completely different team. I don't think that's a farfetched outcome either.

[Ted Schwerzler]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

If he can continue to be a 4 WAR player for the next few years, he will be the player that we signed up for.  A big MVP type season would be awesome, but I think that 6.2 WAR season was an outlier.  Combine solid, consistent production with solid defense and big game leadership and he will be at the forefront of the Twins team for several years.  

Agree with all of this.

Not sure the 2021 was that huge of a deviation though. He was being pained by back issues for a time with Houston. Completely healthy he definitely has MVP talent.

[Ted Schwerzler]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

If last year was down defensively it was still quite good. It was a ton of fun to watch.

Realistically, with 8 WAR between him and Buxton this is a completely different team. I don't think that's a farfetched outcome either.

I think a lot of the defensive shortcomings are a product of range, so you don't see the impact as the plays aren't being made (think Jeter).

Agree though, those two carrying this team as once expected would be a blast.

[RpR]

17 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

It’s not just the mental aspect of not knowing where you will end up, though, for Correa. He was dealt a tough hand during the 2023 regular season while putting up with a nagging foot injury. It clearly impacted him in the field, and that could be why he posted his first negative DRS (defensive runs saved) total of his career. The strong arm has never been a question from the shortstop position, but Correa was merely average on the dirt for the first time as a big leaguer. 

 

Correa has been up and down his whole career, varying from average to among the best.

This was not the first time he was average.

[Brandon]

At 29 Correa if healthy should be primed for his best season yet.  Could he hit 30 HRs?  With his foot healed, could he accumulate 10 defensive runs saved?  
This will be a fun season to watch even at 20% off payroll.  

[CRF]

Obviously, we need him to produce in the field and at the plate, but a huge part of CC's value, is what he does off the field, in the clubhouse and behind the scenes. I think he's probably the single most important and influential player we have. He does things the right way. He's a leader. In my day, we would also call him a "gamer" I love to watch him play SS, and I have absolutely no problem with his contract. I wish we had a few more guys just like him. I can easily see him going into coaching and possibly managing, when his playing career is over.

[Parfigliano]

I would be happy with a healthy foot, D-play like last year and his career average .351/.468/.820 line.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I wish C4 nothing but the best. The left side of the Twins IF has enough positive energy to make Norman Vincent Peale proud. ( For you younger fans, Norman Vincent Peale wrote "The Power of Positive Thinking"...a magnificent book.)

[tarheeltwinsfan]

11 minutes ago, CRF said:

Obviously, we need him to produce in the field and at the plate, but a huge part of CC's value, is what he does off the field, in the clubhouse and behind the scenes. I think he's probably the single most important and influential player we have. He does things the right way. He's a leader. In my day, we would also call him a "gamer" I love to watch him play SS, and I have absolutely no problem with his contract. I wish we had a few more guys just like him. I can easily see him going into coaching and possibly managing, when his playing career is over.

Amen !

[Fatbat]

So there is nothing to say that we have yet to see the best of C4.  He is healthy and dead center n his prime. He could be the guy that sets ‘24 with a winning tone and Royce and the boys will feed off of it. Put the Gidp in the rear view mirror and watch the RBI’s!  Put Buck into the waay less K’s category and this lineup is stacked. 

[jkcarew]

He really wasn’t ‘bad’ offensively last year when you look under the hood. I think the injury affected his defensive range more than anything (and probably his base running, although, I haven’t looked at that data).
 

Offensively, his BABiP took a major dive, well below his career average. When that happens, you would expect the batted ball data to at least hint at a reason….gb/fb ratio spike, softer ev, and/or less consistent line drive %, pulling more, etc. Non of that happened. EV actually ticked up from 2022. Meanwhile the whiff and K rates really didn’t change much either. And it kinda meets the eye ball test…seems a ton of ground ball hit relatively well, right at someone, and it seemed like every line drive was caught. Until the playoffs.

[minman1982]

While I am excited for the upcoming season, there are a lot of "ifs" right now. I am reasonably confident that Correa's 2023 season was an outlier. Without the distraction of free agency (thinking he is going to be a Giant, then a Met, and then back to the Twins) and a healthy foot, I would expect him to perform more like 2022 than 2023.

What happens to this team if Buxton can stay healthy and play CF for 80 or 100  games this season? Even if he bats his career average of .235, he has enough speed to turn some singles into doubles and create some havoc on the basepaths (I don't think 30 steals is unreasonable if he plays 100 games). Maybe the Twins get super lucky and get early 2021 Buxton back.

What happens if Royce Lewis is the real deal? The sample size on Lewis is still small but it looks like he can hit. In his 70 MLB games, he is an over .300 hitter with and OPS+ of 149. If this is an accurate picture of what the Twins have, a healthy Lewis could easily hit 30 HR. 

If some of the other pieces (Wallner, Julien, Jeffers, Kiriloff, maybe even Kepler, if he is still around) perform too, this could be a really fun offense to watch.

[UK Twin]

His injury would have affected his stance at the plate. His eye would have remained as good as it was so hence why the strikeout rate stayed pretty much the same but ground outs and GIDP skyrocketed. I am confident his offensive production will improve significantly this season, back to around his career averages, possibly higher.

[Riverbrian]

13 hours ago, RpR said:

Correa has been up and down his whole career, varying from average to among the best.

This was not the first time he was average.

The family had a cat 

If you were sitting on the couch and when the cat felt like it, she would crawl up on your chest, lay her head next to yours, make that purring sound and stay there for awhile. It was kinda nice and then all of sudden, from the same position, without doing a thing to her, she would do that cat slap thing across your face while hissing, like it was her way of saying it's over and I'm leaving. 

Day to day, moment to moment, we never really knew what to expect from her. Sitting in the window, all calm and then the zoomies would cause her to sprint full speed across the house and back to the window in seconds. 

She would meow by the door, so you open the door to let her out, she would go out and immediately meow to get back in. 

The cat was very hard to figure but I came to the conclusion that she had the stability of defensive stats and I was just going to have to accept that.  

[Karbo]

Having had that injury myself, I have great respect for him playing thru it!

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, minman1982 said:

While I am excited for the upcoming season, there are a lot of "ifs" right now. I am reasonably confident that Correa's 2023 season was an outlier. Without the distraction of free agency (thinking he is going to be a Giant, then a Met, and then back to the Twins) and a healthy foot, I would expect him to perform more like 2022 than 2023.

What happens to this team if Buxton can stay healthy and play CF for 80 or 100  games this season? Even if he bats his career average of .235, he has enough speed to turn some singles into doubles and create some havoc on the basepaths (I don't think 30 steals is unreasonable if he plays 100 games). Maybe the Twins get super lucky and get early 2021 Buxton back.

What happens if Royce Lewis is the real deal? The sample size on Lewis is still small but it looks like he can hit. In his 70 MLB games, he is an over .300 hitter with and OPS+ of 149. If this is an accurate picture of what the Twins have, a healthy Lewis could easily hit 30 HR. 

If some of the other pieces (Wallner, Julien, Jeffers, Kiriloff, maybe even Kepler, if he is still around) perform too, this could be a really fun offense to watch.

Going to go out on a limb & say Lewis is the real deal!! Looking forward to 135+ games.

Good young core, as you state, along with some veteran depth with Kepler - Farmer - Vazquez - Santana - Castro & Vets in the Pen!

Buxton - hoping for even 40-50 games in CF & he’s ready to play in October. Another 60-75 at DH. He only has 45 steals in the past 6 years though…….getting him somewhat healthy and turning him loose on the bases isn’t happening, or shouldn’t! 29 steals at age 23 is his maximum……..his last truly healthy season … played 140 games. Maybe 5 steals at key times?……..25 doubles & similar HR total would be great.

[Boswell]

Three playoff victories in the books.  A ballplayer worth every penny of his contract!

[saviking]

Okay, I'll bite. I will drop my criticism of Correa and give him a chance to perform. And I'm going to hope Buxton is healthy the entire year. And both of them have 4.0 WAR's which would most likely give us a good run into the playoffs.

I mean, it's a new season, and hope springs eternal, right. 

But if Correa has a horrible start to the season like the last two years, I will find it hard not to criticize how much we paid for him after the first quarter of the season. As for Buxton, if he gets hurt, it's par for the course and next man up. If he's healthy and doesn't produce, that's another story.

Here's to an 8.0 WAR from two players .. Cheers!