Are the Tigers Really Coming?

[Ted Schwerzler]

Heading into the 2024 Major League Baseball regular season, the Minnesota Twins are seen as the best team in the AL Central. That said, a change of guard could soon come if the hometown nine don’t watch themselves. Are the Tigers ready to make that splash?

Image courtesy of © Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

 

Last season, the Twins were projected to finish behind the Cleveland Guardians when the season began. There were some that even though the Chicago White Sox, no matter how mismanaged or poorly executed they’d be, would be in the hunt as well. When the dust settled, no one kept up with Minnesota, but the Detroit Tigers overtook Cleveland for the second spot in the division.

With Chicago having talent ready to roll and needing a leader to put it all together, they made a catastrophic mistake in hiring Tony La Russa. That bought everyone else in the division time, but when the Detroit Tigers grabbed A.J. Hinch from the Houston Astros, the division should have been put on notice. With a World Series and two pennants in tow, it was only a matter of time before he put a young organization with a loaded farm in position to win.

Hinch’s Tigers wound up going 78-84 last season, five games better than their Pythagorean record suggested they should be. They took advantage of a weak division and separated themselves from the cellar dwellers while aiming at the Guardians. Catching the Twins in year one of a resurgence would never happen, but they could draw closer in 2024.

At Bovada, Minnesota is -115 favorites to repeat as division winners, but the Tigers are only slightly (+375) behind Cleveland (+350) for second place. BetOnline has Minnesota’s win total set at 85 1/2 games, with Detroit coming in behind them at 78 1/2. While Minnesota remains the only Central team with a winning record for the second straight year, Detroit being seen as within striking distance from the start could provide more of a challenge.

The Tigers have also ushered out the old wave with the retirement of Miguel Cabrera. They were never going to cut him loose without the farewell tour, but now the bulk of his dollars are off the books, and a key roster spot can be turned over to a usable player. Detroit has developed more of those in recent seasons, and they have also been looking to add this offseason.

After something of a slow start, former top prospect Spencer Torkelson emerged and showed some of the superstardom he was expected to possess. With 31 homers on the season and a series against the Twins that got him going, he could indeed step into the Cabrera role and be a dominant force within the division for years to come.

It isn’t just Torkelson offensively, though, for Hinch’s squad. Riley Green flashed abilities that had him the darling of multiple prospect lists, and rookie Kerry Carpenter looked the part of a regular in extended run last season. The franchise is undoubtedly hoping that Javier Baez can be any shred of the player they signed for a mega-deal, and if they get any return on that investment, their lineup will benefit in a big way.

We have seen competition shine in the Central through the pitching staff, and that’s where things could be most interesting for Detroit. Tarik Skubal may soon be one of the best pitchers in baseball, and former Twins prospect Sawyer Gipson-Long put in an impressive cameo to end the year. They still need to see Casey Mize return healthy and effective, while Matt Manning, Alex Faedo, and Reese Olson could all afford to settle in.

Over the winter, the Tigers have added intriguing arms like Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda. Minnesota’s previous starter is set to be their staff ace, which limits the group's overall ability, but he should present a stabilizing force for the staff. Flaherty has never shown an ability to stay healthy, but the stuff has always been exciting when it’s working. Lowered expectations in a smaller market could help, which may be what they are banking on.

While it’s probably unlikely that this is the year everything begins to come together, the Tigers aren’t done infusing talent, either. Max Clark is at least a year away, but he presents some of the best upside from any prospect in the sport. Colt Keith should see major league action this season, and so could Jace Jung. Pitching prospects Jackson Jobe, Ty Madden, and Wilmer Flores all have varying degrees of big-league opportunity this season. If Detroit can continue their development, the water level will only rise higher.

Ultimately, the Tigers are coming, but they aren’t there yet. If the Guardians piece out Shane Bieber and others, then Detroit should be expected to take over the second spot in the division. That does likely come with a losing record, and Minnesota should cruise to the title, but still, this is an organization that is larger in the rearview mirror than may initially appear.

 

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Detroit does seem like a fun/young team to follow. I do think losing both Rodriguez and Lorenzen from their 2023 rotation is a bigger loss than what adding only Maeda and Flaherty can bring back to them, at least so far. That said, Skubal and Reese Olson are absolutely fun to get behind. I don't think they have enough of a lineup yet, but they do have some prospects who are close.

I don't like their pitching, overall, anywhere near as much as Cleveland or Minnesota as currently constructed. But I do like their lineup an awful lot more than Cleveland. 

 

[Trov]

You never know how they will do this year.  Although they had some young guys have good stretches, you never know if they will regress or build on it. I do think they will be biggest competitor to Twins.  

[NotAboutWinning]

13 minutes ago, Trov said:

You never know how they will do this year.  Although they had some young guys have good stretches, you never know if they will regress or build on it. I do think they will be biggest competitor to Twins.  

… and they definitely had the Twins number last year!

[stringer bell]

Detroit overachieved in the division and according to Pythagorean computation they should have won five less games. I don't take them as a true contender, but they are getting closer. They'll certainly get better production out of the DH spot this year and they have acquired some decent veteran players. I think .500 will be a worthy goal for them and they should be a few games above or below that. 

[RpR]

44 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Detroit overachieved in the division and according to Pythagorean computation they should have won five less games. I don't take them as a true contender, but they are getting closer. They'll certainly get better production out of the DH spot this year and they have acquired some decent veteran players. I think .500 will be a worthy goal for them and they should be a few games above or below that. 

Better trade in the Pythagorean computer for a Commodore 64.

[DJL44]

Detroit has room in the budget to add at the deadline. I don't see them having a fire sale that gives the Twins the division title like Cleveland did last year.

[Major League Ready]

Their best position players last year were very young players just like the Twins.  Our experienced players are better and deeper.  Their big free agent (Baez) was absolutely brutal.  I like the odds of Correa bouncing back better than Baez.   The potential big difference maker is we have Buxton.  He might produce nothing but he could have a huge impact.  We also have Kepler assuming he is not traded.  

[sweetmusicviola16]

Pretty hard to predict  how the division is going to line up yet at this stage of the season since the Twins have not started their off season yet.

Detroit imo will be a bit better. KC is better. CWS cannot be any worse and Cleveland will be tough as always. Twins right now have lost 12-13 WAR in talent and have replaced them only with unknowns from within at this point. Right now I'd say the Twins win the AL Central by no more than 2-3 games.

[chpettit19]

I wouldn't bet on any team in the division overtaking the Twins, but there's a lot of young talent on all the squads. Chicago is in a bit of a no-man's land situation as they have one of the best players in the division (Luis Robert), but are just a complete mess overall as an organization. The Royals, Guardians, and Tigers all have some young guys that have shown real MLB talent with a handful of more talent on the way. Detroit and KC have at least tried to improve on the edges of their teams with some veteran additions, but any of those 3 teams could see their young talent take steps forward and give the Twins a real run for the division. Still more likely to be the worst division in baseball, but it should be an improved terrible division.

As for the Tigers alone, Colt Keith and Jace Jung hitting the ground running this season could really change their offense. Keith especially probably holds a lot of their fortunes in his hands.

[Riverbrian]

I won't write off or overlook any of the 5 teams in the Central... even the White Sox. 

The Tigers have a lot of young talent and more young talent to try. 

The rotation isn't horrible. Dare I say... the rotation has upside.  

[Heiny]

Well, there is a very good reason they play the games.  Predictions are just that.  Remember, even Custer got beat by the Guardians.

[Heiny]

Just now, Heiny said:

Well, there is a very good reason they play the games.  Predictions are just that.  Remember, even Custer got beat by the Guardians.

LOL, I just had to try.  But apparently even AI is politically correct.

[mikelink45]

I like how they are trying to improve - let's see what Hinch can do.  I am also mildly surprised by KC's moves.  Those two teams are more interesting right now than Chicago and Cleveland.

[Blyleven2011]

I would like to believe the Twins will cruise to the division title but it never seems they can cruise ....

Playing game to game with no killer instincts ( tomorrow's another day) , your just a 500 team  ...

Ten game winning streaks and we will capitalize  on cruising to the division  , otherwise it will be as usual  , fans will be asking themselves  , can the Twins maintain their 3 of 4 game lead  in the month of September to win the division  ...

I sure hope we find some quality pitching , ( starters and relief  ) , our starters are our big winners in 2023 , if it wasn't for them keeping us in the games , Detroit would have won the division with a losing record ...

Until the Twins bats woke up after that Atlanta series , it definitely was looking like someone was going to win the Central in 2023 with a losing record  ...

I'm all for the winning streaks as that separates teams from the other in the standings  , I prefer 10 game winning streaks  , but you can't always get what you want  ...

 

[Ted Schwerzler]

5 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Pretty hard to predict  how the division is going to line up yet at this stage of the season since the Twins have not started their off season yet.

Right now I'd say the Twins win the AL Central by no more than 2-3 games.

Obviously this is hypothetical because the Twins will make moves and the we won’t see this play out, but I’d take the Twins by 7-8 games if the season started today.

[tony&rodney]

8 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Right now I'd say the Twins win the AL Central by no more than 2-3 games.

That's good, i will take it.

[awmonahan]

If they get a good start it could be interesting. Young teams that seem a year away have a way of jump starting a winning cycle. On paper, I like the Twins, but the FO's complacency is practically begging for us to get ambushed by a young, upstart team. 

[Whitey333]

The division remains weak and winnable by most if the teams.  It could easily be said that the Tigers and the Twibs overachiever last year.  To the Twins credit they took advantage of thr other teams seemingly unwillingness to be competitive.  As for the Twins needing starting and relief pitching, don't forget we had it last year.  Could have had it this year by keeping what they had.  But they seem unable or unwilling to pay the market rates for proven quality.  They had that right in the palm of their hand and let them leave.  I hope the division is much more competitive this year.  I think that could make the Twins even better.

[JD-TWINS]

22 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Detroit does seem like a fun/young team to follow. I do think losing both Rodriguez and Lorenzen from their 2023 rotation is a bigger loss than what adding only Maeda and Flaherty can bring back to them, at least so far. That said, Skubal and Reese Olson are absolutely fun to get behind. I don't think they have enough of a lineup yet, but they do have some prospects who are close.

I don't like their pitching, overall, anywhere near as much as Cleveland or Minnesota as currently constructed. But I do like their lineup an awful lot more than Cleveland. 

 

Completely agree on the pitching……it seems the National Pundits only focus on the adds of Maeda & Flaherty but nobody mentions the trade of Lorenzen & the bigger loss of Rodriguez in free agency. IMO, they lose in that exchange of guys. Shelby Miller & Chafin are experienced Pen arms but getting on in their careers……nothing dominant.

Their hitters are coming and it seems if they can get near .500 they may spend some of those available $$ on another guy at the deadline………Baez is a big wildcard for them & probably a reminder of why they should build with youth.

Cleveland & their pitching, aside of Bieber is always an issue. Losing Tito will have some effect in our favor, I think.

K.C. has made some nice pitching moves with the Texas trade last year and the other 3 FA pitchers signed…….much better than running Grienke out there every 5th day. Witt is a star! 

Should be fun to watch!

[Cory Engelhardt]

28 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Completely agree on the pitching……it seems the National Pundits only focus on the adds of Maeda & Flaherty but nobody mentions the trade of Lorenzen & the bigger loss of Rodriguez in free agency. IMO, they lose in that exchange of guys. Shelby Miller & Chafin are experienced Pen arms but getting on in their careers……nothing dominant.

Their hitters are coming and it seems if they can get near .500 they may spend some of those available $$ on another guy at the deadline………Baez is a big wildcard for them & probably a reminder of why they should build with youth.

Cleveland & their pitching, aside of Bieber is always an issue. Losing Tito will have some effect in our favor, I think.

K.C. has made some nice pitching moves with the Texas trade last year and the other 3 FA pitchers signed…….much better than running Grienke out there every 5th day. Witt is a star! 

Should be fun to watch!

Agreed on Witt. I could absolutely see him being the most talented player in the AL in 2024. Star is a good way of putting it.

[harmony55]

Looking through the narrow lense of departed free agents, the Detroit Tigers need to replace the combined 3.1 fWAR posted , last year by Eduardo Rodriguez, Miguel Cabrera, Matthew Boyd and Jose Cisnero.

Through the same narrow lense, the Twins need to replace the combined 12.0 fWAR posted last year by Sonny Gray, Michael Taylor, Kenta Maeda, Donovan Solano, Emilio Pagan, Joey Gallo, Tyler Mahle and Dallas Keuchel.

The Tigers, who won 78 games in 2023, have added Maeda, Jack Flaherty and Andrew Chafin to their 40-man roster while the Twins, who won 87 games last year, have added Josh Staumont, Bubba Thompson and Ryan Jensen.

Those narrow lenses don't tell the full story but the Twins will rely on touted products of the farm system to fill the gaps left by the departed free agents.

[nicksaviking]

I don't buy into the Tigers. First, their pitching stinks. They had all of those high end prospects, and outside of Skubel, they all ended up being pitch to contact back of the rotation types. And not that I wish it, but that elbow strain Skubel played through tends to sound like an issue that will need to be dealt with in the future.

I like Greene, he looks like he could really break out, and Carpenter was a nice late draft find (same draft as Twins late round steals Julien and Varland too, interestingly), but I'm not impressed with Torkelson. His minor league numbers are not translating to the majors, between the prospect pedigree, position and strikeouts, he looks exactly like Miguel Sano.

[Cory Engelhardt]

34 minutes ago, harmony55 said:

Looking through the narrow lense of departed free agents, the Detroit Tigers need to replace the combined 3.1 fWAR posted , last year by Eduardo Rodriguez, Miguel Cabrera, Matthew Boyd and Jose Cisnero.

Through the same narrow lense, the Twins need to replace the combined 12.0 fWAR posted last year by Sonny Gray, Michael Taylor, Kenta Maeda, Donovan Solano, Emilio Pagan, Joey Gallo, Tyler Mahle and Dallas Keuchel.

The Tigers, who won 78 games in 2023, have added Maeda, Jack Flaherty and Andrew Chafin to their 40-man roster while the Twins, who won 87 games last year, have added Josh Staumont, Bubba Thompson and Ryan Jensen.

Those narrow lenses don't tell the full story but the Twins will rely on touted products of the farm system to fill the gaps left by the departed free agents.

The Tigers run differential was -79, which equates to more of a 73 win season. Luck played a part.

The Twins run differential was +119, which equates to more like a 94 win season. Luck also played a part.

Getting Correa healthy (and not having plantar fascitis) along with Buxton able to play will arguably help more than any addition otherwise, no? Possibly add Miranda into that too.

The Twins will be fine.

[sweetmusicviola16]

12 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

That's good, i will take it.

A win is a win right? I prefer dominance myself. I kind of have the same mentality as Blyleven 2011, I like 10 game winning streaks. I'd like to see the team win 100 and win the division by 15 or 20 games. This team won't do that. But back to the beginning, a win is a win.

[TopGunn#22]

I know I'm frustrated that the Twins BIG move so far is to have signed Bubba Thompson to play at St. Paul all year, but even so, I don't see the Tigers challenging them in 2024, outside of Skubal their pitching is BAD. 

I see a last place finish for the mess in Chicago.  I see Bobby Witt Jr. as the clear best player in the division and while the Royals have made a few moves they are still a long ways away.  That leaves Cleveland.  THIS is the team that I truly fear and it comes down to pitching.  If they hang onto Bieber and McKenzie returns to form they have two outstanding starters at the top of their rotation, great young SP's in Allen, Bibee and Gavin Williams and the best closer in the American League (Clase).  They have enough offense in Ramirez, Kwan, the Naylor brothers, Gimenez and Manzardo.  And a key pickup here or there could make a difference.

When you can pitch like Cleveland can, you have to respect that.  Especially if McKenzie returns to form.  He's a real Wild Card.

[Cory Engelhardt]

6 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I know I'm frustrated that the Twins BIG move so far is to have signed Bubba Thompson to play at St. Paul all year, but even so, I don't see the Tigers challenging them in 2024, outside of Skubal their pitching is BAD. 

I see a last place finish for the mess in Chicago.  I see Bobby Witt Jr. as the clear best player in the division and while the Royals have made a few moves they are still a long ways away.  That leaves Cleveland.  THIS is the team that I truly fear and it comes down to pitching.  If they hang onto Bieber and McKenzie returns to form they have two outstanding starters at the top of their rotation, great young SP's in Allen, Bibee and Gavin Williams and the best closer in the American League (Clase).  They have enough offense in Ramirez, Kwan, the Naylor brothers, Gimenez and Manzardo.  And a key pickup here or there could make a difference.

When you can pitch like Cleveland can, you have to respect that.  Especially if McKenzie returns to form.  He's a real Wild Card.

I'm not sure I can agree with saying that Cleveland "has enough offense." I mean, will there by 5 teams in baseball (Oakland not withstanding) that will have a worse lineup? I'm not certain.

But their pitching should be really good once again.

[chpettit19]

I don't think Detroit's pitching is great, but if you're going to bank on the idea that the Twins will be better because they're young and will improve don't you have to be a little worried about Detroit? Matt Manning is 26 and had a 3.58 ERA in 15 starts last year. Reese Olsen is 24 and had a 3.99 ERA in 18 starts last year. Casey Mize is 26 and had a 3.71 ERA in 30 starts in 2021 before getting hurt in 2022 and missing 2023. Tarik Skubal is 27 and had a 2.80 ERA in 15 starts last year after having a 3.52 ERA in 21 starts in 2022. Jack Flaherty has been really good in the past, but is certainly not the big name he was when he first came up. Many are upset the Twins let Maeda get away. Former Twin prospect Sawyer Gipson-Long is 26 and had a wonderful debut last year with a 2.70 ERA in 4 starts.

Again, not predicting the Tigers win the division or anything, but if we're all excited about the Twins because of their young talent and the expectation that they improve I don't think we should be acting like there's not a real chance Detroit takes a step forward this year. If Keith and/or Jung can do what Julien and Wallner did last year the Tigers could have a pretty nice top of the lineup with them Torkelson, Carpenter, and Greene. Mark Canha is a solid MLB hitter. 

There's a AL Central contender in there if you squint a little.

[sweetmusicviola16]

13 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think Detroit's pitching is great, but if you're going to bank on the idea that the Twins will be better because they're young and will improve don't you have to be a little worried about Detroit? Matt Manning is 26 and had a 3.58 ERA in 15 starts last year. Reese Olsen is 24 and had a 3.99 ERA in 18 starts last year. Casey Mize is 26 and had a 3.71 ERA in 30 starts in 2021 before getting hurt in 2022 and missing 2023. Tarik Skubal is 27 and had a 2.80 ERA in 15 starts last year after having a 3.52 ERA in 21 starts in 2022. Jack Flaherty has been really good in the past, but is certainly not the big name he was when he first came up. Many are upset the Twins let Maeda get away. Former Twin prospect Sawyer Gipson-Long is 26 and had a wonderful debut last year with a 2.70 ERA in 4 starts.

Again, not predicting the Tigers win the division or anything, but if we're all excited about the Twins because of their young talent and the expectation that they improve I don't think we should be acting like there's not a real chance Detroit takes a step forward this year. If Keith and/or Jung can do what Julien and Wallner did last year the Tigers could have a pretty nice top of the lineup with them Torkelson, Carpenter, and Greene. Mark Canha is a solid MLB hitter. 

There's a AL Central contender in there if you squint a little.

I also recall by my own experience, and by the posting of many others, that the Twins were deemed unwatchable  through almost mid-August. This team sputtered greatly for a great deal of the 2023 campaign. Now did that struggle lead to this team becoming a more mature team because of it? We shall see. But I agree with you. If the Twins in their youthfulness can become better it stands to reason that Detroit should be able to as well.

 

This team has it's own question marks. It starts with Buxton, Correa and Kiriloff. And carries over to the starting rotation and anybody not named Lopez. I can't with any kind of honesty not call Paddock and Varland question marks. Ryan to a fair degree as well. At this point I'm feeling more secure on Ober and can almost take the question mark off of him.

[sweetmusicviola16]

To add to my own post: I'll add our bullpen to the question marks. Aside from Duran our pen is pretty meh. We have done next to nothing to improve it. Staumont is it. If you can call him an improvement. Yes Stewart was really good for his 25 IP or so. But he also has a long history of injuries in case anyone has forgotten that.