Twins Add Veteran Reliever Jay Jackson to Already-Full Bullpen

[SteveLV]

My first thought is that this is a nice depth signing for the Bullpen.  No problem with this move.  I assume at a modest price.

Second, my suspicion is that more trade(s) are coming. Might be a small move like Gordon for a lotto pick.  Might be a bigger move for a package of players, hopefully a good SP.

Twins need 2 spots on the 40 man at this point, and no obvious release options.

Finally, if Alcala and Balazovich (sp wrong I am sure) can get their acts in gear the Bullpen could be formidable.

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, SteveLV said:

Finally, if Alcala and Balazovich (sp wrong I am sure) can get their acts in gear the Bullpen could be formidable.

I do not expect Balazovic to end the offseason on the 40 man roster. They will keep looking to upgrade that spot if possible.

[mikelink45]

Fascinating - so hard to read the FO thinking and planning.  They certainly have a full BP now and we hope that Stoumont and Jackson live up to our expectations. It seems like we often value quantity over quality.  But I am ready to see what this combination does.

I know the DFA speculation.  How far are Sands, Winder, Balazovic from DFA status?

[Whitey333]

Interesting transactions recently to the bullpen.  Most low cost and low risk.  Also most that are coming off injury, are untested  have limited experience and that have been dumped by other teams.  Time will tell how it all works out.

[arby58]

9 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

DeScalfina

 

11 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

They trying to field the oldest team in the league?

They didn't re-sign a number of older players as well - Keuchel (36), Solano (36), Maeda (35), Gray (34), Taylor (32), Gallo (30) - and traded Polanco (30). Meanwhile, Topa is 32, DeSclafani is 33, Jackson 36, and Santana 38. Not that much different than last year.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

9 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

A strong bullpen is mandatory if they are running DeScalfina out there every 5th day.

True, but also need a strong and deep bullpen regardless of DeScalfini. 
 

last year we watched miscast Sands, Winder, and Headrick all collect dust on the roster (occasionally at the same time) for 5 days then end up being thrust into leverage out of necessity. If they want to really compete, they can only have one swing man, or none.

[Major League Ready]

10 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

A strong bullpen is mandatory if they are running DeScalfina out there every 5th day.

Over their careers, Ryan has average 1/4 if an inning more per start than DeSlafani.  Ober has averaged .11 inning less per start..

[I Never Bet On Sports]

Overall looking at how Fangraphs projects 2024 WAR for MLB pitchers on the 40 man roster (starters and relievers combined), They have the Twins ranked fourth in MLB, 1st in the AL. Per Spotrac, the Twins also have the lowest payroll for pitchers at $34M in 2024. Oakland is second lowest at $37M. 

1. Phillies 21.2 WAR $107M Payroll

2. Braves 20,.6 WAR $93M Payroll

3. Dodgers 20.1 WAR $82M Payroll

4. Twins 18.3 WAR $34M Payroll

5. Mariners 17.7WAR $44M Payroll

6. Astros 16.7 WAR $128M Payroll

11. Orioles 13.9 WAR $52M Payroill (yes this includes Corbin Burnes)

23. Rangers 13.7 WAR $142M Payroll

I don't know that I agree that the Twins have the best pitching staff in the AL, but this is what the numbers are currently. I would love to see the Twins add a legit 1/2 starter through trade like the Orioles just did. However, I don't think the Twins get the credit they deserve for assembling the staff they have currently with the lowest ;pitching payroll in MLB.

What am I missing?

[Nashvilletwin]

It’s all about the pen - depth and quality.  This is another solid move to attempt to establish a day-in and day-out shutdown relief corps.

But, yes, the 40 man becomes an issue.  The Twins have put a lot of effort into Balazovic and Gordon over the years and both are out of options.  I just can’t see them wanting to give them up for nothing (neither would sneak through waivers).  Is a trade of one or both for a lotto pick on the horizon? Perhaps.  But at the moment I’m leaning toward both getting the chance to compete in spring training for a spot.  Who knows, maybe they increase their value over the preseason if they don’t earn a big league role.

[tony&rodney]

Jackson is signed to a MLB contract according to mlbtraderumors.

I'm not sure any of the additions strengthens the Twins bullpen but it definitely improves the depth, much of it playing across the river in St. Paul. Depth is always good.

I do wonder what if any impact this will have on morale. It doesn't need to but baseball players are human and being pushed down to AAA by someone that has an MLB contract but is not necessarily better can create thoughts. 

Signing multiple players to camp on minor league contracts is more the norm because teams can then see what transpires in February and March before assigning slots to the 26 person roster. Competition isn't really a thing when a guy with options goes head to head with someone on an MLB deal.

[Dman]

I know this Twins pen is getting more love than normal but to me it feels like there are plenty of arms to worry about making it through an entire season.  Thielbar and Stewart spent some serious time on the IL  Staumount is coming back from thoracic outlet surgery. Jackson is 36 and has past arm issues. Alcala and Winder have had lot's of arm issues as well.  I like the depth the Twins are building and this sure beats what they did last year, but I still have my concerns.

With this level of depth I assume any talk of Varland or Canterino to the pen is a mute point as it looks like they won't be needed there at least not early.

[DJL44]

Is anyone keeping track of how many ways Twins Daily participants can spell DeSclafani? Just in this thread I've seen: DeScalfina, DeSlafini and DeScalfani. I was spelling it DeSclafini for a while. I'm sure I've seen DeScalfini and DeScalfani. It's pretty entertaining.

 

[jmlease1]

59 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Fascinating - so hard to read the FO thinking and planning.  They certainly have a full BP now and we hope that Stoumont and Jackson live up to our expectations. It seems like we often value quantity over quality.  But I am ready to see what this combination does.

I know the DFA speculation.  How far are Sands, Winder, Balazovic from DFA status?

not far at all. All three of them had better come into camp locked in and ready to go, because their careers are teetering. none of them did enough last season to feel comfortable at all. Even before this signing I had Winder, Sands, and Balazovic all missing the cut and either getting traded or DFA'd. I'd suggest this puts Alcala, Funderburk, and Staumont on the bubble too.

I'm interested by Jackson; if he can hit the zone he does well. He's not easy to hit even if he doesn't always put up video game Ks. Twins have a lot of options for the bullpen out the gate this season; hopefully they pick the right ones, though I'm sure some of this will get decided by health.

[Jeff K]

13 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

They trying to field the oldest team in the league?

And, yes, it does stuff, like 40 man changes. 

Relief pitching changes year over year.  Not worried about their age.

[saviking]

12 hours ago, Oldgoat_MN said:

First thing I looked at was his FIP. It was 4.2 last year. Then I noticed that his ERA has been lower than his FIP every year he's pitched over 5 innings.  Twice by a significant margin. 

And gotta love that WHIP. 

A strong bullpen is a really good thing. Seems like a good signing. 

I wonder why he has never pitched more than 20 innings in the bigs. He had good numbers when he pitched. He has an injury history and no options to be sent up and down without going through waivers. Based on his past he may not make it to July ...

[Major League Ready]

The Duran to SP angle is really interesting.  The additions of Topa and Jackson open that avenue but I think it's a bit of a longshot.  Bullpens play a bigger role in the playoffs than they do in the regular season.  That said, I would welcome it because it would be a lot of fun to watch and they can always put him back in the BP if it fails.  

The 40 man management and the potential for other trades very soon is also has my attention.  I will be checking MLB trade rumors often this week.  I think a trade for a RH outfielder is as likely as a trade for starting pitching.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

So the Twins are strengthening up their bullpen because they know they SP4 and SP5 are going to be train wrecks with no intention to improve.

Welcome to your 2024 Minnesota Twins.

[Nashvilletwin]

31 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

So the Twins are strengthening up their bullpen because they know they SP4 and SP5 are going to be train wrecks with no intention to improve.

Welcome to your 2024 Minnesota Twins.

If our #4 and #5 starters can give us 25 starters each of 5-6 IPs giving up 2-3 earned runs each outing (so an ERA of about 4.5), I’d take that with a shutdown pen behind them any day.  We’d probably would win about 30 of those 50 starts.

[jorgenswest]

2 hours ago, arby58 said:

 

They didn't re-sign a number of older players as well - Keuchel (36), Solano (36), Maeda (35), Gray (34), Taylor (32), Gallo (30) - and traded Polanco (30). Meanwhile, Topa is 32, DeSclafani is 33, Jackson 36, and Santana 38. Not that much different than last year.

How did you choose the ages? Last year’s players with their 2023 BBREF age and this year’s with the 2024? I wonder because I know that Gallo is off whichever day you picked during the season of play.

I do see a difference. The number of position players that had success in AA or AAA last year is more than the previous. I didn’t join those calling for their call ups because I believe in the value of development in AAA. Most have or will soon have significant time in AAA. As for the pitchers I would have no argument if it were Gray and even Maeda with contracts. I can get behind those aging players. Keuchel doesn’t fit because he had to show his skill in AAA. It isn’t the same for DeSclafini.

Varland is ready. Will the recent decline phase additions keep him AAA. The only way he should be in AAA is if there are 13 clearly better options in the majors. If it is close he needs the spot because he has the most upside. The same should be said about Santana and Miranda. If the Miranda is the better player he needs to be on the roster and Santana needs to go. 

 

[arby58]

2 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

How did you choose the ages? Last year’s players with their 2023 BBREF age and this year’s with the 2024? I wonder because I know that Gallo is off whichever day you picked during the season of play.

I do see a difference. The number of position players that had success in AA or AAA last year is more than the previous. I didn’t join those calling for their call ups because I believe in the value of development in AAA. Most have or will soon have significant time in AAA. As for the pitchers I would have no argument if it were Gray and even Maeda with contracts. I can get behind those aging players. Keuchel doesn’t fit because he had to show his skill in AAA. It isn’t the same for DeSclafini.

Varland is ready. Will the recent decline phase additions keep him AAA. The only way he should be in AAA is if there are 13 clearly better options in the majors. If it is close he needs the spot because he has the most upside. The same should be said about Santana and Miranda. If the Miranda is the better player he needs to be on the roster and Santana needs to go. 

 

The ones on the current Twins roster came from ESPN, those not came from Googling them. If it is off by a year somewhere, I assume that would be they are actually older - that would be the players no longer on the Twins' roster.

As for Varland - ready for what? He looked good at the end of the year in the BP. His starting line last year, OTOH, in MLB was 3-3, 5.30 ERA, 1.357 WHIP. Everybody's hated new possible 5th starter, was 4-8, 4.72 ERA, 1.206 WHIP. He may have also been playing through an injury.

[stringer bell]

11 hours ago, RaoulDuke said:

I did not expect another pen addition. 

They have Duran/ Stewart/ Jax/ Thielbar/ Topa as a pretty crowded back end already.  Alcala/ Funderburk/ Staumont/ Jackson can all be valuable pieces.  There is certainly volatility and consistency issues with relievers but there is a ton of options with upside there.

Seems like they are trying to cover for not having that real #2 by loading the pen.

They certainly haven't spent the kind of money that a #2 starter would command. They've brought in two older guys still under team control--Topa and Jackson--as an interesting twist in addition to Stewart last year.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

13 hours ago, Dman said:

I had the same reaction, confused.  I kind of thought they maybe wanted to keep Bubba and his elite speed on the 40 man.  Not that he would be a huge loss but the elite Buxton like speed might have come in handy at points in the season. They just grabbed Duarte and again no big deal to hope he clears waivers but they signed Jackson so he is here to stay.

As you pointed out the guy has been around a long time, but hasn't pitched much at the MLB level.  He had a real nice year last year although as others have pointed out his FIP is not nice. Not sure how his peripheral numbers check out, but it seems a curious choice for a 40 man spot.  I mean his MLB numbers are good he just seems like a possible regression candidate.

It does make you wonder if the Twins don't have a trade coming up that is gonna clear some 40 man room or maybe this is just  a guy they really like for lower leverage work?  I just kind of thought they might want a few more guys in the pen with options that they could could send up and down and Jackson is out of options and 36 years old to boot.

So yeah Doc I am a little confused myself.  Have to assume the moves to come will make this move make more sense?

Edit:  Reading more about him the Twins must be believers that last years numbers are for real and if they are he would be a very nice addition.  Wondering what the salary is going to be as I have to believe the Jays wanted him back.

Maybe the Jays want him back, like we want Berrios back. Do the Jays need a left-handed hitting right fielder? I sure do wish we could get Jose Berrios back some how some way. 

[arby58]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Over their careers, Ryan has average 1/4 if an inning more per start than DeSlafani.  Ober has averaged .11 inning less per start..

Correct - and from last year, Maeda was even less average innings pitched per start. I don't understand why DeSclafani has become such a show stopper for people. He's a pretty typical 5th starter. Last year in that role, Varland was 3-3, 5.30 ERA, 1.357 WHIP. Maeda was 6-7, 4.28 ERA, 1.178 WHIP. DeSclafani was 4-8, 4.72, 1.206.

[jorgenswest]

34 minutes ago, arby58 said:

The ones on the current Twins roster came from ESPN, those not came from Googling them. If it is off by a year somewhere, I assume that would be they are actually older - that would be the players no longer on the Twins' roster.

As for Varland - ready for what? He looked good at the end of the year in the BP. His starting line last year, OTOH, in MLB was 3-3, 5.30 ERA, 1.357 WHIP. Everybody's hated new possible 5th starter, was 4-8, 4.72 ERA, 1.206 WHIP. He may have also been playing through an injury.

Maybe you forgot to subtract a year on Gallo who was 29 a year ago at this time. Same for Gray. Both turned your listed age after the season.

Varland is in his age 26 season. There isn’t anything to accomplish in AAA. He doesn’t need to be on an innings limit. The only reason to keep him in AAA is if they have 13 better pitchers. The same probably was true of Ober last year. He may have been on an innings limit and starting in AAA would have resulted in less stressful innings.

Another difference is the reduced budget. At this budget they absolutely must develop their own inexpensive under control players. They might need to take a few more lumps as those players transition to the majors.

 

 

[arby58]

17 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Maybe the Jays want him back, like we want Berrios back. Do the Jays need a left-handed hitting right fielder? I sure do wish we could get Jose Berrios back some how some way. 

I think people are underestimating how good Bailey Ober can be. Last year, he was 8-6, 3.43 ERA, 1.067 WHIP. Berrios was 11-12, 3.65 ERA, 1.186 WHIP. Berrios is a great 'innings eater' pitcher, no doubt, but it's quite likely he would be the #3 starter for the Twins. Sure, that would be nice to have, but if they get Ober stretched out, he has better upside.

[arby58]

2 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Varland is in his age 26 season. There isn’t anything to accomplish in AAA. He doesn’t need to be on an innings limit. The only reason to keep him in AAA is if they have 13 better pitchers. The same probably was true of Ober last year. He may have been on an innings limit and starting in AAA would have resulted in less stressful innings.

Another difference is the reduced budget. At this budget they absolutely must develop their own inexpensive under control players. They might need to take a few more lumps as those players transition to the majors.

He needs to accomplish more on the field if he is going to be their #5 starter. DeSclafani had arguably a better performance last year (lower ERA, better WHIP) than Varland as a SP. 

[jorgenswest]

6 minutes ago, arby58 said:

He needs to accomplish more on the field if he is going to be their #5 starter. DeSclafani had arguably a better performance last year (lower ERA, better WHIP) than Varland as a SP. 

What is an acceptable performance for DeSclafini? 10% greater than league average ERA? 15%?

How many starts do you give DeSclafini without meeting that bar?

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The Duran to SP angle is really interesting.  The additions of Topa and Jackson open that avenue but I think it's a bit of a longshot.  Bullpens play a bigger role in the playoffs than they do in the regular season.  That said, I would welcome it because it would be a lot of fun to watch and they can always put him back in the BP if it fails.  

The "Duran to the rotation" bit is entirely driven by fans, not anything from team or player sources, though. There's really been no indicator at all that they have any interest or intention towards this kind of move. It might be fun to speculate about, but it's sort of like the "just move Royce Lewis to the OF" ideas that pop up during roster construction conversations. not just unlikely, so improbable as to border on impossible.

[stringer bell]

10 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Correct - and from last year, Maeda was even less average innings pitched per start. I don't understand why DeSclafani has become such a show stopper for people. He's a pretty typical 5th starter. Last year in that role, Varland was 3-3, 5.30 ERA, 1.357 WHIP. Maeda was 6-7, 4.28 ERA, 1.178 WHIP. DeSclafani was 4-8, 4.72, 1.206.

To me DeSclafani is a double-edged sword. I don't think his upside is that low. He signed a nice contract three years ago as a middle of the rotation starter. His problem since has been injuries. He only pitched 19 innings in 2022 and less than 100 last year. DeSclafani was very effective for his first six starts (1/3 of his season) and reasonable effective through May (11 starts). I have to believe that his ineffectiveness in his last seven starts (28 ER in 32.1 IP) was the result of injury and he was shut down after July 23rd. 

Why this is a double edged sword is that it's quite possible the Twins will get minimal innings out of him. I've seen here that he's not yet throwing in the off season, so he really might not provide depth to the rotation at all. The other side of this is, if he gets fully healthy, I think there's a great chance that he'll give the Twins a lot more than Kenta Maeda did last year. 

Honestly, I think the chances are greater that he is never healthy and thus a non-factor, but there is some hope that he could be a real contributor. Regardless, I don't see him as a Bundy type who is going to throw substandard stuff over the plate and hope that he has great command and good BABIP luck every time out.  

[HoskenPowell]

I still think Farmer or Vasquez are gonna be gone.....I'd prefer Vasquez , But I'm guessing Farmer might be more likely to be traded.  Some teams are shy on SS talent and I think Farmer could fill that need for a year or two yet.