Replacing Sonny Gray’s production

[Parfigliano]

Can we all stop hand wringing over the "how-who replaces Sonny Gray" doom and gloom.  Numbers wise Sonny wasnt Sonny last year.  He was A+  much better Sonny.

Book it.  His numbers this year wont approach last year. He's what 33-34.  Prime regression candidate.

Twins young arms are progression  canidates.  I like our young arms over Sonny going into this year.

[tony&rodney]

8 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Can we all stop hand wringing over the "how-who replaces Sonny Gray" doom and gloom.  Numbers wise Sonny wasnt Sonny last year.  He was A+  much better Sonny.

Book it.  His numbers this year wont approach last year. He's what 33-34.  Prime regression candidate.

Twins young arms are progression  canidates.  I like our young arms over Sonny going into this year.

Like the optimism. Looked over the game logs for Sonny Gray this morning real quickly. He really gave the team a chance. The offense should pick it up and I have more confidence in Varland than most.

[Joe A. Preusser]

IMHO, he's a regression candidate because he no longer pitches for us.  I believe in what our MLB pitching coaches can do for arms.  I'm excited for us to bring in or up more arms to develop.  Would love us to deal for a cost controlled young guy we can take to the next level.  

[stringer bell]

Gray has had a good career, but I don’t think he’s elite. I think he will allow more long balls and strand a lower percentage of base runners.

When most TD posters say “replace Sonny Gray”, they mean replace his contribution from last year—a tall order. 

[FilthyMogwai]

19 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Can we all stop hand wringing over the "how-who replaces Sonny Gray" doom and gloom.  Numbers wise Sonny wasnt Sonny last year.  He was A+  much better Sonny.

Book it.  His numbers this year wont approach last year. He's what 33-34.  Prime regression candidate.

Twins young arms are progression  canidates.  I like our young arms over Sonny going into this year.

When I think of replacing Sonny, I don't think so much about where Sonny's career is headed. I think about how do the Twins find an arm that can produce at the level he did last year in 2024? I agree, he wasn't likely to be that guy again.

I don't mind losing him because, like you, I don't think he reproduces 2023 again and I don't want the Twins to pay for what he did in the past that he might not achieve again.  However, I think they need to find a strong #2 to play that role again this season.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 2/9/2024 at 10:14 PM, Parfigliano said:

Can we all stop hand wringing over the "how-who replaces Sonny Gray" doom and gloom.  Numbers wise Sonny wasnt Sonny last year.  He was A+  much better Sonny.

Book it.  His numbers this year wont approach last year. He's what 33-34.  Prime regression candidate.

Twins young arms are progression  canidates.  I like our young arms over Sonny going into this year.

I think Bailey Ober replaces Sonny Gray’s likely output. Last year he put up a 1.07 whip with  25% k rate, 5% bb rate for 2.4 fWAR. 2022 was similar rate stats but shortened. He appears healthy and if he can stay that way, he should surpass 3 fWAR and be a top 20 starting pitcher in ‘24.

i think MLR put up the chart on the Twins having the projected best AL pitching staff for ‘24 and 4th in MLB and I believe it.

[Squirrel]

10 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

I think Bailey Ober replaces Sonny Gray’s likely output. Last year he put up a 1.07 whip with  25% k rate, 5% bb rate for 2.4 fWAR. 2022 was similar rate stats but shortened. He appears healthy and if he can stay that way, he should surpass 3 fWAR and be a top 20 starting pitcher in ‘24.

i think MLR put up the chart on the Twins having the projected best AL pitching staff for ‘24 and 4th in MLB and I believe it.

Then who replaces Bailey Ober’s production from last year? Maybe Paddock? I think the point is we haven’t (yet) equaled what we lost. Part of what made the rotation great last year was production and relative health. I don’t think we have the pieces yet that is comparable? It’s all a crap shoot and I think the FO is rolling the dice thinking they already have a good bet. I’m not sold. I’m not ‘unsold’, either.

[KirbyDome89]

I think people forget how fortunate the starting unit (sans Mahle) was from a health/production standpoint. The Twins relied heavily on the the starting staff and they needed a Cy Young runner up season from Gray to get to 87 wins. Idk if I'd call concern over replacing that type of production hand wringing. 

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I think people forget how fortunate the starting unit (sans Mahle) was from a health/production standpoint. The Twins relied heavily on the the starting staff and they needed a Cy Young runner up season from Gray to get to 87 wins. Idk if I'd call concern over replacing that type of production hand wringing. 

Agree, but not sure why you even threw Mahle in there. He wasn’t part of the rotation last year at all, not even in the plans. But our rotation last year produced and was relatively healthy. You just can’t count on the health part let alone the production part. And the FO hasn’t replaced the production we lost with anyone and seems to be rolling the dice on what we have really stepping up and forward. Unless they come through with a Lopez-like trade, we’ve certainly taken a step back … unless their bet on hope transpires with lots of steps forward by the current group. Something you can’t count on.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

3 hours ago, Squirrel said:

Then who replaces Bailey Ober’s production from last year? Maybe Paddock? I think the point is we haven’t (yet) equaled what we lost. Part of what made the rotation great last year was production and relative health. I don’t think we have the pieces yet that is comparable? It’s all a crap shoot and I think the FO is rolling the dice thinking they already have a good bet. I’m not sold. I’m not ‘unsold’, either.

We have a few question marks but I like the starter options.   You have your #1 in Lopez.   Haven't had that for years.   

#2 This is your question mark.  Paddack,  showed me something in the playoffs.  I think he has the chance to be something special.  He has the highest ceiling of any of our pitching options beyond Lopez.  

#3-#5  you then have Ryan, Ober, Varland and Desclafani to fill 3 spots.   Yes I would prefer 1 more solid option but that is a strong starting lineup with a bit of depth.  However you are counting on Paddack showing something he hasn't during his career.  

As to Gray,  I think he will be a solid starter the next couple years, but I think last year will be his high water mark on the remainder of his career.  

We have saved our prospect capital to use it if we need it.  

[Squirrel]

10 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

As to Gray,  I think he will be a solid starter the next couple years, but I think last year will be his high water mark on the remainder of his career. 

Again, no one is necessarily suggesting we should have held onto Gray. I’m not comparing what we lost from last year to Gray’s potential production this year. All I and others are saying is we are skeptical that the rotation will be this year where it was at last year, because of the production and health we got from last year’s rotation. I’m just not as hopeful without an upgraded addition. As I said, I think the FO is rolling the dice it will be. I’m neither sold or unsold. Just a bit skeptical. But good for you for your optimism. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 minute ago, Squirrel said:

Again, no one is necessarily suggesting we should have held onto Gray. I’m not comparing what we lost from last year to Gray’s potential production this year. All I and others are saying is we are skeptical that the rotation will be this year where it was at last year. As I said, I think the FO is rolling the dice it will be. I’m neither sold or unsold. Just a bit skeptical. But good for you for your optimism. 

I understand questioning it.  Its not as strong as last year,  but its not bad compared to previous years.  Actually much stronger. We still have the opportunity to improve it.  Not sure if we will or not, or run with what we have. 

 I really really like what we are doing in the bullpen,  and I am more optimistic on Buxton that he may actually be healthy.   If I were a betting man would be tempted to put some money on them this year.   They have a chance to be special.  

[Fatbat]

Even if Gray’24 is better than Gray ‘23 (unlikely) who cares unless he beats us in the WS. We got guys to step up and pitch well. We might even be better off giving the young guys more innings. Every season is different. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Interesting Twins still in the market for a starting pitcher in FA per Morosi.  

Those in that second tier still remaining are Ryu, Lorenzen, and Clevinger.   Snell and Montgomery are likely out of our price range.  But very interesting development.  Showing again they are valuing depth and options.  There are a few further down option but those appear to be the main targets for about 4-6 teams.  

[DocBauer]

For the most part, I like the Twins rotation a lot. But Squirrel is right that the Twins don't need to replace Gray in 2024, they need to replace what Gray did in 2023. But how do they do that? And I'm just talking regular season for the moment, not "who starts game 2 of a playoff series". We have a whole season to play before we get there.

Ryan threw like an All Star for about 2/3 of a season before his groin injury. Should have shut it down, get better, and got back up instead of struggling through it. Health and more experience, he might raise his game a bit more.

I'm still not sure we've seen the best of Ober, still growing in experience. He tired a bit late, got a rest, and looked good again. I don't hold his 1st and only playoff appearance against him.

Paddack, more or less, is a replacement for Gray or Maeda, just depending on how you look at things. It appears he's increased velocity, but it won't be to the levels we saw in 2023 when he was coming out of the pen. He has a great change. Even in early 2022 after coming over in the trade, the Twins had tweaked his breaking ball and were very encouraged before his arm gave out. The question is mitigating his IP over an entire season so he's got life at the end. A skip or two and a IL stint to rest might do the trick.

Personally, I have more faith than some in  Varland. Everyone seems to focus on his final numbers last season, and last 3 starts, and notnhis first 12 when he looked like a bona-fide, solid SP with some upside. I think upside remains, and you could do a hell of a lot worse for the end of the rotation.

DeScalfini scares me! Is he ready? Can he come close to his 2021 self? His early 2023 was quite good. But is just awaiting a TJ surgery? He's a wild card I don't like.

Beyond those 6, the "problem" is more depth. Can SWR actually take the next step? How soon might Festa actually be ready to take the ball? Is Headrick anything other than a pen arm waiting to happen? I think Ohl might surprise the hell out of everyone and be a depth option after a little AAA time. 

You win many different ways. A better, deeper pen is one of those ways. A better producing offense is one of those ways. POTENTIALLY, both of those have a check mark in the positive column right now, though I'm still advocating for another veteran RH bat unless the Twins really, truly believe Martin is ready NOW.

You don't just replace Gray individually unless you make a MAJOR acquisition. But you can do it collectively. Young arms, (not old, but still a little inexperienced) like Ryan, Ober, and Varland get a little better. Paddack is what the FO and we fans think/hope he might be even with the IP factor. You have to hope Disco has SOMETHING solid to offer. And if not day one, you're hoping a month or two in to the season the arms at AAA are ready to at least "help" and be at least solid. 

I haven't ready anything from Morosi, or anyone else, that the Twins are still looking for rotation help. If they are, I could be convinced on Ryu, but not sure about anyone else. I could be sold on a solid 1yr deal for him, telling me DeScalfini might not be ready yet. 

I have championed, and maintain, that despite some potential help at AAA, the smart thing would be a split milb deal, probably with an out clause, for someone like Odorizzi or Cueto, etc, to see if they've still got it and can come back. Cheap, low to virtually no risk, and potential help. 

The rotation, no matter what, might take at least a small downturn in 2024. But it doesn't have to be major if a couple things go right. And a better pen and offense also help offset that downturn. 

 

 

[Doctor Wu]

16 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

#2 This is your question mark.  Paddack,  showed me something in the playoffs.  I think he has the chance to be something special.  He has the highest ceiling of any of our pitching options beyond Lopez.  

I'm high on Paddack too. I truly think he is going to perform above expectations this coming season. Hey, I'm no pitching expert or stat demon, but I just like how he came back last year with some fire and grit. He still wants to be a top-flight starter and I'm hoping that's going to happen ... this year. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, Doctor Wu said:

I'm high on Paddack too. I truly think he is going to perform above expectations this coming season. Hey, I'm no pitching expert or stat demon, but I just like how he came back last year with some fire and grit. He still wants to be a top-flight starter and I'm hoping that's going to happen ... this year. 

It wasn't the velocity that impressed me.  It was the control of the secondary pitches.  Painting the plate with curve ball.   Fastball, high and away.  The control was fantastic.  With the increased velocity, and much better coaching,  yes as long as health holds up,  his ceiling is very very high.  

[nicksaviking]

I really don't think it's asking too much of a "contending" team to add to the top of the rotation to push the other good pitchers down in the order, instead of adding to the back of the rotation to push them up. If money's an issue you can do it via trade.

The best teams in the league add to their rotations this way. This team has done it this way.

[MGX]

There are many different ways to win ballgames. We don't need to replace Gray's production from '23 IMO because we will be better offensively & have a better bullpen. Sonny had a great year & it would tough to find any available pitcher to replace that production, but it isn't needed to win ballgames. With that said if we add a SP who improves the team that would be great.

[JD-TWINS]

On 2/10/2024 at 12:22 AM, stringer bell said:

Gray has had a good career, but I don’t think he’s elite. I think he will allow more long balls and strand a lower percentage of base runners.

When most TD posters say “replace Sonny Gray”, they mean replace his contribution from last year—a tall order. 

Team’s outcomes in Gray’s starts, 15-18. Could have - should have been 4 or 5 games better with some run support…………an aside, Maeda’s outcomes were 6-8. That’s a combined record of 21-26. That’s reality. Those numbers are what the Team needs to replace & match or fully expect to better in ‘24……….not trying to replace ERA stats.

Gray gave up a ridiculously low % of HR’s in ‘23. Good for him! Tough to sustain at that rate. When he challenged hitters and made the mental adjustment - strategic adjustment to not walk guys, his results were great. He pitched two Playoff games & got out of a big jam by picking a guy off 2B. 5 inning win. His Astros start was not good. I think with a really solid 8 guys (Varland & Canterino added) in the Pen in October, Twins can be very competitive on the mound.

I completely expect that between Paddack - Varland - DeSclafani, the Team can post a record of .500 or better………….if they go .500 and all else is static, the Team wins 90 games.

I would expect the other 3 starters to have better won/loss numbers in ‘24 and I would expect the offense to be more consistent through the year in ‘24 as well.

Gotta move on and no reason not to expect positive outcomes.

[KirbyDome89]

21 hours ago, Squirrel said:

Agree, but not sure why you even threw Mahle in there. He wasn’t part of the rotation last year at all, not even in the plans. But our rotation last year produced and was relatively healthy. You just can’t count on the health part let alone the production part. And the FO hasn’t replaced the production we lost with anyone and seems to be rolling the dice on what we have really stepping up and forward. Unless they come through with a Lopez-like trade, we’ve certainly taken a step back … unless their bet on hope transpires with lots of steps forward by the current group. Something you can’t count on.

Huh? He only made a few starts, but he was part of the rotation to open the season. I'd consider that part of the plan.

Agreed, banking on that many guys reaching or exceeding career highs in IPs again, as well as matching or improving performance seems like a near impossible ask. 

[JD-TWINS]

23 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I think people forget how fortunate the starting unit (sans Mahle) was from a health/production standpoint. The Twins relied heavily on the the starting staff and they needed a Cy Young runner up season from Gray to get to 87 wins. Idk if I'd call concern over replacing that type of production hand wringing. 

Not trying to replace ERA stats! Gray gave us chances to win games ……… Maeda gave us chances to win games. Regular Season one went 8-8 & the other 6-8 with ERA’s 1.6 runs apart.

Gray’s record should have been better but it wasn’t. Reality. He was 1 - 1 in the Playoffs with an OK 5 inning start against Toronto (picked a guy off 2B to escape a jam) & a poor start v. Astros. Reality.

Between them, the Team’s outcomes were 21-26 (Gray’s starts were 15-18)……..no reason to be overly concerned with losing the #2 Cy Young candidate. Not trying to be flip about losing Gray or Maeda. Gotta have good innings/outings from replacements but shouldn’t be afraid with the guys stepping in to be able to have a .500 record in their starts.

[Squirrel]

22 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Huh? He only made a few starts, but he was part of the rotation to open the season. I'd consider that part of the plan.

Agreed, banking on that many guys reaching or exceeding career highs in IPs again, as well as matching or improving performance seems like a near impossible ask. 

You’re right. For some reason I was thinking he only pitched a few after the trade and that was it. 

[chpettit19]

9 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Not trying to replace ERA stats! Gray gave us chances to win games ……… Maeda gave us chances to win games. Regular Season one went 8-8 & the other 6-8 with ERA’s 1.6 runs apart.

Gray’s record should have been better but it wasn’t. Reality. He was 1 - 1 in the Playoffs with an OK 5 inning start against Toronto (picked a guy off 2B to escape a jam) & a poor start v. Astros. Reality.

Between them, the Team’s outcomes were 21-26 (Gray’s starts were 15-18)……..no reason to be overly concerned with losing the #2 Cy Young candidate. Not trying to be flip about losing Gray or Maeda. Gotta have good innings/outings from replacements but shouldn’t be afraid with the guys stepping in to be able to have a .500 record in their starts.

I think you're underselling what Gray did for the team, and how easy it is to replace it. 184 innings alone is a lot to fill in this day and age. And if they're not being filled by an ERA less than 3 that 15-18 record would be much worse. The Twins scored an average of 3.71 runs per game during Gray's starts. There were 24 qualified pitchers in all of baseball with an ERA under 3.71 last year. Yes, 15-18 isn't great, but there was a lot of room to go down there. In Sonny's 32 starts only 14 of them saw the team score at least 4 runs. 

If the #2 Cy Young candidate gets you to only 15-18 with an ERA under 3 in 32 starts there's a lot of space to go down and you should be very concerned. An average pitcher replacing him sends that record down dramatically. Just looking at the record in those games and saying "well others going .500 is reasonable so it's not that hard to replace" ignores what caused that record. The team being under .500 with him on the mound should make you nervous about replacing him, not excited. If you hand a lesser pitcher 18 starts where their team is going to score 3 or fewer runs that 15-18 record plummets. Replacing 184 innings of sub-3 ERA is very hard. Was never going to be done by just 1 person being added to the roster, but a 15-18 record with a sub-3 ERA is a bad sign for replacing him, not a good one.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

13 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think you're underselling what Gray did for the team, and how easy it is to replace it. 184 innings alone is a lot to fill in this day and age. And if they're not being filled by an ERA less than 3 that 15-18 record would be much worse. The Twins scored an average of 3.71 runs per game during Gray's starts. There were 24 qualified pitchers in all of baseball with an ERA under 3.71 last year. Yes, 15-18 isn't great, but there was a lot of room to go down there. In Sonny's 32 starts only 14 of them saw the team score at least 4 runs. 

If the #2 Cy Young candidate gets you to only 15-18 with an ERA under 3 in 32 starts there's a lot of space to go down and you should be very concerned. And average pitcher replacing him sends that record down dramatically. Just looking at the record in those games and saying "well others going .500 is reasonable so it's not that hard to replace" ignores what caused that record. The team being under .500 with him on the mound should make you nervous about replacing him, not excited. If you hand a lesser pitcher 18 starts where their team is going to score 3 or fewer runs that 15-18 record plummets. Replacing 184 innings of sub-3 ERA is very hard. Was never going to be done by just 1 person being added to the roster, but a 15-18 record with a sub-3 ERA is a bad sign for replacing him, not a good one.

I can agree that the W/L record is meaningless and replacing 184 innings of sub-3 ERA is what this is all about.  However, I might maintain that the Twins' offense won't be nearly as inept at the beginning of the season as it was last season.  A bit of increased run support, combined with a better bullpen performance (remember, they were a dumpster fire at the beginning of the year last year), might result in better team outcomes for those games.  I also am a proponent of our good young pitchers (Ryan, Ober, Paddack, Varland) being able to take at least a half step forward this year, so that can help also. 

No matter what, I think we're going to be able to find out very soon!

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

On 2/9/2024 at 11:14 PM, Parfigliano said:

Can we all stop hand wringing over the "how-who replaces Sonny Gray" doom and gloom.  Numbers wise Sonny wasnt Sonny last year.  He was A+  much better Sonny.

Book it.  His numbers this year wont approach last year. He's what 33-34.  Prime regression candidate.

Twins young arms are progression  canidates.  I like our young arms over Sonny going into this year.

Issue I had with Sonny is that he was prone to nuclear meltdowns on the mound. First time through an order, he could absolutely dominate. But, after that - a tendency to start nibbling, laboring on the mound with incessant gum chewing, spinning the ball and taking his cap on and off. A lot of the accolades that he received were based on folks looking at his stats rather than actually watching him pitch. There's a reason why he went so long between wins and it wasn't necessarily a lack of run support, it was more that he rarely put teams away and let his fate in the bullpen's hands.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I can agree that the W/L record is meaningless and replacing 184 innings of sub-3 ERA is what this is all about.  However, I might maintain that the Twins' offense won't be nearly as inept at the beginning of the season as it was last season.  A bit of increased run support, combined with a better bullpen performance (remember, they were a dumpster fire at the beginning of the year last year), might result in better team outcomes for those games.  I also am a proponent of our good young pitchers (Ryan, Ober, Paddack, Varland) being able to take at least a half step forward this year, so that can help also. 

No matter what, I think we're going to be able to find out very soon!

Yes, there is very much a pathway to an improved record for the Twins, but replacing Sonny's innings is not easy. The people who do projections don't see it as likely, but I'm not suggesting there's no way they can improve. I think this team is very similar to last year's in that their range of reasonable outcomes is massive. If everything goes right they're a 90+ win team. If a few key things go wrong they're in the mid-80s again, and if more than a few key things go wrong they're in the 70s. There's very little certainty I see with this team, even if I can see the reasons for hope that people have. I just think replacing Sonny's innings from last year is a big challenge, and I don't think they've done it. They seem to be leaning more into the pen and my guess is we're maybe looking at some more "short start" frustration this year as they plan to lean more heavily on the pen.

I am very excited for them to get things rolling so we can actually see some players playing and not just keep speculating on everything! I'm expecting a very interesting season, and I'm hoping we see some guys really take off and establish themselves as the new core.

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I can agree that the W/L record is meaningless and replacing 184 innings of sub-3 ERA is what this is all about.  However, I might maintain that the Twins' offense won't be nearly as inept at the beginning of the season as it was last season.  A bit of increased run support, combined with a better bullpen performance (remember, they were a dumpster fire at the beginning of the year last year), might result in better team outcomes for those games.  I also am a proponent of our good young pitchers (Ryan, Ober, Paddack, Varland) being able to take at least a half step forward this year, so that can help also. 

No matter what, I think we're going to be able to find out very soon!

I think that two of four progressing, with one regressing and one staying the same is more reasonable. Pitchers are darn hard to predict, but not many just keep getting better and better. I do agree that the offense should be better than the first half offense of 2023 and that the bullpen is better to start the year.

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Issue I had with Sonny is that he was prone to nuclear meltdowns on the mound. First time through an order, he could absolutely dominate. But, after that - a tendency to start nibbling, laboring on the mound with incessant gum chewing, spinning the ball and taking his cap on and off. A lot of the accolades that he received were based on folks looking at his stats rather than actually watching him pitch. There's a reason why he went so long between wins and it wasn't necessarily a lack of run support, it was more that he rarely put teams away and let his fate in the bullpen's hands.

Ooh, tough crowd. I'm not the biggest Sonny Gray booster, but he had a terrific year last year despite a ho-hum win/loss record. He made adjustments as he went through games and held teams down when he didn't have his best stuff or command. I expect many of those things to regress towards the mean in 2024, but I don't blame him for his won/loss record.

[nicksaviking]

2 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Ooh, tough crowd. I'm not the biggest Sonny Gray booster, but he had a terrific year last year despite a ho-hum win/loss record. He made adjustments as he went through games and held teams down when he didn't have his best stuff or command. I expect many of those things to regress towards the mean in 2024, but I don't blame him for his won/loss record.

Yeah, getting lost in a lot of this 'replacing Sonny Gray' talk is that no one is actually asking for a Sonny Gray clone. Those of us concerned with this issue are just asking for another top of the rotation arm. Doesn't actually have to walk like Sonny, talk like Sonny, get awards like Sonny or even pitch like Sonny. We want someone who the team can confidently run out to start one of the first two playoff games.