Could Lucas Giolito and the Twins Be a Perfect Match?

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins are very familiar with the long-time AL Central starter, whose tumultuous entry into free agency could create a mutually attractive short-term opportunity. 

Image courtesy of Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Last time the Minnesota Twins saw Lucas Giolito, it didn't go well for him. Cleveland had acquired the right-hander off waivers from the Angels, in a last-ditch effort to catch Minnesota in the AL Central, and started him in the opener of a crucial September series. Giolito was clobbered for nine earned runs in three innings, and the Twins won 20-6. That was that.

Before seeing Giolito at his worse, we'd all seen plenty of Giolito at his best. Prior to his drop-off over the past couple seasons, he starred for the White Sox as one of the American League's better starting pitchers, receiving down-ballot Cy Young votes in 2019, 2020, and 2021. During that span the righty posted a 3.47 ERA and 3.54 WHIP in 428 innings. He was clear-cut frontline starter. THAT is the pitcher you're looking for to replace Sonny Gray.

But it's not the pitcher Giolito has been over the past two years. In 2022 he was oddly mediocre, posting a 4.90 ERA and 4.06 FIP despite being healthy enough to make 30 starts. In 2023 he pitched reasonably well for Chicago in the first half before being traded to the Angels the deadline, waived in late August, and claimed by Cleveland. His disastrous results after being traded (6.96 ERA) tanked his season, but Giolito still didn't really look like his prime self before then.

In other words, there's plenty of warranted skepticism surrounding Giolito as he makes his first foray into free agency. That's unfortunate for him, but could play into Minnesota's favor as they look to secure a Gray replacement within certain constraints and parameters.

As I detailed recently, the Twins front office will be somewhat handcuffed in their pursuit of a playoff-caliber starter to offset the loss of Gray in the rotation, because of their massive payroll commitments for 2025. This makes it hard to envision signing a free agent to a contract that includes a salaries in the $20M+ range over multiple years. 

Giolito's tough circumstances heading into free agency mean it's unlikely he'll be offered a multi-year deal with those kinds of annual salaries. Like many others who've been in similar situations, he will essentially face two choices: take a one-year "make good" deal to re-establish his value and hit the market again, or settle for a multi-year deal a relatively low AAV (i.e. the Phil Hughes path).

Either one of those avenues could potentially make him a fit for the Twins. If a number can be reached that makes sense, there are several things to like about Giolito:

• At 29, he's one of the younger starters on the free agent market.
• From the 2019-through-21 seasons, he was everything you would want in a frontline starter and co-ace for Lopez. Giolito's cumulative fWAR during that span (11.3) was better than any three-year stretch in Gray's career, even though it included the COVID season.
• Giolito has lost a bit of velocity since then, but only about 1 MPH, and he rebounded a bit this year from his 2022 dip. His best pitch, the changeup, continues to get whiffs at a 35% clip. 
• He really stands out in terms of extension (~90th percentile every year), which we know is something the Twins love and feel they can optimize around.

If Giolito were to hit the open market two years ago, following his 2021 season, he would have been in line for a $100 million deal if not $200 million. Obviously he can't erase what's happened since then, but the fact remains: he's shown to be that caliber of talent, isn't yet 30, and has no clear injury concerns.

Even in a down season, Giolito still showed glimpses of the frontline starter he's been in the past. In fact, before Chicago traded him at the deadline he was a solid approximation of what you'd realistically hope to get from Gray next year: 3.79 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 3.1 BB/9. Then he got abruptly traded twice in a short span, and everything fell apart. Not saying you can totally dismiss the last two months, especially in light of his previous season, but it's a pretty big caveat and a legit reason to believe.

If Giolito is open a betting himself on a one-year deal to re-establish his value and score the kind of free agent contract he feels he deserves, I'd be in favor of bidding aggressively to come out on top. Extending the QO means the Twins had $20 million earmarked for Gray next year, and I'd be up for using most or even all of that to convince Giolito on a one-year pact. (Especially because, like Gray, the Twins could QO him after the season if he bounces back.)

Lucas Giolito was originally drafted in 2012, the same year as Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. His career has since following a long and winding path, but now, the time feels right for him to reunite with his fellow stars of the draft class and join Minnesota's suddenly-reputed pitching program.

He's a risk, to be sure. But the Twins' existing rotation depth enables them to take such a risk, and the payoff would be well worth the gamble on the right terms.

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[Dman]

Would love to get him on a one year deal, but I think pitching needy teams might still give a good AAV on two or three year deal.  Getting pitching in free agency has never really gone well for the Twins, but maybe there are too many warts for teams to bet big on him?  Will have to wait and see but he is a really nice bounce back candidate.  Just not sure how far the Twins would go if he doesn't do a one year deal.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I am 100% in favor of signing him, and maybe even more so than any other/most free agent starters. He has too much talent and ability to perform like he did last year. Plus, coming off a year when the White Sox were a MESS and he divorced his high school sweetheart, I'd imagine a fresh start in a new organization with a solid infrastructure in place could get him back to his 2021 levels. 

I also love the health and how he has thrown a number of innings consistently for each of the past 5 years.

Sign me up.

[DJL44]

I would rather try to find a pitcher who wasn't godawful first.

[Parfigliano]

No thanks.  Giolito isnt a Sonny Gray replacement. He's 5 steps backward.

[Hunter McCall]

The reason Giolito is so intriguing to me is because of the situation he's coming from. How many of those White Sox players that were once thought to be stars showed significant regression during the downfall? Is Giolito a victim to a toxic work environment? Does he just need to be in a functional organization to get back to the Giolito of old? I'm not sure, but I sure would like to find out. A 29-year-old once top prospect turned Cy Young candidate on a discount deal? I'm all in on testing the waters. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

17 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

No thanks.  Giolito isnt a Sonny Gray replacement. He's 5 steps backward.

Don’t look at what Gray pitched like in New York. 

[Blyleven2011]

If , if , if ....

If giolito bets on his self and signs a 1 year deal to get his game back to form , the FO will be waiting for him to fall into their laps ...

[EGFTShaw]

3 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Don’t look at what Gray pitched like in New York. 

The difference, and it's a huge difference, is that SonnyG's has had an uptick since leaving NY and LG has gone in the opposite direction.

Two Trends passing in the night.

[EGFTShaw]

" Prior to his drop-off over the past couple seasons"

Enough said.

👎👎

[Cory Engelhardt]

6 minutes ago, EGFTShaw said:

The difference, and it's a huge difference, is that SonnyG's has had an uptick since leaving NY and LG has gone in the opposite direction.

Two Trends passing in the night.

Maybe that's true. He is still 29 (5 years  younger than Gray) and by my count is the only free agent starter who has thrown over 161 innings in every full season back to 2018. 

Even his xfip last year was only 4.45.

Obviously his numbers last year were not good. But I'd prefer to bet on him compared to most of the other free agent starters who are available. Almost all of them are older than he is, and most don't have the track record of innings that he does.

[CRF]

I'd pass on Giolito, but he's the kind of guy that this FO would take a shot at. The pitcher I'd really like to land is Snell. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

5 minutes ago, CRF said:

I'd pass on Giolito, but he's the kind of guy that this FO would take a shot at. The pitcher I'd really like to land is Snell. 

I'd be super excited for Snell too, and having Rocco on board doesn't hurt their chances.

But Snell is older than Giolito, and his walk rate of almost 5 batters per 9 scares me, along with having only 2 seasons in his career hit 180 innings (and only 5 over 128) has me questioning his durability a bit.

That said, we get Snell that would be exciting. I'd also be excited for Giolito at a MUCH lower cost.

[D.C Twins]

Pretty simple.... if the FO feels confident that they have identified the source of his regression and can address it.... then go for it.

If they are just hoping that he gets 'it' back then... no

[Major League Ready]

36 minutes ago, EGFTShaw said:

The difference, and it's a huge difference, is that SonnyG's has had an uptick since leaving NY and LG has gone in the opposite direction.

Two Trends passing in the night.

Gray was 28 when he was struggling in NY and he bounced back.  Giolitto remains to be seen.  Not my first choice but I would not be surprised to see Giolitto bounce back in a big way.

[EGFTShaw]

LG is what the Twins FO has done, even back beyond our current FO, is go cheap and hope to hit a HR.

As a Twins fan, with a team set up to win, No Thanks.

All indications are that SonnyG will leave, I am aware of that, as I stated in other articles when it comes to signing him its length/$$s conundrum.  We are not going to pay for 4 years of SonnyG.  2-3 years perhaps.

But if we are not spending $20-$25M to keep SonnyG, we sure as hell not getting the other pitchers since either the term of the contract will be too long or the AAV will be too high.

Snell?  If you think this, please share with all Twins Fans what you're smoking. 

Often, it is better the Devil you know, than the Devil you don't know.  Hence spending the $$s on C4 AFTER we had him one year makes sense.

If you 💖LG or any other Bet On Their Upside FA pitchers great, but 💖the from afar.

[Ricky Vaughn]

I'm not opposed to him, but going up to 20M on a one year contract means you would have given him a qualifying offer. I don't think any team would go there.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

57 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Don’t look at what Gray pitched like in New York. 

 

53 minutes ago, EGFTShaw said:

The difference, and it's a huge difference, is that SonnyG's has had an uptick since leaving NY and LG has gone in the opposite direction.

Two Trends passing in the night.

Not to mention the fact he was only making $10-12m over last few years. 

Nick thinks it will take close to $20m for a Giolito?  No thanks.

Unless you can get him on a make good contract (think 1yr/$5m) I wouldn't touch him with a 10-foot pole.

[Cory Engelhardt]

6 minutes ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

I'm not opposed to him, but going up to 20M on a one year contract means you would have given him a qualifying offer. I don't think any team would go there.

That would have been interesting to see, right? Through the end of July (prior to being traded the first time) he was 6-6 with a 3.79 era for the White Sox. In that time he had throw 121 innings with 131 strikeouts. Hypothetically if he hadn't been traded, and his overall numbers didn't crash and burn like they did, I wouldn't have been shocked at all to see Chicago offer him the QO. Just my 2 cents.

Doesn't take away that he did in fact crash and burn. More just saying.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

That would have been interesting to see, right? Through the end of July (prior to being traded the first time) he was 6-6 with a 3.79 era for the White Sox. In that time he had throw 121 innings with 131 strikeouts. Hypothetically if he hadn't been traded, and his overall numbers didn't crash and burn like they did, I wouldn't have been shocked at all to see Chicago offer him the QO. Just my 2 cents.

Doesn't take away that he did in fact crash and burn. More just saying.

For reference, after he was traded, he went 2-9 with a 6.96 era. Oof.

[MMMordabito]

Can Maki replace the Tacky?

[Galen]

No

[terrydactyls]

"Perfect Match"?  Not by a long shot.  But on a low-cost one-year deal, I say go for it.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

He is low cost option.  Not a terrible option, but he has as good of a shot at being a turkey as he does being a really good pitcher next year.  He has lost all confidence,  and I believe a lot of spin in the last couple years along a dip in velocity.  He needs a remake.  Maybe the twins can do that adding an additional pitch and increasing the spin rates again.  If they want to take a shot fine, but likely not someone I would be targeting.  

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I would rather try to find a pitcher who wasn't godawful first.

This. I don't want to bet on a return to greatness, I want a guy that was great last year and the year before (as he's more likely to be so again this year). Note, more likely and risk .....we can't predict the future, but we have to try. 

[Nick Nelson]

23 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

This. I don't want to bet on a return to greatness, I want a guy that was great last year and the year before (as he's more likely to be so again this year). Note, more likely and risk .....we can't predict the future, but we have to try. 

Realistically, the Twins aren't going to spend on a guy like that in free agency. They may well trade for one. But they could sign Giolito in addition, why not?

IMO Giolito is the absolute best SP you could realistically expect the Twins to sign in FA. And that's not such a bad thing? They built the league's best rotation last year without any need for using free agency.

EDIT: Bumping this piece I wrote from last offseason on the problems with buying high on free agent starters. This is why I don't really agree with the prevailing thought in these comments that the Twins should sign someone who was great in 2023. It's not that predictive and usually leads to overpaying massively. (The prime example I used at the time? Carlos Rodon.)

[chpettit19]

He wouldn't be my first choice, but if he's still hanging around the FA pool in January or February I'd give him a call and see what his number is.

I know this is considered blasphemy by some around here, but I'm not sold on Ryan. I don't know that Ryan can be more than a #4 or 5 pitcher (not worthy of playoff starts) over the long run. Can Ober put together another healthy year and maintain his production? It'd be nice, and I'd be ok if he was my #3 starter in the playoffs if he can stay stronger throughout the whole year moving forward. Paddack is a complete wild card to me at this point. Could be a 2. Could be a 5. I don't like going into 2024 counting on 2 of those 3 guys needing to be playoff caliber starters. I think the Twins need to aim higher and bring in more of a sure thing to slot alongside Lopez to front the rotation (Yamamoto would get a ton of money from me if I were running things). And I don't think Giolito is any more sure than the 3 incumbants.

That being said, I wouldn't mind adding him to that group of 3 after they bring in the more sure thing. How you manage that rotation to start the year would be a bit of a challenge, but they can figure it out. I don't like Giolito as "the signing" for the rotation, but he'd be a really nice signing in general, assuming a cheapish 1 year deal.

[weneedneshek]

I'm not completely opposed but it would have to be a depth signing that occurs in addition to a Gray replacement and it would have to be no more than $10-12 million on one year

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Realistically, the Twins aren't going to spend on a guy like that in free agency. They may well trade for one. But they could sign Giolito in addition, why not?

IMO Giolito is the absolute best SP you could realistically expect the Twins to sign in FA. And that's not such a bad thing? They built the league's best rotation last year without any need for using free agency.

EDIT: Bumping this piece I wrote from last offseason on the problems with buying high on free agent starters. This is why I don't really agree with the prevailing thought in these comments that the Twins should sign someone who was great in 2023. It's not that predictive and usually leads to overpaying massively. (The prime example I used at the time? Carlos Rodon.)

If you are ok HOPING he's not a number 4....that's fine. But that's a lot of money to spend on a guy that wasn't even close to good the second half of last year.....why not just go with Varland at that point and use the money elsewhere (or so you can afford to add an expensive SP at the deadline)? No one, at least not me, is saying paying big money for FA pitchers always works....but we largely ignore extensions when looking at SP contracts past 30....but those aren't any different than FA signings, not in terms of how good a SP can be. 

It's fine if you want to make this bet, but it's a big bet on a guy that was awful for much of last year.

[FlyingFinn]

Giolito is now a high ceiling, low floor pitcher. You can pick your years and say he will be either one in the future.