Internal Options to Replace Sonny Gray

[Cody Christie]

Sonny Gray was among the American League’s most valuable pitchers during the 2023 season. Here’s how the Twins can use internal options to replace his value on the 2024 roster.

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

Sonny Gray walked off the mound in Game 3 of the ALDS with his head down. The Twins had returned to Target Field with a chance to take the series lead. Instead, Gray allowed more home runs than any other game this season. It was a disappointing end to what was likely his last appearance for the Twins.

Gray turns 34 next month, and he’s reaching free agency for the first time. The Twins will make him a qualifying offer that amounts to a one-year deal of around $20 million. He will decline the offer, and the Twins can receive draft pick compensation if he signs with another team. Gray told reporters that money isn’t the only factor in his search, but he wants to be fairly compensated. It seems unlikely for the Twins’ front office to give Gray a multi-year deal, so the focus turns to replacing him.

The Twins aren’t magically going to find a starting pitcher who will produce a five WAR season. Instead, the team will need to piece together value from multiple players. 

Chris Paddack
Paddack returned from Tommy John surgery in the season’s final weeks and showed some tremendous stuff in a bullpen role. Some pitchers can struggle with their command after arm surgery, but Paddack filled up the strike zone and utilized all his pitches, including an increased use of his changeup. He will likely have an innings limit in his first full season back from surgery, but the Twins managed Kenta Maeda well this season. Paddack won’t be in the running for the Cy Young like Gray was this season, but he should fit nicely into the middle of the rotation and add value the Twins didn’t get in 2023.
Potential Value: +2.0 WAR

Joe Ryan
Ryan’s sophomore season was a tale of two halves. Before the All-Star Break, Ryan posted a 3.70 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and a 124-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 107 innings. His second half was marred by a groin injury that he tried to pitch through with some disastrous results. In 11 starts (54 2/3 innings), he posted a 6.09 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP while surrendering 16 home runs, the same amount he allowed in the first half in half as many innings. According to rWAR, Ryan provided less value to the Twins than Brock Stewart, Emilio Pagan, and Bailey Ober. The Twins can get more value from Ryan if he can spread his first-half totals over the entire season.
Potential Value: +1.0 WAR

Bailey Ober
Ober finished third on the team among pitchers in rWAR behind Gray and Lopez, but he left other value on the table. He started the season in St. Paul, making four starts before joining the Twins rotation. At the end of August, the Twins sent him back to Triple-A to give him time off, and he made one additional start at that level. There is no question that he would have provided more value to the Twins if those five starts came at the big-league level. Next season, there should be fewer concerns about Ober’s workload after he threw over 170 innings for the first time in his career. He deserves to be in the Twins rotation coming out of spring training, and he might have a chip on his shoulder after the way he was used this season.
Potential Value: +0.5 WAR

Other Options
The Twins will also have other internal options to complete the back end of the rotation. Louie Varland was fantastic in his transition to the bullpen at the end of the season. Minnesota might be tempted to leave him in that role, but that likely won’t happen to start the year. He should get the chance to start and earn the fifth spot in the rotation out of spring training. Despite struggling through different parts of the 2023 season, Simeon Woods Richardson is another intriguing option. He posted a 4.91 ERA at Triple-A with a 1.50 WHIP in 113 2/3 innings. Woods Richardson was nearly five years younger than the average age of the competition at his level, and St. Paul has proven to be a hitter’s park. He won’t begin the year in the rotation, but he should factor into the equation later in the year. 
Potential Value: +1.0 WAR

There is also a potential for the Twins to go out and add another starting pitcher through free agency or a trade. Many were surprised by the Twins adding Lopez last winter when the rotation seemed to have five viable options. Minnesota’s front office values depth, and the team’s younger pitchers might need more time at Triple-A. 

How do you think the Twins will replace Gray? Do they have enough value with their internal options? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[DJL44]

They might be able to replace him in WAR in the aggregate but it will be extremely difficult to replace his performance above the average pitcher. That was a tremendous season from Sonny Gray. That said, I don't even expect Gray to repeat his 2023.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

You aren't going to replace him, but there are potential big league starters on their way up.  Ryan and Ober are already penciled in to the rotation, Paddack is the logical first choice to take that slot.

[tony&rodney]

The only way i see the Twins covering Sonny Gray's loss is through a trade. The uncertainty of a good media deal is likely to restrict any looks at free agent pitchers, including Gray. Like a previous comment mentioned, perhaps the sum of Ryan, Ober, Paddack, Varland, Woods Richardson, and Festa does an adequate job of filling in for Sonny Gray. Falvey has his work cut out for him. 

[Nashvilletwin]

My take away from this article is that there are essentially no internal options to adequately replace Gray.  The rotation next year starts with Lopez (a clear #1), Ryan and Ober (decent #3’s). Paddack, who could be a #2, #3 or #4 in terms of performance, will be the fourth starter and we will need to see how many innings he can put up over the course of the season.  Varland and SWR and others are going to be our spot starters when injuries and needed rest invariably call.

So there is a gaping hole for an innings eating #2-#3 type who will need to be acquired from outside the organization. The good news is we have either the trade capital or cash - depending on whom we want to keep - to make that happen.  Quite honestly, a bit of an over pay for Gray on a two year deal would be ideal. He fits our need perfectly and likes it here presumably.  It shouldn’t be that hard to get done. 

[Brandon]

If Gray finds he would prefer to be here and is willing to sign a 3 year deal at just under market value.  The Twins should try to find a way to sign him.  The Twins need to find a starter anyways for depth.  If for no other reason.  Our current rotation has no contingency.  Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland, and Paddack.  In case of injury we have Festa and Woods-Richardson.  That’s a big drop in ready and available talent.  The initial starting 5 is solid.  
 

The real question is what will the Twins get in TV revenue next season and will that deal come together in time for the Twins to be able to sign a good pitcher. Varland or Paddack could start the season in the pen as a multi inning reliever/ 6th starter in waiting if we are able to resign Gray and that will do wonders for our depth in the rotation.  
The path to resigning Gray comes down to trading Polanco and the Twins securing revenue from TV and The Twins pre selling lots of tickets after their playoff wins.  While there is a TV revenue issue,  the Twins did get a nice windfall from their 4 home playoff games with Im sure 160,000 people in attendance for what is likely 20-30k in extra revenue and an extra 5-10 million in profit that can go back into payroll.  While at this point it doesn’t seem like we can resign Gray.  It’s not too often the Twins find 2 aces that want to be here.  I hope they find a way to make it happen.  The good news is if we can’t find a way to afford Gray,  we can get by with a strong 6th and 7th starter find.  
 

[roger]

I remain hopeful that Gray's replacement is Gray!

Am hopeful the Twins are talking to him these next couple weeks and are able to sign him to a nice extension.  If not, they will likely do the QO.  Have read several times over the summer that he has thought about whether he wants to continue pitching.  If that is true, would he accept the QO and pocket $20M for one more year?  Could he be at the beginning of several years where he is happy with a one year deal which would enable him annually to decide whether he wants to continue pitching or spend more time with his family and sons?

[Byrdman]

I wonder if we can get Gray for 3yr/66mil deal. He is worth more, but who knows. It would be great to get him back but understand whey we don't. 

[Karbo]

43 minutes ago, Brandon said:

If Gray finds he would prefer to be here and is willing to sign a 3 year deal at just under market value.  The Twins should try to find a way to sign him.  The Twins need to find a starter anyways for depth.  If for no other reason.  Our current rotation has no contingency.  Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland, and Paddack.  In case of injury we have Festa and Woods-Richardson.  That’s a big drop in ready and available talent.  The initial starting 5 is solid.  
 

The real question is what will the Twins get in TV revenue next season and will that deal come together in time for the Twins to be able to sign a good pitcher. Varland or Paddack could start the season in the pen as a multi inning reliever/ 6th starter in waiting if we are able to resign Gray and that will do wonders for our depth in the rotation.  
The path to resigning Gray comes down to trading Polanco and the Twins securing revenue from TV and The Twins pre selling lots of tickets after their playoff wins.  While there is a TV revenue issue,  the Twins did get a nice windfall from their 4 home playoff games with Im sure 160,000 people in attendance for what is likely 20-30k in extra revenue and an extra 5-10 million in profit that can go back into payroll.  While at this point it doesn’t seem like we can resign Gray.  It’s not too often the Twins find 2 aces that want to be here.  I hope they find a way to make it happen.  The good news is if we can’t find a way to afford Gray,  we can get by with a strong 6th and 7th starter find.  
 

I don't understand why so many want to get rid of Polo. He is a good hitter and one of the best clutch hitters on this team. He has a very reasonable contract by todays standards and plays a decent 2nd base. He is known as a team player. Just the kind of player a team wants!

[Karbo]

47 minutes ago, roger said:

I remain hopeful that Gray's replacement is Gray!

Am hopeful the Twins are talking to him these next couple weeks and are able to sign him to a nice extension.  If not, they will likely do the QO.  Have read several times over the summer that he has thought about whether he wants to continue pitching.  If that is true, would he accept the QO and pocket $20M for one more year?  Could he be at the beginning of several years where he is happy with a one year deal which would enable him annually to decide whether he wants to continue pitching or spend more time with his family and sons?

I can't imagine Gray would accept the QO. He wants to test free agency. If history tells anything, its that some club will over pay with a longer term than reasonable. The question will be if he wants to play for that team in that city? 

[nicksaviking]

Last year I was more than happy filling out the rotation with the internal options, but then they traded for Lopez and it was the best move they did all year. 

They've traded for Odorizzi, Maeda, Gray, Paddock, Mahle and Lopez to be mid-to-top of the rotation arms. I don't care if it's via trade again or free agency, but it would be weird if they didn't go it again after it clearly paid off last year.

[Teddy]

16 minutes ago, Byrdman said:

I wonder if we can get Gray for 3yr/66mil deal. He is worth more, but who knows. It would be great to get him back but understand whey we don't. 

I just don't think Gray is worth that kind of dough to the Twins. Yes, he had a nice season, but 22 mil a year can go a long way toward patching up some other holes, especially when it seemed like he outpitched his recent history and is at that age when regression can be expected. I'd rather they make the qualifying offer and take the first-rounder. 

[pierre75275]

I think that Kenta may be resigned b4 Gray. I truly don't think he will be back, and signed Kenta allows 5 solid options in the rotation with the possibility of Varland in the pen.

[bigdave]

Counting on Paddack is a fool's way to ruin. He won't stay healthy for a full season. Thinking he will, and that he'll be anywhere near good enough to replace Sonny Gray, is foolishness. Bringing back Maeda would be helpful, if we can get the 2021 version.

[Nine of twelve]

13 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I don't understand why so many want to get rid of Polo. He is a good hitter and one of the best clutch hitters on this team. He has a very reasonable contract by todays standards and plays a decent 2nd base. He is known as a team player. Just the kind of player a team wants!

These qualities also make him very tradable. Arraez fetched a valuable and needed player. If our infielder contingencies are covered Polanco (possibly as part of a package) could do the same.

[Twinkies are for eating]

Prove to us that you are serious about postseason baseball. Twins did nothing at the deadline, which was ok to not get robbed for prospects. But they need to add a starting pitcher. Gray will be gone and I’m fine with not paying a 34 year old who relies on location and off speed pitches. Go get Blake Snell. You have the available funds. Also need a bat. Is Kepler back? I’d pass. One good year every third season just doesn’t cut it. This team showed us that can knock off the Astros. We just need to hit. And replace Gray with a pitcher with better stuff. My guess is neither of these two wishes comes true and Thalvey and Levine will try to promote from within. 

[DJL44]

42 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I don't understand why so many want to get rid of Polo. He is a good hitter and one of the best clutch hitters on this team. He has a very reasonable contract by todays standards and plays a decent 2nd base. He is known as a team player. Just the kind of player a team wants!

He's also injured all the time (games played of 80 and 104 the last two seasons) and bad at defense. Plus, he's lost his starting infield job to Julien.

[RpR]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

He's also injured all the time (games played of 80 and 104 the last two seasons) and bad at defense. Plus, he's lost his starting infield job to Julien.

Julien is a gaping hole in defense which is why he was not the regular 2nd baseman, and was replaced for defense purposes.

[DJL44]

12 minutes ago, RpR said:

Julien is a gaping hole in defense which is why he was not the regular 2nd baseman, and was replaced for defense purposes.

Julien started more games at 2B than anyone else. He was the regular 2B.

[RpR]

Just now, DJL44 said:

Julien started more games at 2B than anyone else. He was the regular 2B.

And he was pulled for defense regularly so that is NOT a regular 2nd baseman; Polanco was on IL, for a lot of that time.

He is a gaping hole in defense.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I'm in favor of keeping Polanco but I don't think "gaping hole" is a fair description of Julien's present defense and particularly not of his potential future defense. He started out as pretty far below average defensively, worked very hard on his defense, and I think he improved to basically average at second base by the end of the year. Given his purported work ethic, I suspect he will work very hard in his defense in the off-season. I don't see any reason that he can't improve his defense to be above average in the near future.

I think sometimes we make judgments on people's abilities at a relatively early stage in their career when there are many opportunities for improvement. Julien's defense is one of those areas. I think his defense will improve and be better next year. Now, his bat may regress as is the case for Wallner, Jeffers, Castro, Larnach, and Lewis, or it may improve for some or all of them with decreased strikeout rates. I think we need to keep Polanco because we know what is, he can play basically average defense at least 2B or 3B (I suspect he could play 1B as well), and he is one of our better clutch hitters/RBI guys. I think we should keep him although I am open to trading him if we can put together a package for a #2 types starter to replace Sonny Gray. I don't think that's possible without really sacrificing good prospects, which I am not in favor of doing at this stage of this teams build, so I'd like to keep Polanco.

[DJL44]

28 minutes ago, RpR said:

And he was pulled for defense regularly so that is NOT a regular 2nd baseman; Polanco was on IL, for a lot of that time.

He is a gaping hole in defense.

He's not good defensively, but he WAS the regular 2B in 2023. I don't expect Polanco to be healthier or better at defense in 2024 so I don't really see him as a challenge to Julien as the 2024 starter. Polanco would be a $10M backup infielder who can be expected to play 80 games.

Of course, none of this has anything to do with replacing Sonny Gray unless you're talking about reallocating Polanco's $10M toward a starting pitcher.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Here is how you prepare to replace Sonny.  1.  You resign him.  We have that option, and if he performs anywhere close to the last 2 years you will likely get a surplus on the deal.   I acknowledge you are giving up a a 1st round pick likely in the 33-35 pick range.  I am fully a big draftnik guy, but I can see the value in resigning Sonny.  You have to expect some regression to the mean,  even still I see him giving 6-7 WAR over 3 years.  

2. Paddack-  honestly he looks more dominant in a couple innings than Gray.  Considering he likely doesn't still have full command what he did in the playoffs was amazing.  Now the Twins expect the velocity to dial back to 95 mph,  however,  that will be nasty especially with additional sweeper and better pitch sequencing.  

3.  Make sure you have 6-7 pitching options for next year.  You do that and will give you enough pitching depth through out the year and relief options. 

I am leaning more and more to resigning Gray as I just don't see any other player that would be willing to sign with us from the top group.  3 years with a tiered down salary for 60 to 70 million would be reasonable.  Now will Sonny see that as reasonable and how competitive will that be with other teams.  

If you can get the deal done though,  I really like a top 5 rotation of Lopez, Paddack, Gray, Ryan and Ober.  That will be heads and shoulders above what many other teams will be throwing out there.  Gives you Varland, Festa, SWR as potential fill in options, or Varland can move full time to the bullpen and you pick up another pitcher to swing between AAA and MLB.  

The other option would be to trade one of your pitching prospects likely Soto and try to replicate another Sonny Gray situation.  Knowing you have the ability to pick up another high school pitcher in the 2024 draft it would effectively be be swap and less salary.  It really comes down to how much the Twins like Soto and whether a team with a controlled Pitcher would like Soto.  I think the Twins will get an additonal pitcher, whether signing one or trading for one.  I just think how well the pitching depth worked for the Twins this year that they will try to do it again.  I also think some Pitchers may be willing to take a pillow deal to see if the Twins can fix them.  Think someone like a Giolito, although personally I think he is declining rapidly.  

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, bigdave said:

Counting on Paddack is a fool's way to ruin. He won't stay healthy for a full season.

I think this is the cold splash of reality, yes. It was great he came back for the playoffs, but the last time I took a look at pitchers who tried to come back from two Tommy John surgeries, it wasn't a pretty sight. I'll hope for the best, but a lot of question marks are already piling up on 2024's door. 

[Brandon]

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

I don't understand why so many want to get rid of Polo. He is a good hitter and one of the best clutch hitters on this team. He has a very reasonable contract by todays standards and plays a decent 2nd base. He is known as a team player. Just the kind of player a team wants!

I don’t want to get rid of Polanco.  It’s the 10 million in his contract and the available replacement in Lee.  I prefer to keep both Gray and Polanco but would keep Gray because we don’t have the same level of replacements as we do with Polanco.

[tony&rodney]

26 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I'm in favor of keeping Polanco but I don't think "gaping hole" is a fair description of Julien's present defense and particularly not of his potential future defense. He started out as pretty far below average defensively, worked very hard on his defense, and I think he improved to basically average at second base by the end of the year. Given his purported work ethic, I suspect he will work very hard in his defense in the off-season. I don't see any reason that he can't improve his defense to be above average in the near future.

I think sometimes we make judgments on people's abilities at a relatively early stage in their career when there are many opportunities for improvement. Julien's defense is one of those areas. I think his defense will improve and be better next year. Now, his bat may regress as is the case for Wallner, Jeffers, Castro, Larnach, and Lewis, or it may improve for some or all of them with decreased strikeout rates. I think we need to keep Polanco because we know what is, he can play basically average defense at least 2B or 3B (I suspect he could play 1B as well), and he is one of our better clutch hitters/RBI guys. I think we should keep him although I am open to trading him if we can put together a package for a #2 types starter to replace Sonny Gray. I don't think that's possible without really sacrificing good prospects, which I am not in favor of doing at this stage of this teams build, so I'd like to keep Polanco.

I agree that the Twins need Polanco due to his presence and ability to score runners. The offseason debates will often look to toss Polanco, Kepler, and Farmer with the goal of distributing the money elsewhere. I'm believe that experience and depth are important. 

Julien was a near average defensive player in September. By his own words he was hesitant and too cautious on every ball when he arrived to MLB. He still has a long way to go, defensively, in my opinion but one must acknowledge the improvement of his glove. Despite his horrendous start, even the metrics used improved dramatically month over month. 

There is a possibility that Polanco may be a part of a large trade for a starting pitcher. The Arraez-Lopez trade sure ignited a torrent of anger on Twins Daily. Anything can happen with pitchers and trading young established or very promising players is always going to cause some disagreement, especially when an acquired pitcher goes down with TJ or a shoulder injury. Still, I'm thinking there are a couple of possibilities where a fairly dramatic trade can happen. The players who cannot be discussed are: Royce Lewis and Walker Jenkins. Jenkins has a chance to be a star. Lewis is a draw and he has created interest to a degree that I don't see the Twins considering him in any transaction. There are a pile of other names I do not want to see sent away in a trade, but if the right pitcher is available  Falvey needs to listen. One thing that seems clear is that the Twins have both infield depth and needs. 

Sonny Gray deserves a large contract, if only for the time he suffered in New York. I cannot see any chance he returns as a Twin, and so the Twins have their work cut out for them in finding ways to replace his production.

 

[Unwinder]

Last year prior to the Lopez trade, we had Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Maeda, and Ober lined up for the rotation, and that seemed pretty good.

In my mind, this year's rotation looks about the same as that, with Lopez stepping into the Gray role of proven good arm. Paddack stepping into the role of Mahle as a guy with great potential but a lot of injury question concerns, Ryan and Ober both occupying the Ryan role with no clear Maeda equivalent, and Varland being a rough equivalent to Ober at this time last year. Guy who could stick but has yet to prove himself.

I'd say next season's rotation looks about the same quality as last season's rotation did at this time a year ago with Lopez looking better than Gray did at that time, Varland looking shakier than Ober did at that time, and one less big injury question mark with Maeda not necessarily in the plans. 

I think the front office is definitely going to be shopping around the trade market, and there will probably be a trade.

[RocRedWing]

I like the idea of internal development. If they can mold Julien into the starting 2B with some solid leather, I'd be okay moving on from Polo.

[roger]

4 hours ago, Karbo said:

I can't imagine Gray would accept the QO. He wants to test free agency. If history tells anything, its that some club will over pay with a longer term than reasonable. The question will be if he wants to play for that team in that city? 

Expect you haven't seen the numerous reports during the year where he talked about needing to decide if he wanted to continue playing.  Most that I recall were in the Strib and usually included a discussion about his wanting to spend more time with his young children.  If those are true, there is a real possibility he may want to take it one year at a time.  In that case, taking a $20M QO might fit with what he wants to do.

[Unwinder]

Also, I think it's fair to wonder if Minnesota might be a more attractive free agent pitching destination than in years past, since the pitching staff seemed to have been able to get the most out of the pitchers this year.