Emmanuel Rodriguez and the Range of Outcomes

[Nick Nelson]

Emmanuel Rodriguez is one of the most intriguing prospects in the Twins system, and there's little doubt his name is being brought up in trade discussions (at least by other teams) as the front office looks to land a front-end starter before spring training.

In some respects, Rodriguez looks like a logical candidate to trade. But he also has qualities of a player who could make you regret the decision for many years to come.

Image courtesy of Steve Buhr, Twins Daily

Back in 2019, when the Twins signed 16-year-old Dominican outfielder Emmanuel Rodriguez for a $2.5 million as an international free agent, MLB's Jesse Sanchez described him as "the next Eddie Rosario." It's easy to see why that comparison would feel natural.

At the time, Rosario was a leading figure on the breakthrough Bomba Squad, who ended up winning 100 games and setting the all-time home run record. Rodriguez, like Rosario, was a lefty-swinging outfielder with surprising power from his smallish frame. Even right down to their makeup and mannerisms, you can see similarities between the two: their competitive swagger, their contagious smiles, their flair for dramatics.

One can understand why the Emma/Eddie parallel felt fitting at the time, and in some ways, it still feels fitting. But in another way, it has proven to be hilariously off-base, because the ways in which these two approach hitting could not be more different.

Rosario has carved out a very nice major-league career, while establishing a firm reputation as one of the least disciplined sluggers in the league. That hyperaggression keeps his ceiling something less than vaulted. During the Bomba Squad season, when he launched 32 homers to contribute to their historic total, Rosario drew 22 walks in 590 plate appearances. His 3.7% walk rate was was fifth-lowest in the league. Throughout his career, he has routinely been one of the hitters most likely to chase pitches out of the zone.

Rodriguez, on the other hand, is among the most patient hitters ever to come through the Minnesota system. His 20.2% walk rate at Cedar Rapids last year led the Midwest League by a sizable margin. The prior season, he had a ridiculous 28.6% walk rate in the Florida State League, before going down with a knee injury.

It's a strength that could become a weakness for the 20-year-old, making his big-league outlook tough to confidently project. "At times, Rodriguez’s extreme patience can border on passivity, and he’ll likely need to get more aggressive to combat polished strike-throwers," wrote Aaron Gleeman in his top prospects list at The Athletic. "Constantly being in deep counts without great contact skills has led to an underwhelming .242 batting average and 30 percent strikeout rate, both potential red flags for such a talented top prospect."

The reality is that a lot of pitchers in the minors have a hard time throwing strikes consistently. Certain hitters are good at taking advantage of this, leading to inflated walk rates, and often, those hitters are treated as novelties. Edouard Julien, for example, was still not much on the national prospect radar after leading the Double-A Texas League with a 19.3% walk rate in 2022. He also ranked third in OPS. He appeared on zero prominent top-100 lists last spring.

In a recent video breaking down the Emmanuel Rodriguez experience, Tom Froemming noted the statistical similarities between Rodriguez and Julien, who has ended up being the better "Eddie" comp. Both have been outliers when it comes to drawing walks in the minors. We saw how well that translated to the majors for Julien, who was a unicorn in terms of discipline and also one of the league's best rookie hitters.

The key for Julien has been his ability to selectively attack early in the count and punish mistake pitches. He has legitimate power, and in this regard, Rodriguez has a bigger edge. As we saw, power was the outfielder's calling card when he signed at age 16, and it continues to flash in big ways on the field. When Rodriguez gets a hold of one, he can crush it, helping him produce 35 home runs and a .495 slugging percentage through 183 games as a pro.

While Julien was largely flying under the radar as a prospect, Rodriguez is not. MLB Pipeline currently has him ranked as the No. 48 overall prospect in baseball. It's generally agreed that while he ranks third in Minnesota's system, he'd be first in a lot of others. Even with his known struggles to make contact, Rodriguez's power/patience combo is too enticing in its upside. You don't find this kind of skill set often.

Last year, only three qualified MLB players had a walk rate above 15%: Juan Soto, Kyle Schwarber, Shohei Ohtani. Lower the qualified threshold to 300 plate appearances and you've only got eight players (including Julien) who met that standard. That's 2.7 percent of the entire player pool. 

You'll be hard-pressed to find a single bad offensive player among this ultra-patient cohort. Each of the eight had a wRC+ of 115 or better. Schwarber had the lowest on-base percentage, at .343, but he had a .197 batting average. He also hit 47 homers and drove in 108 runs. Schwarber exemplifies how this offensive profile can elevate a player beyond his contact struggles. Julien, Ryan Noda and Brandon Belt all had K-rates above 30% to go along with their 15% walk rates, but were solidly above-average offensive producers, nonetheless.

So while the questions surrounding Rodriguez at this point mainly pertain to his floor, there's a good argument that his extreme level of patience–combined with power and defensive value–give E-Rod a fairly sturdy one. Meanwhile, his upside resides at the level of Soto and Aaron Judge: players capable of drawing 100 walks while hitting 30 to 40 home runs. Those are elite offensive forces who can win multiple MVP awards.

All of this the Twins must weigh, in their pursuit of frontline starting pitching. To land a true prize capable of becoming a long-term fixture atop the rotation, they'll likely need to be willing to part with a talent of this caliber. Comparing Rodriguez to No. 2 prospect Brooks Lee (whose name, along with that of Julien, is also being bandied about in hypothetical trade scenarios) creates an interesting floor-versus-ceiling dichotomy. Which do you value more: the colossal upside of a Rodriguez or the stable certainty of a Lee?

We'll likely know a lot more about Rodriguez and his true potential after this 2024 season, as he takes his game to the high minors and contends with higher-caliber pitching. One could very easily see him ascending to the highest tier of prospects, or fading dramatically because of his passivity and contact issues. That's what makes this such a pivotal moment. 

I wrote recently about how good the Twins front office has been at replacing stars they trade away. Structurally, they are currently set up to do so in Rodriguez's case, with several lefty-swinging outfielders on hand (including Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach), plus the new No. 1 prospect Walker Jenkins poised to rise fast.

But if Rodriguez turns into what he could turn into, there's no replacing that. If he develops into the production equivalent of Eddie Rosario, that's not a horrible outcome. As Rosario has, he can have a solid career. The Twins will still feel okay about trading him to get the rotation boost they needed, just as they feel fine about trading Luis Arráez for Pablo López last January. If Rodriguez turns into anything approximating the production equivalent of Juan Soto, though, that's a franchise-altering miscue that will be lamented for decades. 

These are the kinds of weighty decisions being considered by a front office equipped with a top-heavy farm system; a clear need at the front of the rotation; and limited funds with which to address that need. The high stakes make for an exciting yet harrowing moment of reckoning for Derek Falvey and the Twins.

Would you be open to dealing Rodriguez, if that's what it takes to acquire a multi-year Pablo López co-ace, such as Jesus Luzardo or Logan Gilbert (whom Jamie Cameron wrote about here on Monday)? Or is your attitude more of a keep-at-all-costs, even if that means trading Lee instead, or aiming lower in your scale of starting pitching acquisition?

This winter might be the last chance to trade Rodriguez while his value is sky-high--or it might be the last time time trading him even feels remotely plausible.

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[Eris]

Is Rodriguez a legit MLB CF. Who would be a good comparison for his defensive capabilities. Last I looked, the Twins have major uncertainties in CF, and it would be not wise to trade someone who could man CF for years. If he profiles as a corner outfielder than it is a different discussion. 

[tony&rodney]

Emmanuel has stats that fall oddly in various places. He has better numbers versus left-handed pitchers and late in games. It is tough to take anything away from an analysis of all of his numbers. Via milb.com or by going to a few games though a few items seem pertinent about EmRod. Most noticeable is that his bat gets through the zone in a hurry. He is athletic and knows the strike zone. The one thing that seemed to stick out as a negative is that Rodriguez gives at bats away. There are times he seems disinterested with poor results following. However, when the game calls for something he sure looked like a guy you wanted at the plate. From watching dozens of his at bats my takeaway is that the young outfielder is just a bit immature. His placement on the 40 person roster puts him a few injuries down the list from MLB. My guess (or hunch) is that we should see the best of EmRod this year in terms of where he may be headed as a baseball player. I have seen performances from him last year to indicate a top ten global prospect. Only the consistency is missing. 

By himself, Rodriguez will not return a #2 starting pitcher because his performance has not totally blown people away. The ceiling is too high to ignore the future value. While a ER for Kirby trade would be worthy for the Twins, there is no way Seattle takes that gamble. Anything less is a poor gamble for the Twins. I'm firmly in the Do Not Trade camp on Emmanuel Rodriguez. While he may not reach MVP status in the next few years, his outstanding ability to see the strike zone along with his quick powerful swing make his chances to excel at the highest level pretty good.

[Karbo]

I wonder how much of an effect the automated strike zone in the minors has? And then they get to the majors and have a very inconsistent zone? That would take a while to adapt too I would think.

[kenneth frank]

Rather than trade away an asset or assets now is the perfect time to invest in the teams future by signing a starter like Jordan Montgomery. i believe that would be a long term investment that would pay huge dividends.

[Fatbat]

No FO trades 7+ years Juan Soto or anyone that has a legitimate chance at being a similar type player.  You can always package an Eddie Rosario with others to get a decent trade return but no one trades away franchise guys that are just starting to build their value. 

[Trov]

I find the knock on E-Rod is he may be too patient.  First, a high K-rate will happen with a high walk rate too, it means he goes deep into counts.  I never think a young guy taking walks is a bad thing.  The hope is he will have more of a plan when pitchers get better.  Right now he is most likely not chasing much.  If he starts taking fastballs down the pipe early in counts that is one thing, but it shows at least for now he is not chasing a ton.  Yes, he may not have great contact skills, but at same time if his contact skills are bad, will that improve by attacking pitches early in counts that are borderline strikes simply to be more aggressive?  I do not know how much scouting Gleeman has done of E-Rod, I have done none, but to draw a conclusion based on stats is a poor way to evaluate a player.  Maybe he is taking good strikes to be patient, but maybe he is taking close pitches for both balls and strikes and not swinging at pitchers pitches. Without watching him I would not know.  I sure assume the team knows though. 

[Nashvilletwin]

Which do you value more: the colossal upside of a Rodriguez or the stable certainty of a Lee?
 

The answer is clearly both.

Ted recently listed his top 15 prospects on another post. Among them were six pitchers, including two, Raya and Festa, who are in the top 5 and are both projected to make their Twins debuts no later than 2025.

What if our FO thinks that along with Lopez as our clear #1, we actually have a strong stable of contenders to be legit #2-3s for several years to come? Ober, Ryan, Varland, Paddock, Raya and Festa (plus a few others) could easily develop into a very deep, talented, and relatively cheap starting staff with Lopez.

With the Twins salary constraints, young controllable potential stars are gold.  The Twins have Lewis, Lee, Jenkins, Rodriguez, Jeffers and Julien (and possibly Martin and the underrated Wallner) as cheap multi year assets who project anywhere from solid, above average MLB regulars to all star potential to MVP candidates.  Those are up to eight position players (and there are some others) - an entire lineup in the field outside of the pitcher.

Maybe, just maybe, our FO thinks the best path is to pretty much stay the course in 2024 (which still projects to winning the division and seeing where things fall after that) while letting both our pitching and position player prospects gestate in anticipation of entering a true multi-season open window that fits neatly into our budget constraints.

Patience can be a virtue. It is reasonable to keep both Lee and Rodriguez for now as they both have future all star potential and our near term controllable legit #2 and #3 starters may already be in the system.

 

[sweetmusicviola16]

42 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

No FO trades 7+ years Juan Soto or anyone that has a legitimate chance at being a similar type player.  You can always package an Eddie Rosario with others to get a decent trade return but no one trades away franchise guys that are just starting to build their value. 

Agree. 100%

[tony&rodney]

Some have wondered if EmRod is too patient and whether he takes strikes right down the middle. Based just on about 75 at bats that I have watched, the knowledge of the strike zone is real. I cannot comment on whether he is too patient. He does, in fact, take a number of pitches middle middle in the zone. These are rarely with guys on base or late in a close game. I wonder (we will not hear) what his coaches say about his concentration at times. He seems (as i said above) to give away at bats. I expect this potential issue to go away once he sees the prize and money of MLB; he will grow considerably in his attention to details IMHO.

[Jamie Cameron]

Enjoyed this piece a ton. Came to mention that I think the tension in E-Rod's skill set is best summed up a question: Assuming he can become more aggressive earlier in counts, can he improve his contact%? In 2023 it was around 68%, which, I think is indicative that there's a/some holes in his swing (especially as he hasn't played at AA yet). If he can improve contact, even marginally, It'd be much easier to forecast good to great future value. Big season ahead for sure. 

[jmlease1]

I generally feel like almost no prospect should be considered untouchable; there's a gazillion things that can go wrong even with guys that have the highest upside, most projectable skills, and demonstrated minor league production. But your absolute best prospects need to be guarded carefully and only moved for players that increase your ceiling as a team and will get you guaranteed multiple years. No rentals, and I'm not interested in dealing the best guys to raise the floor of a team, even if there is a gaping hole on the roster.

Emmanuel Rodriguez is more challenging to project than some top prospects. He can play CF, but he's not likely to stick there and his tools don't project him to be a great OF anywhere (that said, he should be at least above average in the corners and certainly isn't bad out there at all). His patience is pretty spectacular and having a great eye at the plate is a skill that can translate all the way up the ladder. His contact rates are a little concerning, but the ball explodes off his bat. I think it's probably easier to teach a player to be a little more aggressive at the plate than to go the other way, but does Rodriguez need real work on his contact skills? What kind of holes does he have in his swing and can those be toned down? He's a real test for talent evaluation and player development, because the ceiling is incredibly high, but the floor isn't all that high.

If you don't think he can make enough contact as he rises in the org, is going to get taken advantage of for not jumping on his pitch earlier in counts as pitchers get more sophisticated and skilled, and that he definitely cannot play MLB-quality CF...then dealing him for a big haul is a smart play. But if you get your evaluation wrong, it really will come back to haunt you. David Ortiz has haunted the org for a long time, but a lot of teams missed on him before Boston took a flier. Getting it wrong on Rodriguez would be a bigger indictment of the organization.

Tough one. Really, really tough.

As long as his ceiling is this high, I would have trouble trading him.

[Dman]

5 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Which do you value more: the colossal upside of a Rodriguez or the stable certainty of a Lee?
 

The answer is clearly both.

Ted recently listed his top 15 prospects on another post. Among them were six pitchers, including two, Raya and Festa, who are in the top 5 and are both projected to make their Twins debuts no later than 2025.

What if our FO thinks that along with Lopez as our clear #1, we actually have a strong stable of contenders to be legit #2-3s for several years to come? Ober, Ryan, Varland, Paddock, Raya and Festa (plus a few others) could easily develop into a very deep, talented, and relatively cheap starting staff with Lopez.

With the Twins salary constraints, young controllable potential stars are gold.  The Twins have Lewis, Lee, Jenkins, Rodriguez, Jeffers and Julien (and possibly Martin and the underrated Wallner) as cheap multi year assets who project anywhere from solid, above average MLB regular to all star potential to MVP candidates.  That is eight position players - an entire lineup in the field outside of the pitcher.

Maybe, just maybe, our FO thinks the best path is to pretty much stay the course in 2024 (which still projects to winning the division and seeing where things fall after that) while letting both our pitching and position player prospects gestate in anticipation of entering a true multi-season open window that fits neatly into our budget constraints.

Patience can be a virtue. It is reasonable to keep both Lee and Rodriguez for now as they both have future all star potential and our near term controllable legit #2 and #3 starters may already be in the system.

 

I am starting to think along these lines as well.  I get trading future assets for a top of the rotation arm but for small market teams it seems like you take that risk when you have an offense you feel you can depend on and some depth behind it.  There is so much uncertainty with Buxton, Correa, Wallner, Kepler, Jullien, Jeffers, Larnach, Castro, Kirillof, Miranda that is this really the time to take that kind of risk?  You might get your pitcher but the offense could tank everything.  There are so many young guys and vets that didn't play well last year It seems unlikely we know what we have on offense.  Lee, Rodriguez, Festa could be players that make a large difference if other players regress.

As you mentioned for a team that takes revenue sharing young players are the gold standard to competitive sustainability.  That is why Tampa, Oakland, Cleveland trade players as they are getting expensive for younger talent that is less expensive.  The Twins would be doing the opposite of that in this scenario. Depleting the young high end talent pool and picking up a player that would be more expensive over time.

I get that lot's of prospects even high end ones don't always work out. There is risk both ways. Maybe this offense is ready to take the next step and getting that better pitching staff becomes a real difference making decision.  Anything is possible so it all has to be thought through.

For me Lee seems like a just in time player to replace the more Expensive Polanco and guard against Jullien staying at 2nd base and also insurance for the oft injured Lewis.  Rodriguez is a potential just in time player to replace Kepler and push Wallner to Left field where he can gun down guys on close plays at home plate.  Jenkins is hard to predict but he could fill out center field when he makes it. Festa and Raya look like they have the stuff to be mid rotation arms and possibly top of the rotation if things fall right. It is all potential right now though.  There is the possibility none of them reach their ceiling or even make it to MLB. 

Still with so many question marks for this team it doesn't feel like the right time to make a risky trade for a top of the rotation starter to me.  I agree with you that the answers might be in house, but there is risk in just standing pat although if this team is for real they could add at the trade deadline as well.

I like Rodriguez's chances to be a difference making player.  I have my concerns about the holes in the swing but he is patient enough to make it all work IMO. I still see a Polanco trade happening as that is what smaller market teams do.  I don't trust Paddock to make it the entire year so it feels like they need starting pitching depth.  How they get it I am not sure. Still like you I could see them essentially standing pat to see what they really have before making crucial decisions.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

43 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

As long as his ceiling is this high, I would have trouble trading him.

Exactly.  If you think a guy has a chance to really be a star, you have to hang onto him unless you get someone else who you think is more likely to be a star, or one who fits your needs better.  In this case, a pitcher might fit the Twins' needs even more than Rodriguez, but so far I can't find one available that I think is any more of a sure thing than Rodriguez is.  I'm guessing that is what is happening to the Twins front office as well. 

If the upside for Rodriguez is just "solid/good" with an occasional flash of brilliance (Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Danny Ford, Matt Lawton, Brian Dozier) then it's OK to trade him for something more helpful.  However, if you think the upside is in the "multiple all-star/MVP" category (Puckett, Oliva, non-injured Morneau) you have to keep him around because it would be very painful to watch and probably detrimental to your team.  For me, Rodriguez is in that second category, which makes him too intriguing to trade. 

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Fatbat said:

No FO trades 7+ years Juan Soto or anyone that has a legitimate chance at being a similar type player.  You can always package an Eddie Rosario with others to get a decent trade return but no one trades away franchise guys that are just starting to build their value. 

Top prospects are traded all the time. Like in the first Soto deal (James Wood and CJ Abrams). Or the Castillo to Seattle deal (Noelvi Marte is a higher ranked prospect than Rodriguez). Scherzer to Texas got the Mets Luisangel Acuna who's ranked higher than Rodriguez. The Mets got a similarly ranked Drew Gilbert for Verlander. Michael Busch is older, but better ranked in some circles and was just traded to the Cubs like a week ago. Jarred Kelenic was the Mets #3 prospect and top 50ish global prospect when he was traded to Seattle. Rodriguez type prospects are traded all the time.

And many of them who aren't traded don't even come close to touching their potential. Jo Adell was a better prospect than Rodriguez and his career is hanging by a thread. Taylor Trammell, Victor Robles, Keston Hiura, Joey Bart, Carter Kieboom, Brendan McKay. The list goes on and on. That's the risk reward challenge the FO faces.

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, Fatbat said:

No FO trades 7+ years Juan Soto or anyone that has a legitimate chance at being a similar type player.  You can always package an Eddie Rosario with others to get a decent trade return but no one trades away franchise guys that are just starting to build their value. 

(I am replied to your comment because you mentioned Soto and your post was short, could have replied to any of them)

We need to stop comparing him to Soto or Soto type of player. Soto K'd 14% in the minors and hit .362 in the minors at age 17,18,19. He hit .292 and .282 in the majors and K'd at a 20% rate at the same age ERod has been the last two years.

Soto is an All-World generational talent (close to the same age as Julien, Martin, and younger than Wallner) who already has MVP votes in 4 years, comparing ERod to Soto or Soto type player sets him up for failure.

ERod has an absolute high ceiling and potential but should be compared to other type of  all star type players (maybe Yelich, Schwarber, Bellinger).  With that said I wouldn't trade him unless it was something that was too good to be true.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Some have wondered if EmRod is too patient and whether he takes strikes right down the middle. Based just on about 75 at bats that I have watched, the knowledge of the strike zone is real. I cannot comment on whether he is too patient. He does, in fact, take a number of pitches middle middle in the zone. These are rarely with guys on base or late in a close game. I wonder (we will not hear) what his coaches say about his concentration at times. He seems (as i said above) to give away at bats. I expect this potential issue to go away once he sees the prize and money of MLB; he will grow considerably in his attention to details IMHO.

You've watched much more than me, but in the handful of ABs I've watched of his there were certainly a couple where I had similar thoughts of him "giving away" the AB. It's much harder to teach a great eye than to teach swing decisions so my hope is they're able to get him to be a little more aggressive on pitches in the middle of the zone early in counts. Much like the approach Julien has. Go to the plate ready to swing from pitch 1, but only swing on the pitches you can put a good swing on.

[Fatbat]

19 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Top prospects are traded all the time. Like in the first Soto deal (James Wood and CJ Abrams). Or the Castillo to Seattle deal (Noelvi Marte is a higher ranked prospect than Rodriguez). Scherzer to Texas got the Mets Luisangel Acuna who's ranked higher than Rodriguez. The Mets got a similarly ranked Drew Gilbert for Verlander. Michael Busch is older, but better ranked in some circles and was just traded to the Cubs like a week ago. Jarred Kelenic was the Mets #3 prospect and top 50ish global prospect when he was traded to Seattle. Rodriguez type prospects are traded all the time.

And many of them who aren't traded don't even come close to touching their potential. Jo Adell was a better prospect than Rodriguez and his career is hanging by a thread. Taylor Trammell, Victor Robles, Keston Hiura, Joey Bart, Carter Kieboom, Brendan McKay. The list goes on and on. That's the risk reward challenge the FO faces.

I apologize as I didn’t include what would be traded for. As a minor leaguer. Erod would not get the value/return of a top 50 SP in MLB. Not even a 1 yr rental. 

When (IF) Erod becomes an annual MVP candidate in MLB, his value would be more than a SP for most of his prime. 
 

A trade could/would occur somewhere between now and then but so many things would have to line up for it to happen that it makes it unlikely to happen to most top prospects. Does it happen? Sure. 
 

Now, when you look at the full scope of where we are at as an organization and what this FO is aiming for, I am confident that they will NOT trade top prospects before their value is sky high. Arraez was traded only after he won a batting title. Huge value compared to when he was sprinkling balls everywhere in A or AA ball. He was also immediately replaceable by Julien who had the minor league #s to take the chance. 

[Fatbat]

5 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

(I am replied to your comment because you mentioned Soto and your post was short, could have replied to any of them)

We need to stop comparing him to Soto or Soto type of player. Soto K'd 14% in the minors and hit .362 in the minors at age 17,18,19. He hit .292 and .282 in the majors and K'd at a 20% rate at the same age ERod has been the last two years.

Soto is an All-World generational talent (close to the same age as Julien, Martin, and younger than Wallner) who already has MVP votes in 4 years, comparing ERod to Soto or Soto type player sets him up for failure.

ERod has an absolute high ceiling and potential but should be compared to other type of  all star type players (maybe Yelich, Schwarber, Bellinger).  With that said I wouldn't trade him unless it was something that was too good to be true.

I am with ya, I used Soto only because of previous mentions. I don’t even like to compare milb guys to any MLB player because every guy is unique.  Erod could catch the hit for contact expertise as he develops of he could just be a strike out/HR guy.  My only point was that its hard to trade away the best prospects until their highest value has already been achieved and much of it has been utilized. The time and money invested has to match the return that you get out of them. 

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

I apologize as I didn’t include what would be traded for. As a minor leaguer. Erod would not get the value/return of a top 50 SP in MLB. Not even a 1 yr rental. 

When (IF) Erod becomes an annual MVP candidate in MLB, his value would be more than a SP for most of his prime. 
 

A trade could/would occur somewhere between now and then but so many things would have to line up for it to happen that it makes in unlikely to happen to most top prospects. Does it happen? Sure. 
 

Now, when you look at the full scope of where we are at as an organization and what this FO is aiming for, I am confident that they will NOT trade top prospects before their value is sky high. Arraez was traded only after he won a batting title. Huge value compared to when he was sprinkling balls everywhere in A or AA ball. He was also immediately replaceable by Julien who had the minor league #s to take the chance. 

Everyone I mentioned was still a minor leaguer when they were traded and many of them brought back top 50 SPs. Acuna brought back more than 1 year of Scherzer. Gilbert brought back more than 1 year of Verlander. 

Yes, the risk is that Rodriguez becomes a perennial MVP candidate, but what are the chances of that actually happening with a 68% contact rate in A+ ball? The Soto comp is useful in terms of his eye at the plate, but the closer comp is probably Gallo. He had a really nice stretch with multiple all star appearances, but he was no MVP candidate. But he was a high BB, high K, low contact% hitter like Rodriguez. I'd argue there's a much better chance Rodriguez is Gallo than Soto. Does that change the equation on trading him if he has real value now? The chances that any individual player is traded is always small. But top prospects get traded every single year. Multiple of them. And even more fail.

"Sky high" is a relative term. What if Rodriguez goes to AA and his contact struggles are exposed in 2024 and he drops off every top 100 list? Like Adell or Trammell. I'm not advocating for trading Rodriguez, I'm just saying that there's a very real chance this is his peak value and trading him shouldn't just be brushed aside as if he's guaranteed to only get more valuable.

[Fatbat]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Everyone I mentioned was still a minor leaguer when they were traded and many of them brought back top 50 SPs. Acuna brought back more than 1 year of Scherzer. Gilbert brought back more than 1 year of Verlander. 

Yes, the risk is that Rodriguez becomes a perennial MVP candidate, but what are the chances of that actually happening with a 68% contact rate in A+ ball? The Soto comp is useful in terms of his eye at the plate, but the closer comp is probably Gallo. He had a really nice stretch with multiple all star appearances, but he was no MVP candidate. But he was a high BB, high K, low contact% hitter like Rodriguez. I'd argue there's a much better chance Rodriguez is Gallo than Soto. Does that change the equation on trading him if he has real value now? The chances that any individual player is traded is always small. But top prospects get traded every single year. Multiple of them. And even more fail.

"Sky high" is a relative term. What if Rodriguez goes to AA and his contact struggles are exposed in 2024 and he drops off every top 100 list? Like Adell or Trammell. I'm not advocating for trading Rodriguez, I'm just saying that there's a very real chance this is his peak value and trading him shouldn't just be brushed aside as if he's guaranteed to only get more valuable.

Nothing is guaranteed. And the minor leaguers you mentioned were top pedigree with value at the time of their trades that way overshadow Erods current value. It also is an off season where top SP has a massive current market value.  Market value changes all the time so on the scope of Erods career. Right now its not real high. Not top 50 SP high. Will it ever be? I don’t obviously know but I bet it will be. I am also wrong most of the time. 

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Nothing is guaranteed. And the minor leaguers you mentioned were top pedigree with value at the time of their trades that way overshadow Erods current value. It also is an off season where top SP has a massive current market value.  Market value changes all the time so on the scope of Erods career. Right now its not real high. Not top 50 SP high. Will it ever be? I don’t obviously know but I bet it will be. I am also wrong most of the time. 

If his current value isn't that high why are we talking about him as a potential MVP candidate? He's a top-50 global prospect. I may just be misunderstanding what you and others are trying to say about his value. If those other prospects "way overshadow" his value then why are we concerned about a soon to be 21 year old who's value is overshadowed by 23 year old Drew Gilbert? If his potential right now should be seen as possible future MVP candidate (that's what I'm understanding people are arguing) his value is likely at it's peak. 

Every team likely views him a least a little bit differently from all the others. But I don't understand the argument of a top-50 global prospect's value being "not real high." If it's not real high as he enters his age 21 season as a top-50 prospect it's not likely to get higher, it's likely to get lower. Isn't it more likely that his contact issues are exposed rather than improved as he faces better pitchers, thus pushing his value down and not up?

I admit I'm lower on Rodriguez than many of you. I think he has real concerns with making contact and I think it's going to lower his ceiling considerably. If I could center a package around him to get a controllable starter I would. But I don't get both arguing he's a possible perennial MVP candidate and that he has very limited value right now as a top-50 global prospect. Those seem to be contradictory ideas to me.

[Fatbat]

@chpettit19 yes, value can be confusing. Market forces change and sometimes rapidly. Erod has questions and high potential. As of today, the Twins would probably trade him straight up for Corbin Burnes but is that likely in todays market? Lots of hypotheticals, lots of different valuations depending on situations and perspectives.  Its fun to talk about because we love baseball and the Twins. In the end, we have no idea what his true value is until many more decisions are made that you and I have no control over. Lol

[JD-TWINS]

As a couple guys mentioned, top prospects get traded all the time. Spencer Steer has a better chance of being an MVP than Rodriguez since he already has had success in the Show & shows no reason why he wouldn’t continue to be better. Red’s MVP of ‘23. He was a traded prospect - nobody jumping off a bridge in Minneapolis over this. 

Rodriguez - Polanco & another guy or two, other than Lee - Jenkins, is worth a solid starter for the next 2-4 years! No other 26 man guys but realistic add-ons to the Polanco - Rodriguez pairing would be worthwhile.

If Rodriguez plays CF & isn’t ready until ‘25……..most think Jenkins plays CF & should be ready in ‘26……..make a deal for a pitcher now.

Lee at 3B everyday & Lewis in LF everyday & Jenkins in CF everyday & Wallner in RF everyday …….CC & Julien & Jeffers through the middle, sounds OK for future….,,,not torn up with regret. Pitcher now & piece together CF for a couple seasons.

[TopGunn#22]

Great topic Nick !  I've read everyone's comments and I align most closely to NashvilleTwin and Dman.  To me, this isn't a very difficult question.  The "potential" for Em-Rod is too great to trade him going into the 2024 major league/minor league season.  

We would NOT get a clear #2 SP back with just Em-Rod alone.  We'd have to give up more.  With Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack and Varland,  rotation reinforcements are needed.  But not at the cost of the potential upside Em-Rod brings.  I'd let the 2024 minor league season play out.  Em-Rod's value could skyrocket or it could crater.  I'm willing to take that risk.  I certainly prefer having a 20-year slugger who already shows patience at the plate over a free-swinger like Eddie Rosario.  And it's quite possible that as Em-Rod moves up in the minors he will see pitchers with better command and "naturally" become a little more aggressive early in the count.

The idea that the Twins have a young core like Lewis, Jeffers, Julien and Wallner already up, with Lee, Em-Rod and Jenkins on the fast track is not only exciting, it's extremely advantageous for the near future.  Who else could emerge from this group?  I like having a Platinum Gold Glove winning SS like Noah Miller in the system as well.  

It would be fantastic if the Twins just said, "the heck with it, we're signing Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell on Thursday!!"  All it would cost is money, which can be made up down the line with a TV deal of some kind and increased attendance and concessions/souvenirs.  It would bolster that rotation with a veteran arm for the 2024 season and beyond while giving extra time for Festa, SWR and Raya (not to mention Varland) to develop. Sadly, at the price of Monty or Snell it's Just. Not. Going. To. Happen.  Not with the Twins.

This is why trading a Polanco or Kepler for an Alex Manoah lottery ticket makes so much sense for 2024 and beyond.  And/or signing a Trevor Bauer or Michael Wacha to a one or two year deal.  Horde those prospects.  Let them develop, and see what your lineup looks like in 2026.  it could be REALLY SPECIAL.  

[Fatbat]

@TopGunn#22 I agree with your post. I would shoot higher than Manoah tho.  It doesn’t seem realistic in today’s market unfortunately. 

[August J Gloop]

Because it is harder to find, people naturally overvalue pitching. The only thing they value even more than pitching is superstardom. That's an even more elusive thing, cuz it's not really knowable until you're neck deep in it. The problem is, it gets projected onto prospects all the time. EMRD seems like a slam dunk for that superstardom to some and we think of Big Papi when we think of trading him away. Others are like pitching is the only answer ever, trade him for Logan Gilbert.

[Doctor Gast]

4 hours ago, Fatbat said:

No FO trades 7+ years Juan Soto or anyone that has a legitimate chance at being a similar type player.  You can always package an Eddie Rosario with others to get a decent trade return but no one trades away franchise guys that are just starting to build their value. 

You don't trade a Juan Soto comp. especially when his trade value is low for what he's worth. BTW I wouldn't trade away Lee either. E Rod has Eddie's spirit but with discipline, that's a pretty awesome gift, plus he's not bad in the OF. Some think he'll bulk up and move off CF IMO he doesn't need to bulk up any more than what he is & he'll stay in CF.

[Fatbat]

5 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

You don't trade a Juan Soto comp. especially when his trade value is low for what he's worth. BTW I wouldn't trade away Lee either. E Rod has Eddie's spirit but with discipline, that's a pretty awesome gift, plus he's not bad in the OF. 

I agree, I think the twins are blessed with some very special young players that will be great MLB’rs, not just solid role players.  The only way we can compete with the big money teams is to hoard everyone of the top prospects. Not all of them will pan out but we gonna try. 

[nicksaviking]

56 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

It would be fantastic if the Twins just said, "the heck with it, we're signing Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell on Thursday!!"  All it would cost is money, which can be made up down the line with a TV deal of some kind and increased attendance and concessions/souvenirs.  It would bolster that rotation with a veteran arm for the 2024 season and beyond while giving extra time for Festa, SWR and Raya (not to mention Varland) to develop. Sadly, at the price of Monty or Snell it's Just. Not. Going. To. Happen.  Not with the Twins.

This is why trading a Polanco or Kepler for an Alex Manoah lottery ticket makes so much sense for 2024 and beyond.  And/or signing a Trevor Bauer or Michael Wacha to a one or two year deal.  Horde those prospects.  Let them develop, and see what your lineup looks like in 2026.  it could be REALLY SPECIAL.  

With apologies to Blake Snell who I have zero faith in, these guys aren't as good as the hypothetical arms the rest of us have been talking about getting from Miami and Seattle. Getting more guys who will fill out the middle to back of the rotation won't help this team win the World Series, and that's all I want. This team has enough top end offensive prospects and young players, they can afford to part with some.