Block buster trade

[Doctor Gast]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/braves-acquire-sean-murphy.html

 

Yes this article is history, but it's very relevant today. The Braves have been considered by many as the top organization in baseball. An organization that if we want to progress as a team, we need to study & emulate. Here we see the Braves who had an all-star hitting catcher in William Contreras concocted a complex trade to gain an elite defensive rookie who can hit. Many would question why trade away an all-star established hitting catcher? what more could you ask for? Maybe in Fantasy Baseball, defense doesn't count but in the real world it does, especially catcher and the Braves know this. The Braves had developed Contreras as much as they could defensively which made them to decide to upgrade defensively. Sean Murphy fits that bill for many years to come.

The Twins have a slightly below average defensive catcher that is evaluated as a potential good hitting catcher, Ryan Jeffers. Jeffers had a good rookie season hitting but the following 2 yrs were not so good. Granted he had a pretty good hitting season in "23 but in '24 he's due to regress, How much? is anyone's guess. Twins have placed all their hope in Jeffers and tried their best to sell that to the fanbase. But is Jeffers the type of catcher a World Series aspiring team would want to command their playing field for years to come? By this example that have been given the answer would be no.

I admire the way the Braves saw a real need that many would overlook & took a proactive approach. How I wish the Twins could see their deep void at catching that reaches deep down into their system & proactively make a serious decision to uprade their entire system. With Jeffers trade value being at all time high, now is a good time to trade him to help fill our present & future needs, #1 front-line SP,  #2 very good/ elite MLB ready defensive catcher that can hit, that Vazquez can mentor.

View full rumor

[SteveLV]

DG, whom are you targeting as an upgrade to Jeffers?  I am not opposed to exploring such a trade, but it is just a concept without another catcher to acquire.

Do you plan to keep Vasquez too, then?  He might be tough to trade with $20M due on his contract.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Between Jeffers and Vasquez yes Jeffers has the most value.  We have 3 more years of control with Jeffers.   Jeffers is a massive improvement in the lineup and has been pretty solid behind the plate.  I think you ride Jeffers the next 3 years and see what happens.   If he keeps putting up 3 WAR years,  first that is very good for us performance wise, secondly I have been hitting hard on this topic a bit but I think the Twins will be more than willing to keep giving players the QO and letting them sign elsewhere for the additional draft picks.  Yes they are just draft picks, but that is high level currency that can either improve your system, or flip for a short term upgrade for the team.   

Right now here are your possibilities 

2024- Kepler (40-50%)

2025 - Polanco (20-30%)  if we keep him would need a good healthy year on the field

2026 - Jeffers  (30-40%)   

2027 - Lopez, Duran, Ryan 

[Riverbrian]

I have said this multiple times and I will say it again. 

Catchers are extreme overpays. If you are lucky enough to have a catcher with inflated high trade value. Cash him in. 

The Twins should be doing everything they can to become a catcher factory in order to cash in on the extreme trade value that good catchers provide.  

To acquire Murphy the Braves parted with William Contreras, their top prospect and a couple more prospects in the top 15. It was a steep price. 

Check out the current trade value of William Contreras on BBTV. The Brewers could trade Contreras back to the Braves and land their 4 top prospects in return.  

If the Twins wanted to acquire Contreras... It would cost us the equivalent of Jeffers and Julien. Brooks Lee by himself wouldn't be enough to get him.  

Ryan Jeffers would almost be enough to bring in Corbin Burnes for a year and there is your replacement for Gray.  

Catcher are overpays... Keep producing them.

The only question is... Will Jeffers have higher value after 2024 or less value. If the answer is less. He is the player I'm moving to improve our team.

If the answer is more... OK... Let's go #27. Here's to a great 2024 in a Twins uniform. 

[nicksaviking]

I think you're underselling the fact that they traded for catcher who could hit. They didn't take a step back offensively with the trade.

And we're only a month removed from the season. I don't understand how anyone watched the Twins last year and didn't think that the biggest issues with that team were on the offensive side of the equation. This team can't afford to lose offense, they need to improve it.

[Riverbrian]

6 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I think you're underselling the fact that they traded for catcher who could hit. They didn't take a step back offensively with the trade.

And we're only a month removed from the season. I don't understand how anyone watched the Twins last year and didn't think that the biggest issues with that team were on the offensive side of the equation. This team can't afford to lose offense, they need to improve it.

I agree with you. I want a big bat addition more than I want a starter. 

Jeffers is one of the few players who can bring that bat in.  

[TopGunn#22]

Nicely put Riverbrian.  Great insights.  It's the classic sell high scenario.  In either case, I'm comfortable with Camargo as our backup catcher.  

What if...The Twins offered Jeffers 33.3 value to the Marlins for Alcantara 15.3 and Cabrera 8.5  26.1 value.  

The Marlins would still have a rotation of Jesus Luzardo, Eury Perez, Braxton Garrett, Trevor Rodgers, and Max Meyer.  And they'd have their catcher of the future.  If they balked at Alcantara how about Trevor Rogers 17.4 and Max Meyer 16.7?  I'd throw Thielbar in (2.9 value).  

One guy...Jeffers could plug the rotations holes left by Gray and Maeda.  To your point, that is the value of catching.  If you can catch AND hit a little, you're GOLDEN.  

Do you sell high?  This is what makes or breaks front offices.  It's such a crap shoot.  If Jeffers hits .285 with 24 HR's in 2024 somebody (either the Twins or Marlins) has a HECK of a player.  But how about a Twins rotation of Lopez, Alcantara, Cabrera, Ryan, Ober and Paddack?  OR...Lopez, Trevor Rogers, Ryan, Ober, Max Meyer and Paddack?  In these trade scenarios Varland has moved to fortify an impressive bullpen with a REALLY GOOD rotation.  At the cost of Jeffers with Vasquez and Camargo behind the plate I do this in a heartbeat.  

[Twinsrtheworst]

Ok so I have to ask DG.  Do you think Jeffers is a good catcher or not?  Here you have him being traded for a no 1 SP plus a younger version of Jeffers.  On other threads you believe Jeffers should have been gone and we should be trotting out Garver and Rortvedt as our catchers.  Sorry just confused on your takes.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The problem with this analysis is that the Brewers snuck into the Contreras deal, turned him into a good defensive catcher, and he became a 5.4 fWAR catcher in 2023, over a win more than Sean Murphy.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Here we see the Braves who had an all-star hitting catcher in William Contreras concocted a complex trade to gain an elite defensive rookie who can hit.

 

Sean Murphy wasn't a rookie and the Brewers won this trade hands down.

[BiggestRoccoFan]

26 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Nicely put Riverbrian.  Great insights.  It's the classic sell high scenario.  In either case, I'm comfortable with Camargo as our backup catcher.  

What if...The Twins offered Jeffers 33.3 value to the Marlins for Alcantara 15.3 and Cabrera 8.5  26.1 value.  

The Marlins would still have a rotation of Jesus Luzardo, Eury Perez, Braxton Garrett, Trevor Rodgers, and Max Meyer.  And they'd have their catcher of the future.  If they balked at Alcantara how about Trevor Rogers 17.4 and Max Meyer 16.7?  I'd throw Thielbar in (2.9 value).  

One guy...Jeffers could plug the rotations holes left by Gray and Maeda.  To your point, that is the value of catching.  If you can catch AND hit a little, you're GOLDEN.  

Do you sell high?  This is what makes or breaks front offices.  It's such a crap shoot.  If Jeffers hits .285 with 24 HR's in 2024 somebody (either the Twins or Marlins) has a HECK of a player.  But how about a Twins rotation of Lopez, Alcantara, Cabrera, Ryan, Ober and Paddack?  OR...Lopez, Trevor Rogers, Ryan, Ober, Max Meyer and Paddack?  In these trade scenarios Varland has moved to fortify an impressive bullpen with a REALLY GOOD rotation.  At the cost of Jeffers with Vasquez and Camargo behind the plate I do this in a heartbeat.  

You clearly waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay overvalue Jeffers as a catcher. Decent hitter but awful defensive catcher.

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, BiggestRoccoFan said:

Decent hitter but awful defensive catcher.

Jeffers is so awful he rates average or above in basically every defensive measure for catchers. If he's awful then most major league catchers are awful. It's like the reverse Lake Wobegon.

[cmoss84]

There is no way Jeffers would get us Burnes. Or Alcantara. These trade values from some of these sites are laughable. 

[DJL44]

17 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

There is no way Jeffers would get us Burnes.

Well yeah. The Brewers already have an all-star behind the plate. They're not looking for another catcher.

[jorgenswest]

It would be a sell high in Jeffers. I am guessing teams see the same batted ball data and are a little concerned that his actuals outperformed his expected numbers based on his contact by quite a bit. He was third on the Twins in slugging percentage but 10th in barrels and 9th in hard hit rate. Is it luck or skill driving the .359 BABIP? His BABIPs the previous two seasons were .269 and .259.

 

[Beast]

I mean, it’s worth a conversation, but let’s be honest.  Dealing 

[Riverbrian]

58 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Nicely put Riverbrian.  Great insights.  It's the classic sell high scenario.  In either case, I'm comfortable with Camargo as our backup catcher.  

What if...The Twins offered Jeffers 33.3 value to the Marlins for Alcantara 15.3 and Cabrera 8.5  26.1 value.  

The Marlins would still have a rotation of Jesus Luzardo, Eury Perez, Braxton Garrett, Trevor Rodgers, and Max Meyer.  And they'd have their catcher of the future.  If they balked at Alcantara how about Trevor Rogers 17.4 and Max Meyer 16.7?  I'd throw Thielbar in (2.9 value).  

One guy...Jeffers could plug the rotations holes left by Gray and Maeda.  To your point, that is the value of catching.  If you can catch AND hit a little, you're GOLDEN.  

Do you sell high?  This is what makes or breaks front offices.  It's such a crap shoot.  If Jeffers hits .285 with 24 HR's in 2024 somebody (either the Twins or Marlins) has a HECK of a player.  But how about a Twins rotation of Lopez, Alcantara, Cabrera, Ryan, Ober and Paddack?  OR...Lopez, Trevor Rogers, Ryan, Ober, Max Meyer and Paddack?  In these trade scenarios Varland has moved to fortify an impressive bullpen with a REALLY GOOD rotation.  At the cost of Jeffers with Vasquez and Camargo behind the plate I do this in a heartbeat.  

To be honest... I have no idea what Camargo will bring to the table in 2024 but I am 100% committed to catcher development.

Without knowing what Camargo is capable of producing (who does really and I include our front office when I say that)... I am OK moving one of our catchers to make room for Camargo in case he becomes valuable. Knowing full well that it could blow up in our face. Hitting on a young catcher is an extreme value boost that it's worth the chance. Missing on a young catcher is only half painful because they play 50% of the time at most.     

In order to commit to catcher development... you have to keep the pipeline unclogged. In other words you have to have a roster spot for the next generation so weather it's Jeffers in a trade for a quality starter or quality hitter or Vazquez in a salary dump to spend money on a quality starter or quality hitter... I am pro catcher trade of either.  

If Camargo produces (I don't know if he will). His trade value as a catcher with years of control and little financial obligation is a gold mine. I roll the dice. I rob Peter to pay Paul because Paul produces more. 

As for your trade idea with Marlins... I can't speak for the Marlins but I can't see them or anyone sending two starting pitchers over in a deal. I know they are well stocked but teams need to be well stocked to get through a season. You never know who will be left standing come playoff time but again I can't speak for the Marlins.

 

 

 

 

  

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, SteveLV said:

DG, whom are you targeting as an upgrade to Jeffers?  I am not opposed to exploring such a trade, but it is just a concept without another catcher to acquire.

Do you plan to keep Vasquez too, then?  He might be tough to trade with $20M due on his contract.

My 1st target that I suggested in the beginning of last off-season was Endy Rodriguez (PIT) debuted last season (he'll be expensive), Edgar Quero  (that I blogged about) that LAA traded cheap to CWS I doubt is available, Jefferson Quero (MIL) is reasonable according to BTV & IMO he could be ready in '24, MIL is deep in catching and have a great catching program, so they should be open for a trade especially if we throw in a catcher like Cossetti whom they can develop into a more well rounded catcher, Dalton Rushing (LAD) who have been blocked by a very deep Dodgers, LAD should be open to deal but Rushing's stock just took a big jump, he should debut this year w/ the Twins if he's traded. Samuel Basallo (BAL) BAL is loaded also in good catching so he could be available but he won't debut until '25 at the soonest. Kyle Teal (BOS)  Teal won't debut until '25. The best opportunity is Drew Romo (CO) he hurt his hand that brought his production down & so did his value but his production went back up so he's ok, he'll debut this year, Cole Carrigg (CO) will debut in '25 earliest. Both BOS & CO are bad in catching so we'd have to be creative, if they trade away either catchers they'll need a more experienced catcher in return in a 3-way trade.

Vazquez is crucial in mentoring any of these guys, so I'll definitely keep him. Does anyone else have any very good/ elite catching prospects that can hit options they'd like to share?

[Cap'n Piranha]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I think you're underselling the fact that they traded for catcher who could hit. They didn't take a step back offensively with the trade.

And we're only a month removed from the season. I don't understand how anyone watched the Twins last year and didn't think that the biggest issues with that team were on the offensive side of the equation. This team can't afford to lose offense, they need to improve it.

I watched the Twins last season.  I saw Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and (gulp) Emilio Pagan provide a combined 367.2 IP--that's a full 25% of the total IP by the Twins last year.  As you may have heard, none of those pitchers will be with the Twins in 2024.

I feel confident that some combination of Correa, Buxton, Jeffers, Kiriloff, Kepler, Polanco, Julien, Lewis, and Wallner (to say nothing of bounce-backs from Larnach/Miranda, or emergences from Lee/Martin/Severino) will produce a good offense.  Maybe not great, but good.

I feel very nervous about ALL of Ryan, Ober, Paddack, and Varland performing as quality MLB starters across 30 starts.  I feel very nervous about Festa and SWR being our only real options for SP depth.  And I feel very nervous about at least 5 of the 7 starters (including Lopez) being healthy at the same time for the whole year.

I feel very nervous about Duran, Stewart, Jax, Thielbar, Funderburk, and whatever 4 other unproven arms the Twins use to fill out the pen.  If Duran and Stewart are both hurt (or unavailable, which will happen regularly at points through the season), I feel very nervous about Jax being the closer, and Funderburk/Thielbar pitching the 8th.

I am way more confident about the offense than I am the pitching, and if I can get a solid #2 starter/bullpen alpha without giving up one of the rookies or Lee/ERod/Jenkins, I swing that deal in a heartbeat.

[nicksaviking]

4 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I watched the Twins last season.  I saw Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and (gulp) Emilio Pagan provide a combined 367.2 IP--that's a full 25% of the total IP by the Twins last year.  As you may have heard, none of those pitchers will be with the Twins in 2024.

I feel confident that some combination of Correa, Buxton, Jeffers, Kiriloff, Kepler, Polanco, Julien, Lewis, and Wallner (to say nothing of bounce-backs from Larnach/Miranda, or emergences from Lee/Martin/Severino) will produce a good offense.  Maybe not great, but good.

I feel very nervous about ALL of Ryan, Ober, Paddack, and Varland performing as quality MLB starters across 30 starts.  I feel very nervous about Festa and SWR being our only real options for SP depth.  And I feel very nervous about at least 5 of the 7 starters (including Lopez) being healthy at the same time for the whole year.

I feel very nervous about Duran, Stewart, Jax, Thielbar, Funderburk, and whatever 4 other unproven arms the Twins use to fill out the pen.  If Duran and Stewart are both hurt (or unavailable, which will happen regularly at points through the season), I feel very nervous about Jax being the closer, and Funderburk/Thielbar pitching the 8th.

I am way more confident about the offense than I am the pitching, and if I can get a solid #2 starter/bullpen alpha without giving up one of the rookies or Lee/ERod/Jenkins, I swing that deal in a heartbeat.

Yes, getting another top of the rotation arm needs to be the priority. The Twins won because of the pitching, and getting that back near to what it was last year should be the focus.

I'm only taking issue with continued pushing of the idea that the Twins need to keep sacrificing offense for defense, when the defense was fine last year and the offense was extremely inconsistent and unreliable for long stretches.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Sean Murphy wasn't a rookie and the Brewers won this trade hands down.

Sorry I thought Murphy still qualified as a rookie in '22.

The trade was a win/win/win everybody got what they wanted but there was no doubt that MIL won the deal by what they gave up & turning Contreras into an all around elite catcher

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Well yeah. The Brewers already have an all-star behind the plate. They're not looking for another catcher.

They also have Jeferson Quero in the upper minors, who could legitimately turn into an All-Star himself.

The Brewers are all full up on catchers.

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, se7799 said:

Ok so I have to ask DG.  Do you think Jeffers is a good catcher or not?  Here you have him being traded for a no 1 SP plus a younger version of Jeffers.  On other threads you believe Jeffers should have been gone and we should be trotting out Garver and Rortvedt as our catchers.  Sorry just confused on your takes.

Trade value is often based on how well you hit & not how good you are at you position. Because of where his trade value is right now it's enough to get us close to a Lopez type starter with hopes of further developing him.

Overall Jeffers would be considered a good catcher, IMO his defense leaves much to be desired to meet our need in  being a competitive team now & in the future. He's considered a hitting catcher but one good full season doesn't sell me on who he is & as I've stated before good defense trumps good hitting. Nevertheless I still want a very good defensive catcher that can hit

[nicksaviking]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I agree with you. I want a big bat addition more than I want a starter. 

Jeffers is one of the few players who can bring that bat in.  

I want a starter more since that's what worked last year, but they need to find or develop more consistent producers on offense. Too many current players are roller coaster rides.

[tony&rodney]

Any trade with Miami is a gamble. I don't see them trading Alcantara. Cabrera is still exciting but cannot be counted on and is out of options. Still, he will cost a better return than BTV predicts. Meyer is also a risk and Miami still wants to see if he can pitch to his draft position. Who knows, maybe Miami sends over Cabrera and Meyer if the Twins send back Jeffers, Winder, and Sands (or Jax instead of JW & CS). 

Bats are hard to come by as well. Would a Jeffers and Jax bring back Yandy Diaz? I'm not liking that too much but Diaz hits. What bats are available as clear upgrades. 

No player is off the board if it clearly improves the team. Walker Jenkins has a higher ceiling than any Twin since Buxton was chosen, which makes him virtually untouchable. If the Twins can trade Ryan Jeffers for a strong return they need to have those conversations. Sans a high return, Jeffers stays. BTW, i agree that the Twins need to improve their stock of catchers within the system.

[Riverbrian]

58 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I want a starter more since that's what worked last year, but they need to find or develop more consistent producers on offense. Too many current players are roller coaster rides.

Agreed... Pitching was great so at least hold serve. 

However... even with the addition of a good starter to replace Gray... I'm not sure that we can hold serve. When I say not holding serve... that doesn't mean the roof will cave in but I don't think we can count on the 2023 numbers repeating itself. The offense is going to need to pick up pitching slack that IMO is coming. 

The Dodgers fell from 1st to 13th in Team ERA from 2022 to 2023. The Astros fell from 2nd to 8th. The Braves fell from 5th to 15th in Team ERA from 2022 to 2023. It was the offense of the Dodgers, Astros and Braves that held serve.  

We can't hold serve because we were unusually healthy with the starting rotation in 2024. Lopez, Gray, Ryan and Ober made 119 starts last year. Lopez, Gray, Ryan and Ober were all fantastic for the most part (if you take out a real rough stretch that Ryan had). Most teams just don't get that kind of health and performance combo on the mound. 

Throw in Maeda's 20 and only 23 starts were made outside the top 5 once Ober replaced Mahle in the top 5.  Varland, Kuechel and Mahle made 21 of those 23 start with two bullpen games. 

The pitching performance we had last year was off the charts and I couldn't never understand why some objected to adding offense to support it at the trade deadline.  

Anyway... Fast forward to today. I simply can't expect that 2023 health to smile upon us in 2024 and I can't expect two starters in the Cy Young conversation... even if we somehow maintain the health.

And I say this even if we pluck Blake Snell out of Free Agency or trade for Tyler Glasnow to replace Sonny Gray.

The Rangers had to build their rotation twice last year just to come up with a 3.83 ERA in the playoffs which was just enough to allow the offense to bash their way to a title. We need an offense that scares some people.     

Again... I don't expect a pitching collapse but in IMO... Our offense is going to have to perform better than it did last year because our pitching CAN'T perform better that what we did last year.

The offense needs a big fat dangerous hitter addition to add to Lewis and the resurgence of Correa and Buxton being who they are supposed to be. 

 

 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

I read that Arozarena was being shopped. Contact, Power and Speed. 3 Years of Control. That's the type of bat that I'd like to add.  

 

Jeffers and Canterino for Arozarena?

BBTV says the numbers work. 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

4 hours ago, cmoss84 said:

There is no way Jeffers would get us Burnes. Or Alcantara. These trade values from some of these sites are laughable. 

baseballtradevalues should never be considered as anything other than what it is. Imperfection in an imperfect world. 

However... before you dismiss it. Next trade that happens... reproduce it in BBTV and the value won't be that far off.

Each trade that happens... reproduce it. You'll be surprised how frequently the values align.  

BBTV is pretty impressive. I was my usual skeptical self originally. Now... I frequent the site.   

BTW... I agree Jeffers won't get us Burnes because Milwaukee doesn't need Jeffers.

Jeffers Value though would net Burnes.   

[TopGunn#22]

Good response to cmoss84 Riverbrian.  This would be my response to BiggestRoccoFanEver who tried to point out the same thing:

The trades I proposed with Miami were pretty much dead even.  Jeffers is currently valued at 33.3 points in a trade on BBTV.  Alcantara is 15.3 and Cabrera is 8.5.  That trade favors the Marlins.  Burnes is valued at 32.1.  Jeffers straight up would be a fair trade for a catching needy team.  Milwaukee has William Contreras, so they don't need Jeffers. 

But Miami DOES need a catcher and I listed all the pitchers they currently have who could start.  Alcantara didn't have a good year following his N.L. Cy Young last year.  And as Miami keeps churning out young pitchers he could very possibly be traded.  Miami would shed his 5-year $56 million contract because everyone else in their rotation is at major league minimum.  The Twins would add a pitcher at a cost that is very attractive over the next 5 years.  Can Alcantara regain his old form?  That's the gamble in a Twins/Marlins trade.  

BBTV is a decent gauge to propose a trade that is far more reasonable than some guy posting a Polanco (8.8 value) for value for Logan Gilbert trade a (73.9 value).  

None of us knows how MLB teams actually value each player, but I'm sure they have a system that is "similar" to BBTV.  Otherwise, wouldn't Colorado have unloaded Kris Bryant and his tasty contract to the Twins last season when we were looking for a RH hitting OF???  Shouldn't the Yankees be able to entice the hitting needy Cleveland Guardians to take Giancarlo Stanton for Shane Bieber??  There are reasons Bryant and Stanton can't be moved.  Toxic Contracts.  BBTV at least tries to approximate this dynamic.  

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

The offense needs a big fat dangerous hitter addition to add to Lewis and the resurgence of Correa and Buxton being who they are supposed to be. 

 

Is this a call for Vladdy's son?