What is Rocco Baldelli's Seniority Worth in the 2024 AL Central?

[Ted Schwerzler]

When Rocco Baldelli arrived in the American League Central, it was the domain of the venerable Terry Francona. After just two years, Hall of Famer Tony La Russa joined the fray. Heading into 2024, though, Baldelli finds himself the grand old man of the division.

Image courtesy of Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

After one bridge season with inherited skipper Paul Molitor, Derek Falvey turned the manager position for the Minnesota Twins over to former Tampa Bay Rays first-round pick Rocco Baldelli. The move was one of connection, mainly in hopes that the new manager would be able to both disseminate information and generate buy-in from the current roster.

Fast-forward to where we are now: Baldelli has been the man at Minnesota's helm in the past five seasons. He won the American League Manager of the Year Award in 2019, in his first season, and has captured three division titles. Despite the turbulence during his tenure, he has been a steadying presence.

In 2024, Baldelli will enter the season as the most tenured among American League Central managers. With the divisional group seeing significant turnover, his experience will be given a chance to shine.

After 23 years as a manager (the last 11 of them as the head man of the Cleveland Guardians), Terry Francona has hung up his uniform and stepped aside. Rather than going with bench coach Sandy Alomar Jr., the Guardians tabbed former catcher Stephen Vogt as their next man in charge. He worked with the Seattle Mariners in 2023 after retiring the previous fall, but this is his first taste of such major responsibility. Unlike some of his competition, Vogt is on the Mike Matheny and Brad Ausmus path, stepping in without significant experience.

The hope would be that a former player can connect with the current contingent at a level that makes communication relatively straightforward. What Vogt lacks in experience, he could make up in mutual understanding. However, how he dissects a game from the dugout remains to be seen and could leave plenty to be desired. That's the same conundrum the Twins faced when they hired Baldelli, at the same age Vogt is now.

Communication is the first job of a manager in today’s game, and that is why Dusty Baker, Bruce Bochy, and Baldelli can all be successful. However, when it comes to carving out a tactical advantage, there should be an expectation that Vogt will have plenty to learn.

The White Sox are sticking with Pedro Grifol, who survived a catastrophic 2023. They underachieved and could be looking at a total overhaul at the major-league level in 2024. How he manages that remains to be seen, but it stands to reason that Chicago hopes he provides a path into the future. Ron Gardenhire dealt with a rebuild in Detroit before turning things over, but had significant big-league experience under his belt. Like fellow sophomore manager Matt Quatraro, of the also-rebuilding Royals, Grifol has overseen plenty of minor-league action, but this is the first time he is being asked to usher in a change of scenery at the highest level.

Detroit Tigers manager A.J. Hinch has been there and done that, having won a World Series and captured a pair of American League pennants with the Houston Astros. While he was tied to the trash can-banging scandal, there is no denying that his teams were incredibly talented and that Hinch could pull the most out of them. Hired as the Tigers' skipper, there was a belief in his ability, which will now have a chance to show itself.

Detroit was up against a poor roster for some time in recent seasons. Still, after moving on from former Twins manager Ron Gardenhire, the franchise clearly sought to establish a new expectation in the culture. Trending upward with youth production from the likes of Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene, and Tarik Skubal, the franchise is fully unlocked thanks to the retirement of the boat anchor that was Miguel Cabrera’s contract.

Baldelli might not have the longevity in his résumé that some of his competition does, but he has been tested in different scenarios at the highest level for some time now. He boasts the most talented roster in the Central, and he has been given ample time to build an understanding of how to utilize it. Tactically, Baldelli isn't looking to just develop a team as much as he is finding a way for his to execute. The Twins are expected to win now and consistently, and that has been the case almost since he first arrived. Those competing against his club don't have the same expectations, and that should be something the elder statesman of the group can use to his advantage.

How funds are spent remains to be seen. So far, Kenta Maeda and Andrew Chafin have been brought in alongside the big deal given to Javier Baez. Outside of Detroit, little has been done to shift any sort of belief among contenders. Alone among the Twins' rivals, though, the Tigers have a leader who has experienced the highest level of success, and positioning himself to overtake Baldelli at the top of the division is the goal.

For Minnesota, seeing how Baldelli handles himself against two managers who are still finding their way and are incredibly green is uncertain. Hinch might still need to get the team to go toe-to-toe, but he is a tactician who has won it all. Baldelli is established. Still, his execution will be scrutinized nightly regarding, and Hinch's presence is part of why the Tigers are a lurking threat.

Where do you think Baldelli ranks among the division's managers? Can he translate his experience into a tangible advantage for the Twins?

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[Fezig]

The three things with the Twins I don't like seeing:

1) Baldelli in the dugout

2) The hideous bar league softball M hats they brought out next year. 

3) The most strikeouts in major league history. 

#3 can be put on the manager and it wouldn't surprise me if he had a role in #2 as well.

[rv78]

What is Rocco Baldelli's Seniority Worth in the 2024 AL Central?

Zilch!

[Karbo]

Hinch and the Tigers are the biggest threats IMO. Baldelli has to learn to trust his gut as much as the spread sheet. Both are tools that should be used.

[Tball]

Don’t like the way he pulls out the 3’ diameter panic button in the playoffs and plays ineffective hunches that go against everything he’s done in the regular season. He played predominantly righty batters against righty pitchers, on a hunch, against Houston the last couple of games.

But during the regular season, he’d pull starters after one at bat if opposing teams switched from righty to southpaw in the third inning. He would burn through half of his bench and have zero options at the end of the game. I’m guessing that when batters are in the hole, they’re looking over their shoulders waiting for Baldelli to yank them.

 

[Otaknam]

Not much. The bigger point is how much is Rocco willing to utilize his manager’s judgment and intuition vs. what his history is, dogmatically following analytics when it comes to starting pitching. This year there was a slight deviation and he even let a starter complete nine innings once! That could be a fireable offense to this FO! I hope he shows a little more confidence in productive starters in 2024. 

Edited December 16, 2023 by Otaknam
Spelling

[David Maro]

Tigers are winning the Central!!

[DJL44]

43 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

Not much. The bigger point is how much is Rocco willing to utilize his manager’s judgment and intuition vs. what his history is, dogmatically following analytics when it comes to starting pitching. This year there was a slight deviation and he even let a starter complete nine innings once! That could be a fireable offense to this FO! I hope he shows a little more confidence in productive starters in 2024. 

I think quite often Baldelli is playing his hunches when you think he's following the script from a spreadsheet.

Baldelli uses a modern strategy - "using the spreadsheet"

Baldelli acts like Tom Kelly - "playing a hunch"

I don't think that's the case. I think he's wired to be a modern manager. He came from Tampa with a philosophy that the front office agrees with.

I do think he has learned over the years and changed his approach. 2023 Rocco Baldelli is probably a better manager than 2020 Rocco.

[specialiststeve]

59 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Hinch and the Tigers are the biggest threats IMO. Baldelli has to learn to trust his gut as much as the spread sheet. Both are tools that should be used.

Agree that Hinch is a better manager than Baldelli and Tito was also. 

I believe that his players really like him, and his strength is his relationship with his players... a big deal in the MLB. Long season and being together more than you are with your spouse. 

Unfortunately, his on the field managing is pretty poor. He mismanages his bullpen so bad it makes it hard to watch sometimes. Trying to get to cute and too far into the "metrics" vs playing traditional baseball has cost this team many a game. 

As stated hopefully he uses the metrics of as a tool more going forward and less as a robo-manager that he follows. 

[Whitey333]

Baldelli is not much of a manager.  Sure his players love him because he doesn't expect or demand much of them.  His in game management skills is also nearly non existent.  Analytics serve a purpose but Rocco relies on them way too much and many times ignores common sense.  His swing for the fences at all costs proved fatal in the playoffs.  Best manager in central now is Hinch with the Tigers.

[chpettit19]

9 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Baldelli is not much of a manager.  Sure his players love him because he doesn't expect or demand much of them.  His in game management skills is also nearly non existent.  Analytics serve a purpose but Rocco relies on them way too much and many times ignores common sense.  His swing for the fences at all costs proved fatal in the playoffs.  Best manager in central now is Hinch with the Tigers.

Some fun with numbers...

In the 2023 playoffs teams that out homered their opponents went 29-7. Teams that K'd less than their opponents went 17-19. So out homering lead to an 80.6 winning % while K'ing less lead to a 47.2 winning %. 

Over the last 3 years those numbers are 71-12 (.855) for out homering and 63-42 (.600) for K'ing less. 

Looks to me like failing at the "swing for the fences" strategy is what was fatal, not the strategy itself. 

The Twins certainly need to cut down on the K's, but that's more a talent level problem than a strategy problem. All the best teams in baseball follow the same strategy of looking for pitches to drive and trying to do as much damage as possible with that pitch. The difference is the talent levels and how often guys actually do damage on the pitch.

[jmlease1]

Seniority within the division doesn't mean much because a) we overrate the impact of managers in baseball, b) seniority has a lot more to do with the talent level of the roster (bad teams churn managers, good teams tend to have more stability), and c) who cares if a manager has the most time in-division, when divisions mean less than they have?

Hinch is a good manager, but his involvement (or refusal to get involved) in the sign-stealing scam from the Astros is a black mark on his record and is going to come up in tandem with his world series championship, deservedly. He's been fine in Detroit, but hardly a world-beater...and a lot of that has to do with the deficiencies in the roster. They were decent last season and might be a real competitor this season, but we'll see. Their lineup still doesn't scare me, and we'll see if their pitching can hold up for a full season.

Having MLB experience as a manager likely makes some difference. You've hopefully established a bit of an identity, you're less surprised by anything, and there's hopefully a comfort levels that's been built. But time in division says a lot more about the club than the manager.

Baldelli is fine. He's never going to satisfy people that don't like modern analytics and theories of baseball (the constant mocking of "spreadsheets" and other nonsense shows that) and he's going to be the focus of that hatred at all times. But generally makes reasonable decisions, his lineup construction is fine, he handles his clubhouse well be all accounts, and there's really no evidence that players do anything other than play hard for him. He's aggressive about using his bench (YMMV on how good that is, but I don't hate it), and other than needing to have an 8th reliever on-hand even if they don't get used handles the bullpen fairly well. (I appreciate his willingness to deploy his best relievers to shut down the other team's best hitter late in a game regardless of whether it's the 7th, 8th or 9th, rather than always play a classic "closer")

[hitterscount]

Baldelli is alright... not sure there is a better option. Players like him and having a clubhouse that is united is a must. 

But there are things I cannot stand. There are so many BP decisions that are just wrong. You literally know he just blew the game with some of the changes he just made.

Leading off Gallo and Kepler, I mean really?

The K's have been brought up ... I get the allure of the big HR, however I love the old Gardenhire way, advancing runners into scoring position, especially to get an early lead or tacking on a late run. Something this team was pretty much incapable of during for long stretches last year... the bases loaded approach w/less than 2 outs was hard to phantom... it's like you could pull anyone off of the street and they would have been more effective. 

I brought up that, IMO, he lost something like 18 games last year... probably was a little high, but the refusal to advance runners, the lack of production with RISP and some questionable BP decisions were tough to watch. They were lucky to be playing in the AL Central, but at the end of the day they beat Toronto and played Houston tough.  I think Baldelli is a decent manager that hopefully gets the players he needs to keep them competitive. 

[chpettit19]

32 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

Baldelli is alright... not sure there is a better option. Players like him and having a clubhouse that is united is a must. 

But there are things I cannot stand. There are so many BP decisions that are just wrong. You literally know he just blew the game with some of the changes he just made.

Leading off Gallo and Kepler, I mean really?

The K's have been brought up ... I get the allure of the big HR, however I love the old Gardenhire way, advancing runners into scoring position, especially to get an early lead or tacking on a late run. Something this team was pretty much incapable of during for long stretches last year... the bases loaded approach w/less than 2 outs was hard to phantom... it's like you could pull anyone off of the street and they would have been more effective. 

I brought up that, IMO, he lost something like 18 games last year... probably was a little high, but the refusal to advance runners, the lack of production with RISP and some questionable BP decisions were tough to watch. They were lucky to be playing in the AL Central, but at the end of the day they beat Toronto and played Houston tough.  I think Baldelli is a decent manager that hopefully gets the players he needs to keep them competitive. 

18 games?! How many did he win? Or do you think the 2023 Twins should've been a 105 win (best record in baseball) team?

[saviking]

A cup of coffee 

[CRF]

I didn't have my glasses on when I first read the title of this article...I thought it said "senility". 🤪

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, hitterscount said:

at the end of the day they beat Toronto and played Houston tough.  I think Baldelli is a decent manager that hopefully gets the players he needs to keep them competitive. 

The Twins definitely had superior strategy in the Toronto series. Baldelli clearly out-managed Schneider. Houston figured out how to get to Sonny Gray and that was enough to beat the Twins.

[KBJ1]

He did yank his SP too early in the past, but last year our SP were near the top of the league in innings pitched.

Part of that problem in the past was that our SP sucked and the Bullpen was worse. Last we had better options and he used them well.

If you want more HR, fill the gaping hole in LF. Sign Gurriel! Please! If we can't trade for SP, then at least get Devin Williams so we have a deep bullpen that can pitch 3-4 innings a game.

[Blyleven2011]

6 hours ago, Karbo said:

Hinch and the Tigers are the biggest threats IMO. Baldelli has to learn to trust his gut as much as the spread sheet. Both are tools that should be used.

5 years of managing  , really 4 years , he didn't have to manage hard in 2019 when the players had career years ...

So in 4 years of managing  , it is presumed he and the FO  should have learned something along the way , but I haven't noticed hardly any changes to his or the FO's direction of managing a team ...

 

It's still boom or bust , I would like to also see something from the gut during games when it warrants it  ...

It would be nice to get the players to make more contact , strikeout less , what strikeouts annoy me are the ones that the batter takes for strike 3 , if it is close you swing , teach them that or fine a batter  that leaves the bat on their shoulders ...

They aren't doing there job if they don't make contact and strikes out , I'd rather they try and bunt with no one on base and give the other team an easy out  ...

Put the team in a position to win on a consistent bases day in and day out , very few long winning streaks , tomorrow's another day approach would feel better the next day if each game ended in a win ...

[nicksaviking]

5 hours ago, David Maro said:

Tigers are winning the Central!!

Maybe if every team is under .500.

At which point, I wouldn't care who won the AL Central.

[nicksaviking]

4 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Seniority within the division doesn't mean much

Too bad, the Twins would have won the AL Central every season from when it was organized in 1994 to 2001 and again from 2004 to 2014.

[DocBauer]

Personally, I could care less if Baldelli is the senior manager in the central or not. I only care if he does a good job. And for the most part, he does. I don't know that he often makes a difference during a game, but when your team is united, likes one another, likes playing together, that's a job that takes place off the filed and he seems to do be great at that aspect.

Rocco does NOT pull his starters too early. When he's had Shoemaker type of rotation pieces, he pulls them as soon as he needs to. Isn't that what you do when you're pitcher is being light up like a Christmas Tree on fire? On the other hand, when he has good arms, he lets them go. He did that last year.

Baldelli has freely admitted than when he first took the job, he pretty much just had to fill out a lineup card and sit back. Now, he's done a little more bunting, had his guys take extra bases more, attempt more stolen bases, etc. The Twins were AWEFUL in early 2023 in regard to PH. But he stuck with it, and the Twins actually had a pretty good year with their PH when all was said and done. Like TK years ago, he gets everyone in the lineup a couple days a week, puts them in good spots, and recognizes that when guys don't ever play, you can't expect them to perform.

I don't believe there is a single statistic that can be found that doesn't support more power equals more wins. Strikeouts come with power. Strikeouts don't kill by themselves. Double plays are much worse I'd say. It's when the strikeouts are as HIGH as they were in 2023. But that's not Rocco. That's an organizational philosophy to build a power lineup, with a decent OB%, and ACCEPTABLE K level. The FO didn't set out to make a lineup that would set a K record. But it happened. There are better "hitters" and more guys with speed coming up to create a better balance. 

Where I DON'T like Baldelli is seeming to fall in to "traps" set by the opposing managers at times, like PH too early in a game due to an unexpected pitching switch. Maybe he needs to be reminded by Tingler, or someone, that when a player is pulled early, he doesn't get to go back in later. LOL

I don't think he's awful with his pen usage, but he's definitely not great. I haven't always liked some of the matchups he's used. I don't like saving a spot for arm that never throws unless you have a blow out game. 

I'm not asking for the Twins to make believe they are one of the 1980's Cardinal teams, but I do think there is a time for a an extra bunt here and there, starting a runner on a contact play, etc. Just a little more of the "old school" stuff that I think still plays here and there. Of course, you have to have guys who can pull it off too. And I think more of those are coming.

He's not some tremendous difference maker. But I think he's a solid manager.

[David Maro]

Twins record against the Tigers in 23 was 5-8 with the Tigers weak SP.They will win the Central if they stay healthy with the SP.

[ashbury]

On 12/16/2023 at 4:54 AM, Ted Schwerzler said:

After one bridge season with inherited skipper Paul Molitor, Derek Falvey turned the manager position for the Minnesota Twins over

Falvey and Levine came onboard after the 2016 Total System Failure™ season so Molitor was their manager for two seasons.  A lot of people expected it to last just one but 2017 was above .500 and so he lasted another.

That isn't relevant to anything in the article, but I have nothing to say about Rocco that hasn't been said 1000 times before.

[TwinsChupacabra]

Only Ray Miller was as bad of a manager as Rocco.  Rocco might make even more headscratching, inept decisions. 

Three things save Rocco each year:

1. The upper management not willing to make changes

2. Minnesota's overall OK-ness with mediocre baseball (low expectations)

3. Playing in the lowly Central Division 

Watching him in post game interviews gives me a rash.

 

[jmlease1]

On 12/16/2023 at 6:06 PM, David Maro said:

Twins record against the Tigers in 23 was 5-8 with the Tigers weak SP.They will win the Central if they stay healthy with the SP.

I'll take that bet. Unless the motor city kitties add a significant piece or two to their lineup they're still also-rans. They might pass Cleveland (who are cutting payroll too and lost an excellent manager), and will probably be a little bit better, but their top prospects haven't really developed and that lineup scares me not. Their record against the Twins last season doesn't mean much; that's just noise in the context of a 162 game season.

[Paul D]

Rocco is facing an audience that: 1) doesn't want him to use analytics, or 2) wants him to use it. It's unlikely both sides are content.

He has a well oiled clubhouse. He effectively platoons and pinch hits when situations arise. No player is relagated to the end of the bench, everyone gets in every 2 or 3 games. No player is overused and runs out of gas for the playoffs. He is consistent in his platooning and pinch hitting so players can anticipate being needed. He fulfills the FO philosophy. And he adjusts to his players, such as keeping starters in longer when he has a good staff and steals bases when he has guys that can run. Oh, and I love his use of the safety squeeze.

[wabene]

It's becoming clear that no matter what Baldelli does some narratives will not die. 

That was a fun season and we are poised for more success. Top to bottom this organization is leaps and bounds ahead of where they were in 2016. 

My 2¢

Baldelli has improved as he has gained experience.

Baldelli has shown he adapts well to the different strengths of his players (the safety squeezes were quite fun, eh?).