The Detroit Tigers Will Be the Twins' Biggest Threat to AL Central Supremacy

The Tigers have been a bit of a punchline for a few years, now. Last season’s .481 winning percentage their best since 2016. Despite that improvement, they never threatened the Twins in the American League Central, despite leapfrogging the Guardians to finish in second place, nine games behind Minnesota.

They did win the season series against the Twins, however, going 8-5 behind some opportunistic hitting, baffling starting pitching and a lock-down bullpen. There's an episode of Seinfeld where Jerry discovers that his heavyset nemesis, Newman, once dated the woman Jerry was currently seeing. Not only that, Newman was the one to break up with her.

"What could she see in Newman?" Jerry asks.

"Perhaps there is more to Newman than meets the eye," offers Elaine.

"There's less," is Jerry's retort. But Newman holds a steady job, is a talented poet, has many friends and dislikes Jerry Seinfeld. What's so bad about that?

Maybe that's Detroit Tigers baseball.

There are multiple reasons why they finished six games under .500 last year, but the biggest was a lackluster offense. The campaign saw them post 4.08 runs per game, 25th in the majors. Still, it was an improvement on 2022, when they finished a distant 30th, with 3.55 runs per game.

That number should continue to trend upward. Their best hitter, 23-year-old Riley Greene, had some injuries, but he still posted a 117 OPS+, showing a dynamic combination of power, speed, batting average and playable center-field defense. He strikes out a lot and has had his share of injuries, but he seems likely to torment Central division pitching for years to come.

They also have former No. 1 overall pick, 24-year-old Spencer Torkelson, slowly learning the league and becoming (if not the next Mark Teixeira, as some projected) a decent hitter with power and upside beyond what he has shown. He did hit 31 home runs while playing his home games at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park.

Then there's scrap-heap find Kerry Carpenter, who has a handsome 121 OPS+ his first two years in the majors. He doesn’t offer much defensively and can be streaky at the plate, but his overall body of work points to him being a good five-hole hitter for the foreseeable future.

Detroit's catcher is Jake Rogers, who represents the last chance for Detroit to get anything out of the Justin Verlander trade to Houston six years ago. Fortunately for Detroit, Rogers started to produce in 2023, with 21 home runs, a .224 ISO, decreasing (though still high) strikeout numbers and a solid defensive reputation, at age 28.

Colt Keith, the Tigers' fifth-round pick in 2020, has blossomed into a top-20 global prospect despite questionable defense. Some scouts grade his power as a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale, and he has hit over .300 in each of his minor-league years. He would figure to debut sometime in 2024. Meanwhile, Rangers rookie and playoff hero Josh Jung happens to have a little brother, Jace, in the Tigers system. The younger Jung projects as a plus offensive second baseman after being drafted 12th overall in 2022 out of Texas Tech, and he also figures to get a chance very soon.

Then there is Javy Baez, who has no idea what he's doing at the plate anymore, but is always a threat to figure it out at any moment. To be clear, this doesn't constitute an amazing lineup, but their ballpark will always suppress counting stats and (as a group) they certainly look more promising than the Royals, White Sox and Guardians.

The pitching is intriguing, as well. Jason Foley is lockdown at the back end of the bullpen, with a 98-MPH turbo sinker he can command, while Alex Lange is pretty unhittable (despite frequent bouts of wildness). Tyler Holton has been nails as a late-inning lefty who can get six or seven outs, which Twins hitters are certainly aware of (against the Twins he pitched 11 ⅔ innings, allowing one run and striking out 16).

On the starting side, lefty Tarik Skubal returned from injury to post a 2.00 FIP in 15 starts, and righty Reese Olson quietly had an excellent rookie year, holding opponents to a .215 batting average with strong peripherals over 103 innings. Former first overall pick (yes, they've got two of them, just like the Twins) Casey Mize is coming back from Tommy John surgery; Matt Manning has shown flashes; and they have top prospects Wilmer Flores and Jackson Jobe waiting in the wings.

In other words, Kenta Maeda may have been the perfect signing for Detroit. If healthy, he stabilizes the middle of their rotation, and if he misses time, it opens up opportunities for some of their young pitching.

They also have an excellent manager, though how much of A.J. Hinch's success was due to the Astros' cheating scandal is unknowable. But he clearly knows how to get his guys to play hard, and in particular, how to attack the Twins on both sides of the ball.

The other potential contender in the Central, the Cleveland Guardians, have arguably the best pitching rotation in the division but remain short on hitting as they pray for the immediate emergence of Kyle Manzardo and Chase DeLauter. And they no longer have the steady hand of Tito Francona piloting the ship. Winning the Draft Lottery was a nice bit of news for them, but it's likely to pay dividends in a few years, rather than immediately. The same can probably be said of Manzardo and DeLauter.

The White Sox are claiming they are in a "retool" mode, rather than undergoing a full rebuild. But whatever they call it, they don't have enough talent to compete at the top of the division, and are allegedly dangling their only good pitcher in Dylan Cease. The Royals have Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino Salvador Perez, and a shrug where their farm system should be.

Meanwhile, while the Baez contract is a regrettable one, the Tigers no longer have to rely on him to anchor the lineup. That responsibility now falls to Torkelson, Greene, and Carpenter, with Jung, Keith, Parker Meadows and Justyn Henry-Malloy all percolating at the top levels of their minor-league system. And with Miguel Cabrera no longer commanding 20 percent of their payroll, a Teoscar Hernandez-type signing would not be out of the question. They may even be a sleeper team for Cody Bellinger. Cleveland and the Twins, with more uncertain payroll situations, can only dream of that type of free-agent pickup.

When competitive, the Tigers have shown they can be aggressive with big-name free agents, and even in the darkest doldrums of their recent dark ages, they spent $217 million on Báez and Eduardo Rodríguez. They currently have only $75.1 million committed to their 2024 payroll, after spending $122 million last year, but have spent nearly $200 million as recently as 2017. Part of that spending spree was related to owner Mike Ilitch's failing health, but they also drew more than 3 million fans per year in those days.

I could see the Tigers getting to 85 wins next year, even without everything breaking right for them. The Twins should have no problem eclipsing that mark on paper, but injuries and regression could make this a race.

What do you think? Are the Tigers a team on the rise, or is Cleveland still the main rival for the Twins in the Central? Sound off in the comments.