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Joe Ryan's struggles are easy to summarize. In the first half of the season, he threw 107 innings with a 3.70 ERA and allowed 16 homers. In the second half, he threw 54 innings with a 6.09 ERA while allowing 16 homers in about half the time. It would be easy to say he needs to give up fewer homers, but the trick for Ryan is to find out how to achieve that goal.
The knock on Joe Ryan throughout his minor league career was that he was too fastball-heavy and bound to be homer-prone. Through two seasons, this has proven to be true. Ryan still throws his fastball over half the time. While it's still a unique pitch that induces swings and misses, it's hard to deny that, as the league has seen it multiple times, they've found a way not to be fooled.
Luckily, Ryan and the Twins have worked to add variety to his repertoire. First, in 2022, it was the sweeper, and in 2023, a split changeup became his second most used pitch. These different pitches have added different layers to Ryan's pitch mix for opposing teams to worry about, but neither has yet to emerge as a dominant offering thus far. Ryan was known to use almost purely fastball in the minors, so it's unsurprising that he hasn't picked up a new grip and immediately found a wipeout secondary.
Pitching is always a work in progress, and Joe Ryan may be playing catchup when it comes to his offspeed pitches. Fortunately, Ryan and the Twins are investing plenty of resources into his development.
Ryan spent time last offseason at Driveline, and things were paying off significantly during the first half. The facility helps pitchers tweak pitch characteristics and general mechanics, and another offseason of Ryan working to develop his offspeed stuff under their guidance can only help. They'll likely tweak the pitches he already has. They may even work on adding another. We may have to wait until the spring to find out.
In addition to pitching specific endeavors, Driveline also works with players to help them physically get in the right place to endure a 162-game season. Health is an underrated factor for Joe Ryan headed into 2024. His dominant first half seemed so long ago, and many fans forget that the real turning point in his season was a groin injury that sent him to the IL. He was never the same after that point.
It's reasonable to say that Ryan's injury had much to do with his sharp decline in the second half. He had a clean bill of health throughout his professional career before his IL trip in 2023, and the hope is that the injury was just a blip on the radar. He'll have a typical offseason to prepare for another grind in 2024, and Driveline may also assist in this.
Joe Ryan will never be Sonny Gray when it comes to suppressing homers, but the degree to which he allows the long ball will determine what level of success he finds moving forward. His first half in 2023 wasn't smoke and mirrors. He was a dominant pitcher even as he continued to find consistency in his offspeed pitches.
The hope is that further development and returning to good health can help Joe Ryan return to form and be the mid to high-end starting pitcher the Twins need. It's possible that Joe Ryan doesn't just return to form but has another level to reach. 2024 will tell us a lot about him.
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