Replacing Sonny Gray’s production

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

5 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I really don't think it's asking too much of a "contending" team to add to the top of the rotation to push the other good pitchers down in the order, instead of adding to the back of the rotation to push them up. If money's an issue you can do it via trade.

The best teams in the league add to their rotations this way. This team has done it this way.

No its not much at all,  just a Lee, or Walker or a Julien or combination of something.   Right now White sox are asking for 2 top 100 prospects plus additional prospects for Cease.   No offense for Cease that is nuts.   The cost is likely too high right now for a #2 or #1 type pitcher.    

[nicksaviking]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

No its not much at all,  just a Lee, or Walker or a Julien or combination of something.   Right now White sox are asking for 2 top 100 prospects plus additional prospects for Cease.   No offense for Cease that is nuts.   The cost is likely too high right now for a #2 or #1 type pitcher.    

I'd hesitate on Walker, but I'd do one of Lee or Julien, preferable Lee. They can't both play 2B anyway and it's unlikely all of these young guys will be stars.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I think you're underselling what Gray did for the team, and how easy it is to replace it. 184 innings alone is a lot to fill in this day and age. And if they're not being filled by an ERA less than 3 that 15-18 record would be much worse. The Twins scored an average of 3.71 runs per game during Gray's starts. There were 24 qualified pitchers in all of baseball with an ERA under 3.71 last year. Yes, 15-18 isn't great, but there was a lot of room to go down there. In Sonny's 32 starts only 14 of them saw the team score at least 4 runs. 

If the #2 Cy Young candidate gets you to only 15-18 with an ERA under 3 in 32 starts there's a lot of space to go down and you should be very concerned. And average pitcher replacing him sends that record down dramatically. Just looking at the record in those games and saying "well others going .500 is reasonable so it's not that hard to replace" ignores what caused that record. The team being under .500 with him on the mound should make you nervous about replacing him, not excited. If you hand a lesser pitcher 18 starts where their team is going to score 3 or fewer runs that 15-18 record plummets. Replacing 184 innings of sub-3 ERA is very hard. Was never going to be done by just 1 person being added to the roster, but a 15-18 record with a sub-3 ERA is a bad sign for replacing him, not a good one.

Gray was a hell of a pitcher for us the last 2 years.  I also don't see him performing as well as he did as last year.  He got out of a lot of jams with no damage done.  A couple more home runs changes his ERA quite a bit.  Gray is also an excellent regular season pitcher.   However with just so/so stuff but pretty good control, if the control is off just a little bit the elite baseball teams in playoffs are more likely to do damage.   I loved what he did for us and the trade.  Absolute no brainer.  Even still I am ok, with the team we have and hope we get 1 more starter either as a FA or trade to add to the mix.  

[chpettit19]

34 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Gray was a hell of a pitcher for us the last 2 years.  I also don't see him performing as well as he did as last year.  He got out of a lot of jams with no damage done.  A couple more home runs changes his ERA quite a bit.  Gray is also an excellent regular season pitcher.   However with just so/so stuff but pretty good control, if the control is off just a little bit the elite baseball teams in playoffs are more likely to do damage.   I loved what he did for us and the trade.  Absolute no brainer.  Even still I am ok, with the team we have and hope we get 1 more starter either as a FA or trade to add to the mix.  

Yeah, I'm definitely not advocating for the idea that Sonny is going to be anywhere near as good moving forward. I'm only speaking to replacing what he did last year. I hope to see 1 more pitcher added, but am not expecting it at this point. I just think replacing 180+ innings of sub-3 ERA is actually really hard to do.

[notoriousgod71]

9 hours ago, MGX said:

There are many different ways to win ballgames. We don't need to replace Gray's production from '23 IMO because we will be better offensively & have a better bullpen. Sonny had a great year & it would tough to find any available pitcher to replace that production, but it isn't needed to win ballgames. With that said if we add a SP who improves the team that would be great.

Why is everyone convinced this team will be better offensively? They still don't have a left fielder. While Correa is a likely bounce back candidate, Kepler and Jeffers are strong regression candidates. Buxton will do what he does whenever he's healthy enough to play.

Santana is a different, but not necessarily better, player than polanco.

Wallner and/or Julien better not fall victim to a Miranda like sophomore slump.

 

 

[strumdatjag]

I’m willing to predict that in 2024 there will be one Twins pitcher (not named Pablo Lopez) who will have better stats than Sonny Gray’s stats this year.  I suspect nobody here in their right mind (surprisingly the vast majority of us) would take that bet.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 2/11/2024 at 10:23 AM, Squirrel said:

Then who replaces Bailey Ober’s production from last year? Maybe Paddock? I think the point is we haven’t (yet) equaled what we lost. Part of what made the rotation great last year was production and relative health. I don’t think we have the pieces yet that is comparable? It’s all a crap shoot and I think the FO is rolling the dice thinking they already have a good bet. I’m not sold. I’m not ‘unsold’, either.

looking at WAR, Sonny’s 184 innings bringing 5.3 WAR is a high bar to clear, and it is.

Ryan pitched 161, Ober pitched 144. Both could feasibly flirt with 180 innings, and both with top 30 rate stats. That 1.07 WHIP is elite. 5.79 K/BB is fantastic.

 

how much does Paddack, Varland and DeSclafani drop off?

Paddack is projected for 2ish WAR 120 innings, 1.21 WHIP, improving over Kenta

Varland is projected 119 innings and 1.2 WAR 1.27 WHIP, serviceable to very good 5th starter.

If DeSclafani doesn’t have to pitch much… it’s probably going to be another very good pitching season.

big if… but I’m bought in

[Squirrel]

11 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

big if… but I’m bought in

I’m not, yet. If things go well this season I will be in September 🙂

If not, I reserve the right to say I was right 😜🤣

Thanks for a very reasoned post!

[tony&rodney]

Gray was great but he is gone. Maeda was decent but he is gone. Paddack should easily pick up 100-120 innings to cover for Maeda. We hope Lopez repeats his year. Ryan and Ober will be better and get more innings. The key ....

..... is Varland. Have faith.

[TwinsDr2021]

22 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Team’s outcomes in Gray’s starts, 15-18. Could have - should have been 4 or 5 games better with some run support…………an aside, Maeda’s outcomes were 6-8. That’s a combined record of 21-26. That’s reality. Those numbers are what the Team needs to replace & match or fully expect to better in ‘24……….not trying to replace ERA stats.

I tend to disagree with your trying to replace the wins, the Twins need to replace 288.33 innings  and 52 starts (Gray 184, Maeda 14.33)

Ober and Ryan can replace 60 or so of those innings, Paddack another 100 or so and maybe DeSclafani picks up the rest. That is perfect world, if some of that doesn't happen Varland can hopefully pick that up. In a not so perfect world the Twins will be running minor league guys in and out. (Not my favorite solution)

 

[Craig Arko]

I suspect Gray’s production will be met during the regular season by improvements by the other members of the staff, rather than a single replacement. This of course still leaves the position of number two playoff starter wide open.

[Fatbat]

The Twins likely have 1 more reclamation SP to sign. Per Morosi, Lorenzen or Syndergaard will be a Twin soon.  

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

The Twins likely have 1 more reclamation SP to sign. Per Morosi, Lorenzen or Syndergaard will be a Twin soon.  

Ugh. Syndergaard hasn’t been good since????? Lorenzen threw a no-hitter and then went to …..no good last year. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Ugh. Syndergaard hasn’t been good since????? Lorenzen threw a no-hitter and then went to …..no good last year. 

Ugh is the right word!

is Paddack or DeSclafani injured/setback? I’d rather have Festa or Raya in the rotation than either of those two, but starting the season with them might be too quick.

[notoriousgod71]

On 2/12/2024 at 1:46 PM, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

No its not much at all,  just a Lee, or Walker or a Julien or combination of something.   Right now White sox are asking for 2 top 100 prospects plus additional prospects for Cease.   No offense for Cease that is nuts.   The cost is likely too high right now for a #2 or #1 type pitcher.    

No one said it had to be via trade.

Also if they would've kept polanco instead of trading him for spare parts we could have traded Julien instead.

 

Of course I know the twins would never go in on an ace in FA.

 

[Jeff K]

On 2/11/2024 at 3:06 PM, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I understand questioning it.  Its not as strong as last year,  but its not bad compared to previous years.  Actually much stronger. We still have the opportunity to improve it.  Not sure if we will or not, or run with what we have. 

 I really really like what we are doing in the bullpen,  and I am more optimistic on Buxton that he may actually be healthy.   If I were a betting man would be tempted to put some money on them this year.   They have a chance to be special.  

The Twins have ample time to address starting pitching if needed.  I think both Ryan and Ober look very promising.  They might not be #2 starters, but both look to be at the #3 level.  Paddock could be as well.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 minute ago, Jeff K said:

The Twins have ample time to address starting pitching if needed.  I think both Ryan and Ober look very promising.  They might not be #2 starters, but both look to be at the #3 level.  Paddock could be as well.  

Ryan was a #2 early in the season last year, then fell apart.  Ober is a low end 2 high end 3 in my opinion.