Reports: Sonny Gray Signs With Cardinals, Leaving Twins with Draft Pick, Hole in Rotation

[IaBeanCounter]

1 hour ago, August J Gloop said:

Sonny is a grouch, but he's not a dunce. He knows that he didn't have two of his best years in career despite the Twins. He bolted because the Cards offer is above market and he didn't dare let them think about it. I wish him well in all his starts except for any potential one against the Twins. 

Who knows, the Twins and Cardinals could be in the World Series and we would have to face Gray more than once in 2024-26.   

[Major League Ready]

51 minutes ago, Dman said:

Yeah I agree.  Hard to find a Brooks Lee type player in the the comp rounds.  It can be done just not likely to happen. Also takes longer for draft picks to develop than guys closer to ready. So that pick has only so much value.

I was thinking the Twins might get the Brewers to bite on the Comp pick for Burnes plus maybe Polanco or some other player that fits their roster.  That way the Brewers have the certainty of getting the comp pick for Burnes and something else they need.  The Twins get Burnes with the potential to get a comp pick for him after 2024.  Still a fair bit of risk for the Twins if Burnes is injured or has a bad year he might not be worthy of a QO, but in theory both teams could get something they want or need.  Probably depends on if the Brewers are in a partial rebuild mode or still trying to win it all for that to work though.

Listening to the shows on MLB radio, those guys pretty much all believe the Brewers are going to sell like hell!

[ToriiRules!!]

Bring on Trevor Bauer!!!!

[Battle ur tail off]

I'm fine with Twins not signing him. Loved what he did here, but giving out big contracts to guys going into their late 30s isn't what I like to see. 

IMO, Twins will go the route they have done recently and trade a high end player/prospect for a pitcher that fits into the top 3 of our rotation. That or some redundant pieces for a 3-5 type guy and try to fill the rest with system, etc.

Life will go on. Thanks Sonny.

[nicksaviking]

5 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

It’s also a strategy that they will be employing again this offseason.  If the Mariners are indeed in on Yamamoto, we don’t want to be trading with them before the signing.  Mariners signing Yamamoto would mean the store is wide open for trading others out of their depth.  It’s also going to take quite some time. 

Even without Yamamoto, they still have Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert, Woo, Miller, the rookie Hancock, the (gross and untradeable) Marco Gonzales and a TBD Robbie Ray.

So I'd be just fine trading for one Mariner pitcher before a Yamamoto signing and should the Mariners pull it off, another pitcher after!

[Cory Engelhardt]

4 hours ago, Sjoski said:

Not surprised at all Sonny left. I believe he was frustrated in MN with the hyper analytical approach in handling the pitching staff. It was a quick exodus......what does that tell you?

Most people would argue that HOW Gray was handled this year helped him get the free agent contract he did. This line of thinking, what you wrote, doesn't mesh well with reality for me. 

Do you really think the Cardinals are less analytical in their approach than the Twins are? Really? I mean, Twins starting pitchers were 4th in total innings pitched this past year, and Saint Louis was 14th. Do you think Gray is going to throw MORE innings in any of the next 3 seasons than he did in 2023 (184 innings.) If I were betting, I'd take that under for him.

Wish him well on his contract though :)

[Irishman]

Sonny Gray signed with St. Louis Cardinals.   Twins get 1st round pick for losing Gray in FA, right?

[tony&rodney]

15 minutes ago, Irishman said:

Sonny Gray signed with St. Louis Cardinals.   Twins get 1st round pick for losing Gray in FA, right?

They get a pick after the first round is complete, but before the second round begins. The order of comp picks will be determined after all signings are done. This could be pick #31 and the pick can be traded as well. 

[Matt Braun]

7 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Whatever they do this offseason, hopefully it doesn't in any way include Mike Clevinger. Yuck.

But yeah, my guess is they trade for a good starter, as well as bring in at least one if not multiple guys on minor league contracts for depth. They PROBABLY want to package Polanco and a prospect for someone, and maybe that's ok. 

 

To be clear: I'm arguing for a Clevinger-like player in skill, not the man himself.

[TNtwins85]

6 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

It’s also a strategy that they will be employing again this offseason.  If the Mariners are indeed in on Yamamoto, we don’t want to be trading with them before the signing.  Mariners signing Yamamoto would mean the store is wide open for trading others out of their depth.  It’s also going to take quite some time. 

Very true. I believe he has a 40 day window or something around those lines.

[TNtwins85]

47 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Most people would argue that HOW Gray was handled this year helped him get the free agent contract he did. This line of thinking, what you wrote, doesn't mesh well with reality for me. 

Do you really think the Cardinals are less analytical in their approach than the Twins are? Really? I mean, Twins starting pitchers were 4th in total innings pitched this past year, and Saint Louis was 14th. Do you think Gray is going to throw MORE innings in any of the next 3 seasons than he did in 2023 (184 innings.) If I were betting, I'd take that under for him.

Wish him well on his contract though :)

He’ll maybe come close to those innings once I predict. I’d bet money on the under 3 of 3 seasons on this one. It was a win win for the twins and gray. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

8 minutes ago, Matt Braun said:

To be clear: I'm arguing for a Clevinger-like player in skill, not the man himself.

I can’t like this post enough :)

[mrtwinsfan]

8 hours ago, MMMordabito said:

+1

+2

[Blyleven2011]

7 hours ago, roger said:

Very interesting.

Will sit back and watch all the bad mouthing on this and other sites, waiting for the front office to do whatever they will eventually do.

Would be nice if they would give us an early Christmas present  ...

If Seattle does end up with Yamamoto  ,  the Twins should be negotiating as we speak , ( negotiate  like Seattle is going to get  Yamamoto  and negotiate  like they wont once he signs elsewhere ) ....

patience  may be the virtue on what pitcher  the Twins gets , seattle will want to Shed  some payroll if they sign Yamamoto and a more polished pitcher like Gilbert  might be available  over Miller or others ...

[tarheeltwinsfan]

5 hours ago, IaBeanCounter said:

Who knows, the Twins and Cardinals could be in the World Series and we would have to face Gray more than once in 2024-26.   

You are 50% correct. The Cards  will not improve from their 2023 record and have no chance to be in the World Series in 2024. Gray, Gibson and Lynn will all perform more poorly than they did in 2023. Mark my words. 

[Aerodeliria]

When the Twins landed Lopez, I didn't like it, but I understood it. When the Twins lost Sonny Gray, I didn't like it but I knew it was a likely outcome. When the Twins lost Maeda, I didn't like it and I didn't understand it and it didn't have to be the outcome. This was the Twins being cheap. We now have two holes in the rotation. Depending on Ober and Paddack? You're lucky if one of the two makes it to September without being on the DL, and Ober hasn't really impressed me all that much, so I hope it would be Paddack surviving, but that's a much bigger 'if' than Maeda IMHO.

Will we fill the void by landing a solid starter? I honestly don't think so. That direct announcement about losing media money seems like it is going to be used as a built-in excuse for going cheap on all fronts while crossing all fingers that someone breaks out in a big way or we happen to get someone on the cheap who suddenly turns the corner. I hope I am wrong, but this seems like upper management reverting back to old strategies of scooping up warm bodies from the ash-heap to fill any holes.

(Three cheers for the Twins but this off-season has started out so negatively that it's hard to believe that the upper management is thinking much about the fans and that is depressing.)

[terrydactyls]

San Diego lost Wacha, Martinez, and Lugo to free agency (along with Blake Snell who is out of the Twins' price range).  All three of these could be good pickups for around what Maeda got from Detroit -  maybe a little more.

[JoeCool]

I did not expect the Twins to make a run at Sonny Gray especially multi year at his age. He did fantastic as a Twin, but the Cardinals overpaid.

Losing Kenta Maeda to Detroit at a reasonable rate stung a bit. 

I expect the Twins to make a run at Lucas Giolito on a shorter term deal with a slight overpay in a way they targeted Joey Gallo with hopes of catching lightning in a bottle. Giolito is a much better bet than Gallo.  

Corbin Burnes is a possibility but he will come at a cost of E-Rod and/or Festa level prospect and possibly Polonco. It would be a steep cost, but I hope the Twins make a run at Burnes now while Yamamoto looms large and distracts other contenders.  If Burnes gets injured like Tyler Mahle it would be quite devastating to give up a top prospect for a rental we hardly use, but in the risk/reward scenario this risk is worth it to have the talent to make a playoff run again.

I also expect the Twins try to resign Tyler Mahle with a team friendly deal to make that ill fated trade for him feel less painful. 

I think we need three starters like a Giolito, Mahle and hopefully Burnes.  One of our current starters or more will go down with injuries as we saw all last year.  Depth paid off last year.  High upside arms are needed in depth to make a serious run this year.  

[Doctor Wu]

However they end up adding another starter I hope they do it very, very soon. I hate the waiting until February strategy, the front office either hoping that prices will fall or we will pick up some sort of bargain. Get a good arm ASAP before they are signed or dealt to other teams.

[Doctor Wu]

8 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

You are 50% correct. The Cards  will not improve from their 2023 record and have no chance to be in the World Series in 2024. Gray, Gibson and Lynn will all perform more poorly than they did in 2023. Mark my words. 

You could be right. I'd wager that Lynn is the first one either released or traded. He's a streaky pitcher. Looked awful for the White Sox last year, but rebounded a bit after the trade. Still, I think his effective years are behind him. Not really sure what to think about them getting Gibson. Just an innings eater at this point? Although, just from looking at box scores, he signed to strike out more batters this past season with Baltimore. 

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

19 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Do I remember correctly that a team can trade away the end of first round compensatory pick? Certainly could see that included in a deal for a #2 pitcher.

13 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

They get a pick after the first round is complete, but before the second round begins. The order of comp picks will be determined after all signings are done. This could be pick #31 and the pick can be traded as well. 

Just looked this up to check my memory—the competitive balance picks that go to smaller-market and/or losing teams can be traded, but compensation picks cannot be traded. 

However, if the Twins get a CB pick, that does hint at using it as trade capital, since even if they trade the CB pick they still have three picks in the first two rounds.

 

[TwinsDr2021]

15 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Do you really think the Cardinals are less analytical in their approach than the Twins are? Really? I mean, Twins starting pitchers were 4th in total innings pitched this past year, and Saint Louis was 14th.

I have no idea if the Cardinals are more or less analytical, but I will say the Twins being 4th in starting innings probably has to do more with the way the FO built the pitching staff then anything else.

MN had 4 starters start 26 or more games, another start 20 and one with 10. and this was after Mahle got hurt.

As opposed to the Cardinals who had 1 pitcher start over 21 games, two at 21 and one at 20.

This isn't meant to be negative on the Twins approach at all it is meant as a positive to the FO work in building a starting staff, which IMO mean they are going to do what they can to replicate that this year. Meaning going out and probably trading for a starter and trying to get somebody signed to a minor league contract.

 

[DJL44]

6 hours ago, JoeCool said:

I did not expect the Twins to make a run at Sonny Gray especially multi year at his age. He did fantastic as a Twin, but the Cardinals overpaid.

I have already seen national writers predicting that the Sonny Gray signing will be the bargain among all the pitchers signing this offseason. It sounds like he gave the Cardinals a hometown discount.

[Irishman]

Twins executives are expected to cut the payroll. Why cut payroll?  That's not competitive. I believe Twins will fail miserably.  

 

[mikelink45]

20 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Three former Twins pitchers will be starting for St. Louis. Sonny Gray, age 34, for the next 3 years at 25 million per year;  300 pound Lance Lynn, age 36, for 10 million in 2024 plus a 1 million buyout in 2025 or a 12 million contract; and old friend, Kyle Gibson, age 36 for 13 million in 2024 and a 12 million team option for 2025. I wish Sonny Gray and Kyle Gibson well.  Lance Lynn...not my favorite. A total of 25m plus 10m plus 12m = $47,000,000 for 2024. Average age of 35.33 years with those 3 new starting pitchers. I am glad the Twins are not on the hook for any of these 3 contracts. Bill Petti wrote an interesting article on Pitcher Aging Curves in Fangraphs published April 30, 2012.  On the average, it does not bode well for the 2024 Cardinals having 60 % of their 5 starting pitchers averaging 35.33 years of age. Plus an aging Goldschmidt, age 36 at 22 million, Arrenado at age 33 at 35 million and Contreras (a 32 year old catcher) at 18 million. The Cardinals are an expensive, old team. With the signings of Gray, Lynn and Gibson, they just got more expensive and older. 

Somehow a rotation with Gray/Gibson/Lynn does not look good to me.  With Gray, if he needs to come out after 5 they need a good BP. Gibson has a career 4.54 era and last year it was 4.73.  He was never a big game pitcher.  Lynn has a career 3.74 era and last year was 5.73.   I will never think well of Lynn after his pouting Twins career, but I also think he is done.  Not sure the Cardinals are really a lot better. 

[HrbieFan]

I'm intrigued by what our analytics team could do for Giolito. He has the arm and the arsenal, not sure if he has what it takes between the ears. 

[Whitey333]

Draft picks become prospects.  Most prospects are suspects.  The only reason the Twins move on from Gray is draft picks don't cos t 75 million dollars.  They are cheap.  That's why it becomes a good deal and that's only if they pan out.  Most do not.

[FanSince1961]

6 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

However they end up adding another starter I hope they do it very, very soon. I hate the waiting until February strategy, the front office either hoping that prices will fall or we will pick up some sort of bargain. Get a good arm ASAP before they are signed or dealt to other teams.

The early signings going on so far this year suggest to me that everything in the free agent market will move faster than last year.  It will be interesting to see if that thought holds.

[tony&rodney]

18 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

They get a pick after the first round is complete, but before the second round begins. The order of comp picks will be determined after all signings are done. This could be pick #31 and the pick can be traded as well. 

Sorry, it is the Competitive Balance Picks that can be traded, not the Comp Pick for Sonny Gray.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

Draft picks become prospects.  Most prospects are suspects.  The only reason the Twins move on from Gray is draft picks don't cos t 75 million dollars.  They are cheap.  That's why it becomes a good deal and that's only if they pan out.  Most do not.

Draft picks can also be turned into assets to trade for known quantities. Example A; how the Twins acquired Sonny Gray initially. 

Just because the Twins chose to not pay (or overpay) for Gray's free agent years when he is 35-37 years old doesn't mean that the process for how they got him was bad.

Having more assets to use to acquire known quantities is a good thing.