Could Lucas Giolito and the Twins Be a Perfect Match?

[DJL44]

35 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Realistically, the Twins aren't going to spend on a guy like that in free agency. They may well trade for one. But they could sign Giolito in addition, why not?

IMO Giolito is the absolute best SP you could realistically expect the Twins to sign in FA. And that's not such a bad thing? They built the league's best rotation last year without any need for using free agency.

Ok, but can't they add someone who was at least decent instead of someone who ended the season pitching horribly? I'd rather try Louie Varland in the rotation than Giolito. I would have given Maeda the qualifying offer rather than sign Giolito at what they're projecting he will get as a free agent. MLB trade rumors has Giolito projected at 2 years $44M!

I think they may regret not offering Maeda the QO. 1 year $20M looks like a bargain for any pitcher you would actually want in your rotation.

[Nick Nelson]

17 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Ok, but can't they add someone who was at least decent instead of someone who ended the season pitching horribly? I'd rather try Louie Varland in the rotation than Giolito.

If Giolito fizzles, Varland is there and ready to fall back on. That's kind of the whole point of my premise here. The Twins have enough SP depth (if they're confident in Paddack, which I am) to take a bit of a gamble on a high-upside FA. Other teams who need more of a sure thing could shy away from Giolito, which gives MN an advantage potentially. 

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

If Giolito fizzles, Varland is there and ready to fall back on. That's kind of the whole point of my premise here. The Twins have enough SP depth (if they're confident in Paddack, which I am) to take a bit of a gamble on a high-upside FA. Other teams who need more of a sure thing could shy away from Giolito, which gives MN an advantage potentially. 

Yeah, but if Giolito fizzles those losses in April and May (and possibly longer, see Joey Gallo) count in the standings. The Twins should not be acting like a 4th place team trying to catch lightning in a bottle. No scholarships for bad veteran pitchers.

I still think Maeda is worth $20M more than Giolito for 2024. 

[Woof Bronzer]

Are we really back to taking a flyer on #4/5 starters whose best years are behind them?  Varland can be a functional #5 for a fraction of the cost of Giolito.  

Lack of #4/5 starters has never ever been a problem for the Twins!  We have them in droves.  Ryan, Varland, Woods Richardson, Ober, I'm sure I'm forgetting a couple.  The hole the Twins need to fill is #2 starter.

[Harrison Greeley III]

1 hour ago, MMMordabito said:

Can Maki replace the Tacky?

Wow! HAHAHA

Post-spidertack ban, his off-speed stuff hasn't really dropped off in spin-rate, but that fastball is down a little more than 170 RPM. If he is to bounce back, he needs those RPMs back on the fastball (which would help his change-up) and he would benefit from an east/west sweeper-type pitch in the mix. 

I'd lean toward passing on this project. But the bounce-back is a real possibility. 

[South Dakota Tom]

I tend to think that 4.5 pretty good years and .5 bad years = 90% pretty good.  Especially when that last half was going from stability (albeit in a toxic environment, by all accounts) to the mess that was the Angels, to trying to be a savior in Cleveland, all while going through personal turmoil in your private life.

The bad half year says that Giolito is probably more likely to take a 1-year deal and bet on himself, but if the price has gone down to a $12M AAV, I think that's a pretty good 3-year get and sends the message to him that we believe in him and think that if he joins this team, he'll be a solid core piece now through age 32.  Also sets up some multi-year rotation stability, which we haven't had in a long, long time (nor has most any other team, for that matter).

Almost any new acquisition (and in reading through the Athletic's list of needs for each team, I think "starting pitcher" showed up in almost all of them, and 3 times for St. Louis), the trade market is going to be tough to mine.  The free agent pitchers do have some other candidates (I'm less enthused about Snell due to the unsustainable strand rate and walks, as well as the Cy-bonus he'll get), but would be happy with two from the tier of Stroman, Maeda, Ryu, Wacha, E Rodriguez and him.  I'd like to have 7 SPs ahead of Raya/Festa/Sands/Winder/Balazovic/SWR/Canterino.  So that means 2 guys more than Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Paddock, Varland.

The system that seems to work best for this team is to get one (via trade or free agency) soon, and one more who drops through the cracks until February or March.

[Nick Nelson]

20 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Are we really back to taking a flyer on #4/5 starters whose best years are behind them?  Varland can be a functional #5 for a fraction of the cost of Giolito.  

Lack of #4/5 starters has never ever been a problem for the Twins!  We have them in droves.  Ryan, Varland, Woods Richardson, Ober, I'm sure I'm forgetting a couple.  The hole the Twins need to fill is #2 starter.

Sonny Gray in his age 26-28 seasons: 4.59 ERA, 4.20 FIP

Lucas Giolito in his age 26-28 seasons: 4.43 ERA, 4.39 FIP

You don't have to look very far to see why it is unwise to assume a pitcher's "best years are behind them" because of a mild mid-career lull. The Reds decided not to make that assumption with Gray after his tough age-28 year in NY and they got an All-Star who received Cy Young votes for their faith.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins may sign a high-priced FA starting pitcher, but they are unlikely to do so. Everything in their past practices makes me bet against a signing like Jordan Montgomery, Snell, or Yamamoto. But I don't bet. I just don't see it. 

Lucas Giolito as an inexpensive add seems fairly innocuous. Will he sign for nearly nothing? I doubt it. TheAthletic pins LG for 4/$70M and MLBTR assesses him as 2/$44M. Even half of that on a one year deal seems too much. If we are picking teams, who is picking Giolito over Ober, Paddack, or Varland? I agree that many will see Giolito as a better pitcher than those three guys. I can respect that opinion. However, I prefer the current Twins above LG.

I don't believe Lucas Giolito is worthless or cannot find a modicum of success as a starting pitcher at the MLB level. I believe the ship has sailed for his value above a middle or back end (#3-5) starter and the Twins have those guys on inexpensive contracts already.  The discussion and consideration of his worth is a good exercise and I spent a little time looking over his trends about a week ago out of curiosity. The numbers published recently for anticipated contracts do not paint a positive viewpoint for the Twins adding a player like Lucas Giolito. Actually it also doesn't look like a good deal for some other free agent pitchers either. 

The Twins should be in search of a partner (team) that sees value in the players within the Twins system and find a suitable trade that brings back a good starting pitcher. 

[DocBauer]

I was actually surprised a couple weeks ago when I looked up his 2023 numbers. While he wasn't having any sort of career season, all of his numbers were actually quite good while in Chicago. I had been under the misguided assumption his whole season had been a disaster. Nope.

In 21 starts, 121 IP, he had a .379 ERA and 4.43 FIP, and 118 ERA+ with 9.7 K per 9 and a 1.223 WHIP.

Had he continued on his 2023 path, and not been traded, I think we'd be hearing a lot of talk about how great he rebounded from a bad 2021 and who was going to give him a 4 or 5 year deal.

Instead, we're debating about him as a surprise/steal signing. 

If his head is screwed on straight and the Twins see what there is to fix, and believe they have a real plan to get him back to his "normal" self, I'm on board with this idea. I'd just like to have a 2nd year option if things go well.

[Shaitan]

If this is the level of quality they're going to sign, just bring back Kuechel for like $18 million less.

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

6 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

I was actually surprised a couple weeks ago when I looked up his 2023 numbers. While he wasn't having any sort of career season, all of his numbers were actually quite good while in Chicago. I had been under the misguided assumption his whole season had been a disaster. Nope.

In 21 starts, 121 IP, he had a .379 ERA and 4.43 FIP, and 118 ERA+ with 9.7 K per 9 and a 1.223 WHIP.

Had he continued on his 2023 path, and not been traded, I think we'd be hearing a lot of talk about how great he rebounded from a bad 2021 and who was going to give him a 4 or 5 year deal.

Instead, we're debating about him as a surprise/steal signing. 

If his head is screwed on straight and the Twins see what there is to fix, and believe they have a real plan to get him back to his "normal" self, I'm on board with this idea. I'd just like to have a 2nd year option if things go well.

He got divorced in July 2023 and then was traded from a mess of a team that still was the only major league team he had known. He clearly quit at that point. If he has a clear head, he was better at the deadline last year than arguably everyone on the Twins after Lopez and Gray. And honestly, he threw more innings and struck out WAY more than Gray had at that point too.

I'm in.

[DJL44]

30 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Had he continued on his 2023 path, and not been traded, I think we'd be hearing a lot of talk about how great he rebounded from a bad 2021 and who was going to give him a 4 or 5 year deal.

Instead, we're debating about him as a surprise/steal signing. 

Yes, because he was one of the worst pitchers in baseball the last two months of the season. When a pitcher goes from "good" to "godawful" that quick there's a 90% chance of an underlying injury. I wouldn't give him anything more than a minor league deal.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

Sonny Gray in his age 26-28 seasons: 4.59 ERA, 4.20 FIP

Lucas Giolito in his age 26-28 seasons: 4.43 ERA, 4.39 FIP

You don't have to look very far to see why it is unwise to assume a pitcher's "best years are behind them" because of a mild mid-career lull. The Reds decided not to make that assumption with Gray after his tough age-28 year in NY and they got an All-Star who received Cy Young votes for their faith.

I can cherry pick guys that got worse.....what evidence/belief is there this one will work out? Do they USUALLY get better (I don't know, hence the question)?

[Mike Sixel]

I'm really surprised how many people like this idea. Are we trying to win the WS, or win this division?

[FilthyMogwai]

If Giolito is the answer, just let one of - or a combination of - the young guys have it. 

Then use the money to find some hitting help. Giolito is not good.

 

 

[FilthyMogwai]

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

I was actually surprised a couple weeks ago when I looked up his 2023 numbers. While he wasn't having any sort of career season, all of his numbers were actually quite good while in Chicago. I had been under the misguided assumption his whole season had been a disaster. Nope.

In 21 starts, 121 IP, he had a .379 ERA and 4.43 FIP, and 118 ERA+ with 9.7 K per 9 and a 1.223 WHIP.

Had he continued on his 2023 path, and not been traded, I think we'd be hearing a lot of talk about how great he rebounded from a bad 2021 and who was going to give him a 4 or 5 year deal.

Instead, we're debating about him as a surprise/steal signing. 

If his head is screwed on straight and the Twins see what there is to fix, and believe they have a real plan to get him back to his "normal" self, I'm on board with this idea. I'd just like to have a 2nd year option if things go well.

Okay, then how do you explain 2022? 

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

Sonny Gray in his age 26-28 seasons: 4.59 ERA, 4.20 FIP

Lucas Giolito in his age 26-28 seasons: 4.43 ERA, 4.39 FIP

You don't have to look very far to see why it is unwise to assume a pitcher's "best years are behind them" because of a mild mid-career lull. The Reds decided not to make that assumption with Gray after his tough age-28 year in NY and they got an All-Star who received Cy Young votes for their faith.

Haha, yes, cherry picking is very fun and you're good at it.  Now list out the 1000s of pitchers who declined on a similar trajectory after a late 20s "lull".  

Hey, maybe Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy are due for a late career renaissance!  It would be pretty "unwise" to assume otherwise right?  

 

[DocBauer]

28 minutes ago, FilthyMogwai said:

Okay, then how do you explain 2022? 

Explain what exactly? The guy had a poor 2022.

In 2019, '20, and '21 he was a top of the rotation starter and got Cy Young votes. 

He stunk in 2022.

Through 21 starts for a bad Chicago team in 2023 he was throwing well, just not quite as good as that previous 3 year stretch.

But because he had a poor 2022 and a bad 2 months to end 2023 going through a breakup and being moved twice in 30 days means he can't bounce back at 29yo to be the guy he was in 19/20/21/most of 23? Is that the point?

[Greglw3]

How about a pitcher that has gone 25-6 over the last two seasons with an ~ 3.25 two year ERA. Michael Wacha makes more sense to me.

[chaderic20]

I'd be fine with taking a shot on Giolito, but not at $20m. I don't think I'd go higher than $15m. Maybe tack on a $20m team option with $2m buyout or something, or at 150 innings the option vests or the buyout jumps to $5m. He's still guaranteed $17m, and if he bounces back we get rewarded with another year at a reasonable price for taking the risk, and he can still retry free agency at age 31.

[FilthyMogwai]

2 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Explain what exactly? The guy had a poor 2022.

In 2019, '20, and '21 he was a top of the rotation starter and got Cy Young votes. 

He stunk in 2022.

Through 21 starts for a bad Chicago team in 2023 he was throwing well, just not quite as good as that previous 3 year stretch.

But because he had a poor 2022 and a bad 2 months to end 2023 going through a breakup and being moved twice in 30 days means he can't bounce back at 29yo to be the guy he was in 19/20/21/most of 23? Is that the point?

You tell me. You're the one making excuses for the guy. He's been garbage for the past two seasons.

[DocBauer]

16 minutes ago, FilthyMogwai said:

You tell me. You're the one making excuses for the guy. He's been garbage for the past two seasons.

Wow! Just.....wow!

[FilthyMogwai]

1 minute ago, DocBauer said:

Wow! Just.....wow!

Yeah, I agree. Stating that Giolito isn't awful because he had relationship issues and couldn't handle being traded and they should still sign him because these things are in the past is very "Wow". 

Twins should avoid.

 

[jorgenswest]

19 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

If Giolito fizzles, Varland is there and ready to fall back on. That's kind of the whole point of my premise here. The Twins have enough SP depth (if they're confident in Paddack, which I am) to take a bit of a gamble on a high-upside FA. Other teams who need more of a sure thing could shy away from Giolito, which gives MN an advantage potentially. 

I agree with depth.

Are you at all concerned that they might stick with the Giolito plan even through a prolonged struggle? The depth may not matter if he keeps getting the ball.

[TopGunn#22]

No single move should be analyzed in a vacuum.  I would agree with those who still see an upside in Giolito despite the horrible stats the last 2-3months of the season.  I see a pitcher who is young (29) durable (threw 185 innings last year) and strikes guys out (over one K per inning).  Adding Giolito is NOT like adding Dylan Bundy, J.A. Happ or Chris Archer.  

I'm not interested in him if it's a one-year, $20 million dollar "prove it" contract.  I WOULD be interested if I could get him for 3 years and $36-$39 million.  Every year, starting pitching gets more and more expensive.  And in this off season a LOT of teams are going to be looking for it.  I'd rather have a 29 y/o Giolito than Maeda.  I'd rather have a deep and dominant bullpen with Varland in there for at least 2024 and Giolito throwing 180-200 innings for my rotation.  

But Giolito only makes sense if the Twins bring in another SP who is a clear #1 or #2 to pair with Pablo Lopez.  The Twins were winners last year because of PITCHING.  Bringing in a Corbin Burnes through a trade or an Eduardo Rodriguez as a 2nd F.A. is necessary to build a deep and talented rotation and bullpen for 2024.  

Giolito only makes sense if you can get him on a bargain 3-year deal to take advantage of his age 30, 31 and 32 seasons.  He's a buy low with high upside candidate.  Making him your "centerpiece" F.A. acquisition isn't a good plan.  He should be a complimentary guy with the upside to be a steal.

It's not in the Twins M.O. to sign TWO (much less one) free agent pitchers.  So it's time for the Twins to change their usual way of doing business.  The Twins have a window where they could be pretty dominant in the A.L. Central for the next 5 years.  But even though the uncertainty of the future TV deal is hanging over them, they shouldn't be cutting payroll.  They should be arming themselves to be a playoff team for the foreseeable future.   

[Major League Ready]

42 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I'm not interested in him if it's a one-year, $20 million dollar "prove it" contract.  I WOULD be interested if I could get him for 3 years and $36-$39 million.  Every year, starting pitching gets more and more expensive.  And in this off season a LOT of teams are going to be looking for it.  I'd rather have a 29 y/o Giolito than Maeda.  I'd rather have a deep and dominant bullpen with Varland in there for at least 2024 and Giolito throwing 180-200 innings for my rotation.  

A 1 year $20M deal would look a lot better with a 2nd year team option.

[Minny505]

On 11/7/2023 at 8:26 AM, DJL44 said:

I would rather try to find a pitcher who wasn't godawful first.

On 11/7/2023 at 8:28 AM, Parfigliano said:

No thanks.  Giolito isnt a Sonny Gray replacement. He's 5 steps backward.

On 11/7/2023 at 10:35 AM, weneedneshek said:

I'm not completely opposed but it would have to be a depth signing that occurs in addition to a Gray replacement and it would have to be no more than $10-12 million on one year

Seems like Twins Daily members are going to be floored when Giolito signs a deal for an AAV that is just a few million less than what Sonny Gray gets. 

I would guess that the fanbase seeing the Twins largely handle the former Cy Young contender so many times over the years has caused some freezer burn on their view of his value. 

[Minny505]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

A 1 year $20M deal would look a lot better with a 2nd year team option.

I don't think 1/20 will get it done regardless. Maybe 1/25.

And any contract he signs (sort of) has a team option built-in with the QO.

[Original_JB]

Off the board to the Red Sox; 2 years $38.5M with an opt out after the 1st year.