Emmanuel Rodriguez and the Range of Outcomes

[jorgenswest]

5 hours ago, Karbo said:

I wonder how much of an effect the automated strike zone in the minors has? And then they get to the majors and have a very inconsistent zone? That would take a while to adapt too I would think.

The automated strike zone was in AAA. It wasn’t consistent either varying between venues. I don’t think Rodriguez has encountered the automated strike zone.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

As a couple guys mentioned, top prospects get traded all the time. Spencer Steer has a better chance of being an MVP than Rodriguez since he already has had success in the Show & shows no reason why he wouldn’t continue to be better. Red’s MVP of ‘23. He was a traded prospect - nobody jumping off a bridge in Minneapolis over this. 

Rodriguez - Polanco & another guy or two, other than Lee - Jenkins, is worth a solid starter for the next 2-4 years! No other 26 man guys but realistic add-ons to the Polanco - Rodriguez pairing would be worthwhile.

If Rodriguez plays CF & isn’t ready until ‘25……..most think Jenkins plays CF & should be ready in ‘26……..make a deal for a pitcher now.

Lee at 3B everyday & Lewis in LF everyday & Jenkins in CF everyday & Wallner in RF everyday …….CC & Julien & Jeffers through the middle, sounds OK for future….,,,not torn up with regret. Pitcher now & piece together CF for a couple seasons.

When was the last time Falvey traded a top ten organizational prospect before that player had reached the majors? Perhaps this is important .... or not, but at least we should be aware of how Falvey has worked in the past.

Spencer Steer topped out as a #11 prospect for the Twins. He was behind a ton of players. Good for him that he has received an opportunity with the Reds. Steer would not have received a promotion with the Twins. Luck and circumstances play into careers. The guy the Twins should not have given up to Cincinnati was Encarnacion-Strand. 

The Twins need Emmanuel Rodriguez to develop into a star. He might not but Falvey is unlikely to risk the young slugger reaching his potential with another team and there should not be anyone blocking his path as soon as next year.

Who knows what will happen between now and May. I'm open to improvements, but do not see using EmRod as a trade chip as a good idea. Besides, the point is likely moot because teams like Seattle are trying to win now and not looking for prospects.

[sweetmusicviola16]

I would agree with chepetit that ERod's value may never be higher than it is now. But with that said he still doesn't have enough value to get a TOR SP by himself. Not even close. Using our own Louis Varland as an example, I don't think he could even get Varland w/o additional resource added in. But because he has the potential to be a star but who's not at top trade value I want to keep him. Rightnow with things as they are in baseball I don't want to see any of Jenkins, Lee, Rodriguez or Raya traded. As an organization we can't afford to lose value on any of these. 

[tony&rodney]

17 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

I would agree with chepetit that ERod's value may never be higher than it is now. But with that said he still doesn't have enough value to get a TOR SP by himself. Not even close. Using our own Louis Varland as an example, I don't think he could even get Varland w/o additional resource added in. But because he has the potential to be a star but who's not at top trade value I want to keep him. Rightnow with things as they are in baseball I don't want to see any of Jenkins, Lee, Rodriguez or Raya traded. As an organization we can't afford to lose value on any of these. 

I agree that the Twins need to hold their best prospects (top five - Jenkins, Lee, EmRod, Festa, Raya).

Of course, every prospect "may" have reached their ceiling but EmRod could explode this season to Dylan Crews status/value. I don't see the value as very important when the organization plans to develop and put a player into their own lineup. The value for trading is all over the place. Where does Falvey see EmRod in two years? I think he sees him on the grass at Target Field.

[Heiny]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

With apologies to Blake Snell who I have zero faith in, these guys aren't as good as the hypothetical arms the rest of us have been talking about getting from Miami and Seattle. Getting more guys who will fill out the middle to back of the rotation won't help this team win the World Series, and that's all I want. This team has enough top end offensive prospects and young players, they can afford to part with some.

Just not Jenkins, Lee, or Lewis. 

[nicksaviking]

34 minutes ago, Heiny said:

Just not Jenkins, Lee, or Lewis. 

I'll trade Lee for top end pitching in a heartbeat. 

I'd actually trade him before I trade E-Rod or Marco Raya.

[Karbo]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

The automated strike zone was in AAA. It wasn’t consistent either varying between venues. I don’t think Rodriguez has encountered the automated strike zone.

I was told it was used from A to AAA. Thanks for the info!

[ashbury]

On 1/16/2024 at 6:26 AM, Jamie Cameron said:

Enjoyed this piece a ton. Came to mention that I think the tension in E-Rod's skill set is best summed up a question: Assuming he can become more aggressive earlier in counts, can he improve his contact%?

Tension is the right word.  I look at it slightly differently., though we end up in pretty much the same place.

What if his level of aggressiveness is already about right?  In AA this year, he'll be facing more capable pitchers, as with every promotion. 

At single-A, a lot of pitchers will put themselves in a 3-0 hole if you let them.  In the majors, most pitchers will put you in an 0-2 hole if you let them.  A batter with the right aggressiveness will spit on those single-A pitches but could try to do something with the major league ones, without actually changing a thing in his approach.  The detailed stats would look like he was more aggressive, when he really wasn't. 

The key for him may be improving his contact rate, as you say, which currently suggests big holes in his swing.  Waiting for your pitch, and then batting only .240, is a worrisome sign.

Moreso than most prospects, he has a huge range of possible career outcomes.  For all the hype, he could bust.

I'm an optimist, so I'm about as averse to trading him as Brooks Lee, even though his floor is much lower.  It's a bit like stock-picking, where you can absorb 100% losses on some investments and still come out ahead with a few big winners.  But unlike money, where every dollar is on a par with another and you can bunch them together over time, hitting big on one baseball investment can help propel you to a pennant since there are only 26 spots on anybody's roster - you can't win the pennant with 50 1-WAR players.  If you have a player in your system with a 5-WAA season in him, you'd better not trade him for 2 years of Sonny Gray who gives you 5 WAA combined.  But now I'm changing subjects.  😀

[Fatbat]

At 20 yo Erod is heading to AA. He is still considered a baby but comes up huge in clutch situations. How can someone say he has huge holes in his game? His development skills wont peak for about 10 more years if he is the real deal and carry him until Age 35/6? How many top 3 team prospects have peak value at age 20? None that are midwest league MVP types is my guess. 

[chpettit19]

34 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

At 20 yo Erod is heading to AA. He is still considered a baby but comes up huge in clutch situations. How can someone say he has huge holes in his game? His development skills wont peak for about 10 more years if he is the real deal and carry him until Age 35/6? How many top 3 team prospects have peak value at age 20? None that are midwest league MVP types is my guess. 

FYI he turns 21 on Feb 28, so he'll be heading to AA at 21. And an interesting little thing for the Twins system is that Kala'i Rosario is the 20 year old that actually won the midwest league MVP last year. Although he's 6 months older than Emmanuel so he's already 21. Will be interesting to watch his progression the next couple of years as well.

[Dlee]

put him in a room watching film on Mauer at bats where he takes the first pitch, then battles the close ones and eventually rings a double the other way.

[Fatbat]

@chpettit19 yes and Rosario is the twins #19 prospect and will likely beat Erod to MLB and ahead of them is Yoyner Fajardo who has already torn up AA at 24 yo.  My whole point is value is relative and it’s impossible to project yet it seems like everyone thinks they can.  After just 1 yr do you think the Marlins would rather have Arraez or Julien? A year ago Juliens value was no where near Arraez. 

[DocBauer]

First, the truth is we just don't know what the FO is trying to do. In the recent past they added Maeda for Graterol which turned out pretty fair for both teams, in their time frame. Never saw Odorizzi for Palacios. Never saw Gray for Petty. And never saw Arraez for Lopez, plus a couple interesting A ball players. So I don't KNOW, nor does anyone really, that the Twins can't pull another rabbit out of the hat for 2024 without having to touch our top 5 prospects.

Just in general, and not getting specific, I want the Twins to move Polanco + for an arm, whether it be Manoah, or larger. I'd like them to add a decent, solid RH bat...if not a really good one...instead of just counting on Miranda, Martin, or Helman to fill a role. And I'd still really like to add that one more, proven, solid arm to the pen instead of just banking on Canterino, Staumont, etc.

But the more I look at what we have right now, and what's coming up in 2024 and 2025, the more I'm honestly more and more on board with a few others here where I want to add to the edges, trust in what we have, keep our depth and the prospects, and go out and win the ALC...which I think we should be able to do right now...and see what happens. MAYBE revist and add a player/arm or two at the deadline if needed for the final push and playoffs.

I'm NOT saying I DON'T want the team to get better. And I understand there is as much risk in NOT trading someone like E-Rod right now. Hey, he might look completely overrated at AA as a 21yo and we MAYBE lost a chance to sell high. (Though struggling some at AA as a 21yo isn't exactly a death sentence). But I think I'd rather take the gamble that he's going to mature/adapt and find that aggressive early account approach against better pitchers, while maintaining discipline, similar to Julien, and not tank by staying too passive. My goodness, we're talking about a VERY talented kid who only turns 21yo just as ST starts!

I don't want to move Julien or Lee. They are just really good, and have the potential to be really good for a long time. I mean, Lee doesn't have the ceiling of E-Rod, but does anyone really not believe he's not going to be really good, even without achieving greatness? And with all due love and respect to Ryan and Ober, and Varland...who are both really good and haven't yet reached their apex, IMO...Festa and Rya are probably the best SP prospects produced since probably Berrios. 

Might the Twins be better, not status quo even though they're good and deep right now? Maybe they're better off keeping most of what they have, maybe moving Polanco +...who I just love and hate to see go...in one semi major move to improve one spot, or a couple possibly in the right deal, and play the waiting game for a FA add or two for the peripherals of the team? Let's say Polanco and a prospect or two in the teens/twenties for Manoah, just as an example. The Jay's get a wonderful player on the cheap plus a prospect or two, and the Twins take the gamble that Manoah can find himself again. Then the FO snags a milb contract arm like, let's just say old friend Odorizzi. possibly with a June out clause, for depth and a reclamation project. Maybe they can then turn around and grab someone like Hoskins or Duval on a relatively inexpensive deal. One is a 1B/DH deal to provide depth for Kirilloff...or allow AK to still play a little OF here and there...and one who could be a quality 4th OF and powerful RH bat  who we don't have to count on as a daily player, considering age and injury history.

I'm rambling a bit. And the FO might pull yet another rabbit out of the hat. I think we all know that, hope for it, and expect SOMETHING to happen.

But if the option is moving Polanco, maybe Kepler, and teens/twenties prospects vs Julien and any of the top 5 prospects, considering where we are right now and might be later in 2024 and beyond, I'm more inclined to work the edges and depth.

Remember when Cruz fell in to our laps a few years ago? Maybe the FO adds an Odorizzi type SP via trade, or snags Stoman or Clevinger as a FA and then Hoskins or Duvall on a 1yr deal. ONLY examples.

Hey, I'm just spitballing. I have ZERO idea what the FO is going to do. But I AM wondering if adding to the edges and depth isn't the right move for 2024.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

@chpettit19 yes and Rosario is the twins #19 prospect and will likely beat Erod to MLB and ahead of them is Yoyner Fajardo who has already torn up AA at 24 yo.  My whole point is value is relative and it’s impossible to project yet it seems like everyone thinks they can.  After just 1 yr do you think the Marlins would rather have Arraez or Julien? A year ago Juliens value was no where near Arraez. 

Not sure why Rosario would beat Rodriguez to MLB when Rodriguez is the one on the 40-man and they're at the same level at the same age. Yoyner Fajardo is interesting, but has a lot to do to jump the already on the 40-man Rodriguez, too.

I agree value is relative and that's why I'm pushing back on such strong stances of "you just can't trade him!" when there's a very real possibility his value goes down moving forward. My point is that for every "Arraez vs Julien" example you can throw out I can throw 3 "Arraez vs Miranda" examples. Prospects go the other way far more than they go up in value. It's an impossible task, but the task of the FO is to maximize all their assets as well as possible. Sometimes that's trading a prospect who's value is going to go down. Sometimes it's keeping them. "He's got MVP upside so you can't trade him!" is an insanely aggressive stance that many on this thread are taking. It's an unrealistic take, in my opinion. 

Taking a super strong stance in either direction here is too much for me. The answer, in my opinion, is simply that they can't give him away for nothing, but if he can help bring back proven MLB talent he certainly should be available. The previous regime hoarded prospects the way many on this board are suggesting the Twins have to. It didn't work out well at all. Sometimes trading well thought of prospects is the right move and is how you maximize that asset. The key is being really good at self-evaluating. Have to be realistic about what your guy's chances of truly being impact big leaguers is. Fans don't tend to be super realistic about these things.

[tony&rodney]

36 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Taking a super strong stance in either direction here is too much for me. The answer, in my opinion, is simply that they can't give him away for nothing, but if he can help bring back proven MLB talent he certainly should be available.

Agreed about total absolute stances. Lewis & SWR for Kirby & Ford seems fair or EmRod for Gilbert. Fine. Seattle doesn't want prospects though so trading EmRod is a moot point. I can't think of a pitcher worth trading for that would involve Rodriguez. Can you?

[D.C Twins]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Not sure why Rosario would beat Rodriguez to MLB when Rodriguez is the one on the 40-man and they're at the same level at the same age. Yoyner Fajardo is interesting, but has a lot to do to jump the already on the 40-man Rodriguez, too.

I agree value is relative and that's why I'm pushing back on such strong stances of "you just can't trade him!" when there's a very real possibility his value goes down moving forward. My point is that for every "Arraez vs Julien" example you can throw out I can throw 3 "Arraez vs Miranda" examples. Prospects go the other way far more than they go up in value. It's an impossible task, but the task of the FO is to maximize all their assets as well as possible. Sometimes that's trading a prospect who's value is going to go down. Sometimes it's keeping them. "He's got MVP upside so you can't trade him!" is an insanely aggressive stance that many on this thread are taking. It's an unrealistic take, in my opinion. 

Taking a super strong stance in either direction here is too much for me. The answer, in my opinion, is simply that they can't give him away for nothing, but if he can help bring back proven MLB talent he certainly should be available. The previous regime hoarded prospects the way many on this board are suggesting the Twins have to. It didn't work out well at all. Sometimes trading well thought of prospects is the right move and is how you maximize that asset. The key is being really good at self-evaluating. Have to be realistic about what your guy's chances of truly being impact big leaguers is. Fans don't tend to be super realistic about these things.

I smell what the Chpettit is cooking on this thread... taking into account all responses, insight as good if not better than the original article! 

[Fatbat]

18 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Agreed about total absolute stances. Lewis & SWR for Kirby & Ford seems fair or EmRod for Gilbert. Fine. Seattle doesn't want prospects though so trading EmRod is a moot point. I can't think of a pitcher worth trading for that would involve Rodriguez. Can you?

I can see a top prospect or two in a package to get Corbin Burnes if he is willing to sign a 4-6 yr deal. The Pohlads should inject some financial creativity and defer some of his salary extension in order to stay in a realistic budget this year. I wonder why the Pohlads haven’t tried it. If the Dodgers can do it, why can’t the Twins?

[chpettit19]

10 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Agreed about total absolute stances. Lewis & SWR for Kirby & Ford seems fair or EmRod for Gilbert. Fine. Seattle doesn't want prospects though so trading EmRod is a moot point. I can't think of a pitcher worth trading for that would involve Rodriguez. Can you?

Miami's new brain trust may be into a guy who's a year away. Or maybe Seattle thinks he's ready now. I don't think having a top 100 global prospect be a possible trade chip is ever moot. Maybe Seattle wants Kepler and Rodriguez so they can use Kepler in 2024 and hand the job over to Rodriguez in 2025. Lots of possible trades you can cook up with him. Doesn't have to be a 1 for 1 deal so the options are wide open.

[Linus]

13 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Not sure why Rosario would beat Rodriguez to MLB when Rodriguez is the one on the 40-man and they're at the same level at the same age. Yoyner Fajardo is interesting, but has a lot to do to jump the already on the 40-man Rodriguez, too.

I agree value is relative and that's why I'm pushing back on such strong stances of "you just can't trade him!" when there's a very real possibility his value goes down moving forward. My point is that for every "Arraez vs Julien" example you can throw out I can throw 3 "Arraez vs Miranda" examples. Prospects go the other way far more than they go up in value. It's an impossible task, but the task of the FO is to maximize all their assets as well as possible. Sometimes that's trading a prospect who's value is going to go down. Sometimes it's keeping them. "He's got MVP upside so you can't trade him!" is an insanely aggressive stance that many on this thread are taking. It's an unrealistic take, in my opinion. 

Taking a super strong stance in either direction here is too much for me. The answer, in my opinion, is simply that they can't give him away for nothing, but if he can help bring back proven MLB talent he certainly should be available. The previous regime hoarded prospects the way many on this board are suggesting the Twins have to. It didn't work out well at all. Sometimes trading well thought of prospects is the right move and is how you maximize that asset. The key is being really good at self-evaluating. Have to be realistic about what your guy's chances of truly being impact big leaguers is. Fans don't tend to be super realistic about these things.

This. In life I’ve learned that it is better to be optimistic. When it comes to prospects not so much. The simple math of it is very few end up with a major league career even when you are considering good prospects like EmRod. I’m not sure anyone including really smart FO types can predict with accuracy what will happen with many prospects. But every great player was a prospect at some point so being good or lucky on those guesses is pretty much the crux of the issue.