Can the Twins Unlock RHP A.J. Alexy?

[Nick Nelson]

For a second consecutive offseason, the Minnesota Twins have acquired the enigmatic right-hander with hopes he can become another sneaky find in their bullpen at a time where they could use some inexpensive reinforcements.

Image courtesy of Jerome Miron–USA Today Sports

To say last week's signing of right-handed pitcher A.J. Alexy to a minor-league contract received little fanfare would be an understatement. As best I can tell, no beat writers so much as tweeted about the move, much less was there any formal team announcement. MLB Trade Rumors posted about the signing after noticing it listed in the transactions on Alexy's MLB player page.

Still, if the name sounds familiar, it's because he spent a couple of weeks on Minnesota's 40-man roster last offseason. For that and a few other reasons, I think this pickup deserves a bit more examination than the standard flier on a minor-league arm.

Last winter, Alexy experienced a bit of a whirlwind, illustrating the challenging nature of being a fringe MLB talent but also demonstrating the level of intrigue his arm offered in the eyes of MLB front offices. On December 9th, he was designated for assignment by the Texas Rangers, making room on the roster for free agent signing Andrew Heaney. On waivers, Alexy was quickly gobbled up, with the Washington Nationals claiming him four days later. There too Alexy became the odd man out, receiving a DFA when the Nats signed Dominic Smith on January 4th. 

At this point the Minnesota Twins made their move, acquiring Alexy on January 10th in exchange for a pitcher named Cristian Jimenez. While hardly a real prospect, the fact that Minnesota had to trade anyone for Alexy to extract him from waivers suggested there was some competition for him. 

Two weeks later, Alexy once again became the odd man out in a new org, waived by the Twins to make room for Michael A. Taylor when they traded for him on January 23rd. Back on waivers for a third time in six weeks, the righty was claimed this time by the Chicago White Sox, where he would end up spending most of his 2023 season.

What a season it was. Not in a good way. Alexy made 16 appearances for Chicago's Triple-A affiliate in Charlotte, posting a 12.00 ERA while issuing an astonishing 41 walks in 21 innings. Yes, that's about two per inning on average. In his first outing for the Knights, he walked seven of 11 batters faced. In his last, on June 28th, he walked five of seven. At that point he was released before catching on with the independent Southern Maryland Blue Crabs, where he posted an 11.81 ERA in six appearances and was quickly released again.

Unsurprisingly, Alexy was in much lower demand this offseason. But in spite of his complete derailment last year, the Twins aren't ready to get off the A.J. Alexy train. Last Tuesday the Twins signed the 25-year-old to a minor-league contract, bringing him into the fold without requiring a roster spot. It's unclear at this time if he'll get a spring training invite.

While it may well turn into nothing, Alexy strikes me as being worth a deeper look, for a couple of key reasons:

1. The front office has added him in consecutive offseasons, so clearly they see something in the right-hander. And as recently as last winter, they were far from alone.
2. The Twins lost a key piece of their bullpen to free agency in Emilio Pagán; given their financial constraints and needs elsewhere, it's likely that under-the-radar and non-roster acquisitions like these will be counted on to help replenish and bolster the unit.

So now that we've pretty clearly established what is NOT to like about Alexy, let's explore some of the qualities that potentially make him appealing to Minnesota's front office.

What Do the Twins See in A.J. Alexy?
Long ago, Alexy was viewed as a very promising pitching prospect. The Dodgers, who'd drafted him in the 11th round out of a Pennsylvania high school in 2016, traded him one year later alongside fellow minor-leaguers Willie Calhoun and Brendon Davis to acquire Yu Darvish from Texas at the deadline. At the time, Alexy was ranked as the No. 17 prospect in LA's system, described as having "an above-average fastball and curve," and "plenty of projection in his 6-foot-4, 195-pound frame." ("Projection" is a word that should make your Falvey Senses tingle.)

For a time, it was beginning to look like Alexy might be the only member of that prospect package to pan out for Texas. In 2021 he enjoyed a breakthrough season in the high minors, posting a 1.66 ERA with 10.5 K/9 in 65 innings as a reliever between Double-A and Triple-A. 

"A.J. has battled injuries, but he's in a really good spot now," said Rangers Director of Minor League Operations Paul Kruger that summer. "He's under control with his delivery and has a good idea what he wants to do. I like how he's repeating what he's doing. There's a good feel for the breaking ball and fastball."

Said Alexy at the time, "I am attacking the strike zone and I'll take my odds with the guys playing behind me."

His words might feel a bit ironic in light of what we know now – since the 2021 season, Alexy has handed out 134 free passes in 152 ⅓ innings for a 7.9 BB/9 rate – but his performance and those quotes illustrate an important truth: at that point, they had it figured out. And when he was able to throw the ball where he wanted, Alexy was a pretty successful pitcher.

The Rangers actually called him up late that season and gave him a chance to start, with Alexy delivering 11 innings of shutout, two-hit ball in his first two outings before things unraveled a bit in September. Here he is striking out Shohei Ohtani:

 

In 2022, Alexy took a big step back, struggling to find stability as he moved from rotation to bullpen, minors to majors, role to role. The down year led to his tumultuous offseason, and then was followed by faith-shattering campaign in the White Sox system. At the same time, he's still only 25 years old, a little younger than Jhoan Durán, and the track record of success is there. 

Paul Kruger's quote above – "He's under control with his delivery ... I like how he's repeating what he's doing" – seems to suggest that there was a major focus on mechanics and consistency. Can the Twins circle back and find something that works? Coming off a spectacular year on the mound as a team, Pete Maki and Co. have earned some confidence in this regard. And clearly they are confident that Alexy is an arm they can still do something with.

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[farmerguychris]

If this is the kind of signing they plan on doing to cut costs, I think I'd prefer to just try out some of our younger guys in the pen so they can develop in the big leagues.

12.0 ERA with 41 walks in 21 innings against AAA hitters in 2023.

Sure, maybe they can get something out of him - but its going to take quite a while I would expect to make progresses that will allow him to be an asset to the Twins roster.

Thank goodness was only a minor league contract.

[sun]

There's nothing like giving a player some hope as inspiration to boost his confidence & change his attitude. Give the kid a break & maybe he'll pay you back ten fold.  if nothing is ventured then nothing is gained. Good luck to him, I hope he can figure it out.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Someone unlocks him or he becomes another talented guy with an 6.30 ERA who doesn't make it.

[jmlease1]

I'm fine with a move like this. It costs very little, and if you do unlock him maybe you find your next Brock Stewart. The trick is to not do it too many times all at once, or pin too many hopes on someone emerging. You should take a flyer on a guy this that has real talent and might just be good health or a mechanical (or even personal) adjustment away from realizing their ability every year. You just shouldn't be doing it with 4 guys at once and banking on at least one of them being able to step in immediately, because then your opportunity costs get too high with the value of the roster spot.

This is a minor league deal with no guarantees and no spot on the 40-man. It's worth trying.

[rv78]

LOL!

[chpettit19]

There's almost no bad minor league deals during the offseason. Get him with your personnel that you believe in and see what they can do with him. If it doesn't work out you cut him before the year even starts if you want. But, man, those AAA stats are tough to look at.

[umterp23]

Not on 40-man, minor league deal = no harm / no foul if it doesn't work out.  Good luck to the guy and maybe we catch some lightning in a bottle moment.

[DocBauer]

Every single offseason for every single team we have flier signings like this to see if a guy is now healthy, has polished his mechanics, can learn a new pitch, has his screwed back on straight, etc, etc. And every single season someone balks at the idea because said signing(s) show their team isn't trying, or trying hard enough, etc.

AAA clubs need arms too. And once in a while you get that Wissler, Thielbar, Stewart, etc.

25yo, was once well regarded, seems healthy, why not take a shot and see if you get lucky? If it doesn't work out, he can be cut at any time.

[old nurse]

Last year 32 different reliever were used in St Paul. They have to keep trying to find someone viable 

[Fatbat]

He will be right there in st paul with dobnak. Saints will be awesome!!

 

[wipster]

Typical TWINS move! I wish Calvin would have sold the Team to someone who wanted to win first instead of making money 1st, 2nd, 3rd, then 4th win!!

 

[TwinsDr2021]

On 12/27/2023 at 12:21 PM, farmerguychris said:

If this is the kind of signing they plan on doing to cut costs, I think I'd prefer to just try out some of our younger guys in the pen so they can develop in the big leagues.

Not comparing how good they are (because he probably isn't as good as any below) but

He is younger than Varland, Canterino, Funderburk, Headrick, Winder, Alcala, Sands and 149 days older than Balazovic, So in reality if he was put on the 40 man, the only guy younger would be SWR (and Balazovic)

He is only a year and a half older than Festa.

Edited December 29, 2023 by TwinsDr2021
fixed

[Trov]

Sounds like they are hoping they can get him to find strike zone better and be a break out pen guy like Brock Stewart was last year.  If he does not find the zone in St. Paul they can let him go for little risk. 

[tony&rodney]

This was a really simple decision. The Twins need pitchers in their system. Alexy wants to continue his career as a professional baseball player. It works from both sides and there are zero risks taken as well.

[Major League Ready]

20 hours ago, old nurse said:

Last year 32 different reliever were used in St Paul. They have to keep trying to find someone viable 

Wow!  That is eye opening.  

[Mike Sixel]

22 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

There's almost no bad minor league deals during the offseason. Get him with your personnel that you believe in and see what they can do with him. If it doesn't work out you cut him before the year even starts if you want. But, man, those AAA stats are tough to look at.

Ya, I don't get why anyone is against a AAA signing of a guy not on the 40 man....

[Doctor Wu]

On 12/28/2023 at 8:21 AM, Fatbat said:

He will be right there in st paul with dobnak. Saints will be awesome!!

 

Speaking of Dobnak, will he get an invite to Spring Training?

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, Doctor Wu said:

Speaking of Dobnak, will he get an invite to Spring Training?

I hope they both do!