Five Trades to Add a Starting Center Fielder

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins have an unfortunate issue in center field. Despite having understandably paid Byron Buxton, the inability of the talented outfielder to stay healthy has created a hole on the grass. Derek Falvey adequately addressed the issue in 2023, but they must follow a similar blueprint in 2024.

Image courtesy of Kirby Lee, USA Today

When the Twins front office gave Byron Buxton his $100 million deal, they did so knowing the discount due to his limited ability was baked in. That never became more prominent than in 2023, when Rocco Baldelli was forced to use his best outfield defender solely as a designated hitter. As his aching knee never improved, the defensive position became that of Michael A. Taylor.

At this moment, Taylor is still a free agent and is far from a lock to find a re-up with his recent team. Buxton is coming off yet another knee procedure, and what he can provide coming into the year has never been more murky. Needing a legitimate starting-caliber option, it’s an area to be addressed. Cody Bellinger isn’t a realistic free agent target, and while either Harrison Bader or Kevin Kiermaier may be, the trade market could also work.

Jack Suwinski - Pittsburgh Pirates
Easily the most unlikely of the options here, Suwinski is just 25 years old and doesn’t enter arbitration until 2026. However, he plays for the Pirates, and how soon Pittsburgh believes they can contend could make him expendable. They have Paul Skenes coming, and talents like Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Henry Davis, and Endy Rodriguez make them intriguing. If Suwinski is seen as part of that core, he will stay.

Should Pittsburgh make him available, Suwinski would give the Twins both an immediate and long-term option as a starter. He’s come into his own as a power hitter, but his defensive value is uncertain. He posted ugly DRS (defensive runs saved) numbers this year but did show well by outs above average. As a left-handed player, he’d fit in between Matt Wallner and Max Kepler.

Proposed trade: Suwinski for Emmanuel Rodriguez, Brent Headrick, and Josh Winder (Trade Value Simulator says: Slight disadvantage PIT)

Tommy Edman - St. Louis Cardinals
This one is fun for a couple of reasons. Minnesota has looked into at least a few outfielders with Cardinals ties during recent seasons, and Edman’s brother, Johnny, works as a Data Quality Engineer in the Twins front office. Traditionally an infielder playing shortstop and second base, he was a defensive dynamo in those spots last year. Defensive analytics don’t love him as much this year, but he added centerfield to his repertoire for the first time consistently this year.

Similar to Taylor, Edman is about league average offensively at his best. He has hit double-digit homers during all of his full professional seasons. He also steals a bunch of bags, which would help that aspect of Minnesota’s game. There is a lot to like here, and while he will keep getting more expensive in arbitration (he made $4.2 million in 2023), he is under team control for the next two years.

Proposed trade: Edman for David Festa and Jordan Balazovic (TVS says: Slight disadvantage STL)

Dylan Carlson - St. Louis Cardinals
If the price for Edman is too steep, another center fielder from St. Louis could be the fit. Carlson has faded since finishing third in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2021. Injuries kept him out of action for a good portion of the season last year, but this is still a former consensus top-20 prospect. He is under team control through 2026, so there is ample opportunity to get him right if the Twins think they can do that.

During 2022, Carlson posted six defensive runs saved and was worth four outs above average. He ranked well by Statcast’s metric last year, but obviously, the sample was much more limited. This would be an upside play for Minnesota, and by starting him every day, they’d certainly be looking for the guy who drew rave reviews as a prospect.

Proposed trade: Carlson for Simeon Woods Richardson and Keoni Cavaco (TVS says: Essentially neutral)

Jo Adell - Los Angeles Angels
Last season, Adell played in the fewest games of his pro career at the major league level. After 88 games and a lackluster 78 OPS+ in 2022, the Angels are forcing Adell to prove he has it before committing to him yet again. Although Mike Trout will eventually move away from center field, it doesn’t seem now is the time for Adell.

As a former top-five consensus prospect, Adell’s name is well known. He has struggled to replicate minor league success for Los Angeles, though, and he may benefit from a change of scenery. He’s under team control through 2027, and seeing better K/BB rates at Triple-A Salt Lake last season may be enough to warrant someone giving him some real run. As the Opening Day starter, Adell would be a gamble, but the Twins could strike gold if things click.

Proposed trade: Adell for Nick Gordon and Christian MacLeod (TVS says: Slight advantage LAA)

Mickey Moniak - Los Angeles Angels
The first overall pick in the 2016 Major League Draft, the Twins could add a third such player to their active roster. Joining Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa, Moniak seeks to substantiate his 2023 as a late-blooming breakout. He played in just 85 games for the Angels, but it resulted in a 113 OPS+. The sample sizes are small, but that’s lightyears better than the 35 OPS+ he posted over 66 games in his first three major league seasons.

Moniak is probably considered part of the Angels' future plans, but the front office has been largely inept for some time. He was strong defensively in center and would give the Twins another young addition to the roster. Moniak is only 25 and doesn’t hit arbitration until after the upcoming season. Should the resurgence be believed, his addition would be nice for Minnesota.

Proposed trade: Moniak for Yasser Mercedes and Trevor Larnach (TVS says: Significant advantage LAA)

Which of these names do you feel most excited about? Is there a return that would make you uncomfortable to get one in return?

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[darin617]

Pass on all the players an the trades looked bad from MN side as well.

[Jim wyllie]

Pass on all I say trade with Houston for Chaz Mccormick 

[tony&rodney]

Thank you for the work on developing ideas for trades. 

The suggestions for acquiring Dylan Carlson, Jo Adell, and Mickey Moniak are all reasonable. The first two are not options from my side. 

[Doctor Gast]

Prerequisite is that they can really play CF not only CF is on their resume`. That leaves us with Dylan Carlson or Mickey Moniak. I'm leaning towards Carlson. I like how STL develop their defense.

[nicksaviking]

Suwinski, and Moniak are obviously interesting, but those two and Adell would seem to compound the team's already unsustainable strikeout problem. 

It's interesting that Carlson's offensive decline coincided with a sharp drop in his K%. Coincidence? Neither Cardinal has me very interested but Festa is the only player listed that I'd have any kind of reservation about moving so I wouldn't put up much of an objection.

But I really think everyone needs to pay attention to the active roster. Jeffers, Lewis, Castro, Kepler, Wallner, Kirilloff, Farmer, Polanco, Julien, Vazquez, Correa and Buxton are all basically locks. That's 12 offensive players and makes Gordon/Larnach the "easy" removals. This team does not have a ton of flexibility to add MLB deals for hitters. If they start signing and trading for more bats, they have to start planning on removing some of the vets. The math just doesn't work otherwise.

[TopGunn#22]

Great suggestions Ted, I'm with Doc Gast and tony&rodney .  Carlson and Moniak are the two best suggestions.  Moniak is a LH hitter while Carlson is a switch hitter.  I like the deal for Carlson the best.  Not a bad idea to gamble on some upside.  I'm not sure which side of the plate Carlson is better but with Castro also being a SH we could make something work.   

[ashbury]

I think it will take more than proposed, to pry Carlson away from St Loo.  I wouldn't expect they are super motivated to trade him, but MLBTR does mention him as a possible candidate, due to a piddling $1.8M salary.

I'd offer Keoni Cavaco, Aaron Sabato, Alerick Soularie, Jose Salas, and if they insist on pitching, add Francis Peguero.

Not sure I'm serious?  Neither am I.    I think it's time for some minor league housecleaning and I would pitch it as these guys needing a change of scenery to excel.

I would not apply much pitching capital in acquiring an outfielder unless he's a difference maker.

[DJL44]

Would rather get Trent Grisham from the cost cutting Padres. I think they still have a chance at Kiermaier, I'm not sure how much demand there will be for him in free agency. There aren't a lot of teams looking for a CF.

[DocBauer]

Suwinski is interesting for sure. But are the Pirates really looking to move on from a talented young player that might be part of a better future that begins over the next couple of seasons? I think not.

I'm interested in Edman, despite being a little older at 28, as he can hit a little, shows a little pop, and can run, and is a switch hitter.  It's interesting that he can play the middle INF as well. But if he just added CF to his defensive repertoire, how good is he there? I mean, it sounds like we already have this guy in Castro. That's not a bad thing as maybe we could use 2 of the same player. But....

All the rest sound like guys who can't hit at the ML level, or have forgotten how to. So why not just turn to Martin, trust in him, and see what he can do after his bounce back 2023. Will he be worse than the other guys?

Rumor has it the Brewers are about 4 deep at CF and may have some interesting options to move.

[Doctor Gast]

What are these teams need? & how do these proposed trades meet those needs. How do we know that they'd be interested in what we have to offer? But it's a nice try. 

[stringer bell]

I’d like to see Dylan Carlson manning center or left for the Twins. His L-R splits show him as a better hitter vs. LH pitching and he’s a capable center fielder.

Acquiring a center fielder who makes less than MAT made without clearing too many prospects is a tough needle to thread. If the Twins can do so, it will clear some salary to acquire starting pitching help. 

[Fatbat]

I love the idea of some minor league house cleaning if it brings an above average defensive CF on the cheaper end. MAT was nice to have but lets try something similar but different. 

[Blyleven2011]

I'd it's defense we are looking for , re-sign Taylor  ...

But if we can trade a surplus of fringe minor leaguers as mentioned  above , by all means do  , but do it right ...

[JD-TWINS]

Didn’t really see any appealing guy in the mix shown here - can’t imagine Pirates consider moving their guy. Spending $6M for Taylor as an insurance policy is as good as any of these options shown.

So, Buxton playing CF is realistically, what - 30%???…….we have inexpensive guys that have played reasonable CF for us previously and are rostered, Castro & Gordon. We have the potential Buxton could play 30-40 games & I would think we’ll know that by March 1st…..still time to get something done via trade if absolutely necessary.

Martin being ready by end of June is at least a 50/50 probability.

I don’t see a need to sign or trade for any CF help.

[TNtwins85]

I only see moniak and Carlson as worthy here. Carlson scares me in a twins hitting system though. The home runs are great but the free swinging killed soooooo many innings this last season. I’ll take my chances on a high OBP in Martin than trading and trying to fit any of these guys into a CF mix. I even like Kiersey more than any of these guys really. 

[Whitey333]

I don't see a need to bring in another centerfielder.  Resign MAT.  He did well and hit over twenty homeruns.  That would satisfy all the swing for the fences people.  Buxton?  Buxton who?  It's long past time to plan him not being an option in center or at bat.. We've been waiting for him for eight years to play.  We paid him $100 million to be a full time resident of the injured list.  Even if he is deemed healthy enough to open the season in center, it seems to be just a matter of time until he takes his seat on the injured list.  He's only played 1 full year of 8.  The rest have been around 50% of games.  Time to move on from Byron.

[Otaknam]

Any trade to add a center fielder should be for a right handed bat or switch hitter. Adell would be worth a shot if it doesn’t cost too much. He was a highly regarded prospect who hasn’t panned out, so maybe a change of scenery would help. I’m not sure why the Angels would trade Moniak, as he has been solid for them and is another highly regarded prospect who is producing. 

[old nurse]

If Adell is out of options, has not performed well. He would be available as a DFA at some point.  A swap of Gordon would be enough. The Twins probably had similar in Celestino. The top 5 prospect ranking reflects just how much stock to put in prospect rankings 

[rv78]

Maybe the Twins can get Buxton to agree to a trade freeing up $15+M in salary so they can actually go out and get a full-time CF that is worth having on the roster. Then this problem that they have to deal with every year would go away.

[darin617]

On 11/24/2023 at 12:23 PM, Jim wyllie said:

Pass on all I say trade with Houston for Chaz Mccormick 

Now that would be a solid trade idea. I know they made it sound like Dusty didn't like him or something. But Dusty is gone now. Chaz Mccormick would not be cheap either. 

[PatPfund]

I'm not really fired up to send prospects and/or pitching for a CF. Especially when there is likely to be a veteran of near or better quality available fairly cheap on the FA market (like MAT), and a couple potential prospects on the Saints (Martin in particular).