Are the Twins Closer to a World Series?

[Cody Christie]

Only one team ends the year on a high note, with 29 others dealing with the agony of defeat. After a successful season, how close are the Twins to a World Series run?

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Everything didn't go perfectly for the Twins during the 2023 season, but there were some positive signs by the season's end. The team's playoff losing streak is over, and the fanbase doesn't need to focus on losses that happened in the past. Instead, the team will turn its focus to 2024 and beyond. So, are the Twins any closer to winning a World Series title compared to one year ago?

Rocco Baldelli was clear in his post-game comments that he believes the Twins are ready to take the next step. "The team is hungry in a way that I don't think we probably even were before. You get a taste of something like this, you show this to people, what this looks like and what it is. We're not that far from playing in the World Series."

Rookie Trio
One reason for optimism with the Twins is the young core of players that established themselves during their rookie season. Minnesota became the first club since 1930 to have three rookies with an .830 or better OPS. Royce Lewis showed why he was considered one of baseball's top prospects by hitting .309/.372/.548 (.921) with 15 home runs and seven doubles in 58 games. His offensive output continued into October, where he became the first Twins batter since Kirby Puckett to have four home runs in the same postseason. Lewis wasn't the only rookie to leave his mark on the Twins. 

Matt Wallner also showcased multiple strengths during the 2023 season after being named the team's Minor League Player of the Year in 2022. In 76 games, Wallner hit .249/.370/.507 (.877) with 11 doubles, one triple, and 14 home runs. He also demonstrated a tremendous outfield arm, which can limit runners advancing on the base paths. Edouard Julien completed the Twins rookie trio and hit .263/.381/.459 (.839) in 109 games. He combined for 16 doubles, one triple, and 16 home runs with a 130 OPS+. Julien's defense at second base has improved significantly during the season, improving his projected value for future years. While these players impacted the 2023 season, other prospects are even more highly touted than this trio. 

Prospects on the Way
Brooks Lee was named the Twins' Minor League Player of the Year after reaching Triple-A in his first full professional season. He hit .275/.347/.461 (.808) with 39 doubles, three triples, and 16 home runs between Double- and Triple-A. His OPS dropped by over 100 points after his promotion, but he was over four years younger than the average age of the competition in the International League. He will be considered a top-25 global prospect entering next season. 

Lee isn't the only prospect to get excited about in the Twins' system. Emmanuel Rodriguez played the entire 2023 season at High-A, where he was over two years younger than the average age of the competition. He posted a .940 OPS or higher in four-of-six months during the season. His biggest moments came in the deciding game of the Midwest League Championship Series when he hit a grand slam that put the Kernels in front. He won't rank as highly as Lee on national lists, but he has one of the highest ceilings of any prospect.

AL Central and Playoff Picture
The AL Central also provides an opportunity for the Twins to make the playoffs regularly in the coming years. Both Chicago and Kansas City finished with over 100 losses, and neither has a clear winning window in the immediate future. Cleveland was the team the Twins competed with for most of the season, but they fell apart down the stretch and finished ten games below the .500 mark. Detroit showed some positive signs in the second half to finish at 78-84, including some young players moving in the right direction. However, the Twins should be the AL Central favorites entering next season.

MLB's playoff structure allows for upsets, and the best regular-season teams can struggle in October. Minnesota finished with a worse record than Toronto, who plays in a tougher division, but the Twins managed to sweep the Blue Jays out of the playoffs. Arizona was the last team into the NL playoffs, and they have swept their way into the NLCS. Anything can happen in the postseason, so the Twins must put themselves in a position for the playoffs and hope they can find some magic. 

Baseball is a funny game that can be hard to predict. Baldelli is right to look at this club and believe in the future. A World Series run isn't out of the question, but many things need to go right for that to happen. Baseball is a funny game that can be hard to predict. Do you believe the Twins are closer to a World Series title? What must they add to the roster to make that dream a reality? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Brett]

I think we’re just a Buxton away. And not the hurt DH variety, but the XBH-robbing, base-stealing, did-you-see-how-far-he-hit-that Buxton that we know is in there.

[twinfan]

We are fortunate at this point to be in a relatively easy division. But to take the next step will depend on what happens during the off-season. Will we sign a big bat? Will we keep the key pitchers and/or sign another? Will the kids coming up be for real? Can we stay away from major injuries? And, finally, do players want to come here to play?

It was a great season and a nice improvement. Let's go and take another step forward.

GO TWINS!

[saviking]

We have a pretty full roster right now especially if we re sign Gray. Biggest questions are:

Where to put Lee

Does Gray resign

Centerfield

Who are we going to let go or trade

Do we add an quality arm or two to the bull pen. 

[Eris]

The Twins as a team need to consistently take quality at bats to advance to the next level. I don’t remember the exact numbers, but in a radio broadcast it was mentioned that the Twins lose about 2/3 of the games where the have more than 10 Ks. 

[Whitey333]

I think the future looks good.  Now let's just hope the FO doesn't mess it all up.  Go Twins

[The Mad King]

Replacing Sonny is not going to be an easy task. Pablos contact didn't exactly break the bank, maybe they can do something similar?

A bounce back by Miranda (at first) would be a great stroke of luck. 

Castro & Taylor both over produced. I'd bring Taylor back. 

Can Lewis stay healthy for a full season? 

Bullpen help. 

I'd love to be optimistic but that's a lot of ifs for the off-season and I haven't even mentioned the bullpen. Until now. 

 

*Oops. I already mentioned the bullpen 

[terrydactyls]

30 minutes ago, saviking said:

We have a pretty full roster right now especially if we re sign Gray. Biggest questions are:

Where to put Lee

Does Gray resign

Centerfield

Who are we going to let go or trade

Do we add an quality arm or two to the bull pen. 

Your first and third questions can be answered by moving Lewis to CF and putting Lee at 3B.  Second question:  offer Gray to a 5-year, $100M contract that is front loaded and has team options after years 2, 3, and 4.  If he rejects the offer, put the QO on him and get a draft pick.  As for the off-season, I got nothing 

[IaBeanCounter]

I believe that the key for 2024 will be the health of our starting pitching.  This season only Mahle went down with a serious injury and Ober made the most of that opportunity.  With no FA signings the Twins have Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack and Varland.  Much better than 2022, but with very little depth.  

[Blyleven2011]

They need to add and subtract players and coaching ... 

 

I love baseball and want quality killer instinct baseball  , take the field and play hard ( the games against Toronto in the playoffs i thought was the 2 best games they played all year through each nine inning games ) , a killer instinct was showing there ,  as they put away Toronto in 2 straight games  , still the hitting  suffered to score crooked numbers but pitching was very good  ...

We need better contact hitters (the strikouts were maddening , strikeouts on close pitches looking was even worse ) , better coaching is needed for  the players at identifying  pitches and laying off balls out of the zone ( sure you can be fooled once in awhile but with some more patience they can be better hitters ) ...

Scoring runs and hitting in the clutch is the name of the game  ...

I'll say it again , when was the last time we had any team player  have 100 rbi's  or score a 100 runs , it's been some years , hitters just haven't been productive enough  ...

Send them all to drive line for some different coaching voices ,  we need professional hitters ...

We have made some progress in the second half of 2023 towards building a better lineup  but again I will say a killer instinct is needed , determination and patience  , hope the playoffs gave the players more confidence for next year  ...

Play to win and run away with the division  , everyday take the field and feel confident  that you can beat anyone , baseball is a mental game  ... 

[Lartwinfan]

The improvement was a team effort of course, but the pitching was the key. One of the oldest axioms in baseball is “Good pitching beats good hitting.” 
Go Twins!!

[LastOnePicked]

I agree with what others have said: the hitting side of the game just isn't ready yet for a long playoff run. When you make around 50% of your outs without even putting the ball in play, you have little else to do but hope for the long ball. In the playoffs, the pitchers you face are much less likely to make a mistake pitch.

2024 could be rough. They'll likely be missing a #2 starter, and a large segment of the lineup is due for a sophomore slump. The hope is that Correa is healthier, but I think we have to start admitting that Buxton is out of the picture. Are Lewis, Julien and Wallner ready to elevate their game? Can Jeffers sustain his success? Can Kirilloff ever get a clean shot at a healthy season? Because to go further, you're going to need all of them at or near peak performance.

I think we're a lot further off from a WS than most fans think at this point. The weaknesses that were exposed in this Astros series may be difficult to fix in just one offseason. Not sure if there's any payroll flexibility either. But, here's hoping that the hunger inspires a strong returning team in 2024.

[sabeck]

The Twins won't win a WS much less get to one under the philosophy the FO has about baseball.  You'd think the Guardians would have taught them about pitching last year.  Let your starters pitch.  They are your best pitchers.  Let them pitch.    The Twins still don't do that nearly enough. The bullpen is not meant to be the mainstay of the staff. And to read in the Strib this morning that Falvey believes that "fewer strikeouts doesn't win more games in the playoffs." Well, as they just learned, more strikeouts (14 in each of games 3 and 4) doesn't win more games either.  They take way too many pitches and they can't just swing for the fence.  They look at the stats they like to justify their position.  As the wise man once said, there are lies, lies, and statistics.  They can believe what they want, but these two philosophies on pitching and hitting do not win more ball games.  Too bad too because the talent on the team is at an all-time high.  

[1985Fan]

To get to the next level the strikeouts have to decrease, especially in scoring opportunities. Have to be able to put the ball in play to move runners and keep innings going.. Also would to see hitters hit the ball the other way instead of trying to pull everything. Not sure the hitting coach is the right person to make changes, and I doubt the FO will admit their mistake. 

Bring in a veteran hitter that doesn’t, SO to lead the way. Solano was doing that early in the year, but he dropped off at the end. His age doesn’t bode well for a recovery, so find a hitter to fill that role.

They need a #2 starter to replace Gray. Paddock looked very good in a really short sample, but has durability issues. Unless Gray is willing to sign a one year deal, I wouldn’t bring him back. Houston showed that good teams figure him out. Sign or trade for a quality starter. 
 

Durability issues in the BP also. Can they rely on Stewart all season? What to expect from Alcala? Is Balazovic able to contribute, can Headrick be effective, what happened to Moran? Lots of BP questions to answer. They have the closer, just have to find reliable arms to bridge the gap from starter to closer. 
 

[Mark G]

14 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

I agree with what others have said: the hitting side of the game just isn't ready yet for a long playoff run. When you make around 50% of your outs without even putting the ball in play, you have little else to do but hope for the long ball. In the playoffs, the pitchers you face are much less likely to make a mistake pitch.

2024 could be rough. They'll likely be missing a #2 starter, and a large segment of the lineup is due for a sophomore slump. The hope is that Correa is healthier, but I think we have to start admitting that Buxton is out of the picture. Are Lewis, Julien and Wallner ready to elevate their game? Can Jeffers sustain his success? Can Kirilloff ever get a clean shot at a healthy season? Because to go further, you're going to need all of them at or near peak performance.

I think we're a lot further off from a WS than most fans think at this point. The weaknesses that were exposed in this Astros series may be difficult to fix in just one offseason. Not sure if there's any payroll flexibility either. But, here's hoping that the hunger inspires a strong returning team in 2024.

Unfortunately, I must agree.  We were built this year for a 2 out of 3 series against comparable competition.  Guess what?  We got it.  After that.........well, not so much.  We showed when we have to go 3 deep with starters it fades, and the pen has to come in too many times; sooner or later one or two will be off (see Thielbar), and that is the ballgame.  (by the way, I love Thielbar)  Our bugaboo the whole first half was not scoring (3 runs or less in close to half the games in the first half), and 4 of the 6 playoff games was just that.  Winning the division is doable for the foreseeable future, but October?  I just don't know.  

Just an observation:  look at the 100 plus win teams this year (and bear with me here).  It was a lot more than just pitching.  Atlanta had 8 players with over 500 plate appearances.  The Dodgers had 5 with over 550 plate appearances, and 3 more in the low to high 400's/  Baltimore had 4 over 560, and 3 more over 450. (Tampa, as well, for that matter).  The twins had Correa with 580 and no one else in the 500 or more range.  They put their best players on the field and let them carry the club.  We have the philosophy that everyone needs to play equally, and everyone gets at bats regardless of position (which is why we have so many utility players).  That plays well in the AL Central, but not in October.  World Series?  I don't see it with this FO and coaching staff, and who are we kidding?  They are one in the same.  I hope I am wrong, and I hope we are playing on this date in '24, but I won't place any bets just yet.  

[T.O.]

The Twins may be in a position to be a weak first place contender into the future but until they can score runs without relying on home runs they will be a perpetual post season loser.

[tony&rodney]

The history of baseball since divisional playoffs has shown there is room at the table for teams that win anywhere around 90 games in the regular season. I would add that 90 victories is an excellent year.

The 1987 Twins were much bigger underdogs in the playoffs than the 2023 Twins. Atlanta, Los Angeles D, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and Milwaukee all are done for the year. Toronto won more games than Minnesota.

There are a host of challenges to going deep in the playoffs. I'm hoping the Twins make some changes via trades or add a player or two via free agency, but another trip to the playoffs would be wonderful.

Who had Arizona beating the Dodgers? Until someone defeats the Astros in a series they remain the best team in baseball. 

[Dennesey55347]

When your RBI leader in each of the last 2 seasons reached a paltry 66 RBI, runs leader wasn't much higher, and you K rate lands in the record books, the WS isn't remotely within reach. You need at least a few big, productive bats pitchers rightfully fear and a mostly disciplined lineup. Everyone on the roster is at best a tier 2 hitter. Only Lewis might be tier 1 with enough qualified plate appearances. Pitching this year 100% qualifies as a WS contender.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Lartwinfan said:

One of the oldest axioms in baseball is “Good pitching beats good hitting.” 
Go Twins!!

I believe Mr Stengel's quote was "Good pitching will always stop good hitting, and vice versa."

 

[ToddlerHarmon]

I think those worried about the offense need to recognize how much it improved in the second half. We can break it down to improved Kepler, returned and productive Polanco and Kirilloff, more time from Jeffers, and the arrival of Lewis, Julien, and Wallner (and actually improvements from each of them over the course of the year). That's almost the whole lineup, and speaks to good coaching.

The other part of the improvement was less time from Gallo, Buxton, Taylor, and Vazquez.

So for those looking for the offensive cure, we say goodbye to Gallo and Taylor, hope for healthy Buxton and Correa, and keep Vazquez in a half-time-at-best role. And pick up the options on Kepler and Polanco

With all that, there is still probably a need for more at first and in center. Re-sign Solano? Hope for more from a healthy Miranda? Bring up Martin? Any of these options is happily a high-contact hitter, to help balance the free swingers. Based on this year, where crowding the roster worked wonderfully, I'd say the answer is yes to all of them.

In any case, the second half, and the playoff run, should earn some trust in the coaches and front office to keep this thing going

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, sabeck said:

The Twins won't win a WS much less get to one under the philosophy the FO has about baseball.  You'd think the Guardians would have taught them about pitching last year.  Let your starters pitch.  They are your best pitchers.  Let them pitch.    The Twins still don't do that nearly enough. The bullpen is not meant to be the mainstay of the staff.

I don't know why the narrative doesn't die, but it needs to.  Twins relievers pitched the 4th FEWEST innings in the majors in 2023.  Starters pitched the 4th MOST; they were 7 innings across the entire season from overtaking Seattle for top honors. 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

I believe Mr Stengel's quote was "Good pitching will always stop good hitting, and vice versa."

Yes, but the reverse is also often true.

[JD-TWINS]

6 hours ago, twinfan said:

We are fortunate at this point to be in a relatively easy division. But to take the next step will depend on what happens during the off-season. Will we sign a big bat? Will we keep the key pitchers and/or sign another? Will the kids coming up be for real? Can we stay away from major injuries? And, finally, do players want to come here to play?

It was a great season and a nice improvement. Let's go and take another step forward.

GO TWINS!

We played Baltimore tough over 2 series. We beat the Rangers 5 of 7……we beat the Astros 4 of 6 ……..played the Jays & Mariners even. Boston & NY had no advantage. We had core guys hurt for big chunks of the year & still won our Division.

The “we can only compete because we’re in the Central” is bologna!!

[Karbo]

I assume it will be Paddack in the #2 spot which is pretty good!

[Karbo]

5 hours ago, mrzippy said:

The Twins may be in a position to be a weak first place contender into the future but until they can score runs without relying on home runs they will be a perpetual post season loser.

IMO a much better 2 strike approach could make a big difference. I'm not saying become contact hitters, let it rip until there's 2 strikes, then shorten up a bit.

[Karbo]

6 hours ago, Mark G said:

Unfortunately, I must agree.  We were built this year for a 2 out of 3 series against comparable competition.  Guess what?  We got it.  After that.........well, not so much.  We showed when we have to go 3 deep with starters it fades, and the pen has to come in too many times; sooner or later one or two will be off (see Thielbar), and that is the ballgame.  (by the way, I love Thielbar)  Our bugaboo the whole first half was not scoring (3 runs or less in close to half the games in the first half), and 4 of the 6 playoff games was just that.  Winning the division is doable for the foreseeable future, but October?  I just don't know.  

Just an observation:  look at the 100 plus win teams this year (and bear with me here).  It was a lot more than just pitching.  Atlanta had 8 players with over 500 plate appearances.  The Dodgers had 5 with over 550 plate appearances, and 3 more in the low to high 400's/  Baltimore had 4 over 560, and 3 more over 450. (Tampa, as well, for that matter).  The twins had Correa with 580 and no one else in the 500 or more range.  They put their best players on the field and let them carry the club.  We have the philosophy that everyone needs to play equally, and everyone gets at bats regardless of position (which is why we have so many utility players).  That plays well in the AL Central, but not in October.  World Series?  I don't see it with this FO and coaching staff, and who are we kidding?  They are one in the same.  I hope I am wrong, and I hope we are playing on this date in '24, but I won't place any bets just yet.  

While I agree with most of what you said, I do think the experience that Ryan and Ober had should have them better prepared if they get there again. Same with Wallner. The other 2 rookies, Julian and Lewis did just fine.

[D.C Twins]

7 hours ago, saviking said:

We have a pretty full roster right now especially if we re sign Gray. Biggest questions are:

Where to put Lee

Does Gray resign

Centerfield

Who are we going to let go or trade

Do we add an quality arm or two to the bull pen. 

1. Second base (Polonco trade)

2. No he does not

3. Martin

4. Polonco, Gray headliners but more

5. Yes

[D.C Twins]

8 hours ago, Brett said:

I think we’re just a Buxton away. And not the hurt DH variety, but the XBH-robbing, base-stealing, did-you-see-how-far-he-hit-that Buxton that we know is in there.

That Buck is never coming back unfortunately ....

[Guest]

6 hours ago, Mark G said:

Just an observation:  look at the 100 plus win teams this year (and bear with me here).  It was a lot more than just pitching.  Atlanta had 8 players with over 500 plate appearances.  The Dodgers had 5 with over 550 plate appearances, and 3 more in the low to high 400's/  Baltimore had 4 over 560, and 3 more over 450. (Tampa, as well, for that matter).  The twins had Correa with 580 and no one else in the 500 or more range.  They put their best players on the field and let them carry the club.  We have the philosophy that everyone needs to play equally, and everyone gets at bats regardless of position (which is why we have so many utility players).  That plays well in the AL Central, but not in October.  World Series?  I don't see it with this FO and coaching staff, and who are we kidding?  They are one in the same.  I hope I am wrong, and I hope we are playing on this date in '24, but I won't place any bets just yet.  

And yet all the teams you named, Atlanta, Dodgers, Baltimore, and Tampa didn't make it any farther that the Twins.

[alexlegge]

2 things to learn from the Astros and past Twins teams (they didn't get everything wrong for those 19 years):

 

1. Sometimes the most effective hitting instructors can come in the form of veteran bats. Michael Brantley was far more cost-efficient than George Springer for the Astros and came with a lengthy track record of above-average at-bats and an ability to get on base...sort of a poor man's Joe Mauer. Yet also the type of guy that can help younger hitters grow. Similarly, remember how Nelson Cruz helped unlock Miguel Sano's talent for 4 months in 2019? A crafty veteran presence with good-not-great production can go a long way.

 

 

2. This postseason shed some light onto a key part of playoff success - recognizing the guys that can get it done when the lights shine brightest. It seems like there are three types of players in terms of World Series potential:

a) guys made for the postseason (Lewis, Correa, Lopez, Julien...and most of the Astros lineup)

b) guys made for the regular season (Clayton Kershaw is probably the least controversial example)

c) everybody else (most of MLB)

I don't care about everybody else that much...though anyone can theoretically switch between these types over time. But the Twins need to be extra cautious with the 'a' group...and on the lookout for expendable guys in the 'b' category. We should be extra greedy with championship-caliber talent...more so than we have been in the past! Case in point: Eddie Rosario, Sir Streaky during the regular season, has consistently demonstrated a knack for coming up big in big moments. He did that on the Twins (2017 WC game, many late-game heroics) *and* the Braves. 

 

 

Note that Jose Abreu, a name that should sound painful right now, is a good example of both of the above points.