Is a Comeback on the Horizon for Joe Ryan in 2024?

[Cody Pirkl]

Joe Ryan had an uneven 2023 season. After being one of the best pitchers in the AL in the first half, he was a completely different pitcher down the stretch. Where does he go from here?

Joe Ryan's struggles are easy to summarize. In the first half of the season, he threw 107 innings with a 3.70 ERA and allowed 16 homers. In the second half, he threw 54 innings with a 6.09 ERA while allowing 16 homers in about half the time. It would be easy to say he needs to give up fewer homers, but the trick for Ryan is to find out how to achieve that goal.

The knock on Joe Ryan throughout his minor league career was that he was too fastball-heavy and bound to be homer-prone. Through two seasons, this has proven to be true. Ryan still throws his fastball over half the time. While it's still a unique pitch that induces swings and misses, it's hard to deny that, as the league has seen it multiple times, they've found a way not to be fooled. 

Luckily, Ryan and the Twins have worked to add variety to his repertoire. First, in 2022, it was the sweeper, and in 2023, a split changeup became his second most used pitch. These different pitches have added different layers to Ryan's pitch mix for opposing teams to worry about, but neither has yet to emerge as a dominant offering thus far. Ryan was known to use almost purely fastball in the minors, so it's unsurprising that he hasn't picked up a new grip and immediately found a wipeout secondary.

Pitching is always a work in progress, and Joe Ryan may be playing catchup when it comes to his offspeed pitches. Fortunately, Ryan and the Twins are investing plenty of resources into his development.

Ryan spent time last offseason at Driveline, and things were paying off significantly during the first half. The facility helps pitchers tweak pitch characteristics and general mechanics, and another offseason of Ryan working to develop his offspeed stuff under their guidance can only help. They'll likely tweak the pitches he already has. They may even work on adding another. We may have to wait until the spring to find out.

In addition to pitching specific endeavors, Driveline also works with players to help them physically get in the right place to endure a 162-game season. Health is an underrated factor for Joe Ryan headed into 2024. His dominant first half seemed so long ago, and many fans forget that the real turning point in his season was a groin injury that sent him to the IL. He was never the same after that point.

It's reasonable to say that Ryan's injury had much to do with his sharp decline in the second half. He had a clean bill of health throughout his professional career before his IL trip in 2023, and the hope is that the injury was just a blip on the radar. He'll have a typical offseason to prepare for another grind in 2024, and Driveline may also assist in this. 

Joe Ryan will never be Sonny Gray when it comes to suppressing homers, but the degree to which he allows the long ball will determine what level of success he finds moving forward. His first half in 2023 wasn't smoke and mirrors. He was a dominant pitcher even as he continued to find consistency in his offspeed pitches.

The hope is that further development and returning to good health can help Joe Ryan return to form and be the mid to high-end starting pitcher the Twins need. It's possible that Joe Ryan doesn't just return to form but has another level to reach. 2024 will tell us a lot about him.

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[Guest]

One word, Joe:  yoga

 

[Linus]

Comeback implies he had a bad year. I think people have gotten ahead of themselves with Ryan. To me he is a #3-4 starter and there is nothing wrong with that. If expectations are that he is going to be a 2 then you will likely be disappointed. 

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

Comeback implies he had a bad year. I think people have gotten ahead of themselves with Ryan. To me he is a #3-4 starter and there is nothing wrong with that. If expectations are that he is going to be a 2 then you will likely be disappointed. 

Id say he is more a #4-5 starter.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Minderbinder said:

One word, Joe:  yoga

And breathe through your eyelids.

[tony&rodney]

Twins fans might have gotten a little spoiled this year with the starting pitching. Ryan has been a really good #3-4 starting pitcher. Like another guy still pitching, Ryan had a great first half followed by a rough second half. I'm pretty sure there a pile of teams that would love to have Ryan on their roster. Did Ryan run into an injury problem that he didn't exactly deal with correctly? Yes. There are ways for Joe to improve his pitch offerings and sequences. I believe he will.

[weitz41]

Nonsense. Not every outing is going to be outstanding. Relax enjoy how lucky we are to be able to root for our team and Joe Ryan at the same time.

Did I miss something? Did we win the division and a playoff series? 

I get the who, what, where, when and why part of it but jeez. Let's TRY and look to better things in the future. Single game tickets, Beers and hot dogs still need to be purchased. 

[Aerodeliria]

He is one of the least of the Twins' problems...

[joefish]

Joe Ryan will never be Sonny Gray? What?

[arby58]

Joe Ryan isn't a big problem, granted, but the question is whether you can rely on him in a really big game. Maybe the groin injury is the story of his second half of 2023, but it is telling that he has been trying to expand his pitch repertoire: the author is right, a starting pitcher throws a lot of pitches, so batters have a better opportunity to adjust, even if that one pitch is stellar. The key for Ryan is making one of those other pitches a plus pitch. If he can, maybe he could be more than a #3-ish starter. If not, it's highly doubtful.

[miracleb]

1.   Right now Ryan can be a solid #4-5 starter on a good team.
2.  There is almost always the expectation that a younger pitcher can move up from a #4 starter to a #2 starter.
3.  I think his high, 92mph fastball is not going to translate into anything more than a #4-5 starter.
4   Going to Driveline will hopefully add speed to that fastball
5   The splits after the groin injury have me encouraged that he can be more than a #4-5 starter!

[saviking]

Does anyone know which of his pitches were getting hit out of the park. Was it concentrated to one pitch? 

 

Is it me, or did Ryan's problems start after he through that 9 inning gem? He was unhittable that day ..

[Cody Pirkl]

21 hours ago, Linus said:

Comeback implies he had a bad year. I think people have gotten ahead of themselves with Ryan. To me he is a #3-4 starter and there is nothing wrong with that. If expectations are that he is going to be a 2 then you will likely be disappointed. 

He had an ERA above 6 in the second half. I'll bet you the Twins and Joe Ryan himself would say he needs to bounce back from that. 

[Cody Pirkl]

17 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Twins fans might have gotten a little spoiled this year with the starting pitching. Ryan has been a really good #3-4 starting pitcher. Like another guy still pitching, Ryan had a great first half followed by a rough second half. I'm pretty sure there a pile of teams that would love to have Ryan on their roster. Did Ryan run into an injury problem that he didn't exactly deal with correctly? Yes. There are ways for Joe to improve his pitch offerings and sequences. I believe he will.

That's basically what this article says, not sure who's spoiled for suggesting this?

[Cody Pirkl]

10 hours ago, joefish said:

Joe Ryan will never be Sonny Gray? What?

Sonny Gray allowed 8 homers all year. Joe Ryan is never going to suppress the long ball at that rate

[Doctor Gast]

Hopefully, Driveline will also add to his effeciency. But I think his injury had a lot to do with his fall off, I beleve that stat shows it. IMO he was pushed a little too much because of the push to extend SPs, which contributed to his injury. He still pitched a lot of quality innings but if he were controlled a little more he'd have more. That said IMO he'll have a much better year.

[TopGunn#22]

The rate at which he gives up HR's and the fact that he's been trying to find a secondary pitch other than a fastball for years, and one that tops out at 94 mph and only occasionally at that means I'd be tempted to sell high on him.  He overuses the pitch and it gets him in trouble.  I'm not convinced he can take the next step.  I've mentioned this before, but he's only one year YOUNGER than Corbin Burnes.  ONE.

If Craig Counsel leaves as Brewer manager and with Woodruff set to miss all of 2024 with Tommy John surgery, the Brewers may decide to break things up.  The only negative to Burnes is cost.  He's going to be paid like a former Cy young Award winner.  The attraction of Ryan is also COST.  He's got a couple years before he's going to get paid.  If the Twins would ever be in a position to afford TWO aces at the top of their rotation it would be 2024 with the youth movement in full swing.

Ryan has a higher value on Baseball Trade Values only because he COSTS less.  Ryan will never be a stud like Burnes.  If I could trade Ryan for Burnes and get young OF Garrett Mitchell in addition I'd do it in a heartbeat.  A rotation with Burnes and Lopez at the top would be outstanding.  Getting a young OF like Mitchell could allow the Twins to part with Kepler and Polanco, continue the youth movement and further improve the roster with what you get back in the trades.  Plus, the savings of trading Kepler and Polanco ($20+ million) could pay for most of what it would cost to extend Burnes.   

It would be selling high on a pitcher like Ryan.  Something we all discussed in a previous "Sell High" or "Sell Low" thread we had.  

[David Maro]

He relies on his fastball up in the zone too much.It starts out at 93 to 94 and is 90 to 91 with a high pitch count in the 4th inning.Every team knows it and fouls off pitch after pitch.I do think he did fall off after the 9 inning game against the Red Sox.He still has a lot to learn about pitching.

[Aerodeliria]

The key is of course the learning curve. I just have confidence that he can make adjustments and become better and better. His fastball has good movement (usually). As he gains confidence with his other offerings that will only help him to become better.

[PatG]

I say add bulk through the weight room.  Yoga is fine, but I believe you need something to work with first (ie "old fat dude who turns it into muscle").

The added bulk will help his velocity and make the secondary pitches better.

[Trov]

His decision to try to pitch through his groin issue was a problem.  I really hope he works on a sinker or 2-seam fastball that he can throw low in the zone.  Part of the issue with Joe is he needs to throw his fastball up to be effective, because it does not drop as much as normal fastball if he gets it up most guys pop it up and not drive it, as long as at top of zone.  However, if he throws it more waist to thigh high it gets crushed.  Also, if the pitch starts low, normally it is an offspeed pitch, so guys were able to ID pitch based on location.  If he can work on the fastball or something with speed down in zone just to keep hitters honest will go a long way. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

It would appear that some patience would be in order with Joe Ryan.  He had an absolutely outstanding first half of the season, followed by injury and some struggle.  Let him start the year healthy and see if he can stay that way.  If he does, I'm willing to bet he will be just fine (Sonny Gray 2023 fine?  Who knows?).  Fans with short memories are forgetting that he was recently the opening day starter because he was the best we had at the time.  Now that the rotation has been beefed up, there are others who have taken that mantle and we are suddenly worried that he is a #3 or #4 or #5 (even barely!).  It's not a black and white world with pitchers, and somewhere in those shades of grey lies Joe Ryan.  He's at Driveline working at pitches trying to keep improving and I think he will be a very worthy member of the rotation going forward. 

[EGFTShaw]

Without trying to offend anyone, the article title is completely misleading.

JRyan is entering his 3rd full year.
He messed up not revealing his injury, but what competitive athlete hasn't done that.
He works hard at improving, as is at Driveline now with Pablo.

He is more than 4-5.  He will be at least a 2.  Why do I say this, go back to last season when Rocco wanted to pull him out of his best game and Joe had the same fire you see from other really good pitchers.  It is a drive.  An attitude.

So, let's try to make our article titles better have a bit more respect for the intelligence of the Twins Daily Followers.

[farmerguychris]

I don't think the term 'comeback' is accurate.  When he was healthy he was an above average starter.  Keep him healthy, he'll be fine again.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

At worst, he is a solid #3.  Stop panicking.

[twinsfan02]

On 10/28/2023 at 7:43 PM, weitz41 said:

Nonsense. Not every outing is going to be outstanding. Relax enjoy how lucky we are to be able to root for our team and Joe Ryan at the same time.

Did I miss something? Did we win the division and a playoff series? 

I get the who, what, where, when and why part of it but jeez. Let's TRY and look to better things in the future. Single game tickets, Beers and hot dogs still need to be purchased. 

Didn't get to a world series in a very winnable AL. Shouldn't just be happy with winning one series every year.